College Hoops 2011-12

[pacocn]

Biff, here we go, 49ers +3.5, Pats -14,
Ravens -8, Ny Giants +9 bol

[pacocn]

Biff, I also sprinkled 1x on the Giants ml (+330)
all plays are locked and loaded

[svenodds]

5-0 +13u today. 47-45-2 0u season to date. dead even entering January 9th.

nice work

[HoulihansTX]

Good day all around.

[fly fisher]

what do you think about St Marys vs San Fran, haven't seen the spread yet, but St Mary should win handily. Other game and probably the one I will go biggest on is Wyoming vs Idaho St. Wyoming should also by a bunch.

just saw the spreads Wy -18 and St Mary at -17, these might be better 1H bets to take instead of the game.

[pacocn]

5-0 +13u today. 47-45-2 0u season to date. dead even entering January 9th.

Impressive!!!!!!!!!!!! Now it's time to start making the green

[BiffTFinancial]

no keep up games today, nothing even in the neighborhood. may take today off with small card and CFB national title game tonight. nothing jumps out at me, and have a bunch of stuff to get done so that i can skip out of work early and head to the Schvitz for a steam and a steak and a proper pregame before Bama/LSU.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, here we go, 49ers +3.5, Pats -14, Ravens -8, Ny Giants +9 bol

thanks, pacocn. at first blush, i like with all of those, so i might just straight up tail your plays.

[BiffTFinancial]

what do you think about St Marys vs San Fran, haven't seen the spread yet, but St Mary should win handily. Other game and probably the one I will go biggest on is Wyoming vs Idaho St. Wyoming should also by a bunch. just saw the spreads Wy -18 and St Mary at -17, these might be better 1H bets to take instead of the game.

i haven't looked at those games, fly fisher, but at first look, i would agree with you that 1H might be better than game. if i have time i will cap some hoops at lunch.

[BiffTFinancial]

thanks a lot for all of the well wishes, fellas. now to keep things heading in the right direction going forward.

[Madison]

no keep up games today. Indiana/Penn State is the only potential qualifier, but Penn State is red-flagged for pace and thus disqualified (same reason they were disqualified earlier this week vs Purdue - a game that was never close to going over).

I was going to ask you about Penn ST. I watched the entire NW game and it's beyond my imagination how they could hang 82 on Indiana. The pace is moderate at best and they can't shoot. Thoughts? The over went over by 40!

[Madison]

Huge line change. What's up???

Arz goes from -3 to +1.5 last I looked and then wins by 11. Someone got hurt.

[Luv2Play2]

balls

1/8 Santa Anita Race 5 Valkyrie Missle #1 horse.

25 wps = j/k will wait for another...gl

[BiffTFinancial]

I was going to ask you about Penn ST. I watched the entire NW game and it's beyond my imagination how they could hang 82 on Indiana. The pace is moderate at best and they can't shoot. Thoughts? The over went over by 40!

PSU played the IU game at a much faster pace than their previous games. to give you an idea, their pace heading into the Purdue game was 64.1. the Purdue game dropped it to 63.9 heading into yesterday's game, which increased it to 64.3 as of this morning. if you do a quick pace calc (taking into account FGA, OREB, TO and FTA), you see that the pace for Purdue/PSU was about 59.25 while the pace for IU/PSU was about 72.5. the expected pace for Purdue/PSU was 63.3, while the expected pace for IU/PSU was 65.6, but the former played to much slower pace than expected while latter played to much higher. in looking at the box scores, the key culprit was FTs: Purdue/PSU had 22 FTs while IU/PSU had 57, yielding over 5.5/team pace increase (while FGA, OREB and TO combined yielded about a 5/team increase). Indiana is exceptional at drawing fouls (47.2 FTA/FGA good for 13th nationally) and did it even better than usual yesterday (their FTA/FGA was 46.1 heading into yesterday's game), but it's not as if PSU normally gives a ton of fouls/FTs (they are average in that department). i wish i knew how to predict that sort of variance. this is the kind of shit that keeps Ken Pom up at night, i'd imagine.

[BiffTFinancial]

Arz goes from -3 to +1.5 last I looked and then wins by 11. Someone got hurt.

i'm clueless too and have no idea as to explanation. i don't normally consider line movement to be a determinative factor in capping (if i like a play and the movement agrees, i like it better, in part because it means i'll beat the closer; if i'm shaky on a play and the movement is fishy, i'll pass). i think that line movement is best used to justify passing on a game altogether. examples like AZ yesterday or pretty much any Okie State football game this season are a major reason why. it could be that a major tout had a play on USC (a touted play by someone like RAS could move the line that much; don't know who he had yesterday). i think that the takeaway should be what Pacocn mentioned yesterday: USC simply is unbackable right now. nothing more than that.

