Tracking New Predictive Model

[PSABB]

OK, no sense waiting on this one as I have a feeling that the line is going to move against me in the next hour or so. Now, I normally don't play totals unless the system shows that there will be a 4 point minimum differential against the line, and tonight that's the case. Right now Syracuse-Villanova is hovering around 135.5 or 136, depending on your book. My system/model is showing that the final outcome of the game is going to be 141-142. So the play is going to be:

Syracuse/Villanova OVER 135 (buying the 1/2 point, hate playing totals with 1/2 pts)............1 UNIT

I'm only putting 1 unit on it because totals are just never something I play larger units on, even with the model telling me it's a good play. I'd rather lay higher units on the spread games where I see a big advantage.

So on day with a realllllly weak card, this will be the only other play of the night.

Good luck to all.

[Aristocles]

Lets get these teams scoring some baskets!

Edit: Sonuvabitch. Oh well, it was very close. We'll get 'em next time

[PSABB]

Well, Syracuse held up their end of the bargain, scoring one point more than the model predicted. Villanova, unfortunately, fell short of their output. Great game, with both teams really scoring freely in the 2nd half. We just needed one more basket to push, 3 points to win.

Syracuse/Villanova OVER 135............1 UNIT............LOSS -1.14

That's a 1-1 day, losing some juice. We'll pick it up tomorrow with some winners, looks like a nice slate of games.

OVERALL:

NCAABB: 13-7 (65%) +10.43 units
NBA: 1-4 (20%) -3.27 units
NHL: 4-3 (57%) +1.50 units

[PSABB]

Hope everyone is doing well (if there's anyone there...sometimes feels like I'm talking to myself in this thread).

College hoops selections for the evening are:

Vanderbilt -5................................1 UNIT (buy the 1/2 point)
South Carolina +1.5........................1 UNIT
Indiana State +6.5.........................1 UNIT
Michigan State +2.5.......................1 UNIT

I may have one more big NCAABB play and an NBA play...running some last minute numbers....stay tuned.

[PSABB]

Holding off on the NBA plays for the evening; I want to see how the changes I made to the system over the weekend work out before I make any recommendations.

I may have one more play for NCAA basketball later, but I want to see the line movement until around 7:30.

Adding an NHL play:

Carolina/NY Rangers UNDER 5.5.........1 UNIT

Best of luck to everyone tonight.

[jackmyhoggoff]

STARRING @ Photo !!

[PSABB]

STARRING @ Photo !!

She has a great ass, don't she???

[PSABB]

The night gets started off right with South Carolina....outright winner

[PSABB]

And another outright winner as Indiana State downs Northern Iowa 76-74

[LockPickMaster]

Does your system work for MLB

[PSABB]

Does your system work for MLB

Yes it does...can't wait for the MLB season to start!!!

[BrewMaster]

I think I found another thread to follow... Keep up the good work!

[PSABB]

2/22 RECAP

Sorry I didn't get around to recapping last night....was watching the Vanderbilt/Tenn game and crashed and burned a lot earlier than I usually do. Speaking of crashing/burning, last time I looked, Vanderbilt had a nice 9 point lead early in the second half, yet they wound up losing by 9. That monumental collapse prevented us from a nice 4-0 sweep in college hoops, which included 3 outright underdog winners.

Vanderbilt -5................................1 UNIT..................LOSS -1.12
South Carolina +1.5........................1 UNIT................WIN +1.00
Indiana State +6.5.........................1 UNIT.................WIN +1.00
Michigan State +2.5.......................1 UNIT.................WIN +1.00

In the NHL, Carolina scores 2 goals in the 3rd to put us over the 5.5 goal total. Kind of alternating wins and losses in hockey, which is typical...then all of a sudden I'll break out 4 or 5 wins in a row. It's coming.

Carolina/NY Rangers UNDER 5.5.........1 UNIT..............LOSS -1.40

The really good news is that the additional adjustments I made over the weekend for the NBA worked out nicely last night. The system's two selections would have been Indiana -2 and Charlotte -6.5, both of which were winners. So moving on I'll have some NBA selections too, and we'll look to add some additional $$$ to our pockets with those.

Back later tonight with some selections.

OVERALL:

NCAABB: 16-8 (66%) +12.31 units
NBA: 1-4 (20%) -3.27 units
NHL: 4-4 (50%) +0.10 units

[PSABB]

I think I found another thread to follow... Keep up the good work!

Thanks, Brew

[PSABB]

Whew....lots of good looking matchups tonight. Will have the selections up between 5:30 and 6 PM EST.

