71% Using Trends to Make Picks

[Dbear13]

Yes, week 7 is almost done and I'm posting my picks after the games are over. BUT, since it did well I figured I'd share and see what others thought and if it is something that people would want me to post. I ran across a guy on twitter who puts the stats together (so I am not actually doing the leg work), but I am comparing the teams against each other. I picked my bets based on a team that did well ATS and the other team did not do well ATS. The trends are in green color where one team covers ATS and one does not. This would be a bet.

Week 7
SEA 1Q 3-3 / 1H 3-3 / FG 4-2 / 2H 4-2 SEA 1H
ARI 1Q 4-2 / 1H 1-5 / FG 4-2 / 2H 3-2-1

DAL 1Q 4-2 / 1H 5-1 / FG 5-1 / 2H 3-3 DAL 1Q; DAL 1H
PHL 1Q 2-4 / 1H 2-4 / FG 3-3 / 2H 2-4

TB 1Q 3-2 / 1H 2-2-1 / FG 1-4 / 2H 1-4
ATL 1Q 4-1 / 1H 2-3 / FG 1-4 / 2H 1-4

CIN 1Q 5-1 / 1H 3-3 / FG 3-2-1 / 2H 3-3 CIN 1Q
DET 1Q 1-4-1 / 1H 4-2 / FG 4-2 / 2H 3-3

BUF 1Q 3-3 / 1H 2-4 / FG 4-2 / 2H 4-2
MIA 1Q 2-3 / 1H 3-2 / FG 3-2 / 2H 3-2

NE 1Q 2-3 / 1H 3-2 / FG 2-3 / 2H 2-3
NYJ 1Q 2-4 / 1H 2-3-1 / FG 4-2 / 2H 2-4 NYJ FG

CHI 1Q 3-3 / 1H 2-3-1 / FG 1-4-1 / 2H 4-2 CHI 1Q; CHI 1H
WAS 1Q 0-4-1 / 1H 0-5 / FG 1-4 / 2H 3-2

STL 1Q 2-4 / 1H 2-4 / FG 2-4 / 2H 2-3-1
CAR 1Q 2-3 / 1H 3-2 / FG 2-3 / 2H 2-3

SD 1Q 4-1 / 1H 3-2 / FG 3-1-1 / 2H 2-2-1 SD 1Q; SD 1H; SD FG
JAX 1Q 2-3 / 1H 0-5 / FG 0-5 / 2H 2-3

SF 1Q 2-4 / 1H 3-3 / FG 3-3 / 2H 4-2
TEN 1Q 3-2-1 / 1H 4-2 / FG 4-1-1 / 2H 4-2

CLE 1Q 3-3 / 1H 5-1 / FG 3-3 / 2H 3-3
GB 1Q 3-1-1 / 1H 4-1 / FG 2-3 / 2H 1-4

HOU 1Q 1-5 / 1H 1-5 / FG 0-6 / 2H 2-4
KC 1Q 3-3 / 1H 4-2 / FG 5-1 / 2H 5-1 KC 1Q; KC 1H; KC 2H; KC FG

BAL 1Q 2-4 / 1H 2-4 / FG 4-2 / 2H 5-1 BAL FG; BAL 2H
PIT 1Q 0-4-1 / 1H 2-3 / FG 1-4 / 2H 1-4

DEN 1Q 3-3 / 1H 3-3 / FG 3-2-1 / 2H 4-1-1
IND 1Q 2-3 / 1H 3-2 / FG 3-2 / 2H 3-2

Min 1Q 2-3 / 1H 2-3 / FG 2-3 / 2H 2-3
NYG 1Q 5-1 / 1H 1-5 / FG 1-5 / 2H 1-5 NYG 1Q

12-5; 1 PENDING

1Q	1H	2H	FG
DAL	SEA	CLE	NYJ
CIN	DAL	KC	SD
CHI	CHI	BAL	KC
SD	SD		BAL
KC	KC
NYG PENDING
5-0; 1 PENDING	4-1	1-2	2-2

[Manel88]

Keep posting

To be honest, i find many useless thread in here, either talking about uninteresting stuff or repeating the subject.

This doesn't seem one of those...keep going

[l3randonf]

Keep going for sure.

[Dbear13]

I'll post next weeks plays and see what happens.

[ses_d]

Looks good, Dbear.
So, tonights qualified play would be NYG 1st Q correct?

[Dbear13]

Looks good, Dbear.
So, tonights qualified play would be NYG 1st Q correct?

That's correct

[hitman09]

that's the one pending.......

