Smitty's 2015 NFL Thread

[SmittyZ28]

Hey everyone. The return of the NFL season and my annual NFL thread is upon us. T-Minus 8 Days until the season kicks off and I could not be more excited.

Great season last year going up close to +80 units between regular season and playoffs. Looking to mirror that success once again

Rules are

1 Unit= $50
Bankroll= 40 units
Pick Winners

That's about it. Looking forward to making some money with you people this year.

Cheers

Last year and Playoffs:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/3033079-smitty-2015-nfl-playoff-thread.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/2955907-smittys-2014-nfl-thread.html

[SmittyZ28]

Leans for week 1, no bets yet:

Pitt +7
AZ -2.5
TB/Tenn O41.5 (going to be some turnovers in this game resulting in points for both teams)
Oak/Cincy O43.5
STL +4

[blackHIPPY]

right there w you on those total leans

[SmittyZ28]

right there w you on those total leans

[SmittyZ28]

1 unit each on pats -7 and over 50

Good luck everyone

[SmittyZ28]

0-1-1 -1 Unit

Sunday Plays: All 1.5 unit bets
Pack Chi O48
Bears +7

KC-1
OVER 40

Colts -1 I know the Bills are much improved and they will have a good season. Anytime I can get Andrew luck and all those weapons for a point I am taking them. Straight value bet here, no other reason

Cincy/OAK Over 42.5

Looking at the totals in Denver and Dallas.

Good luck Gentlemen

[SmittyZ28]

TB TENN O40.5 1.5 units

[2daBank]

surely you looking at under in denver and over in dal?

[2daBank]

surely you looking at under in denver and over in dal?

nice day brother! guess you didnt go ahead and pull trigger on the totals tho?

[SmittyZ28]

nice day brother! guess you didnt go ahead and pull trigger on the totals tho?

Sup BANK, good to hear from you man. Nice calls on those totals last night, I stayed away I was out with a new chick and I knew I would be checking my phone if I bet hahaha. You nailed them both though, good work. Looking forward to reading your plays this year buddy. Hope you've bee well bro

[SmittyZ28]

MNF Eagles/Falcons O55

1.5 Unit play

GL People

[SmittyZ28]

Winning week last week, good way to start the season. I will update the record after tonight.

TNF 1.5 each
Broncos +3
1H U21

I think the new look Denver D is going to be a nightmare match up for the chiefs here. Considering its a Thursday, two good D's, loud stadium I think we see a tight low scoring game. I will take those points

Good luck everyone

[SmittyZ28]

YTD 5-4-1

Week 2 NFL

3 Unit Plays

Pats pick
Det Minny O43
Bungals -3 This might be my favorite line of the week, red rocket is a cover machine at home
Zona -2 I love this line as well. Bears had trouble moving the ball against a far inferior D last week AZ comes to town and will limit Forte


Good luck people

[SmittyZ28]

Added 3 Unit
Pit -6 SF short week, coming east and they looked awful and 1 dimensional during their win


2 Unit
Saint -9.5

[SmittyZ28]

Added 2 Unit

Saints TT O28

[SmittyZ28]

Added 6.5 Tease

ATL +8.5
Seattle +10
Philly PICK

3 to win 4.5

[SmittyZ28]

SD/Cincy O47.5 2 unit play

[SmittyZ28]

MNF
Pack -3 3Units
1H U24.5 2 Units

[SmittyZ28]

MNF

Colts -6 3 Units
O45

Over reaction week continues with people slamming the line from 7.5 to 6. Home opener for Luck, defense and RBs do not often win NFL games in todays league. Revis will shut down one side of the field, no Cromartie for the Jets luck will shred this defense. Prob a slow start but look for Indy to hang 30+ on this, once again, over hyped Jets D. Buffalo tough play to play, at home and in the dome Indy covers ATS close to 75% of the time.

Good luck people

[SmittyZ28]

MNF

Colts -6 3 Units
O45

Over reaction week continues with people slamming the line from 7.5 to 6. Home opener for Luck, defense and RBs do not often win NFL games in todays league. Revis will shut down one side of the field, no Cromartie for the Jets luck will shred this defense. Prob a slow start but look for Indy to hang 30+ on this, once again, over hyped Jets D. Buffalo tough play to play, at home and in the dome Indy covers ATS close to 75% of the time.

