71% Using Trends to Make Picks

[jessetk313]

where do you get results ats by quarter?

[Mako-SBR]

where do you get results ats by quarter?

He didn't, he cribbed them from some clown who thinks he's a trend tout.

Laughable conclusions on his page, he hasn't learned that correlation does not always equal causation, meaning let's say that when Tony Romo gets out of bed on the left side that the Cowboys are 11-4 on those days, but when he gets out on the right side of the bed they're 3-10...so our boy Gil here sees the correlation there and thinks he should now "track" what side of the bed our boy Romo gets up on each Sunday to predict wins/losses...despite the two events having nothing to do with the outcome of that day's game and being purely random.

"GiL" - his twitter feed

Still, wish I could find where that Gil guy is getting them though, because I've wanted to take advantage of weaker 1H lines more than just the usual halftime play and do it Q by Q for a long time. No luck so far, guy must be manually entering them himself each week.

[Dbear13]

where do you get results ats by quarter?

you can get them here

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/

[Dbear13]

He didn't, he cribbed them from some clown who thinks he's a trend tout (laughable conclusions on his page), "GiL" - his twitter feed

Wish I could find where that Gil guy is getting them though, because I've wanted to take advantage of weaker 1H lines more than just the usual halftime play. No luck so far, guy must be manually entering them himself each week.

I just found him and thought his stuff was interesting...that's why I'm posting it to track. Does his stuff not check out. If so let me know because what I've looked at does. I didn't post his social feed because I don't want an infraction.

[Mako-SBR]

I just found him and thought his stuff was interesting...that's why I'm posting it to track. Does his stuff not check out. If so let me know because what I've looked at does. I didn't post his social feed because I don't want an infraction.

Nice find on the stats!

Checking out is a relative term that differs between people in terms of definition. "Correlation versus Causation", that's your key. Google it and read read read. The knowledge will protect you from buying into systems that aren't based on an actual foundation, even when your eyes are screaming "BUT IT MUST BE TRUE, IT MAKES TOTAL SENSE!!!" your brain will cut through the noise and provide clarity.

Some of Gil's nonsense left-field shit does cut through the noise and have relevance, the rest of it is fantasy with no relevance to the outcome of games (purely random positive outcome due to his WAY too-small sample sizes).

I like chasing quarters though it's fun, and you can ride momentum much more effectively than say a 2H bet that features Q4 where things can change quickly. Objects in motion and all that.

[Dbear13]

Nice find on the stats!

Checking out is a relative term that differs between people in terms of definition. "Correlation versus Causation", that's your key. Google it and read read read. The knowledge will protect you from buying into systems that aren't based on an actual foundation, even when your eyes are screaming "BUT IT MUST BE TRUE, IT MAKES TOTAL SENSE!!!" your brain will cut through the noise and provide clarity.

Some of Gil's nonsense left-field shit does cut through the noise and have relevance, the rest of it is fantasy with no relevance to the outcome of games (purely random positive outcome due to his WAY too-small sample sizes).

I like chasing quarters though it's fun, and you can ride momentum much more effectively than say a 2H bet that features Q4 where things can change quickly. Objects in motion and all that.

I do agree some of his stuff is out there, but interesting.

[Coolin]

I put big money on 1Q good win

[Dbear13]

I put big money on 1Q good win

Good to hear!!! I played the 1Q,1H and FG, but I played the 1H for 2X my usual play...Hope it keeps rolling into Sunday!!!

[Mako-SBR]

Good to hear!!! I played the 1Q,1H and FG, but I played the 1H for 2X my usual play...Hope it keeps rolling into Sunday!!!

I had a unit each on 1H and FG, system looks good so far Dbear.

Have you mapped out the weekend games using the data yet?

[Dbear13]

I had a unit each on 1H and FG, system looks good so far Dbear.

Have you mapped out the weekend games using the data yet?

Awesome!! I'll try to get them up tonight...forgot it's senior night at the high school game so I gotta be there early. If not tonight, I'll have it up tomorrow morning.

[Dbear13]

Gil is not going to be posting his ATS Streakers and Sliders anymore after this week since he is going tout. Guess he is using those. The record for these picks is 19-6-1 (76%; +12.4 units)... I will track these myself and post. If you played Car FG last night that was a slider win and 1H and 1Q were streaker wins.