[Dbear13]

Punt ran back for TD by Vikings with 25 seconds left in 1st quarter

[Dbear13]

Week 7 Results

12-6; 67%; +5.4 units

1Q	1H	2H	FG
dal	sea	cle	nyj
cin	dal	kc	sd
chi	chi	bal	kc
sd	sd		bal
kc	kc
nyg
5-1; 83%; +3.9 units	4-1; 80%; +2.9 units	1-2; 33%; -1.2 units	2-2; 50%; -.2 units

Not bad for 1st week of seeing how this could play out. I'll post next weeks picks in here.

[l3randonf]

What is FG? The entire game?

[Time is Money]

What is FG? The entire game?

gotta be full game.

[Mako-SBR]

Like this, because there are a few other systems on the board that are confirming what this one is, which is that an object in motion tends to stay in motion...

Meaning this season particularly we're seeing a lot of people do well with 1H o/u and ATS wins moving into a second half o/u and ATS outcome that continues what was happening in the first half of the game.

Pixster's posts are an example of this, he uses his own eyeball test, and plays the trend at halftime for 2H ATS & o/u (even if the 2H plays are completely counter to what he thought would happen in the first half) and has been above 60% this year consistently.

Most public bettors assume that "halftime adjustments" will yield big changes, i.e., a losing team coming back in 2H, or that the if total first half points are higher than the first half over that it must "calm down" in the second half and go under, due to the "team in the lead sitting on the ball during the fourth quarter".

Both assumptions have been proven to be wrong in recent years, the exact opposite acutally, with teams losing ATS at halftime going on to lose even bigger the second half, and first half overs & unders leading to second half overs & unders as well.

Like this Dbear, keep it up!

[Time is Money]

I would love to know the formula and what stats exactly the guy is putting together, do you know the formula or have his twitter handle?

interested nonetheless to see your plays next week.

[Mako-SBR]

I would love to know the formula and what stats exactly the guy is putting together, do you know the formula or have his twitter handle?

interested nonetheless to see your plays next week.

It looks like he's just eyeballing the ATS trends for each Q, so if a team is say 1-4 ATS in Q1 coming in, and their opponent is 4-1 ATS in Q1, the play is to take the fav and lay the Q1 points.

Same thing for the O/U.

[Dbear13]

What is FG? The entire game?

Yes it is the entire game.

[Dbear13]

I would love to know the formula and what stats exactly the guy is putting together, do you know the formula or have his twitter handle?

interested nonetheless to see your plays next week.

There is no formula. He just checks the scores vs the spread. I'm just putting together the game match ups from that and looking for favorable trends between the two.

[Dbear13]

Like this, because there are a few other systems on the board that are confirming what this one is, which is that an object in motion tends to stay in motion...

Meaning this season particularly we're seeing a lot of people do well with 1H o/u and ATS wins moving into a second half o/u and ATS outcome that continues what was happening in the first half of the game.

Pixster's posts are an example of this, he uses his own eyeball test, and plays the trend at halftime for 2H ATS & o/u (even if the 2H plays are completely counter to what he thought would happen in the first half) and has been above 60% this year consistently.

Most public bettors assume that "halftime adjustments" will yield big changes, i.e., a losing team coming back in 2H, or that the if total first half points are higher than the first half over that it must "calm down" in the second half and go under, due to the "team in the lead sitting on the ball during the fourth quarter".

Both assumptions have been proven to be wrong in recent years, the exact opposite acutally, with teams losing ATS at halftime going on to lose even bigger the second half, and first half overs & unders leading to second half overs & unders as well.

Like this Dbear, keep it up!

I like this thinking in your post. I'll have to check out Pixster's post.

[SteveRyan]

I don't think you're on to anything new here. It's no different than betting the team with the better ATS record; you're just breaking it up into quarters and halves.

There's no real edge. Results will bounce around between 40% to 60% from week to week averaging about 50% overall.

[Dbear13]

I'm putting together the stats now for this weeks games. A few trends he's mentioned that I saw that have been favorable this year besides the ones I'm putting up are that when more than 75% of the action ATS is on a team, if you fade that team the YTD record would be 13-2. He also played teams that were on a 3+ winning streak ATS and faded teams that were on a 3+ streak of not covering ATS and that went 16-6-1 in week 7 (that was the first week he played it and said he will play this every week going forward). I can post those if you want. The guy I just found that has these stats just went tout this week, but he said he is still going to post all his stats just as he has always done. If he doesn't, I will keep his stats going if it is found to be favorable. I would actually like to know how the teams would be ATS in the 3Q and 4Q. This is not data that he puts up. I may back track that to see. If I do I'll let you know.

