TK & Stackin 2014 NFL Thread

[StackinGreen]

yup - back home on prime time; no need to overthink this one. early money agrees...[/QUO

Not sure how you can go under in that game the way the Packer offense is playing.

I agree, but 55? Jeez. The number is a clear overreaction to every game going over. The lucky overs have to stop some time

[Tommy Karate]

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hoping for this to hit 57 and then i'll hit it under....will just pay for the hook as 57 is a likely lading spot if this game finishes in the 50's.

[meader99]

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hoping for this to hit 57 and then i'll hit it under....will just pay for the hook as 57 is a likely lading spot if this game finishes in the 50's.

Anything under 60 is a bettable over. It isn't just the primetime over trend, look at the games between the Packers and Saints the last 5 years.

[meader99]

I agree, but 55? Jeez. The number is a clear overreaction to every game going over. The lucky overs have to stop some time

I was expecting this to open at 56 or 57. 54 opener was a gift.

[StackinGreen]

I guess 28-27 would fit Tommy's mold of needing 57

[meader99]

I guess 28-27 would fit Tommy's mold of needing 57

It would indeed, and funny that happens to be the exact score and lowest total of the 3 games played between the two with the current QB's leading each team. I think you need to add the fast track of the dome into the equation as well.

[Tommy Karate]

My crystal ball has 31-24 saints. Ha.

[Tommy Karate]

It would indeed, and funny that happens to be the exact score and lowest total of the 3 games played between the two with the current QB's leading each team. I think you need to add the fast track of the dome into the equation as well.

I hear ya. It's scary to bet under a game like this, but I'm committed to the N3 auto. I've been burned bad in the past on these ntv totals over 50. This year of course they are going over. But it's a good "long term" angle to go under in these. Don't you love the long term talk. Ha.

[meader99]

I hear ya. It's scary to bet under a game like this, but I'm committed to the N3 auto. I've been burned bad in the past on these ntv totals over 50. This year of course they are going over. But it's a good "long term" angle to go under in these. Don't you love the long term talk. Ha.

I totally get it, but sometimes you gotta ride the wave..... Like the Royals in postseason. DOH.

[KRIT]

Loving the saints talk here. Sorry meader, your Pack are losing this week. Probably going fairly big on Saints ML. This game reminds me a lot of Bengals/Pats from a couple weeks ago. Saints will still win that division.

[meader99]

Loving the saints talk here. Sorry meader, your Pack are losing this week. Probably going fairly big on Saints ML. This game reminds me a lot of Bengals/Pats from a couple weeks ago. Saints will still win that division.

It's cool. I'm on the fence regarding the game, but I feel the game soars over the total. Don't see NO keeping GB under 30. If that's the case, TK has GB winning 31-24.

[Tommy Karate]

Loving the saints talk here. Sorry meader, your Pack are losing this week. Probably going fairly big on Saints ML. This game reminds me a lot of Bengals/Pats from a couple weeks ago. Saints will still win that division.

and pitt/hou monday.

man, not liking what this sd line is doing. being stuck on 7.5 at pinnacle is a clear sign they want more sd money. whether that means they know the winner, or just want to balance out the action is always up for debate.

[StackinGreen]

I think the Packers can win and the problem for the Saints has been particularly the matchup against spread teams. Yes, they are at home and desperate, but there have been a lot of mediocre to bad teams this year so far that had that going and couldn't come up with anything (Jets scored first vs Broncos but didn't really threaten to win, etc.). I could easily see Saints winning by a small margin or even 7, but the Green Bay D has even been improving and Saints D is awful. Since that's the case, I'm not going to play Packers straight (or if any it'll be game time and real small) but I do think teasing Packers to above 7 is a great play.

[StackinGreen]

and pitt/hou monday.

man, not liking what this sd line is doing. being stuck on 7.5 at pinnacle is a clear sign they want more sd money. whether that means they know the winner, or just want to balance out the action is always up for debate.

Tommy, I was gonna tell you, tread lightly here. I'm looking for reasons (as you are) to take dawgs as they lines keep getting inflated but this SD team is super banged up and doesn't have the big runners they need to pound and keep away from Peyton. The line jump is classic and always a bit much, but this game could easily be 20 point winner for Denver. As it stands now, I'd predict 30-17 and it going under. Not touching it though; maybe 2H

Know the winner? Are you a conspiracy theorist now, Tommy? Sheesh.

[meader99]

I think the Packers can win and the problem for the Saints has been particularly the matchup against spread teams. Yes, they are at home and desperate, but there have been a lot of mediocre to bad teams this year so far that had that going and couldn't come up with anything (Jets scored first vs Broncos but didn't really threaten to win, etc.). I could easily see Saints winning by a small margin or even 7, but the Green Bay D has even been improving and Saints D is awful. Since that's the case, I'm not going to play Packers straight (or if any it'll be game time and real small) but I do think teasing Packers to above 7 is a great play.

