Smitty's 2015 NFL Thread

[SmittyZ28]

I like your Patriot's play. Have a tease on them myself, amongst other wagers. BOL tonight.

You and me on the same bet = city bro Hahaha, GL on your plays too. I like that Miami O19.5, solid bet.

[SmittyZ28]

Added for week 8

6.5 tease 3 to win 5
Cincy +7.5
Denver +9
STL-2

Cincy Pick 3 to win 3 I am over invested in this game for sure but Cincy BYE week I think vegas forgot that, even though they are the Bungals, this is one of the best teams in the NFL. Big Ben coming back is a big deal for sure and Pitt has weapons on offense for days but I bet value and there is no way I cannot take an undefeated team off a BYE in a divisional game for even money to win straight up. I could see Pitt winning this one, sure, but the value makes Cincy a must bet, not to mention the teasers getting the +7.5. GL people

[goldust]

I'd worry most about Denver but that looks solid. Would definitely want Broncos +10, though not sure it's worth buying the point when it adds essentially no value to the Cincy or STL parts.

[shopbar picks]

Any feeling for the KC/Det Game

[shopbar picks]

Come on you are a way better capper. Screw the tease

[SmittyZ28]

Any feeling for the KC/Det Game

Hey ShopBar thanks for checking in man. I went back and forth on this game all week, I really liked the lions +5 I think Calvin can have a HUGE day here against on of the 1 or 2 worst secondarys in the league. Then I got to thinking about how bad both teams are and how often I avoid putting any money on Detroit. Gun to my head I would have taken the +5

Good luck today man, I am looking at additional plays now.

[SmittyZ28]

I'd worry most about Denver but that looks solid. Would definitely want Broncos +10, though not sure it's worth buying the point when it adds essentially no value to the Cincy or STL parts.

I agree, the 10 would have been better but the extra -30/40 in juice without helping the other two lines like you said was not worth it. Peyton Manning is not going to lose by double digits at home, I do not care how bad his arm is this guy will find a way to keep it close or win this game.

[SmittyZ28]

Jets -3 4 to 4.2 to win 3.9

AZ -6.5 3.8 to win 3.4

[SmittyZ28]

NO-3 3.3 to win 3

NO/NYG O50 3.3 to win 3

TB+8 3.3 to win 3

[SmittyZ28]

6-1-1 +16.2 Yesterday, big day. MNF play coming soon

Hope everyone made some $$$

[SmittyZ28]

U45.5 3.3 to win 3

Defenses combined giving up 41 points per game, rain in the forecast I will roll with the under here. Sat on it at 47, hopefully it doesn't bite. Back and forth on the line, leaning Carolina movement is causing some hesitation for me. Passing Luck with +points is a tough one for me and I think this could easily be a field goal game either way.

[SmittyZ28]

Carolina -3 1H 3.5 to win 3

Colts have been one of the worst 1st half teams in the league this year and a slow starting team for a couple. Facing weather and a tough D on the road I like this bet more than swallowing the -5 for the game

GL

[shopbar picks]

My local is 6.5 any thoughts on that line

[SmittyZ28]

Thats high man, most off shores and vegas books down to 4.5. No real key numbers between 4.5-6.5 though with the new PAT rules there have been some misses which could make 6 at least slight more of a relative number. If you are feeling strong about Carolina there really isn't much of a difference between 4.5-6.5 Hopefully I am making sense.

[shopbar picks]

Yep thanks, much appreciated

[shopbar picks]

Really appreciated the input. Line coming down. My local not budging I ended up taking the colts. Got real lucky. Thanks

[shopbar picks]

Let's go pick some teams. Hope all is well. But let's go

[TDKJET1717]

Let's go pick some teams. Hope all is well. But let's go

[SmittyZ28]

MY BAD! LOOOOONG few days in Vegas, still not fully recovered but had a better VIP table than Drake at the club so it was worth it... Hahaha

Back to picking winners
Jets-2 3.3 to win 3
O42 3.3 to win 3
Both parlayed 1.5 to win 3.9

Jets have some injuries here and are not as healthy as Buffalo. I see the Rex angle a bit but even with the injuries the Jets are a more talented team and at home for under 3. Mangold is coming back which means we should see Ivory get back on track. Fitz has been playing well, I have to roll with the home team here. Jets win at home and lose to Buffalo away week 16.

