Tracking New Predictive Model

[jackmyhoggoff]

Again THANKS ! LOVE that A$$ !!!!!

[PSABB]

Again THANKS ! LOVE that A$$ !!!!!

LOL, welcome

[PSABB]

A good "rebound" night yesterday, although these late night games - especially ones that go into overtime - are gonna kill me.

1-1 in college hoops as Gonzaga comes through with an outright win in OT, but Western Carolina suffers a complete 2nd half meltdown. We're seeing a bunch of those these days. Should have been an easy 15-20 point win for them as they're up by 17 at the half, but they decide to lay down to the Citadel over the final 20 minutes and get outscored 50-25.

We get a nice 2-0 night in the NHL as Chicago shuts out Nashville 3-0 and keeps the game under 5.5 goals, and LA comes through on the ML for a nice 4-2 win. Hopefully this is the start of a nice little run in hockey.

Not much I can say about the NBA...this is simply the worst run I've had in a long, long time. The system is usually pretty good in the NBA, so I just have to keep plugging away.

That being said, any time I can add +2.77 units it's a good night. On a side note, since I started posting the system has gone a pretty remarkable 10-2 on 2 unit plays, which are ones that have a higher probability of hitting. Had a couple that were just shy of 3 units, but I'm sure we'll eventually see one.

I'll be on and off throughout the day, and due to some commitments that I have this evening, I should have the picks up anytime between 4:30 and 5:30. Hope everyone has a great day.


Gonzaga +4.................................2 UNITS...............WIN +2.00
Western Carolina -10....................1 UNIT.................LOSS -1.07

Boston -4 (buy the 1/2 point here).................1 UNIT...........LOSS -1.16

Los Angeles Kings ML..................................2 UNITS...........WIN +2.00
Chicago/Nashville Under 5.5.......................1 UNIT..............WIN +1.00



OVERALL:

NCAABB: 20-12 (63%) +13.09 units
NBA: 1-6 (14%) -5.56 units
NHL: 6-5 (54%) +1.63 units

[PSABB]

OK guys, got the numbers done early so here's the card for the evening...short and sweet. In NCAA hoops....

Detroit +6.5.................................... ....2 UNITS
Niagara +4 (buy the 1/2 pt).................1 UNIT
St. Peters +3...................................... 1 UNIT

and in the NBA:

New Orleans -5...................................1 UNIT

No NHL action this evening that I saw any significant edge to, so we'll pass tonight.

As always, best of luck.

[PSABB]

A 2-2 night but we added just under a unit to the pot. Be back around 10:30 or 11 with my selections.

Detroit +6.5.................................... ....2 UNITS................WIN +2.00
Niagara +4 (buy the 1/2 pt).................1 UNIT...................LOSS -1.08
St. Peters +3...................................... 1 UNIT...................LOSS -1.03

New Orleans -5...................................1 UNIT...................WIN +1.00


OVERALL:

NCAABB: 21-14 (60%) +12.98 units
NBA: 2-6 (25%) -4.56 units
NHL: 6-5 (54%) +1.63 units

[PSABB]

Big, big Saturday on tap!

Here's my selections on the early games; wanted to get them in now to lock up the lines and give myself ample time to analyze the later games. I also listed the NBA games now, as the lines will probably move against us.

Missouri +4...............................2 UNITS
Syracuse +1..............................2 UNITS
Auburn +4.................................1 UNIT (depending on your book, you may have to buy the 1/2 pt)

And in the NBA....

Dallas -9.5................................2 UNITS
Sacramento +10........................1 UNIT

Best of luck to everyone!

[PSABB]

OK...only one play through the 6 PM games...

Alabama +2 (buy the 1/2 point).......................1 UNIT

Best of luck.

[PSABB]

Sorry for the late posting, but got tied up and couldn't get online....adding an NHL play that goes at 7 PM EST....

Detroit/Buffalo OVER 5.5 goals.......................1 UNIT

Back later.

[PSABB]

Adding on a final NCAA hoops play for the evening:

Denver +3...............................1 UNIT

[cant call it]

GL bro, I just found this and want to check in from time to time.

