Capy's NFL 2014 (back for a fourth season, for better or worse!)

[Capybara]

First two seasons we were happily positive; last season was annoying as hell and I abandoned ship around Week 10. Let's get this back on track!!

Week 1:

Pats -3.5, -106
Texans -3, -110
Bucs -3, -105
Vikes +2.5, +105

Unit each for now.

More to come...

Happy First Sunday of Football, and BOL to all!

[Capybara]

Just added:

Carolina regular season wins under 7.5, +100 (8x)

Anyone else play any of these and feel confident? I love this one.

[Capybara]

E. Sanders over 67.5 yards, -120 (1x)

[Capybara]

Lions -6, -110 (1x)

Basically a fade of the new system in New York. Don't see it as clicking yet. Giants D does have life, but don't see them holding down all those weapons for 60 mts.

[Capybara]

Pats -3.5, -106
Texans -3, -110
Bucs -3, -105
Vikes +2.5, +105
E. Sanders over 67.5 yards, -120
Lions -6, -110

Week 1: 4-2, +2 units.

Not a bad start. FYI, every bet I post in here is a bet made. I generally don't go too crazy with units and am just looking to be positive every week and finish the year with a nice little chunk of change. Also, discussion is always welcome, even though I realize there are also 72 other NFL threads in here, lol.

Not sure on the Thurs Night game yet but may play something. As for Sun/Mon, nothing placed yet, but leans right now on Pats to rebound, Bucs vs. troubled Rams team, and Denver to eviscerate KC.

[Capybara]

Throwing one unit at:

Ravens -2.5, -110

We all know this game is basically a coin flip, but I do like Harbaugh and Kubiak to make some tweaks and for Flacco and the offense to look sharper. They were sloppy as hell last week and still had a late lead. The D faces a challenge against that young Steeler speed, but I like this spot for them, I see this as a backs-to-the-wall, unifying kind of opportunity given the crazy shit going on.

[Capybara]

Ravens -2.5, -110

Cash another one, boys. That's 5-2 so far, thread is hitting at 71%!

Going to lock in the Bucs play I mentioned above:

Bucs - 6, -110 (2x)

Seems like a nice get-well spot for them after their disappointing opener. As long as McCown and the offense can remotely hold their own, that defense should be plenty ferocious against Austin Davis and the tragically banged-up Rams.

[Capybara]

Goddamit, I waited around to place a Pats play and now with the AP news it's gone up! Well, don't want it to go up more, so just in case, I'm getting in.

Pats -5.5, -110 (1x)

Only one unit for now with the higher line just to play it safe, but been thinking this right along. How often do the Pats lose two in a row? They were absolute ass in the second half last week, so between Brady and the hoodie, the whip is getting cracked HARD at practice. P's and Q's will be minded come Sunday. And now the Vikes just lost their best player. And Revis will be taking out their second best, Patterson. I'll probably be on the 1H too actually.

[2daBank]

Goddamit, I waited around to place a Pats play and now with the AP news it's gone up! Well, don't want it to go up more, so just in case, I'm getting in.

Pats -5.5, -110 (1x)

Only one unit for now with the higher line just to play it safe, but been thinking this right along. How often do the Pats lose two in a row? They were absolute ass in the second half last week, so between Brady and the hoodie, the whip is getting cracked HARD at practice. P's and Q's will be minded come Sunday. And now the Vikes just lost their best player. And Revis will be taking out their second best, Patterson. I'll probably be on the 1H too actually.

28-10 ats off a loss since '03 i believe.. before the ap news i was contemplating if times are changing with a aging brady and a weaker than normal oline but the news pretty much eliminated me even considering it.. i dunno if revis can shut down patterson as he gets the ball so many ways and lines up all over the place, he didnt exactly shut down mike wallace last week or even shadow him i dont believe. patterson just seems like one of those guys that 1 way or another he gonna get his. game pretty much comes down to pats protecting the old statue in the pocket, between the loss of makins and their long time oline coach they looked bad last week. i think phins pass rush better than minnys tho and again with a ats record like that im certainly not trying to argue..

[Capybara]

28-10 ats off a loss since '03 i believe.. before the ap news i was contemplating if times are changing with a aging brady and a weaker than normal oline but the news pretty much eliminated me even considering it.. i dunno if revis can shut down patterson as he gets the ball so many ways and lines up all over the place, he didnt exactly shut down mike wallace last week or even shadow him i dont believe. patterson just seems like one of those guys that 1 way or another he gonna get his. game pretty much comes down to pats protecting the old statue in the pocket, between the loss of makins and their long time oline coach they looked bad last week. i think phins pass rush better than minnys tho and again with a ats record like that im certainly not trying to argue..