Good luck people

2 units on the total

[SmittyZ28]

Going an extra 1.5 on the colts for a 4.5 unit bet

[SmittyZ28]

TNF

Skins +3.5. 3 units
Under 23.5 1H 2 units

Good luck boys

[SmittyZ28]

2 unit tease

Skins +10 U52

2.4 to win 2

[chief42]

Smitty, what book do you use? Assuming all your plays are -110

[SmittyZ28]

Sup Chief. I use a local agent through an online service. I have been lazy on posting the juice compared to last year, he is usually on the ball with the juice compared to other books. But yes, majority are 110.

[SmittyZ28]

2 unit tease

Skins +10 U52

2.4 to win 2

this is a 2.8 to win 2, My bad

[chief42]

Skins got embarrassed last night, and their qb got exposed when the giants applied pressure. Even with that being said the skins still had a shot to cover the teaser, just didnt come through for you. On to the next one.

[chief42]

Out of curiosity how long have you been wagering on NFL besides last year? Your record last year is impressive, but I wanted to see if you were able to beat the books over a period of more than a year. Don't get me wrong, doing it last year is very hard to do, but I wanted to make sure that it wasnt just a fluke. Appreciate the plays you posted so far, gl this weekend.

[SmittyZ28]

Pitt +1.5

[SmittyZ28]

Az -7 3 unit

[SmittyZ28]

Out of curiosity how long have you been wagering on NFL besides last year? Your record last year is impressive, but I wanted to see if you were able to beat the books over a period of more than a year. Don't get me wrong, doing it last year is very hard to do, but I wanted to make sure that it wasnt just a fluke. Appreciate the plays you posted so far, gl this weekend.

Hey Chief thanks for checking in. I've only really tracked play since 2013 and I was starting a new thread every week, tough too track. I have not had a losing season yet, but only actively betting since 2012 and I rarely bet anything but NFL. Follow the plays a bit if you are concerned about tailing and see how I do, lots of luck involved GL to you buddy

[SmittyZ28]

Updated Record (Been busy on Sundays and have not tracked as well as I usually do)

Today 3-0
All 3 Units
Bills+3
PITT +1.5
Zona -7

Updated 2015 Record
15-13-1 +6.2 Units


Sunday Night Football:at
Broncos -3 -110 5.5 to win 5 units
Broncos TTO23 2.2 to win 2

Been going back and forth on this game all week. Hard to overlook the "must win" Lions here at home against a Denver team that needed miracles to beat KC. However, Denver D has allowed fewest passing yards in the league and Lions are a mess on both sides of the ball. I don't see how they pressure manning tonight with that D front, and Manning with time even at 65 years old, is dangerous. On the other side Denver D Line going to be chasing Stafford all night. Lions always lose when they shouldn't and I have made good money betting against Stafford against winning teams. Game will probably be close until/unless Stafford starts turning the ball over which he is sure to do. Lions will bring their A game but Denver is just too much better on Offense and D not to take the -3, good value there.

GOOD LUCK PPL

[SmittyZ28]

Updated Record (Been busy on Sundays and have not tracked as well as I usually do)

Today 3-0
All 3 Units
Bills+3
PITT +1.5
Zona -7

Updated 2015 Record
15-13-1 +6.2 Units


Sunday Night Football:at
Broncos -3 -110 5.5 to win 5 units
Broncos TTO23 2.2 to win 2

Been going back and forth on this game all week. Hard to overlook the "must win" Lions here at home against a Denver team that needed miracles to beat KC. However, Denver D has allowed fewest passing yards in the league and Lions are a mess on both sides of the ball. I don't see how they pressure manning tonight with that D front, and Manning with time even at 65 years old, is dangerous. On the other side Denver D Line going to be chasing Stafford all night. Lions always lose when they shouldn't and I have made good money betting against Stafford against winning teams. Game will probably be close until/unless Stafford starts turning the ball over which he is sure to do. Lions will bring their A game but Denver is just too much better on Offense and D not to take the -3, good value there.

GOOD LUCK PPL

Stafford and the Lions make it too easy, just a loser organization.

17-13-1 +13.2 units. Nice $800 day, hope everyone cashed some tickets today.

[shopbar picks]

Nice call thanks

[SmittyZ28]

MNF

Green Bay -6 5.5 to win 5

Not much to say about this game except Rodgers at home Primetime for less than a touchdown is close to an autobet for me. KC defense is not what it used to be and GB defense is improved. KC offense is better than past years but Alex Smith keeping up with the pack in GB on the big stage? I just can't see it. Efficient plays and ball movement is not going to be enough in this one. KC should score some points so I lean Over despite the fact each Defense has the talent to keep this somewhat close but looking more closely at the GB TT027. Also, tempting 6 point tease down GB to pick on Over42.5 for the game.

Good Luck PPL