[Axis]

I like the Detroit over pick...especially with them starting McDonald, and Buffalo lacking defense. Just hope Detroit comes out on top

G/L

[PSABB]

Bad day yesterday; no two ways about it. I'll update later - have to head out - and I think I found some interesting tidbits of info about the system that I'll share with everyone later. As for now, wanted to get the plays for today in...just two...

Purdue +1..............................2 UNITS

NY Rangers ML........................2 UNITS

As always, good luck.

[PSABB]

Didn't get a chance to come on much over the weekend, as it was a lot more hectic than usual. First, the recap of the weekend...

Saturday

Missouri +4...............................2 UNITS...............LOSS -2.10
Syracuse +1..............................2 UNITS...............WIN +2.00
Auburn +4.................................1 UNIT.................WIN +1.00
Alabama +2..............................1 UNIT..................LOSS -1.11
Denver +3.................................1 UNIT.................LOSS -1.00

Dallas -9.5................................2 UNITS...............LOSS -2.22
Sacramento +10........................1 UNIT................LOSS -1.00

Detroit/Buffalo OVER 5.5 goals.......................1 UNIT..........LOSS -1.35

And Sunday...

Purdue +1..............................2 UNITS................WIN +2.00
NY Rangers ML........................2 UNITS................LOSS -2.38

And the updated record...

OVERALL:

NCAABB: 24-17 (58%) +13.77 units
NBA: 2-8 (20%) -7.78 units
NHL: 6-7 (46%) -2.10 units


Okay, now that the crap weekend stuff is out of the way...I mentioned that there was some things about the system that I was working on over the weekend, and that I'd share some info with everyone. First, a little about the system so you understand what I'll be doing from here on out...

The system I use is a mathematical model that I developed that takes into account statistics for each team in a matchup, but also factors in the "human side" of things. Revenge, motivation, coaching tendencies, travel, weather (if applicable), and literally dozens of other factors. I've come up with a way to attach a number to these things, so they can be statistically correlated into figuring out which is the "right side" of a matchup. What the system does is give me what I'll call a "probability rating" that a team will cover the spread that Vegas assigns to them. And the way that I've been using this model is:

Anything below a 55% probability....no play.
55-64% probability = 1 unit
65-75% probability = 2 units
70-79% probability = 3 units
80-89% probability = 4 units
90% or more probability = 5 units (my max bet)

Now, anyone that's been watching this thread knows that I have only bet 1 or 2 units on games, because the model is very realistic...there is rarely a high (i.e. 90% or more) probability in a matchup. After all, Vegas is pretty good at what they do. So I went back and looked at the last 12 months of data that I had in using this system, and I found out a few things.

- The 1 unit games (those in the 55-64% probability rating) were hitting anywhere from 53% to 56%, depending on the sport. While these are not necessarily bad percentages, it's still like flipping a coin in my eyes. I want to have a distinct advantage over the lines, not just a few percentage points. I don't do this for the thrill of gambling, I do this because I want $$$.

- Of the 1 unit games that were winners, most of them came once they crossed the magical 60% mark.

- The 2 unit games (those in the 65-75% probability rating) were averaging well over 60%...pretty much what you have seen since I have been posting here on SBR. In the last 2 weeks, my 2-unit plays have gone 13-5 for a 72% clip. Pretty damn good.

So, what I am going to do is change my percentage rankings a bit. Instead of the probabilities detailed above, I will be using this formula starting today:

Anything below a 59% probability....no play.
60-64% probability = 1 unit
65-69% probability = 2 units
70-74% probability = 3 units
75-79% probability = 4 units
80% or more probability = 5 units (my max bet)

This will do a few things. First, it will naturally weed out the plays that are simply (for lack of a better term) performing at no better than a toss up in this system. So I'll have less plays, which is not necessarily a bad thing. I personally don't want to be betting on every game hoping that I'll come out slightly ahead at the end of the day. I play poker quite a bit, and as I've mentioned throughout this thread, I only like putting money in the middle when I feel like I have the best of it.

Also, it will change the units wagered, and put more units towards where they should be going...towards games that have a higher expected probability of cashing. So you'll see a few 1 and 2 unit wagers like you have been, but there will be some 3's and a few 4's in there as well. 5 unit plays will still be rare...I may have them 3 or 4 times a year, if that.

Lastly, it will increase both the winning percentage and # of units wagered and won in the system.