[Dbear13]

Here are the trends for Week 8. Play em all, pick the ones you like our find your own plays with this info...So far all Thursday night plays hit :-)...GL

Week 8

1Q

1H

2H

FG

1Q

1H

2H

FG

ATS TREND BETS

STREAK BETS

SLIDER BETS

CAR

1Q 5-1 / 1H 6-0 / FG 3-3 / 2H 2-3-1

4-0

6-0

CAR

1H

1Q;1H

FG

TB

1Q 3-3 / 1H 2-3-1 / FG 1-5 / 2H 2-4

0-4

TB

NYG

1Q 5-2 / 1H 1-5-1 / FG 2-5 / 2H 2-5

0-4

NYG

1Q

PHL

1Q 2-5 / 1H 2-5 / FG 3-4 / 2H 2-5

PHL

1H

DAL

1Q 5-2 / 1H 6-1 / FG 6-1 / 2H 4-3

3-0

3-0

DAL

1Q

1Q;FG

DET

1Q 1-5-1 / 1H 4-3 / FG 4-3 / 2H 3-4

DET

CLE

1Q 3-4 / 1H 5-2 / FG 3-4 / 2H 3-4

0-3

CLE

KC

1Q 4-3 / 1H 5-2 / FG 5-2 / 2H 5-2

KC

FG; 2H

1Q

MIA

1Q 2-4 / 1H 3-3 / FG 3-3 / 2H 4-2

0-4

0-3

MIA

2H

NE

1Q 3-4 / 1H 4-2 / FG 2-4 / 2H 2-4

NE

1Q;FG

BUF

1Q 4-3 / 1H 3-4 / FG 5-2 / 2H 4-3

BUF

NO

1Q 4-2 / 1H 5-1 / FG 4-2 / 2H 4-2

3-0

NO

1H

1Q

SF

1Q 3-4 / 1H 4-3 / FG 4-3 / 2H 4-3

4-0

4-0

SF

1H;FG;2H

1H;FG

JAX

1Q 2-5 / 1H 1-6 / FG 1-6 / 2H 3-4

JAX

NYJ

1Q 2-5 / 1H 2-4-1 / FG 5-2 / 2H 3-4

NYJ

CIN

1Q 6-1 / 1H 4-3 / FG 4-2-1 / 2H 4-3

3-0

CIN

1Q;1H;2H

1H

PIT

1Q 1-4-1 / 1H 3-3 / FG 2-4 / 2H 1-5

PIT

OAK

1Q 4-2 / 1H 4-2 / FG 3-2-1 / 2H 3-2-1

OAK

1Q;FG;2H

WAS

1Q 0-5-1 / 1H 1-5 / FG 2-4 / 2H 3-3

0-4

WAS

FG

DEN

1Q 3-4 / 1H 3-4 / FG 3-3-1 / 2H 4-2-1

0-3

DEN

1Q

1Q

ATL

1Q 5-1 / 1H 3-3 / FG 2-4 / 2H 1-5

ATL

1H

1H

ARI

1Q 4-3 / 1H 1-6 / FG 4-3 / 2H 3-3-1

0-6

ARI

FG;2H

GB

1Q 4-1-1 / 1H 5-1 / FG 3-3 / 2H 2-4

GB

1H

MIN

1Q 3-3 / 1H 2-3-1 / FG 2-4 / 2H 2-4

MIN

SEA

1Q 4-3 / 1H 4-3 / FG 5-2 / 2H 5-2

SEA

1Q;1H;FG;2H

STL

1Q 2-5 / 1H 2-5 / FG 2-5 / 2H 2-3-2

STL

ATS Trends Bet= one team over 50% covering ATS and other team under 50% covering ATS. (Bet team that covers more than 50% ATS)
Streaker Bet= Team has covered spread 3+ games in a row. (Bet this team)
Slider Bet= team has not covered spread in 3+ game (fade this team)

YTD
ATS Trends (started week 7)-14-6; 70%; +7.4 units
Streaker & Slider (started week 3)- 19-6-1; 76%; +12.4 units

[Coolin]

This week might be tough with huge spreads on the Saints, and SF. Which ones will you play yourself?

I like ATL +1 1st half, GB -6 1H, SEA 1Q;1H;FG;2H

[Coolin]

and I will probably take Saints 1Q

[Mako-SBR]

Awesome, nice work Dbear, thanks for putting it together.

[Dbear13]

This week might be tough with huge spreads on the Saints, and SF. Which ones will you play yourself?

I like ATL +1 1st half, GB -6 1H, SEA 1Q;1H;FG;2H

Hey Coolin,

Yea there are some big lines. I actually think I'm going to play all plays for 1/4 unit and full games for 1/2 a unit. I have my own system for full games that has done really well that I bet a full unit on. My only play in that system this week is KC. I'm going to compare the FG lines to my numbers and decide how or if I want to play the FG lines in the trend bets.

[Dbear13]

Awesome, nice work Dbear, thanks for putting it together.

No problem!!!

[Manel88]

In Dallas game, they are a ATS trend bet and also a streak bet for the 1Q

Will you play that bet for 2u or just 1u?

[accountingbyday]

This is interesting, but I don't really buy it as a "system" (although to be fair I don't think most "systems" are true systems).

This is completely dependent on the lines. If you're not somehow calculating whether or not you think the lines are appropriate, you're just blindly betting on a lines maker.

I think there's probably something to exploiting quarterly lines, but I'd think it's more than this.

[Mako-SBR]

This is interesting, but I don't really buy it as a "system" (although to be fair I don't think most "systems" are true systems).

This is completely dependent on the lines. If you're not somehow calculating whether or not you think the lines are appropriate, you're just blindly betting on a lines maker.