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 1.10.2012
4* La Salle/Penn over 136'
3* Ohio State/Illinois over 124

[BiffTFinancial]

there are five potential keep-up games today

La Salle/Penn over 136'
Ball St/Toledo over 135
Louisville/Providence over 132'
Ohio State/Illinois over 124
Vandy/S Carolina over 131

La Salle/Penn and OSU/Illinois both meet all requirements and are legit keep-up games, but the other three have red flags:
Toledo's A/TO ratio really bad
S Carolina pace is 63.3, so they aren't likely to push tempo against Vandy
Providence plays a fair amount of zone, UL great defensive team, total has dropped from opener

UL/Providence game is the only one where the red flags are subjective enough that i could justify playing it, but i cap that game at around 135-136 points, so not a huge margin. i will take a longer look at that one later and may add it.

[sixzero]

I'm going to subscribe. Thanks and good luck.

[Madison]

PSU played the IU game at a much faster pace than their previous games. to give you an idea, their pace heading into the Purdue game was 64.1. the Purdue game dropped it to 63.9 heading into yesterday's game, which increased it to 64.3 as of this morning. if you do a quick pace calc (taking into account FGA, OREB, TO and FTA), you see that the pace for Purdue/PSU was about 59.25 while the pace for IU/PSU was about 72.5. the expected pace for Purdue/PSU was 63.3, while the expected pace for IU/PSU was 65.6, but the former played to much slower pace than expected while latter played to much higher. in looking at the box scores, the key culprit was FTs: Purdue/PSU had 22 FTs while IU/PSU had 57, yielding over 5.5/team pace increase (while FGA, OREB and TO combined yielded about a 5/team increase). Indiana is exceptional at drawing fouls (47.2 FTA/FGA good for 13th nationally) and did it even better than usual yesterday (their FTA/FGA was 46.1 heading into yesterday's game), but it's not as if PSU normally gives a ton of fouls/FTs (they are average in that department). i wish i knew how to predict that sort of variance. this is the kind of shit that keeps Ken Pom up at night, i'd imagine.

Thanks Biff, I didn't catch the FT differential.

[BiffTFinancial]

I'm going to subscribe. Thanks and good luck.

BOL to you too. let's get it.

[BiffTFinancial]

Thanks Biff, I didn't catch the FT differential.

sure thing. you pointed out two comparable games (both PSU as medium home dog) that offered a very interesting pace contrast.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Virginia Tech -4 (-105)

was torn between VT and the game under/1H under, like the side just a little more.

Tuesday 1.10.2012 updated card
4* La Salle/Penn over 136'
3* Virginia Tech -4 (-105)
3* Ohio State/Illinois over 124

[BiffTFinancial]

for the record, officially NOT adding UL/Providence as a keep-up game. upon more extensive review, can't back it. BOL to all tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

2H leans

UGA/UF under 72
Ball St/Toledo over 72'
Iowa/MSU under 75'

[pacocn]

Bobcats/Rockets Over 95 2nd Half
bol everyone locked and loaded.

[BiffTFinancial]

Bobcats/Rockets Over 95 2nd Half bol everyone locked and loaded.

shit, missed it. BOL.

[pacocn]

Bobcats/Rockets Over 95 2nd Half bol everyone locked and loaded.

Biff, glad you missed it these two teams couldn't put the bisquit in the basket.

[pacocn]

Biff, cash ohio st. over w/ 6min left in game
also Clips +1.5 1st Q cashes.

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 1.10.2012 updated card
4* La Salle/Penn over 136' - LOSER
3* Virginia Tech -4 (-105) - LOSER
3* Ohio State/Illinois over 124 - WINNER

1-2 -4.55u, 48-47-2 -4.55u season to date.

OSU/Illinois over was easy winner, but La Salle/Penn completely bogged down in the 2H after a solid 1H with plenty of fouls. keep-up games now 9-5 after 1-1 last night. in hindsight, there was nothing wrong at all about UL/Providence over.

[BiffTFinancial]

three potential keep-up games today

W&M/Towson over 119'
Cuse/Nova over 145
Missou/Iowa State over 151'

Towson obviously is nothing but red flags (pace, PomOff, 3PT%, 2PT%), so scratch that one. Cuse/Nova and Missou/ISU are the two candidates, will have to take closer look at them, but at first look, no major red flags on either (thought Cuse and Nova both playing a significant amount of zone could be an issue, and that game figures to involve a ton of offensive boards, which is bad for pace).

[BiffTFinancial]

Wednesday 1.11.2012
4* Buffalo/Ohio U over 143

[BiffTFinancial]

leans

Cuse/Nova over 145
Missou/Iowa State over 151'
Charlotte/UMass over 144
Northwestern/Michigan under 132'
W&M -4'
Akron -2
St Bonnie -3'
Rutgers +9
Iowa State +3'

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

3* Syracuse/Villanova over 145

Wednesday 1.11.2012 updated card
4* Buffalo/Ohio U over 143
3* Syracuse/Villanova over 145

Cuse/Nova over officially qualifies as a keep-up game.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Temple/St Louis over 130'

Wednesday 1.11.2012 updated card
4* Buffalo/Ohio U over 143
3* Syracuse/Villanova over 145
2* Temple/St Louis over 130'

[BiffTFinancial]

still may take Missou/ISU over and also starting to like Charlotte +4' more than the total (think a lot of the value has gone out of the over, same with Bonnies and W&M sides). hoping that Charlotte might tick up to +5 long enough to grab it.