Tracking New Predictive Model

[PSABB]

I made some adjustments to one of the long-time models I have been using based on some recent observations I've noticed, and wanted to keep track of the results for the remainder of the NBA, NCAABB and NHL seasons. Here's tonight's card:

Seton Hall +4 (buy 1/2 point)...........2 units
Towson +7.5...................1 unit
San Jose State -6.5..............1 unit
Miami FL -11.5..............1 unit
Delaware +5.5........................2 units

and in the NBA:

Indiana +6 (buy the 1/2 point)........1 unit
Utah +4.5...........1 unit

No NHL play for the evening; model shows Boston ML but as of right now it's at -212, and I don't ever play anything over -160 in hockey.

[PSABB]

Recap of last night...

Seton Hall +4 (buy 1/2 point).....WIN.........+2.00 units
Towson +7.5...........................LOSS..... ..-1.05 units
San Jose State -6.5.................LOSS.......-1.08 units
Miami FL -11.5.........................WIN........ .+1.00 unit
Delaware +5.5.........................WIN........ ..+2.00 units

Indiana +6 (buy the 1/2 point)....LOSS........-1.14 units
Utah +4.5...............................WIN.. ........+1.00 unit

3-2 (60%) in NCAA hoops and 1-1 (50%) in the NBA. The Indiana/Miami game was interesting to say the least....Pacers down by 20 early on, them come back to make it a game, only to not cover by 1 point. Wade, James and Bosh were unreal.

So overall 4-3 for +2.73 units.

Back around 6 PM with today's selections.

[PSABB]

OK, here's the selections for tonight...

Cleveland State +1.5.......2 UNITS
Duke -13.5....................1 UNIT
Iona -12.......................1 UNIT
TCU +4.........................2 UNITS
SE MIssouri State +11.....1 UNIT

In the NBA we have...

Miami Heat -9......................1 UNIT
LA Lakers -11......................1 UNIT
Washington Wizards +12.5......1 UNIT

And finally, two NHL selections....

Philadelphia Flyers/Florida Panthers UNDER 5.5 goals..........1 UNIT
Calgary Flames ML...................................... .................1 UNIT

10 selections in all. Back later tonight to recap, good luck to everyone with your wagers

[PSABB]

2/16 RECAP

Weird night for the tweaks I made to my existing system. It's performing incredibly well in college hoops, going 4-1 for a nice 80% win rate. That makes it 7-3 in 2 days, and although it's a small sample size I'm encouraged by the results. However, it fell way short though in the NBA going 0-3 (including a huge disappointing effort from the Lakers) and broke even in NHL action at 1-1. Overall a 5-5 night with a -0.50 loss on the juice.

The good news is that I believe I found out where the problem lies in the NBA predictions of the new model...bad news is that I won't get to test my theory until after the break, as the 2 games are a 'no play' tonight. One of the games was a borderline play, but I'm not going to force a play that I don't like.

Cleveland State +1.5.......2 UNITS..................WIN +2.00
Duke -13.5....................1 UNIT...................WIN +1.00
Iona -12.......................1 UNIT...................WIN +1.00
TCU +4.........................2 UNITS.................LOSS -2.06
SE MIssouri State +11.....1 UNIT..................WIN +1.00
Miami Heat -9......................1 UNIT............LOSS -1.03
LA Lakers -11......................1 UNIT..............LOSS -1.05
Washington Wizards +12.5......1 UNIT............LOSS -1.05
Philadelphia Flyers/Florida Panthers UNDER 5.5 goals..........1 UNIT........LOSS -1.31
Calgary Flames ML...................................... .................1 UNIT......WIN +1.00

TOTALS:

NCAABB: 7-3 (70%) +5.81 units
NBA: 1-4 (20%) -3.27 units
NHL: 1-1 (50%) -0.31 units

[PSABB]

Not a lot of good action on tap for the evening. Just a few plays, and small ones at that....

NCAAB:

UCLA +1.......................1 UNIT
UMKC -2.5.....................1 UNIT

NHL:

Boston ML........................1 UNIT
Montreal ML......................1 UNIT

Good luck tonight!