So, starting tonight you may see less plays from me...instead of 7 or 8 on a day, I may only have 1-3. I'll post what I do have at the normal time, which is usually between 5 and 6 PM EST.

[chunk]

Premise seems like a good one. Can't say that I know much about systems, but this one sounds like my golf game....constant tinkering. It just seems that to assign values to the human element would be very difficult and would take many years of testing. Good luck though because I don't think that any computer generated selections based on stats alone would ever work.

[PSABB]

Premise seems like a good one. Can't say that I know much about systems, but this one sounds like my golf game....constant tinkering. It just seems that to assign values to the human element would be very difficult and would take many years of testing. Good luck though because I don't think that any computer generated selections based on stats alone would ever work.

Your last sentence is 100% correct...systems that are based on stats alone do NOT work. If they did, the Magic would always beat the Kings because they have better talent and therefore better stats. The system, though, correctly predicted that the Kings would have the edge last week when they played. It saw parameters that go beyond stats and trends.

[btd]

First time visiting your thread, looks interesting , I'll try to stop by later on to see your picks , BOL.

[liubomir]

Interesting stuff. Looks promising so far for College Hoops. Keep up the good work.

[PSABB]

First time visiting your thread, looks interesting , I'll try to stop by later on to see your picks , BOL.

Interesting stuff. Looks promising so far for College Hoops. Keep up the good work.

Thanks guys

[Aristocles]

Interesting read. Quantification of subjective variables.

Let's get 'em tonight, bro!

[PSABB]

Man, small card tonight in just about every sport. Only one play tonight, and it just so happens to be in the NBA, where I've been completely on fire..... LOL.

Denver Nuggets/Atlanta Hawks OVER 201.5.................1 UNIT

Best of luck to everyone.

[Axis]

So I was wondering...do you use the same equation for all 4 major sports?

[PSABB]

So I was wondering...do you use the same equation for all 4 major sports?

The same type model, yes...but the equations that go into each sport are completely different.

[PSABB]

OK, so this guy walks into the bar and pulls up a stool beside me, puts a gun to my head and says pick me an NBA winner. Bam. Dead.

Denver Nuggets/Atlanta Hawks OVER 201.5.................1 UNIT...........LOSS -1.06

Ok, just kidding...but this run in the NBA is really starting to piss me off. Not exactly the type of run I'd like to be known for, if you get my drift. Anyway, I spent last night and most of the day reviewing the model for the NBA, made a few minor adjustments, and hopefully will see that pay off. Picks up in a few...want to check one thing.

OVERALL

NCAABB: 24-17 (58%) +13.77 units
NBA: 2-9 (18%) -8.84 units
NHL: 6-7 (46%) -2.10 units

[PSABB]

OK, new month....time to roll. 4 selections on tap for tonight.

Akron +2..................................2 UNITS (buy the 1/2 pt if your book doesn't have it)
Loyola Chicago +4......................1 UNIT

Houston Rockets +5....................2 UNITS
Golden State +5.5.......................1 UNIT

Best of luck, everyone.

[PSABB]

Long day....will post picks now and will update yesterday and tonight's matchups later....first in college hoops we have:

Minnesota +4........................2 UNITS

In the NBA....

Portland -3...........................2 UNITS
Houston +3...........................1 UNIT

Best of luck!!

[PSABB]

Hey all...was dealing with some pressing issues the last few days so I didn't get to post. Here's an update on the record, as well as 3 NBA selections for the evening....

Akron +2..................................2 UNITS.................LOSS -2.18
Loyola Chicago +4......................1 UNIT.................LOSS -1.05
Houston Rockets +5....................2 UNITS...............WIN +2.00
Golden State +5.5.......................1 UNIT.................LOSS -1.11

Minnesota +4........................2 UNITS.....................LOSS -2.06
Portland -3...........................2 UNITS.....................WIN +2.00
Houston +3...........................1 UNIT......................PUSH


OVERALL

NCAABB: 24-20 (55%) +8.48 units
NBA: 4-10 (29%) -5.95 units
NHL: 6-7 (46%) -2.10 units

And now on to tonight's selections...3 picks in the NBA

Indiana +6.5..................................2 UNITS
Sacramento +7.5............................2 UNITS
Charlotte +10.5..............................1 UNIT

As always, best of luck!!