NCAA simulations beta 1.1 predictions thread

[netinfo]

The simulated picks are doing quite well so far, keep it up!

netinfo

[bustabook]

here are most of the plays for today, 12/18:


UCSB @ Montana St (-4) 136
Average Score: UCSB 73 - Montana St 73 (Sim line: PK, 146)
Outright wins: UCSB 485 - Montana St 485 (UCSB 50.0%)
ATS wins: UCSB 587 - Montana St 399 (UCSB 59.5%)
O/U: Over 753 - Under 219 (Over 77.5%)

San Jose St @ UC Irvine (-2.5) 140.5
Average Score: San Jose St 78 - UC Irvine 80 (Sim line: UC Irvine -2, 158)
Outright wins: San Jose St 458 - UC Irvine 519 (UC Irvine 53.1%)
ATS wins: San Jose St 533 - UC Irvine 467 (San Jose St 53.3%)
O/U: Over 903 - Under 97 (Over 90.3%)

Utah State @ Lg Beach St (4) 142
Average Score: Utah State 76 - Lg Beach St 70 (Sim line: Utah State -6, 146)
Outright wins: Utah State 642 - Lg Beach St 332 (Utah State 65.9%)
ATS wins: Utah State 548 - Lg Beach St 433 (Utah State 55.9%)
O/U: Over 592 - Under 375 (Over 61.2%)

Drexel @ Cal St Nrdge (-3) 138
Average Score: Drexel 71 - Cal St Nrdge 73 (Sim line: Cal St Nrdge -2, 144)
Outright wins: Drexel 424 - Cal St Nrdge 551 (Cal St Nrdge 56.5%)
ATS wins: Drexel 505 - Cal St Nrdge 465 (Drexel 52.1%)
O/U: Over 642 - Under 336 (Over 65.6%)

---------------

Side plays:
UCSB (+4)
Utah State (-4)

---------------

i didnt get a chance to adjust the totals.. i will try to do it tonight and backtest a little bit with it..

[MUHerd37]

I really like Utah St. -4.

[bustabook]

nice... hope you're right

[bustabook]

i'm running new simulations now with an adjustment for the over/unders.. it should only slightly change the sides, and should not change any of those plays.. GL

[vinwon8]

Bust, did my suggestion in post #38 help. Also on today's card Long Beach St. is home for the first time, so I used all stats. Our sims seem to be in rythem with each other, which is always good to see. Best of luck buddy!! By the way in the NBA our sims agree on three sides, and six totals. That's a great %. GL today

[bustabook]

vin.. i definately took note of that post, and i will probably implement something like that in the next version.. but i wanted to run this model here for a bit, unchanged, to get a decent sample size so that then i can figure out what to do with it.

GL tonight..

[bustabook]

ok, here are all plays for 12/18:

UCSB @ Montana St (-4) 136
Average Score: UCSB 71 - Montana St 70 (Sim line: UCSB -1, 141)
Outright wins: UCSB 509 - Montana St 468 (UCSB 52.1%)
ATS wins: UCSB 625 - Montana St 336 (UCSB 65.0%)
O/U: Over 618 - Under 356 (Over 63.4%)

San Jose St @ UC Irvine (-1) 140
Average Score: San Jose St 77 - UC Irvine 79 (Sim line: UC Irvine -2, 156)
Outright wins: San Jose St 441 - UC Irvine 528 (UC Irvine 54.5%)
ATS wins: San Jose St 472 - UC Irvine 501 (UC Irvine 51.5%)
O/U: Over 863 - Under 119 (Over 87.9%)

Utah State @ Lg Beach St (4) 141
Average Score: Utah State 72 - Lg Beach St 67 (Sim line: Utah State -5, 139)
Outright wins: Utah State 625 - Lg Beach St 340 (Utah State 64.8%)
ATS wins: Utah State 523 - Lg Beach St 444 (Utah State 54.1%)
O/U: Over 420 - Under 546 (Under 56.5%)

