[Vegasjack2]

For the last twelve hours I have been thinking about betting the Washington Redskins. Before the kickoff to last nights Colts Steelers game I was dead set on these two games going dog and dog. Last night I sided with Indianapolis in a big way plus the points and a small play on the moneyline which almost cashed in. I went to bed dead set on the skins. My argument for this was clear and simple. First of all, injuries on Dallas. There were major question marks around Felix Jones, Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. All major factors to the offense, and a big reason why Washington looked so much better with them out, getting points. Secondly, Monday Night games are always bet big, and I was imagining this being bet even bigger with the fact that Washington has not done anything flashy, despite being 2-0. They do not have any big name players that attract public money. Most importantly, they have Rex Grossman. Every non educated bettor out there (and there are A LOT) will almost refuse to bet on Rex. With Dallas being such a big public team, I thought it was a sure thing that Washington would be a major value pick and I thought that getting Washington at 4.5 with all those factors in place was a great bet.
Things change over night.
Dallas has confirmed that all the above players excluding Miles Austin will be playing in the game tonight. Although many of them will be banged up and playing hurt, they will all be playing in the game. Now, after thinking this over, a couple things came to mind. Rivalry game. Skins Cowboys, classic NFC East rivalry. This game is going to be physical, and pain is not going to come to mind of these players because it is expected. Every play is going to count. This game and situation would be different if this was Jacksonville or Carolina or Kansas City. I think that this is even more magnified considering that it is opening night in Dallas. Now, it is true that Dallas probably has the worst home field advantage in the league. Big spacious stadium, not to much crowd noise. It also serves as a spectacle for other teams to play in. However, on opening night, there is pressure to perform and expectations to meet, especially at a 1-1 record with a tough run of games ahead.
Now, since I strongly believe that these injuries are not going to be a factor, I have all the confidence in the world that I am correct in my second angle. This line opened with Washington as a 7 point underdog. Talking to multiple bookmakers, Washington appeared to be a phenomenal bet. As of Wednesday almost 7 of every 9 bets from a bookmaker I was talking to were on the Cowboys. Talking to the same guy tonight, since reopen Yesterday with Washington +4.5 it has been nearly 9 of every 10 on WASHINGTON and not on Dallas. The reason for this is simple. Everyone thinks they have the inside edge on this game. When is the last time you have heard of a guy getting a pain killer injection? When is the last time ESPN Analysts have gone into detail about the equipment a player is wearing to the extent of that of Tony Romo tonight. When is the last time that they have pulled up X-Ray photos on previews shows and doctors call in to shows to discuss the effect injuries will have on players? I can almost guarantee if there was a time that it was a playoff game (I remember TONS about T.O. in the Superbowl when he was with Philly) or a Monday Night game. People (Like I was until today) are getting so caught up in these injuries and the FLURRY of information that bettors have NEVER even thought about taking into consideration tonight. Bottom line is these injuries are not going to lose the game or lose the cover for Dallas tonight, period. I think after all is said and done, it is a non issue. There is so much money going in the direction of Washington it is ridiculous. You don’t have to be smart to realize this at all. If everyone loved Dallas at -7 and almost 7.5 how can everyone not like them at -3.5? Miles Austin is the only starter not playing!? Your telling me that he is worth four points. Don’t give me the, well the other starters are all hurt argument. Its football! it’s a rivalry game! This is going to be a non-factor, end of story. Tomorrow will there be pain for these guys, probably. Tonight, there may be too, but it wont show.
Third thing I like about Dallas, and you may as well call it the backup plan is the defense. We all saw how a defensive line can almost win you a game last night. Wait till you watch tonight. Through two games (two very good opponents) Dallas has the fifth ranked defense in the league with a very strong rushing defensive unit. They have also made big improvements at defending the pass. Offensively they can compete with anyone. They hung 27 on the Jets and 24 on the Niners. Dez Bryant is literally un-guardable along the outside and made Revis look silly all game long. I don’t see who can even compete with Bryant tonight for balls on the Redskins as the tallest man in the secondary is 5’10. Bryant at 6’3 is going to have a major height advantage to go along with his speed advantage. I think it is going to be a struggle for Washington to move the ball on offense and get stops on defense. The Skins came out in that week one game at home against the Giants and looked very good. Last week, they came down to earth against the Cardinals. Tonight on the road I cant see them keeping this within a field goal. Grossman is notoriously bad, well anywhere but especially away from his home field. I just can’t see him getting it done tonight against this Cowboys team that everyone is putting down.
So how is this one going to go? Total is 45 or 44.5 depending where you look. Likely score with the spread would be 24-21 Dallas. I think that in order for the Cowboys to get the cover, they have to get a touchdown a quarter. I will set their magic number at 28. In order for the Skins to get the cover, I feel they must break 21. Last night I had the Colts keeping it close with Pittsburgh taking a lead in the second half and giving the Steeler backers all the confidence in the world. Sack fumble, boom it happened. Tonight I have a sense of things going a little bit differently. 45 seems like a big number to back the over. With the spread where it is now, a teaser gets you Washington +9.5 or +10.5 with the total dropping to 38 (irrelevant). I have to imagine that there is a large amount of teaser money on this game, especially knowing how much money is rolling in on the underdog. If everyone is taking the points, they are going to want more. If you are confident at 3, your very confident at 9.5 and 10.5. Now with that said, I had to think of a logical game flow, and a logical result which fits into this theory. To me this is the only way the game tonight can go. Dallas at home, hangs seven up on the board quickly. This is followed by a Washington field goal. This Washington field goal may happen after a touchdown early or later in the half, but sometime in the first half this game is going to go from being played on the 3’s, 7’s and 10’s to being played on the 4’s, 8’s and 11’s. Once this number path is established, Dallas will go up 14. I expect them to be up the 14 late third quarter or early in the fourth. This still gives time for Washington to kick another field goal on a stalled drive. If it is later in the fourth, I would be worried, because prevent defense comes out and Washington drives down and likely gets the score, if it is early, no sweat, we got it. I know it sounds crazy, but somewhere it will happen. This puts my most likely final score at 28-17 Dallas, cover both game and teaser push the total. Other likely final scores to kill the teaser and deliver the first under of a prime time game this year (maybe, I am not positive on the numbers) is 24-14 or 21-17. If this becomes a shootout, 34-21 or 35-24 Dallas. Watch for the Boys to stick on the 3’s 7’s and 10’s while the Skins get stuck on the 4’s 8’s and 11’s.
Dallas gets it done tonight. I have a feeling people are going to be stirring wondering why oh why they left their money in the hands of Rex Grossman.
Dallas Cowboys -3.5

[lurk]

like the write-up...probably because I'm on Dallas...hope you're right, good luck