This System Picks Favorites!!!

[GGRIF82]

Witch one did you lose?

[Romanov]

Witch one did you lose?

Tennessee (-220) 2.2 to win 1
St Johns (-155) 1.55 to win 1
Arizona St (-120) 1.2 to win 1

+.45 on the night. +23.45 since the start of this system (February 12th 2011)

well done. if Idaho can come through ill have salvaged out a pretty decent night too

I see Idaho won by 3. Nice hit man! Have you looked into web queries?

Good night! SJ dropped to -135

Yeah I see that now. If I had run the numbers right before gametime St Johns wouldn't have been a play with that line movement. More often than not, these favorites it spits out are on the right side of the line movements.

Another good night Rommy....Congratulations!!

Yep. +.45 is better than nothing.

[shaggy3000]

i have not. today is the first day ive gotten off work in 4 weeks. its been super busy but ill check it out soon. still have a bunch of stuff to do but id like to do that for baseball for sure

[Romanov]

I hate friday games. Note the to win # for cornell equals the at risk # for Columbia

5dimes:

Cornell (-260) 2.6 to win 1
Columbia (-138) 1 to win .7246

[Romanov]

Gonna start tracking expected value for fun:

E(x) = -.01 units

[shaggy3000]

man i just googled it. what in the hell. you think i graduated from NASA!

[Romanov]

I don't like have an expected loss... gonna try and play around with unit sizes to get it into the positive

edit for shag: its not that bad. download openoffice if you have a shitty excel version.

[shaggy3000]

are you planning on doing this for baseball?

[Romanov]

are you planning on doing this for baseball?

nope. not planning on it. i think I am going to tail shivabowl

[shaggy3000]

o didnt know Shiva had a system for it. that works. i did a lot of following people and touts last year and did alright but as im becoming a little bit better at this gambling thing i think i might make even more of my own picks this year.

its been going pretty well since i quit worrying about the spread

[Romanov]

o didnt know Shiva had a system for it. that works. i did a lot of following people and touts last year and did alright but as im becoming a little bit better at this gambling thing i think i might make even more of my own picks this year. its been going pretty well since i quit worrying about the spread

lol yeah. just don't bet on huge MLs in ncaab. I've lost on over -700 ml's before (not with this system. I don't play over -500)

[shaggy3000]

like i said i lost 900 on Texas and have had a couple other huge losers. they werent the first and they damn sure wont be the last. but im going to keep playing them because they win 80% of the time and even higher with some decent homework

[Romanov]

like i said i lost 900 on Texas and have had a couple other huge losers. they werent the first and they damn sure wont be the last. but im going to keep playing them because they win 80% of the time and even higher with some decent homework

if you want to have a good idea of how often a moneyline will hit:

(favorite ML price) / (100+favorite ML price) = FAV%

100/(dog ML price +100) = DOG%

FAV% + DOG% = TOTAL%

FAV% / TOTAL% = Favorite's probability to win the game

[shaggy3000]

i hope thats not spos to be common knowledge in the gambling world cause its news to me

[Brian891]

thanks for the formulas romanov. your system has been doing pretty damn well so far.

[Romanov]

i hope thats not spos to be common knowledge in the gambling world cause its news to me

Lol well use it now. If you see a ML that says a team only wins 55% of the time and you think they win 3/4, you have to ask yourself why vegas thinks the underdog is so much better than you do.

thanks for the formulas romanov. your system has been doing pretty damn well so far.

thank you man. gonna post a decimal odds and american odds example in a minute

[Romanov]

so right now on pinnacle cornell is -283 and brown is +250

283/(283+100) = .7389
100/(250+100) = .2857

.7389+.2857 = 1.0246

probabilities have to = 1 so...

.7389/ 1.0246 = .7212 = Cornell has a 72% probability to win the game (according to Pinnacle)
.2857/1.0246 = .2788 = Brown has a 28% probability to win the game (according to pinnacle)

[Romanov]

now for decimal odds (an easier way). for the first part, all we do instead of adding the 100's and stuff is plug the given decimal odds into 1/x

cornel's decimal odds = 1.353
browns = 3.5

so...