[PSABB]

Big night on tap, so let's get this hump day party started! I've got 8 selections tonight which are as follows:

UNLV +3..............................2 UNITS
New Mexico State +1.5.........2 UNITS
Miami FL +3.........................1 UNIT
Evansville +3.......................1 UNIT
Georgia State +3.5...............1 UNIT
Central Michigan +3...............1 UNIT

In the NBA we have one game:

Houston -5.5..................................... ......1 UNIT

** Note: The system also recommended Sacramento +14 as a very, very, very borderline play. I mean, it was right dead-solid on the cutoff number; not even a tenth or a hundredth of a percentage point over...which has never happened before in all of the years I've been using this model. If it was almost any other team, I'd play it...small. Being that it's the Kings, I'm gonna pass on this one and advise you to do the same. Just throwing it out there to track it.
And lastly, in the NHL we have one game:

Florida/Ottawa UNDER 5.5 goals................1 UNIT


Gonna head out with the little lady and the kids for a well-deserved dinner, but I'll be back later to update and recap. And as always, best of luck to everyone.

[chunk]

Match up on a couple of plays with you tonight. Good luck.

[PSABB]

Same to you, bro

[Aristocles]

GL, buddy

[PSABB]

GL, buddy

Right back at ya!

[PSABB]

Try as they might, Miami FL didn't "pull a Vandy" and held on for a nice outright win.

[PSABB]

2/23 RECAP

Well, last night was one of those nights where you get bitch-slapped to remind you of the things that you should or shouldn't be doing. I honestly made two errors last night that were rookie mistakes (and after 20+ years of doing this I should know better)...and sure enough they came back to haunt me.

My first mistake was in letting my personal perceptions cloud the system's recommendation on Sacramento vs. Orlando. Sacramento +14 should have been a play - see the note in post #51 - it fit into the parameters of the system. But because it was the Kings, I decided to pass on the game. And not only does Sacramento get the win, but they do it outright 111-105 in Orlando. That was a "win" that should have been added to the final tally.

The second mistake was that I should have bought the extra 1/2 point on a few occasions, but didn't. In the Houston-Cleveland game, a 1/2 point would have been a push rather than a loss. Why didn't I buy it? Because it was Cleveland. Again, personal perception. In the Georgia State-William & Mary game, buying the extra 1/2 point would have been a push instead of a loss as G-State falls 69-65. And most importantly, I should have bought the extra 1/2 point in the New Mexico State-San Jose State game, if for no other reason than I recommended it as a 2-unit play. Final score? SJ State 72-70.

Now don't get me wrong, I don't recommend buying 1/2 points on every single game. But usually when the spread is between 1.5 and 3.5 and I see key indicators that suggest it might be close according to my calculations as well, I like to give myself that little cushion. The bottom line...those simple errors would have turned 3 losses into pushes (saving a combined 4 units that were lost) as well as added another win at 1 unit. That's HUGE. And that's my bad.

Anyway, like I said...every now and again you need to be reminded of the basics. Overall it wasn't a devastating night, but to me any night with no profit or a loss of profit is considered unsuccessful. I'll do what I always do...review the numbers and see where things went wrong, so the same mistakes don't happen again. And tonight we'll get back to winning.


UNLV +3..............................2 UNITS.............WIN +2.00
New Mexico State +1.5.........2 UNITS.............LOSS -2.14
Miami FL +3.........................1 UNIT..............WIN +1.00
Evansville +3.......................1 UNIT..............LOSS -1.00
Georgia State +3.5...............1 UNIT..............LOSS -1.01
Central Michigan +3...............1 UNIT.............WIN +1.00

Houston -5.5..................................... .....1 UNIT.............LOSS -1.13

Florida/Ottawa UNDER 5.5 goals................1 UNIT...........LOSS -1.47


OVERALL:

NCAABB: 19-11 (63%) +12.16 units
NBA: 1-5 (17%) -4.40 units
NHL: 4-5 (44%) -1.37 units

[Axis]

Everyone has those nights...good work though...nice to see which of your plays coincide with mine...

[PSABB]

Everyone has those nights...good work though...nice to see which of your plays coincide with mine...

Thanks, Axis. I don't get too high or low with big wins or off nights. Just a little ticked at myself for some dumb mistakes. But, like I always say...it's a marathon, not a sprint.

[Axis]

Yea...I still make those plays getting sucked into the action...Normally it's when I play on the heavy favorite, when I damn well know I should just stay away if 65% of the public is on it...but sometimes it just seems so right haha

[PSABB]

Yea...I still make those plays getting sucked into the action...Normally it's when I play on the heavy favorite, when I damn well know I should just stay away if 65% of the public is on it...but sometimes it just seems so right haha

Sorry, was running my numbers most of the day.

The public has to be right sometimes, otherwise no one would wager. But I know what you mean.

[Axis]

Well yea haha...but when it's around 70% I try to stay away...

Looking forward to seeing your plays.