GL people

[shopbar picks]

Oh good just a bender. Glad you're ok. Bol

[chief42]

Right Picks. Same old Jets

[SmittyZ28]

Wow my mobile didnt post, sorry guys

For tracking purpose I went Jax +4.5 and O47.5 as well as GB-10 on the 1pm

4pm booked

AZ+3 looking at other plays

[SmittyZ28]

Right Picks. Same old Jets

Jets not getting into the end zone that game....Brutal

[chief42]

3 units on each?

[SmittyZ28]

Yes 3.3 to win 3 on each, bought the hook on GB so 4 to win 3

Really liking the Broncos at 3/3.5

[44 Mag]

Wow my mobile didnt post, sorry guys

For tracking purpose I went Jax +4.5 and O47.5 as well as GB-10 on the 1pm

4pm booked

AZ+3 looking at other plays

No play on the Pat's ???

[SmittyZ28]

Hahaha come one man, of course. the -7 is @-105 right now, hoping to get a decently juiced 6.5 and I am taking it. Also going to take the over in all likely hood

what around you on? teasing the pats and the over down or did you go straight bet?

[SmittyZ28]

I see you got the ML, no brainer there.

I am going O30 TT for the Pats for 3.3 to win 3 and theh O53.5 3.3 to win 3

[SmittyZ28]

Denver -3 4 to win 3
Pats -7 4.2 to win 3.6

[SmittyZ28]

Rough day yesterday, deserved to lose the Denver and GB games those were bets I was struggling with. Holding call on the blount TD cost us the over, TT over and a good chance the spread....ouch Survive the bad weeks to see the good ones

MNF 7pt Tease

Texans +17 O39.5

I think you could tease the spread either way here with the Bengals down to 3 and 39.5 but I will take the 17 points. Bengals have been bad off a BYE and Texans are putting some points up. Been riding Bengals hard all year but I have a a feeling Hoyer keeps this game somewhat respectable for the Texans.

Good Luck

[chief42]

Smitty when you get some time can you post the record to date so far. Thanks for posting this season, hope you continue to have success the rest of the way.

[SmittyZ28]

Smitty when you get some time can you post the record to date so far. Thanks for posting this season, hope you continue to have success the rest of the way.

Hey Chief I will update the record, just been crazy busy. Was at the BC/ND game last night, fenway as a football stadium was pretty awesome.

[SmittyZ28]

Week 10 was a disaster! Week 11 is a gift!

Plays Booked:

Nov 22 11:07 AM by: INTERNET	122714315	NFL	Nov 22 04:10 PM	STRAIGHT BET [473] KC CHIEFS -3-125 PENDING	188/150
Nov 22 11:09 AM by: INTERNET	122714951	NFL	Nov 22 01:05 PM	STRAIGHT BET [459] STL RAMS +3-120 PENDING	180/150
Nov 22 11:11 AM by: INTERNET	122715252	NFL	Nov 22 01:05 PM	STRAIGHT BET [452] CAR PANTHERS -7-105 PENDING	158/150
Nov 22 11:30 AM by: INTERNET	122720060	NFL	Nov 22 01:05 PM	STRAIGHT BET [453] TOTAL o48½-110 (OAK RAIDERS vrs DET LIONS) PENDING	165/150
Nov 22 11:40 AM by: INTERNET	122722832	NFL NFL NFL	Nov 22 01:05 PM Nov 22 04:30 PM Nov 22 01:05 PM	3TEAS FB 6, 6½, 7 NBA 4, 4½, 5 CBB 4, 4½, 5 PTS [452] CAR PANTHERS -1EV (B+6) PENDING [463] GB PACKERS +6-110 (B+6) PENDING [468] CHI BEARS +8-110 (B+6) PENDING	150/240

Also liking the Bengals more and more to cover with additional leans as well

GL People

[SmittyZ28]

Bengals +4 to win 3 units

[SmittyZ28]

4-1-1 yesterday with some nice profit. MNF Plays....

Nov 23 01:54 PM
by: INTERNET 122894539
Nov 23 08:35 PM PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
[475] TOTAL o47-110
(BUF BILLS vrs NE PATRIOTS) PENDING
[476] NE PATRIOTS -6-140 (B+1) PENDING
100/225

Nov 23 01:49 PM
by: INTERNET 122894375 NFL
Nov 23 08:35 PM
Nov 23 08:35 PM 2TEAS FB 6, 6½, 7 NBA 4, 4½, 5 CBB 4, 4½, 5 PTS
[475] TOTAL o41-110 (B+6)
(BUF BILLS vrs NE PATRIOTS) PENDING
[476] NE PATRIOTS -1-110 (B+6) PENDING
240/200