1/1.353 = .739
1/3.5 = .2857

add em up = .739+.2857 = 1.0247

and divide

.739/1.0247 = Cornell's prob = .7212 = 72% win
.2857/1.0247 = .2788 = 28%

Obviously you don't need to do both the dog and fav because you just use the rule (1-P) = P' to get the opposing probability

BOL

[Romanov]

credit goes to Ganchrow

[shaggy3000]

you got a late night winner?

[Titan_12]

I thought you were dead in the water tonight but Cornell can up with the win and Columbia is now in OT (after being down by 10+ pts). Great job!

[Titan_12]

Second Overtime

[Romanov]

you got a late night winner?

Sorry. Nothing man.

I thought you were dead in the water tonight but Cornell can up with the win and Columbia is now in OT (after being down by 10+ pts). Great job!

Cornell came through but Columbia died out. I suck at Fridays. I never play small-time schools except for friday (because no big schools play on friday) and I never seem to do as well. At least I didn't lose any tonight. Came out exactly even. Hopefully if you tailed you tailed the right unit sizes and came out +/- 0 as well.

See you in the morning.

[BigOrangeBrother]

Played your two picks along with GGRIF82's Elon pick for a 2-1 record for the night. I'll take it for a Friday night. Usually Fridays and Sundays are bad for me. Thanks for the plays. I'm loving your system.....look forward to your plays today.

[sicky123]

Let me know about the PAC10 POM fits brother !

gl today

[ShivaBowl]

Good Luck Today Romanov
If you have the time, what do you think?
12:00 PM ET Duquesne Dukes, +3.5
1:30 PM ET Georgia Bulldogs, +4.5
2:00 PM ET Rhode Island Rams, +1
8:00 PM ET North Carolina Tar Heels, M/L
10:00 PM ET Colorado State Rams, +12

[Romanov]

Was having trouble with my computer. Doin the plays right now.

[Romanov]

3/5 plays. Let the Shit hit the fan:

Kansas State (-1250) 12.5 to win 1
Michigan State (+110) .91 to win 1
UCONN (-145) 1.45 to win 1
Mississippi St (-200) 2 to win 1
Oklahoma (-105) 1.05 to win 1
North Carolina (-115) 1.15 to win 1
Colorado (-185) 1.85 to win 1
UCLA (-130) 1.3 to win 1

Be wary if you tail. I have a feeling I am going to go up in flames today. Line movement is bad on a lot of these games. Shiva, I like UNC moneyline. George +4.5 not bad either but is it Alabama's senior day?

[allenc85]

It is - but we only have 1 senior (Hines) I'd be weary going against Bama at home, they play pretty strong at home...

[sicky123]

DOes UCLA fit the POM system ?

[Romanov]

It is - but we only have 1 senior (Hines) I'd be weary going against Bama at home, they play pretty strong at home...

Mmk. Hopefully shiva sees that. I'm not playing it but he was considering it. Thanks

DOes UCLA fit the POM system ?

As of now. I locked it in because I'm not going to be around my computer at the UCLA gametime. If UCLA gets bet down to being a pk or not favored I would stay away

[IAMWINNER]

I'm on UCLA ML for ten units (praying)

[Romanov]

I'm on UCLA ML for ten units (praying)

You have 5-20% of your bankroll on an almost even money fav on the road?

[IAMWINNER]

You have 5-20% of your bankroll on an almost even money fav on the road?

I know, scary. How do you feel about the UCLA game. What % do you have them winning on ML. I am killing in baseball so any money I lose I will make in baseball.

[Romanov]

I know, scary. How do you feel about the UCLA game. What % do you have them winning on ML. I am killing in baseball so any money I lose I will make in baseball.

its not looking good. line mvmt and public % looks like a wsu win