Capy's NFL 2014 (back for a fourth season, for better or worse!)

[Capybara]

The tally:

Week 1: 4-2, +2 units
Week 2: 5-6, -1 unit
Week 3: 9-2, +9 units
Week 4: 5-4, +1.35 units

Total: 23-14, +11.35 units

TNF: Not confident enough in either side or in the O/U, but reasonably confident in this prop:

A. Rodgers passing yards under 290.5, -120 (1x)

Little scary fading probably the best QB in the game, but Mike Zimmer's been able to hold him down before when they played Cincy, and the Vikings secondary has played surprisingly well so far. Then you throw in the weather and the fact that I think both sides will be running it a lot tonight, or at least trying to, this looks like it has a decent shot to hit.

Decided to add Vikings/Packers u47.5, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

Ah well, 1-1, least I hit the prop. Just pissed because I loved the 2H over, but I hate changing sides while a bet is technically still alive and canceling myself out. Shoulda just gone with my gut!! Lesson learned, it's okay to change sides.

Pats +1.5, -105 (1x)

Almost wanted to wait to see if I could end up getting 3, but ah well... Listen, how often are the Pats a home dog? When have they ever gotten bitch-slapped and then not come back and looked like a different team? I realize Cincy looks like the superior team right now, but it's still Dalton on the road against Belichick, who is not gonna get out-schemed as bad as he got against Reid again. This team will be amped to make up for the egg they laid. I'll take my chances for a unit.

[Capybara]

Yikes, there's so much to get to these days between regular bets, suicide pools, fantasy... it's too intense and stressful! Do you guys remember the days when we were young and looked forward to long Sundays of just watching the games for the games??

I'm going to be adding more, but here are my locked plays so far:

Denver -7, -110 (1.5x)

Chicago +2, -105 (1.5x)

[Capybara]

And my last-minute adds (for record-keeping, obviously):

Dallas -4.5, -110 (1x)

Baltimore +2.5, +100 (1x)

Cleveland PK, -110 (1x)

Falcons +4.5, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

I never do this, but fukk it, it's my thread and I want it to be accurate. One graded wager and one pending wager that I failed to post as I've been running around. Since today looks like it may need all the help I can get, I'm throwing these in here! The Niners one will prob lose anyway. These were for a unit each.

10/5/14 4:25pm Reduced Football 472 San Francisco 49ers -4½ -107*vs Kansas City Chiefs

10/5/14 1:00pm Live In-Play Football 9460 New Orleans Saints -2½ -135*vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

[Capybara]

Oh, and added:

Denver 2H over 13.5, -155 (ouch!), (1x)

Ridiculous juice but yes, I'm chasing to get back earlier hits from all the teams I'd backed turning the fukkin ball over like it was on fire.

[Capybara]

Wow, my Pats play is looking okay... so let's wreck it now by going for more!

Pats 2H o10.5, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

No added play tonight because I'm hoping to finish this guy! (0.5x risk to win ~4.5x)

Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Win	10/5/14 4:05pm NFL Football 470 Denver Broncos -7 -135* vs Arizona Cardinals
				Win	10/5/14 4:25pm NFL Football 472 San Francisco 49ers -3½ -125* vs Kansas City Chiefs
				Win	10/5/14 4:25pm NFL Football 474 San Diego Chargers -7 -105* vs New York Jets
				Pending	10/6/14 8:30pm NFL Football 477 Seattle Seahawks -7 -110* vs Washington Redskins

[Capybara]

The tally:

Week 1: 4-2, +2 units
Week 2: 5-6, -1 unit
Week 3: 9-2, +9 units
Week 4: 5-4, +1.35 units
Week 5: 8-5, +2.65 units

Total: 31-19, +14.00 units

Not including my four-teamer I hit last week since not really tracking novelty plays in here.

For tonight:

Indy -2.5, -115 (2x)

Indy's had the better of these matchups, and I don't see why it wouldn't continue when you compare the two QBs. Luck is so dynamic, don't see HOU holding him down the whole game. Also, Indy's D is really getting better, playmakers at each level. They're vulnerable if Foster or Blue gets going, but just think that in the end they'll force some turnovers and Luck will convert them.

Leaning toward the over 46.5 (should be some turnovers and short fields) and may play it, but right now sticking w just the side.

[Capybara]

What's up, muthafukkaz? Let's continue the winning today. I'm starting with this teaser:

2-tm 6-pt teaser: Cincy -1, Buffalo +8.5, -110 (2x)

[Capybara]

2H Pitt -0.5, -115 (2x)

I see Cleve taking their foot off the gas a little + Ben usually responds and gets his team back into it.

[Capybara]

Giants +1.5, -102 (1.5x)

Giants/Eagles over 50.5, -105 (1x)

[Capybara]

[Live bet] Giants TT over 13.5, -110 (1x)

Lotttta time left to hit this.