You bring up some good points, Banker, no doubt, but here's how I see it: There's no aging-Brady thing, he's been sharp as fukk all spring and summer. The way he prepares his body like crazy, he's good for a few more years. He just had a sh-t game, I think partially because with the o-line breakdowns and that nasty D line (how did Wake ever get to the CFL??!), he was trying to anticipate plays a second early. Just a bad game. It's true that Scarnecchia is gone, but they just need to settle on who's gonna play where, there was too much shuffling. As for Revis, people are on him because he wasn't 100% perfect, but he was solid. No, he stayed at LCB I believe. I was just thinking that since Belichick ALWAYS takes away the #1 weapon (which is now Patterson!), it's got to be either Revis following him or bracket coverage, one or the other. Who knows, man, there are so many unknowns this early in the season -- mostly I'm just banking on their history with BB and Brady after they play a crap game (thanks for pointing out the ATS).

[Capybara]

Niners -7, -105 (2x)

Sorry, but Bears very possibly without both starting receivers and their C and LG against the Niners' front, in San Fran? Not to mention that they couldn't stop the run against Buff? Niners all day here.

[Capybara]

Adding:

Falcons/Bengals over 48.5, -107 (1.5 x)

Definitely concerned about the Falcons' o-line injuries, but think they'll still put up at least in the 20s, and the Bengals' weapons at home should def get theirs as well against an average D at best.

Pats -3, -110 (1x)

Adding a unit here because despite my concerns about line play, my gut still says they are an echelon above the Vikings, and they usually respond very strongly to weeks when they made so many mental errors.

Lions +1, -105 (1x)

I'm left with a shitty number now, but this is a fade of Cam Newton, who is rusty, dinged, and I do not believe in anyway, plus obviously the Greg Hardy thing. Yeah, Lions tend to be a different team on the road, but weapons all over the place and they're all healthy for the moment.

[Capybara]

Possible sucker bet/out-of-my-mind alert:

Giants -2, -105 (1x)

It's pretty significant going from C. Palmer to D. Stanton. And as garbage as the Giants looked (and probably more or less are), something tells me they look better today, plus the Cards are not full strength on defense right now either.

[Capybara]

Packers -2.5/Bills +6, 2-Team Teaser, +100 (2x)

First teaser of the season, not a huge fan of them but it makes sense to me here. Packers: simple math: they're better than they looked against the 'Hawks, while the Jets, though impressive, just played the Raiders. Pack need the win. As for Bills/Dolphins, I think the Dolphins have a let-down here after the big win against perennial division-winning Pats, plus they have like no linebackers now to stop the Bills run game. I like both teams to cover, but ah well, little insurance with a teaser.

[Capybara]

Not really sure how tonight is gonna go down, but I'm throwing some degen action plays at the Eagles because one way or another, I think they get theirs by the time this game is over. Losing Jerrell Freeman is pretty big for the Colts, who already don't have Mathis and just don't scare you much with their defense.

Eagles TT o26.5, -110 (1.5x)

Z. Ertz o42.5 receiving yds, -125 (1x)

Z. Ertz scores a TD, +170 (0.5x)

[Capybara]

What a fukkin joke! I try to get a fukkin TT over, and the Eagles have 206 yards already and yet call all these asshole plays when they get in the red zone and have 6 fukkin points?!?! FML.

[Capybara]

Not really sure how tonight is gonna go down, but I'm throwing some degen action plays at the Eagles because one way or another, I think they get theirs by the time this game is over. Losing Jerrell Freeman is pretty big for the Colts, who already don't have Mathis and just don't scare you much with their defense.

Eagles TT o26.5, -110 (1.5x)

Z. Ertz o42.5 receiving yds, -125 (1x)

Z. Ertz scores a TD, +170 (0.5x)

Okay, that was more like it! Nice finish. I'll tabulate the thread later, but it basically ended up a wash for Week 2. I can live with that. Back to the green in Week 3... will be back soon with thoughts.

[Capybara]

Busy day, but wanted to catch up the thread tabulation:

Week 1: 4-2, +2 units.
Week 2: 5-6, -1 unit.
Total: 9-8, +1 unit.

Exciting stuff!

And no time for writeups at the moment, but here are the plays I've made thus far for Week 3, about which I am reasonably confident, one unit each:

Giants -1, -110
Vikes +10, -110
Chargers +2.5, -105
Bengals -6.5, -103
Jags +6, -105
Steelers +3, +105

I may still add some dog MLs at the last second too, debating...

[Capybara]

Added a parlay of Skins +4/ Lions -1 for one unit.

[Capybara]

And steam just convinced me to go Raiders +14, -123 for one unit.

[Capybara]

Trying to finish an excellent day (and complete a four-teamer!) with Pitt +3.

And liking what I see here, so just tossed another unit on Pitt 2H +3, -103! Let's goooo!

[Capybara]

Giants -1, -110
Vikes +10, -110
Chargers +2.5, -105
Bengals -6.5, -103
Jags +6, -105
Steelers +3, +105
parlay of Skins +4/ Lions -1
Raiders +14, -123
Pitt 2H +3, -103

7-2, +6.5 units! Not a bad day!

Leaning Bears for tonight but going to look at it some more today.

[Ktown]

Keep up the great work, sweet week 3!