[chunk]

2/23 RECAP

Well, last night was one of those nights where you get bitch-slapped to remind you of the things that you should or shouldn't be doing. I honestly made two errors last night that were rookie mistakes (and after 20+ years of doing this I should know better)...and sure enough they came back to haunt me.

My first mistake was in letting my personal perceptions cloud the system's recommendation on Sacramento vs. Orlando. Sacramento +14 should have been a play - see the note in post #51 - it fit into the parameters of the system. But because it was the Kings, I decided to pass on the game. And not only does Sacramento get the win, but they do it outright 111-105 in Orlando. That was a "win" that should have been added to the final tally.

The second mistake was that I should have bought the extra 1/2 point on a few occasions, but didn't. In the Houston-Cleveland game, a 1/2 point would have been a push rather than a loss. Why didn't I buy it? Because it was Cleveland. Again, personal perception. In the Georgia State-William & Mary game, buying the extra 1/2 point would have been a push instead of a loss as G-State falls 69-65. And most importantly, I should have bought the extra 1/2 point in the New Mexico State-San Jose State game, if for no other reason than I recommended it as a 2-unit play. Final score? SJ State 72-70.

Now don't get me wrong, I don't recommend buying 1/2 points on every single game. But usually when the spread is between 1.5 and 3.5 and I see key indicators that suggest it might be close according to my calculations as well, I like to give myself that little cushion. The bottom line...those simple errors would have turned 3 losses into pushes (saving a combined 4 units that were lost) as well as added another win at 1 unit. That's HUGE. And that's my bad.

Anyway, like I said...every now and again you need to be reminded of the basics. Overall it wasn't a devastating night, but to me any night with no profit or a loss of profit is considered unsuccessful. I'll do what I always do...review the numbers and see where things went wrong, so the same mistakes don't happen again. And tonight we'll get back to winning.


UNLV +3..............................2 UNITS.............WIN +2.00
New Mexico State +1.5.........2 UNITS.............LOSS -2.14
Miami FL +3.........................1 UNIT..............WIN +1.00
Evansville +3.......................1 UNIT..............LOSS -1.00
Georgia State +3.5...............1 UNIT..............LOSS -1.01
Central Michigan +3...............1 UNIT.............WIN +1.00

Houston -5.5..................................... .....1 UNIT.............LOSS -1.13

Florida/Ottawa UNDER 5.5 goals................1 UNIT...........LOSS -1.47


OVERALL:

NCAABB: 19-11 (63%) +12.16 units
NBA: 1-5 (17%) -4.40 units
NHL: 4-5 (44%) -1.37 units

PSABB....curiosity question if you don't mind. I guess that you've explained why you buy points on occasion, but I wonder whether you have determined that it is profitable over time or is it something that you just do without hard data. Thanks in advance.

[PSABB]

Well yea haha...but when it's around 70% I try to stay away... Looking forward to seeing your plays.

I'll have them up around 5:30 or 6, as usual.

[Kuroudu]

Great job! Nice plays there, good luck!

[PSABB]

PSABB....curiosity question if you don't mind. I guess that you've explained why you buy points on occasion, but I wonder whether you have determined that it is profitable over time or is it something that you just do without hard data. Thanks in advance.

Don't mind at all. Buying points is something I only do if there are certain "key" data indicators I see. Obviously, books set a half point there for a reason. And a great example of that is the Houston-Cleveland game in the NBA last night. Two of the offensive components in my data screamed out to me that Cleveland would score big in this game although the system showed a clear advantage to Houston to cover. But being the stubborn bastard that I am...and foolishly assuming I wouldn't need the 1/2 point because it was the lowly Cavs and that Houston would score more...cost me the push and handed me a loss instead. Hindsight.

In the long run, you want to get the best value for your money, so buying points isn't always the best option. Houston was -113 on my book for the 1 unit, and buying them to -5 would have bumped it to -120+. Not something you want to do for every game, because if you lose, you've lost more. But in this situation, what was lost was much greater than what it would have cost to buy the 1/2 point. It all just depends on what the data is telling me, but it's not something I make a habit of doing.

Hope this answers your question.

[PSABB]

Great job! Nice plays there, good luck!

Thanks, Kuroudu

[Aristocles]

BOL, pal. Waiting for them.

[PSABB]

OK guys....there's a big card out there, but I'll be honest...the system isn't seeing a lot of good games on the agenda this evening. The lines are pretty sharp, at least according to my system. But we have a few gems that I'm going to pound on...

Gonzaga +4.................................2 UNITS
Western Carolina -10....................1 UNIT

In the NBA, we have...

Boston -4 (buy the 1/2 point here).................1 UNIT

and in the NHL we have....

Los Angeles Kings ML..................................2 UNITS
Chicago/Nashville Under 5.5.......................1 UNIT



Small card, but one I like. Best of luck tonight!

[PSABB]

BOL, pal. Waiting for them.

BOL right back at ya!