[Capybara]

The tally:

Week 1: 4-2, +2 units
Week 2: 5-6, -1 unit
Week 3: 9-2, +9 units
Week 4: 5-4, +1.35 units
Week 5: 8-5, +2.65 units
Week 6: 1-5, -6.18 units

Total: 32-24, +7.82 units

Apologies for an embarrassing Week 6. Will try for a nice bounce-back this weekend, but don't really love the card at this moment. For tonight, I have to make this play even though it makes me extremely nervous:

Pats -9.5, -108 (1x)

Nervous about the o-line but Jets secondary is in such disarray, Brady should get his 27 points. Can the Jets surpass 17? If so, then fine, you got me.

[Capybara]

What a ridiculous bet. How did I forget that the Jets ALWAYS play close games w the Pats? Like pretty much every single time regardless of record or how they've been playing. I deserve a bitch-slap for this play. Only MLB is keeping me afloat right now, I am fade material.

[Capybara]

Starting with a teaser didn't work last week, so not sure why I'm doing it again, but guess I'm a masochist:

2-tm 6.5-pt teaser, Buffalo -0.5/Washington -0.5, -110 (2x)

[Capybara]

And last-second addition:

Panthers/Packers over 48.5, -105 (1x)

[Capybara]

2H Colts -10.5, -120 (1x)

[Capybara]

3-0, + 4 units today!!

So let's ruin it with an action play in the night game:

49ers/Broncos over 47.5, -108 (1x)

[Capybara]

Perfect Sunday, 4-0, +5 units. Can I finish off a perfect weekend? Well, sure I could, I could stop. But what fun is that?

Texans/Steelers over 44, -103 (1x)

I feel like there are tons of variations for this to hit. I won't bother to enumerate them. Bottom line is I do see there being more successful offense than seems to be anticipated for this game. And even if I'm wrong, very easy to see at least one defensive score in this one.

[Capybara]

The tally:

Week 1: 4-2, +2 units
Week 2: 5-6, -1 unit
Week 3: 9-2, +9 units
Week 4: 5-4, +1.35 units
Week 5: 8-5, +2.65 units
Week 6: 1-5, -6.18 units
Week 7: 5-1, +4.92 units

Total: 37-25, +12.74 units

I love that my Week 7 was an exact mirror image of the crap Week 6! Also an o-fer Sunday to a perfect Sunday.

I can't make a play for tonight. Unless someone would like to talk me into something. I mean the Chargers have been a great ATS team as road dogs, but this Denver offense kind of neutralizes "trends." I want to believe McCoy/Rivers can keep this close, but do they have the horses?

[Capybara]

Just a silly action play, but worth a half unit for a nice payout:

SD wins 1H; Den wins in regulation, +740 (0.5x)

Could see SD with some nice scheming to frustrate Den in the 1H, maybe ahead like 14-10, then of course Peyton solves it like he always does and Den prevails.

[Capybara]

[Live bet] Seahawks -2.5, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

[Live bet] Houston -2.5, -110 (1x)

(Was busy all weekend... Catching up w live bets, lol.)

[Capybara]

2-0 with this so far today, let's keep it going.

[Live bet] Indy -2, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

Might as well chase that one:

[Live bet] Indy +4.5, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

Oh boy. So much for today's winnings. :-/

[Capybara]

[Live bet] Browns -6.5, -110 (2x)

[Capybara]

It's the square play for me tonight, thanks:

Dallas -9, -105 (1.5x)

Yeah, division game, but I'm not seeing the Skins love. I mean I guess McCoy could suddenly be great and the Cowboys could come back to earth, but what have we seen to anticipate this? If I lose I lose.

[Capybara]

Live bet, Dallas -5.5, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

Okay, back after taking Week 9 off while I was in Vegas, baby.

In week 8 the thread went 3-5 for -1.37 units.

Total of the thread is 40-30, +11.37 units.

Feel like I'm in the minority here, but I like the Browns and I like Brian Hoyer. The poor guy had his knee torn up in his first prime time start. Think he'll be solid here in his second.

Browns +6.5, -105 (1x)

[Capybara]

It's been nice knowing you guys. All my best to you now and in the future. I am backing the New York Jets.

Jets +4, -110 (1.5x)
Jets 1H +2.5, -105 (1x)

And give me some more AFC East mediocrity:

Bills -1.5, -105 (1x)

[Capybara]

This card is a bitch, and yet I'm still making the following additional wagers:

Falcons/Bucs over 47, -105 (1.5x)

Cowboys -7, -110 (1x)

Ravens -10, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

2H Giants +7, -120 (1x)

2H Cards -6.5, -115 (0.5x)

[Capybara]

So for Week 10, looks like we're at 6-3, +2.18 units at this moment. Ehh, should be better. Really thought I had that over.

I don't love anything tonight but threw half-units around like crazy...

GB -8.5, -107
Over 53, -107
B. Marshall scores a TD, +125
A. Rodgers TD passes o2.5, -105
A. Rodgers no INTs, -115
A. Rodgers has completion o46.5 yds, -105

Good fun! Except for the ending up risking three full units part. :-/