Lucky1's NFL 2017 Campaign

[Lucky1g]

I’m not locking these in yet. Will wait until game day for additional info to finalize wildcard wknd plays.

Initial leans
Bill+9 ( I’m a Bills fan. Yes I am waiting for latest news on shady. But I tell you what, this team is over achieving and BILLieving right now in a way I’ve never seen. Mind you I’ve watched Bills teams seasons crash and burn since 1999. This one is different. McDermott has brought an attitude of toughness and confidence to a very cohesive locker room. Don’t underestimate these live dogs on Sunday...weather reports are colder than normal for Floridians on Sunday but will feel balmy and warm to Buffalionians hardened by this 0 degree weather we been having in western New York.

Falcon+7 (too many points for the new comers to the scene, versus the experience and pride Falcons have from last year)

Rams Under(outdoor games between high scoring teams when vegas sets line above 47, is very strong under situational/wary of the weather, not sure on this one because a big factor imo in these outdoor unders is inclement weather...LA is usually sunny and warm...we’ll see

Saints Over (dome playoff games going over at a 70+ % clip dating back to 2003)

[Ryermkd]

I went with Rams But I think you're right lucky, got -6.5 though...

Honestly think Bills are a shoe in ATS, but they really should win. I was just a little kid back in 1999 haha hardly remeber it. Rob fkn Johnson eh bud.

[Lucky1g]

Oh yeah, 1999 wade Phillips bills head coach. Doug Flutie came out when California kid Rob Johnson got hurt. Flutie takes western New York by storm and guided Bills to playoffs..they even named a cereal after him. Anyone remember Flutie Flakes? ...the Ol Wade Phillips uses poor judgment benches Flutie and starts a healthy Rob Johnson in the Playoffs...kiss it goodbye...18 years later..

[Lucky1g]

Titans+8.5

[Lucky1g]

After further review: I am going opposite both my original ‘leans’...I guess that’s why they’re called leans..Rams will play well and both teams will score on each other. Rams offense too many ways to beat you, falcon offense too inconsistent to trust..

Rams-5.5

Rams & Falcons OVER 48

[Lucky1g]

Shady will play, not sure of effective he will be..Jags key players all ready to roll..Bills offense will struggle

[Renegades]

Good luck man

I think rams and over are closely correlated plays. If the rams cover it should go over. Cant trust KC laying a big number so I think its tenn or pass

[Lucky1g]

Right. I have a Rams win 31-23 type game...Goodluck today

[Lucky1g]

Keep it nice and crispy today. -15 degrees where I live. A bit chilly...your extra crispy addition today is late breaking inside info...kidding, but it is solid IMO...I think Derrick Henry goes beast mode today and Mariotta gets the ball downfield more than we’ve seen in past few weeks. Presenting you with 2 unit play of the day. This one will find its way over, even it it only finishes on 45. 28-24 Chiefs, titans make it real interesting today...ok, full slate. Let’s do this

**Top Rated**Titans & Chiefs OVER 44.5

[Renegades]

Missed fg and two horrendous 2 pt play calls kept it under. Two throws from the two yard line with henry in the backfield on the 2 pt tries

[Lucky1g]

DHenry was gashing them at 8ypc clip...why they decided not to hand it to him on even one of the 2pt tries blows my mind. No need to get cute malarkey, pound it until they stop you! ...and of course the Buckner FG off the upright...misread the rams game, never really had a chance. That was wire to wire dirty birds and under written all over it.... I guess I should’ve trusted my instincts...as a result I had a very bad day. 1-3 -3.4. Will try to do better today

[Lucky1g]

Playoffs
1-3

Overall season
67-59 53% +8.1units
top rated 11-8 57%

[Lucky1g]

Reports say Bills Jags will be a neutral field. At least 40% Bills fans. Factor that into the usual 4points given for homefield advantage?? Also McCoy carted off field last week, in walking boot most of the week, was out on the field for very briefly for 10 minutes, and then off with the trainers this morning. “didn’t look ready to go, I would say doubtful” per Bills sideline reporter...

[Renegades]

GL today. Kc total was so frustrating. That was a 2100 swing for me. Not to beat a dead horse but if buntner makes the fg the game is 24-10 and then tenn would not have even gone for 2. Kc play calling after the muffed punt was awful. Thats why you cant trust the chiefs. They were playing for a fg and it backfired. They ran the ball on first down, a screen on 2nd down and a rb out pass on 3rd down. The 3 plays lost 2 yards total and they ended up with a 48 yard attempt. They started that series at the tenn 29

My gut tells me the bills game goes over. Jax will score on buffalo

[Lucky1g]

Even if Shady goes, likely will be ineffective. Backup Marcus Murphy(who???) will get lions share of carries. Yes he has fresh legs but he wasn’t even on the bills roster until 2 weeks ago...just thinking this through here..dont want to let my emotions of being Bills fan get in the way of logic. If Buffalo doesn’t win the turnover battle they will lose by DD...thing is how do you predict turnovers??