Drexel @ Cal St Nrdge (-3) 138
Average Score: Drexel 69 - Cal St Nrdge 71 (Sim line: Cal St Nrdge -2, 140)
Outright wins: Drexel 433 - Cal St Nrdge 536 (Cal St Nrdge 55.3%)
ATS wins: Drexel 511 - Cal St Nrdge 458 (Drexel 52.7%)
O/U: Over 521 - Under 451 (Over 53.6%)

Pacific @ St Marys (-10.5) 135
Average Score: Pacific 61 - St Marys 76 (Sim line: St Marys -15, 137)
Outright wins: Pacific 129 - St Marys 853 (St Marys 86.9%)
ATS wins: Pacific 369 - St Marys 631 (St Marys 63.1%)
O/U: Over 528 - Under 438 (Over 54.7%)

N Mex State @ Pepperdine (-2) 159.5
Average Score: N Mex State 75 - Pepperdine 77 (Sim line: Pepperdine -2, 152)
Outright wins: N Mex State 422 - Pepperdine 548 (Pepperdine 56.5%)
ATS wins: N Mex State 489 - Pepperdine 477 (N Mex State 50.6%)
O/U: Over 305 - Under 695 (Under 69.5%)

(6 games)
-----------------

Side plays:
UCSB (+4)
Utah State (-4)
St Marys (-10.5)

O/U plays:
UCSB/Montana State Over 136
SJSU/UC Irvine Over 140
Utah State/LBSU Under 141
Pacific/St Marys Over 135
NM State/Pepperdine Under 159.5

------------------

GL

[vinwon8]

I agree on 2 of 3 sides, have mont. st. -4. Our sims are similar on the totals. GL BUSTA. may we both be

[bustabook]

Summary, 12/18:

Side plays:
UCSB (+4)
Utah State (-4)
St Marys (-10.5)

O/U plays:
UCSB/Montana State Over 136
SJSU/UC Irvine Over 140
Utah State/LBSU Under 141
Pacific/St Marys Over 135
NM State/Pepperdine Under 159.5

------------------
5-3, +1.7 Units

Overall:
39-27 (59%), +9.3 Units
------------------

Good night tonight.. I will take 5-3 everyday. The O/U adjustment seemed to do very well tonight, so that is a big relief on my end.

Anyway, big card for saturday... i will start running plays now and get them up as they finish.

GL

[bustabook]

These are the games i am running for today, if you have any that you would like me to add to this list.. post it here.

Michigan/Kansas
N Colorado/Oklahoma
N Carolina/Texas
Miss State/Houston
W Virginia/Cleveland St
Stanford/NW
UCLA/ND
Rice/LSU
Xavier/Butler
Austin Peay/Kentucky
Miami/FAU
W Kentucky/Lousiville
Gonzaga/Duke
Ball State/Purdue
Tennessee/USC
Memphis/UMass
UAB/S Alabama
SDSU/Arizona St
Richmond/Florida
Drake/Iowa
Temple/Seton Hall
Illinois/Georgia
Kansas St/Alabama
Portland/Washington

------------------

I am not even sure if there are people following this thread, but i will keep it up for record keeping's sake.

GL

[netinfo]

I am not even sure if there are people following this thread, but i will keep it up for record keeping's sake.

Hey bro, I'm following this thread and very interested in your simulations! Keep on posting! If the simulations can continue to produce near 60% overall, and do so with a sufficiently large sample size, then you've got yourself a golden system.

netinfo

[2daBank]

cant wait to see what you come up with today....gl and keep up the good work

[sonnybaby]

IPFW vs Michigan State can u run this as well for us busta?

[$Burm$]

lets do work

[dchecks]

Hey Busta can you run the VCU game thanks!!!

[flipside52]

Busta --- Been following your NCAAB as well as your NBA sims. Keep it going.. Good Work !

Flip...

[cappinthepigs]

I follow and you;re doing great!

[bustabook]

VCU/Tulane - ADDED

sonny, i will run IUPU/Michigan St but i don't have a total for that game... i will get that one up just before gametime, that is the earliest i can post it.