New Orleans was desperate against the Bucs to and they put up over 30 on them at home. I wouldn't want to stomach watching the game and being on the under.

[meader99]

Tommy, I was gonna tell you, tread lightly here. I'm looking for reasons (as you are) to take dawgs as they lines keep getting inflated but this SD team is super banged up and doesn't have the big runners they need to pound and keep away from Peyton. The line jump is classic and always a bit much, but this game could easily be 20 point winner for Denver. As it stands now, I'd predict 30-17 and it going under. Not touching it though; maybe 2H

Know the winner? Are you a conspiracy theorist now, Tommy? Sheesh.

I like it. As such, I'm teasing Denver and the over.

[Tommy Karate]

Don't underestimate Oliver. Think MJD.

I may reduce a little based on the move if I can get 8.

[StackinGreen]

I like it. As such, I'm teasing Denver and the over.

Can't blame you. The more I think about it, the more it seems Denver by double digits. But I'm checking myself and probably won't bet until half.

[Tommy Karate]

Thursday 10.23

(10u) Chargers +7.5/-120
(3u) Under Chargers 52 (N3)

booked under @ 52

(3u) Broncos -8/-120

[Tommy Karate]

oh wow; i really hope NO wins sunday; they travel to Carolina next Thursday

[Tommy Karate]

this doesnt look promising; gotta just hope for the under i think.

[Tommy Karate]

how can the broncos not be 3/5 favorites to win it all with this defense? this is insane..

[Tommy Karate]

this game has done a complete 180 since that fukkin oyster ref did what he did.

and now the under is in trouble.....i havent been this sick in a long long time.

[StackinGreen]

this game has done a complete 180 since that fukkin oyster ref did what he did.

and now the under is in trouble.....i havent been this sick in a long long time.

Which play?

4th down conversion AND weddle interception in end zone make it go over ... let's hope it stays here for you

crazy that after the hold on the 1st Broncos series after half a PI gets 45 back

[StackinGreen]

how can the broncos not be 3/5 favorites to win it all with this defense? this is insane..

I agree. In the AFC it's almost a cake walk to the SB too. Who could possibly beat them? Maybe Indy or Balt? Maybe

[Tommy Karate]

im sitting here in a fog right now...

did they really just call a penalty on that turnover and now denver scored again?

im done for the week if this under loses......just will eat the vig and quit.

by the way, did anyone realize i didnt play the N12 Thursday night home team auto? thats right, instead of winning 150 on den i lose 450

soon to be another 160 on the under

[Tommy Karate]

Congrats Denver backers; I failed to handicap the home field advantage more into this play.
this was an absolute joke tonight...

if 1 of those 2 blatant mistakes goes in SD's favor, there is your 7 point loss.

[LtDarsh]

ahh this is why you are upset today

[Tommy Karate]

ahh this is why you are upset today

ha; yes; apologizes to anyone for being a dik last night.
i guess on the bright side i did hedge a little before kick and reduced my position from 10 to 7u..

[StackinGreen]

Week 8

Kansas City -6, 7 units
Indianapolis -2.5, 7 units

3 team 10 point teaser, KC +4/Indy +7.5/Green Bay +11.5, 6.5 to win 5 units

Will add more later. Good luck boys.

What's up with totals this week? Seem to be just spot on. Not that you need a brain ... public must be killing these books on Primetime and so many have been horseshoe up the a$$ wins

Detroit/Atlanta UNDER 47, 5 units
Chicago/New England OVER 50.5, 3 units

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13-19 straights
3-7 teasers
1-1 parlays
3-2-1 2H

-65.6 units

[meader99]

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hoping for this to hit 57 and then i'll hit it under....will just pay for the hook as 57 is a likely lading spot if this game finishes in the 50's.

Up to 56.5 now. Just side notes, Sammy Shields is doubtful, and I haven't had a chance to fact check yet, but I read somewhere that Rodgers has played 23 Dome games and has 56 TD's and 8 ints in those games. He's a baaaad man.

[Tommy Karate]

Sunday 10.26

(2u) Over Lions/Falcons 46.5/-120
(3u) Bucs -2.5/-120 (N8)
(2u) Patriots -5.5 (N7)
(1u) KC -6 (N2)
(2u) Jets -2.5/-130 (N7)
(1u) Under Jets/Bills 41
(4u) Jaguars +7 (N6)
(2u) Texans -3/-130 (N7)
(2u) Saints -125 (N7)
(3u) Under Saints/GB 56 (N3)
(2u) Over Eagles/Cards 48

(4u) Over Colts 49
(2u) KC -7 (3u total)*
(2u) Under Seahawks 45
(1u) Panthers 6
(1u) Bengals +3

booked Patriots @ -5.5
booked Texans @ - 3/-130
booked under GB @ 56
booked Jags @ +7

[Tommy Karate]

930 kickoff...ha; i forgot and just woke up

[ram1502]

Haha yeah. Lions look like they just woke up too and completely disinterested...

[RollinDo]

That GB game could be a shootout.
GL man!