[Capybara]

Thanks, Ktown!

So yeah, gonna roll with the Bears:

Bears +2, -105 (1.5x)

Assuming the O-line can hold up, the Bears' weapons are an obvious mismatch for the Jets' back end. And even though Geno is progressing, I don't think he's there yet, and I foresee mistakes leading to points.

[Capybara]

Added a degen action play because can't see how it doesn't hit at some point:

J. Cutler longest completion ov 39.5 yds, -130 (1x)

[Capybara]

Bears +2, -105 (1.5x)
J. Cutler longest completion ov 39.5 yds, -130 (1x)

Bang! 9-2, +9 units this week!

[Capybara]

The tally:

Week 1: 4-2, +2 units
Week 2: 5-6, -1 unit
Week 3: 9-2, +9 units

Total: 18-10, +10 units

First play:

Niners 1H -3, -110 (1x)

I mean you kind of have to, don't you? No, but I do like the Niners here, as the Eagles have now lost their center, right? Making three-fifths of the starting line down for the count. Could be a good spot for that front seven to look a little more like we're used to and show some of their depth. I'll prob be on the Niners for the game too, but waiting to see if that number might drop before gametime.

Leaning Packers too... maybe I'm nuts but feel like they'll be able to run the ball this week and that will reinvigorate the whole offense. But that's a tough rivalry game and makes me a tad nervous so haven't pulled the trigger just yet. It prob goes over too, but just a lean for now for me.

[Capybara]

Okay, some plays I just made, unit each:

Bucs +7.5, -110

They've had extra time since getting humiliated in that Thursday game, and think they'll have success running it with Martin/Rainey against a banged-up Pitt D.

Packers -1.5, -105

This is mostly just my hunch that they've corrected some of the issues with the offense. Putting some faith in McCarthy here. Bears have impressed me but are pretty beat up right now. Seems like a clash the Packers can take.

Texans -2.5, -110

Once this dropped below 3, I couldn't help myself. Everyone seems to love the Bills here, but I'm just personally not seeing it.

More to come...

[Capybara]

Added:

Ravens -3, -107 (1.5x)

Just really like this team at home. They're pretty healthy too. I think Ravens are a little underrated and Panthers a little overrated right now.

[2daBank]

Okay, some plays I just made, unit each:

Bucs +7.5, -110

They've had extra time since getting humiliated in that Thursday game, and think they'll have success running it with Martin/Rainey against a banged-up Pitt D.

Packers -1.5, -105

This is mostly just my hunch that they've corrected some of the issues with the offense. Putting some faith in McCarthy here. Bears have impressed me but are pretty beat up right now. Seems like a clash the Packers can take.

Texans -2.5, -110

Once this dropped below 3, I couldn't help myself. Everyone seems to love the Bills here, but I'm just personally not seeing it.

More to come...

its more i think fitzpatrick a bum and if you force him to throw he will throw his fair share to the wrong color jersey. think bills win the ground gm and the qb forced to do less will be in good shape.. i like rest of your plays.. gl today buddy

[Capybara]

I so much want to jump on the Jets train, but I can't bear it, so looked for a teaser, and somehow this is what I came up with. Don't see Jags getting blown out today. Covering my eyes on this one though.

2-tm 6-pt teaser, Jets +6/Jags +20, +100 (1.5x)

[Capybara]

Still more!

Titans +7.5, -105 (1x)

And this weird parlay that I sort of like:

Packers 1H -0.5, Bucs 1H +5, +300 (0.5x)

[Capybara]

Live bet: SF -4.5, -125 (1x). At supermarket but think Philly is reeling. Least I hope!

[Capybara]

Niners 1H -3, -110 (1x)
Bucs +7.5, -110 (1x)
Packers -1.5, -105 (1x)
Texans -2.5, -110 (1x)
Ravens -3, -107 (1.5x)
2-tm 6-pt teaser, Jets +6/Jags +20, +100 (1.5x)
Titans +7.5, -105 (1x)
Packers 1H -0.5, Bucs 1H +5, +300 (0.5x)
Live bet: SF -4.5, -125 (1x)

5-4 today, +1.35 units. Wish I'd just left my original plays. Seems like it's often my last-minute messing around with teasers and parlays that ruins things. Oh well, still positive.

Lean Saints tonight, but not strongly enough, so figured maybe I'll try to get a better live number.

[Capybara]

The tally:

Week 1: 4-2, +2 units
Week 2: 5-6, -1 unit
Week 3: 9-2, +9 units
Week 4: 5-4, +1.35 units

Total: 23-14, +11.35 units

TNF: Not confident enough in either side or in the O/U, but reasonably confident in this prop:

A. Rodgers passing yards under 290.5, -120 (1x)

Little scary fading probably the best QB in the game, but Mike Zimmer's been able to hold him down before when they played Cincy, and the Vikings secondary has played surprisingly well so far. Then you throw in the weather and the fact that I think both sides will be running it a lot tonight, or at least trying to, this looks like it has a decent shot to hit.