[Lucky1g]

Shadys a go. Upgraded to probable..

Bills & Jags UNDER 40

Panthers+6.5

Panthers & Saints OVER 47.5

[Lucky1g]

I have to do this. I have to bet with my head. I know how I feel and what I wrote up about the Bills earlier this week. I know the excitement in the air here in western New york(and in droves down in Jacksonville today per news reports)... I played Dolphins last week against Bills and lost..this Bills team will make you think they were a good bet for awhile..probably even cover first half#..somewhere in the second half though this should swing. If Bortles plays an average/turnover free game and Fournette gets 20 touches..Jags should be able to score enough to cover this spread. Buffalo offense will be frustrating to watch...now I switched on last nights game and it cost me going against my first instinct...and I’m switching again before kickoff...am I crazy? I will be if Buffalo wins! Yes if the Bills win I will be excited even though my bet against them was a loser..prove me wrong Bills...please....smart money I believe is on
Jags-8

[JayDr3am]

I have to do this. I have to bet with my head. I know how I feel and what I wrote up about the Bills earlier this week. I know the excitement in the air here in western New york(and in droves down in Jacksonville today per news reports)... I played Dolphins last week against Bills and lost..this Bills team will make you think they were a good bet for awhile..probably even cover first half#..somewhere in the second half though this should swing. If Bortles plays an average/turnover free game and Fournette gets 20 touches..Jags should be able to score enough to cover this spread. Buffalo offense will be frustrating to watch...now I switched on last nights game and it cost me going against my first instinct...and I’m switching again before kickoff...am I crazy? I will be if Buffalo wins! Yes if the Bills win I will be excited even though my bet against them was a loser..prove me wrong Bills...please....smart money I believe is on
Jags-8

..

i get not wagering with your heart but omg! bills +9.5 or +8.5 was arguably the GOY. noo luckyy. i couldve sworn you were going to be locked in BIG on the bills

[Lucky1g]

Missed Jags spread by a point. Surprised Jags only scored 10. Not surprised Bills couldn’t score...Bills fought hard. Playoff drought is over. Much to look forward to For Bills fans. Just need a qb...

looking forward to next weekend. Lean right away is falcons-2.5...but will see how I feel gameday before kickoff. Not Funny, but my early week initial leans i posted went 4-0...my actual gameday wagers 4-4. Ouch. That KC OVER cost me big. Would’ve been 5-3 +2.7 for a great start to playoffs.

3-1 +1.9

playoffs
4-4 50%

overall season
70-60 +10.0 units
top rated 11-8 57%

[Lucky1g]

**Top Rated**Eagles+3

Falcons & Eagles UNDER 41

Patriots-13.5

[Lucky1g]

Titans & Patriots OVER 48

[Renegades]

I hope that missed xp doesnt come back to bite phily. Atl will go for 2 if they score a td

[Lucky1g]

playoffs
8-4 67%

overall season
74-60 55.2% +15.0 units
top rated 12-8 60%

[Lucky1g]

steelers-7

jags & steelers OVER 41

saints & vikings UNDER 47

[Lucky1g]

Add

Vikings-5

[Lucky1g]

playoffs
9-6 60%

overall season
75-62 55% +13.8units
top rated 12-8 60%

[Lucky1g]

Jaguars+7.5

**Top Rated**Jaguars & Patriots UNDER 46

[Lucky1g]

2-0 +3 good start.

Philly+3

Vikings & Philly OVER 39

[hotcross]

Feels great knowing you can't lose units after the 2-0 start! Nice job

I couldn't pull trigger on JAX +7.5 but have Pats ML and Philly ML parlay.
Also on Philly +3

[Lucky1g]

Sweet 4-0 +5

playoffs
13-6 67%

overall season
79-62 56% +18.8 units
top rated 13-8 62%

[hotcross]

whoomp! there it is!

4-0 sweep *PERFECT DAY Lucky1g*

[JayDr3am]

[Lucky1g]

At this point, in this game, How do you bet against GOAT. Not going to jump on anything early...but initial thought was line too low at -5

[hotcross]

did you want responses to that question, or just thinking out loud?

[Lucky1g]

Sure feedback always welcome. How do you see it hotcross