[Aristocles]

NBA:

I took SAS +2 1/2 but cannot get a number on Mavs game. If it I had gotten to it at 208 I would have taken U

[Aristocles]

Added The Citadel, LOL! 95% of the public has to be wrong

[PSABB]

NBA: I took SAS +2 1/2 but cannot get a number on Mavs game. If it I had gotten to it at 208 I would have taken U

I'm leaning Spurs as well, I just didn't want to make it an official play. Plus, I need to revisit some of the variables in the NBA tweaks I made so having a few nights break will be welcome. Good luck on your plays!

[PSABB]

Added The Citadel, LOL! 95% of the public has to be wrong

Ughhh 17-0 Charleston 5 minutes in....

[Aristocles]

LMAO! Bet almost nothing on it: a just for kicks wager.

I capped Spurs as a 0.24 favorite, a pk. So, I took them at 2 1/2.

[PSABB]

LMAO! Bet almost nothing on it: a just for kicks wager.

Whew...you'd be the first person I ever met that bet big money on the Citadel lol Even if it's just for kicks, hopefully they get a backdoor cover. Charleston is tough though, plus they're trying to improve their odds of taking first place in the South Division of the Southern Conference.

[PSABB]

2/17 RECAP

Would have been on here last night to recap, but got into crunching some data. A very good night again, going 3-1.

2-0 in NCAA hoops action as UMKC goes wire to wire against Western Illinois, and UCLA wins outright over Stanford. Another 1-1 split in the NHL as we're on the right side of Boston, but Montreal gets their hat handed to them by a much less-talented Oilers team. Not too worried about hockey, we'll go on a nice run soon and get things rolling there.

NCAAB:

UCLA +1.......................1 UNIT.....................WIN +1.00
UMKC -2.5.....................1 UNIT....................WIN +1.00

NHL:

Boston ML........................1 UNIT...................WIN +1.00
Montreal ML......................1 UNIT....................LOSS -1.19

OVERALL:

NCAABB: 9-3 (75%) +7.81 units
NBA: 1-4 (20%) -3.27 units
NHL: 2-2 (50%) -0.50 units

Should have a few selections for tonight....will post them around 6 PM.

[Goodfella10]

Interesting stuff. Looks promising so far for College Hoops. Keep up the good work.

[PSABB]

Interesting stuff. Looks promising so far for College Hoops. Keep up the good work.

Thanks. The predictive model is not new though; I've been using it for years....the "tweaks" to it, however, are the first ones I've made since 2008 though. Love the results for college hoops so far, and I think NBA and NHL won't be too far behind.

[GoggsViggs]

looks good so far bro. i hope your model likes Harvard and Louisville today.

[PSABB]

looks good so far bro. i hope your model likes Harvard and Louisville today.

Goggs...BIG revenge game for Cornell - Harvard crushed them 78-57 back in January - and the system has a variable which takes both revenge and motivation into account and applies a statistical figure to them. I run final numbers just before 6 PM; that's always seemed to work best. But as of right now, both of these games are too close to call with very sharp lines.

[PSABB]

OK, just finished running the final numbers crunch with the current lines and odds. Oddly enough, Connecticut wasn't looking like a play earlier, but when it went to +4, it tipped it to a play in the model. Anyway, here's the 3 selections for the night.

Penn -2..................1 UNIT (Most books I'm looking at now are at 2...if it goes to 2.5, buy it down)
Connecticut +4........1 UNIT (The Greek has it at +4, if your book doesn't, buy the 1/2 point to be safe)

In the NHL, take:

Anaheim.................1 UNIT on the ML at +105

That's it for tonight. A couple of other games came close, but as I said before, I'm not going to push plays that are "almost" in the system...I'll only put my $$$ where I feel I'm getting the best of it.

Good luck.

[Aristocles]

At your convenience, my picks are in a 'pm'. . . won't clutter your thread

[PSABB]

At your convenience, my picks are in a 'pm'. . . won't clutter your thread

It's cool, Aristocles...just PM'd you back. I'll be watching your plays...good luck.

[PSABB]

looks good so far bro. i hope your model likes Harvard and Louisville today.

Hey Goggs...nice call on Harvard.

[PSABB]

Not much to say other than it wasn't a great night.

It started off good with Penn easily covering, but Anaheim got their asses handed to them and UConn looked out of sync and a step slower than Louisville from the opening tip.