[jessetk313]

Dbear I guess it depends where you get your numbers from for public action, but, if you back test just the last three weeks using pregame.com ml action then teams with over 75% of the action on them are 13-6. This means that just over the past three weeks if you used the theory you stated above of fading teams with 75% action or more then you'd be 6-13 over the three week span. Now maybe your talking about the spread? Or maybe the numbers your using are different than those on pregame.com?

[Dbear13]

Dbear I guess it depends where you get your numbers from for public action, but, if you back test just the last three weeks using pregame.com ml action then teams with over 75% of the action on them are 13-6. This means that just over the past three weeks if you used the theory you stated above of fading teams with 75% action or more then you'd be 6-13 over the three week span. Now maybe your talking about the spread? Or maybe the numbers your using are different than those on pregame.com?

Hey Jesse...pregame.com is the site that is used. The stats are based on playing the spread not the ML...sorry about the confusion..I also went back 3 weeks when I first saw his stat and if I remember correctly fading the team with 75+% action was something like 7-3. I used percents from 73% up since they would change up or down some after he placed his bets due to money coming in late and updates after game start.

[4TH AND STUPID]

how does fading 75% or more on spread work out if you backtrack beyond this year?

[Dbear13]

how does fading 75% or more on spread work out if you backtrack beyond this year?

No idea...I just saw that stat that was posted and figured I'd share. I have not had time to check.

[Dbear13]

Here are Thursday nights trends ...I couldn't get chart to look right with headings, so I color coded it...GL

1Q

1H

2H

FG

1Q

2Q

2H

FG

ATS TREND BETS

STREAK BETS

SLIDER BETS

CAR

1Q 5-1 / 1H 6-0 / FG 3-3 / 2H 2-3-1

4-0

6-0

CAR

1H

1Q;1H

FG

TB

1Q 3-3 / 1H 2-3-1 / FG 1-5 / 2H 2-4

0-4

TB

ATS Trends Bet= one team over 50% covering ATS and other team under 50% covering ATS. (Bet team that covers more than 50% ATS)
Streaker Bet= Team has covered spread 3+ games in a row. (Bet this team)
Slider Bet= team has not covered spread in 3+ game (fade this team)

[Time is Money]

Why on the original chart am I reading Carolina 3-2 1H and now they're 6-0 1H?

[Dbear13]

Why on the original chart am I reading Carolina 3-2 1H and now they're 6-0 1H?

Good catch...That was a mistake on my part cutting and pasting over. It should be 6-0 this week and should have been 5-0 last week. 1H and 1Q should have been a play last week. It covered in both.

• CAR Panthers
Week 1 = 1Q yes, 1H yes, FG no, 2H no
Week 2 = 1Q no, 1H yes, FG no, 2H no
Week 3 = 1Q yes, 1H yes, FG yes, 2H yes
Week 4 = BYE
Week 5 = 1Q yes, 1H yes, FG no, 2H no
Week 6 = 1Q yes, 1H yes, FG yes, 2H yes
Week 7 = 1Q yes, 1H yes, FG yes, 2H push
*ATS* = 1Q 5-1 / 1H 6-0 / FG 3-3 / 2H 2-3-1

[Manel88]

The play on this game would be Carolina 1H only right?

[hoopdreams]

1h, fg, 1q?

[Dbear13]

The play on this game would be Carolina 1H only right?

If using all 3 types of trends it would be 1H,1Q,FG but if betting from how I did it last week it would only be 1H.

[Dbear13]

1h, fg, 1q?

1st half, 1st quarter, full game

[Time is Money]

What number did you play Carolina at?

[Lift2beFit]

Wow interesting thread, glad i decided to pop in

[Dbear13]

What number did you play Carolina at?

-3 1/2 ....I didn't get it at -3 this morning

[jessetk313]

so according to your system Carolina 1sthalf/full game prop bet at plus 400 odds is a pounder?

[Dbear13]

UPDATED Week 7 Results

14-6; 70%; +7.4 units

1Q	1H	2H	FG
dal	sea	cle	nyj
cin	dal	kc	sd
chi	chi	bal	kc
sd	sd		bal
kc	kc
car	car
nyg
6-1; 86%; +4.9 units	5-1; 83%; +3.9 units	1-2; 33%; -1.2 units	2-2; 50%; -.2 units

I missed car 1Q and 1H