I think there's probably something to exploiting quarterly lines, but I'd think it's more than this.

Agree, and to counter it what I've been doing is judging the 1H lines by what % they are of the FG line.

When my book is gouging the first half, as they are in the GB/MIN game with GB having a ridiculous -7 spread on a -9 FG, I walk away. When the 1H line is more appropriate (traditional) at say 55-60% of the FG line then I'll play it.

Quarters are easier so far because my book hasn't been insane on them, more of a prop play that they don't handicap and move the line on as frequently as with the 1H and FG lines.

[accountingbyday]

Agree, and to counter it what I've been doing is judging the 1H lines by what % they are of the FG line.

When my book is gouging the first half, as they are in the GB/MIN game with GB having a ridiculous -7 spread on a -9 FG, I walk away. When the 1H line is more appropriate (traditional) at say 55-60% of the FG line then I'll play it.

Quarters are easier so far because my book hasn't been insane on them, more of a prop play that they don't handicap and move the line on as frequently as with the 1H and FG lines.

Yeah, I think that's the pretty standard way of looking at it, which I'll do at times too.

[Dbear13]

In Dallas game, they are a ATS trend bet and also a streak bet for the 1Q

Will you play that bet for 2u or just 1u?

Play them how you want based on your money management and how you feel you can use this data. I am not playing for more than 1 unit at this point.

[Tigers1230]

Go figure I hop on Dallas +.5 1st quarter and they give up an 85 yard catch with 2 min left and then give up the 4th and goal from the 3. I still don't understand why teams don't double cover Calvin Johnson.

[khaden]

What exactly are the plays for today? I want to make I'm correct on the graph- thx

[Dbear13]

What exactly are the plays for today? I want to make I'm correct on the graph- thx

sorry khaden... I was at my sons football game and didn't see your post. All the plays are in the last 3 columns of the table and all plays are next to the team name.

[khaden]

sorry khaden... I was at my sons football game and didn't see your post. All the plays are in the last 3 columns of the table and all plays are next to the team name.

Ok I was hoping someone could list them / for some reasoning can't view the entire chart from my cell phone/ are there any plays for tonight's fame with the pack:minny?

[Time is Money]

Just giving this a quick glance over I feel like this was really really successful up to this point this week. what are you sitting at record wise?

[tokio]

Go figure I hop on Dallas +.5 1st quarter and they give up an 85 yard catch with 2 min left and then give up the 4th and goal from the 3. I still don't understand why teams don't double cover Calvin Johnson.

Me and you both. I thought we had it in the bag until that play.

[Dbear13]

Ok I was hoping someone could list them / for some reasoning can't view the entire chart from my cell phone/ are there any plays for tonight's fame with the pack:minny?

I can see on my phone (iphone) I have to scroll over like I do on here. I'll try to do it differently for next week. GB 1H was a play tonight

[Dbear13]

Just giving this a quick glance over I feel like this was really really successful up to this point this week. what are you sitting at record wise?

Putting together now with this week...I will post soon.

[Dbear13]

Week 8 Results (Monday night still Pending)

1Q	1H	2H	FG
NYG	CAR	CIN	SF
DAL	NO	SF (push;some won)	OAK
CIN	SF	KC	AZ
OAK	CIN	OAK	KC
DEN	GB	AZ
	ATL
Sea (Pending)	Sea (Pending)	Sea (Pending)	Sea (Pending)
WEEK 8 3-2;60%; +1.8units YTD 9-3; 75%; +5.7 units	WEEK 8 5-1; 83%; +3.9 units YTD 10-2;83%; +7.8 units	WEEK 8 1-3-1; 25%; -2.3 units YTD 2-5-1; 29%; -3.5 units	WEEK 8 2-2; 50%; -.2 units YTD 4-4; 50%; -.2 units

Week 8 results
ATS Trends
11-8-1; 58%;+2.2 units
Streaker (8-0)& Sliders ( 3-5)
11-5; +5.5 units

YTD
ATS Trends-25-14-1; 64%; +9.6 units
Streaker & Slider (started week 7): 30-11-1; 73%; +17.9 units
Combined: +27.5 units

It's looking like the 1Q and 1H plays would be what we would want to play with the ATS Trend plays. All losses this week with Streaker and Sliders were in the Sliders. I'll have to go back and see where they were for week 7. All bets started in week 7. I posted week 3 for Streakers and Sliders by mistake in an earlier post. Let's hope this keeps up!!!

[Dbear13]

Go figure I hop on Dallas +.5 1st quarter and they give up an 85 yard catch with 2 min left and then give up the 4th and goal from the 3. I still don't understand why teams don't double cover Calvin Johnson.

I felt your pain on that one!!!

[tokio]

On your 1Q column, shouldnt it be 3-2 since DAL didnt cover ATS 1Q?

[Manel88]

Yeah Dallas is wrong there

[Dbear13]

On your 1Q column, should it be 3-2 since DAL didnt cover ATS 1Q?

Thanks for catching that..I changed it...on my phone is a pain..I'll update the rest in the morning when I can get on my computer.