That being said, off nights will happen. That's why I never get too excited on great night, or too down on bad ones. The goal is long term profit. And tomorrow is a new day.


Penn -2..................1 UNIT....................WIN +1.00
Connecticut +4........1 UNIT...................LOSS -1.10
Anaheim.................1 UNIT...................LOSS -1.00


OVERALL:

NCAABB: 10-4 (71%) +7.71 units
NBA: 1-4 (20%) -3.27 units
NHL: 2-3 (40%) -1.50 units

Selections for tomorrow will be up by 10:30 or 11ish.

[PSABB]

OK, let's get this party started. Saturday selections are:

Davidson -5..........................2 UNITS
Iona -5.5..............................2 UNITS
San Diego State -11................2 UNITS (buy the 1/2 pt)
Dartmouth +12........................1 UNIT
Radford +12.5.........................1 UNIT

and in the NHL we have one game:

St. Louis ML...........................2 UNITS (got them right now at -129 on the ML, which is a GREAT value here)

6 games in all....best of luck to everyone today with whatever you bet!

[PSABB]

It was closer than what I had predicted...but way to go San Diego State!!!

[PSABB]

Iona with an easy win...maybe I should keep the pom pom thing going for luck!!!

[PSABB]

DAMMMIT....had some people over for dinner, and just noticed that with the line move WI-Milwaukee +6 would have been a great play for the evening. Too late to get it in or count it, but figured I'd throw it out there for anyone that's already played it.

[PSABB]

Gotta give a shout out to Davidson...that win makes it 3-0 on the 2 unit plays for the day, with the two 1 unit plays - Dartmouth and Radford - coming up short. By the way...did anyone bother to tell Radford they had a game today???

Waiting on St. Louis to finish up in the NHL....they're ahead 8-3!!! Then it's off to start looking at tomorrow's slate. I'll be back to recap later.

[PSABB]

2/19 RECAP

Nice night...4-2 for +5.86 units of profffffit!!!!


Davidson -5..........................2 UNITS.................WIN +2.00
Iona -5.5..............................2 UNITS.................WIN +2.00
San Diego State -11................2 UNITS................WIN +2.00
Dartmouth +12........................1 UNIT................LOSS -1.05
Radford +12.5.........................1 UNIT.................LOSS -1.09
St. Louis ML...........................2 UNITS.................WIN +2.00


Overall totals have been updated below, and I'm off to start looking at tomorrow's card.


OVERALL:

NCAABB: 13-6 (68%) +11.57 units
NBA: 1-4 (20%) -3.27 units
NHL: 3-3 (50%) +0.50 units

[PSABB]

No plays on the early games; just going to sit back, watch and enjoy.

I may have one or two selections up between 1-2 PM.

[PSABB]

Some great games this afternoon...but unfortunately, nothing that's on the card today or tonight fits my system, which is based on having a distinct statistical "edge". So enjoy the games, and best of luck on your wagers for the day. I'll be back tomorrow with some picks.

[jackmyhoggoff]

GREAT I like playing from BEHIND !!

[PSABB]

GREAT I like playing from BEHIND !!

Bad day??

[PSABB]

I will have 1-2 NCAABB picks for tonight's games up later on. I want to see if the lines move in our favor throughout the day. In the meantime, here's an NHL play for today's 2 PM game. Get it in quick if you're gonna play it!!!

Chicago/St.Louis OVER 5.5 goals..........1 UNIT

Good luck!

[PSABB]

4-2 Chicago with 7:20 left in the 2nd period. No need to watch the box score for the rest of the game...cash this puppy now.

Chicago/St.Louis OVER 5.5 goals..........1 UNIT......WIN +1.00


Will have an NCAAB play (maybe 2) up by 5:30 PM EST today.

OVERALL:

NCAABB: 13-6 (68%) +11.57 units
NBA: 1-4 (20%) -3.27 units
NHL: 4-3 (57%) +1.50 units

[Aristocles]

Had a bit of trouble with a new "borrowed" .pdf program and been offline for an hour or more, installing. . . Read your pm and checked here. I bet that game O5 1/2 also! Gets me back to ~even after a soccer/football meltdown earlier.

[PSABB]

Gets me back to ~even after a soccer/football meltdown earlier.

Only football I'm betting will be this fall...if we have games. Damn NFL and the Players Association better get down to business.