[JGuer04]

hey man very impressive stuff lookin forward to your stuff today was gonna ask for the sim for the michigan state game if you get a chance thanks man keep it up

[bustabook]

since i am running the games and posting simultaneously.. i will not be posting the %'s associated with the plays.. however i can add them later if any of you are doing your own record keeping at home.

anyway, here are the first few plays for 12/19:

Michigan (+19.5)
Northern Colorado (+15.5)
Northern Colorado/Oklahoma Under 145.5
Texas (-6)
UNC/Texas Under 156.5

[vinwon8]

Bust, you might want to check your stats on the Mich@Kan game. Got your back buddy!!!! GL TODAY

[ezmoney]

Can you run the Georgetown game?

[bustabook]

ezmoney... yes i can run that game for you, it will be up well before gametime.

vin, thanks man, its actually michigan (+19.5)

here are a couple more plays for you guys:

Mississippi St (-3)
Mississippi St/Houston Under 163
W Virginia (-14.5)
W Virginia/Cleveland St Over 132
IPFW (+27)
Stanford (+5.5)
VCU (-4.5)
VCU/Tulane Under 135

------------------

i am still simulating plenty of games, stay tuned for additions.

[TGoat]

I am not even sure if there are people following this thread, but i will keep it up for record keeping's sake.

Following closely. Your latest tweak causes me a slight concern regarding sides, but let's see how it goes.

since i am running the games and posting simultaneously.. i will not be posting the %'s associated with the plays.. however i can add them later if any of you are doing your own record keeping at home.

If posting the percentages like you were doing before, and also with the NBA games is a pain then don't worry about it. But if you could post them like you were doing...

sonny, i will run IUPU/Michigan St but i don't have a total for that game...

Re: totals--Here in Vegas you might be able to bet one college total for every ten games. My suggestion (request) would be not to worry about whether or not a game has a total and concentrate on sides. (Which goes back to my concern about the tweak.) If it has a total, fine, if it doesn't, fine. In other words post all college games please...if possible.

[bustabook]

goat.. the only reason i began running only the games with lines is because that saves me from having to run every game.. LOL.

today, for instance.. i am probably going to run 30 games.. thats 30 x 30 minutes each. i can run multiple sims at once but it eats up the computer memory (and slows down simulations), making it impossible to do almost anything else. i am doing this on a laptop computer in my living room, LOL. while i would love to run all games it isn't really practical.

i don't mind emailing the percentages for all games to you if you would like..

[bubbls]

Busta:

Will you be doing NBA plays today

[$Burm$]

bubbls, the nba ones are in the nba forum..i think busta said that hell put them up later tonight before the first games

[bubbls]

Thanks

[TGoat]

goat.. the only reason i began running only the games with lines is because that saves me from having to run every game.. LOL.

today, for instance.. i am probably going to run 30 games.. thats 30 x 30 minutes each. i can run multiple sims at once but it eats up the computer memory (and slows down simulations), making it impossible to do almost anything else. i am doing this on a laptop computer in my living room, LOL. while i would love to run all games it isn't really practical.

i don't mind emailing the percentages for all games to you if you would like..

I understand. Just keep doing things the way you're doing them. Make it the easiest on yourself.

We'll go from there.

[bustabook]

more plays for 12/19:

UCLA/Notre Dame Under 144
Rice (+12)
Rice/LSU Over 126
Xavier (+6)
Xavier/Butler Over 136
Kenucky (-23.5)
Austin Peay/Kentucky Under 140.5
FAU (+16.5)
Miami/FAU Under 139
Louisville (-9.5)
WKY/Lousiville Under 140

[bustabook]

more plays, BOL everyone..

Duke (-8)
Gonzaga/Duke Under 153.5
Ball St/Purdue Over 123
Tennessee (-11)
Tennessee/USC Over 127
UMass (+13.5)
Memphis/UMass Under 141.5
South Alabama (+4.5)
UAB/South Alabama Under 132.5

[bustabook]

By the way...

I know that it may be uncomfortable playing so many plays a day, and i have been getting ALOT of requests to narrow down the list of plays into a smaller list of stronger plays.

With the help of TGoat, i have been studying the results over the length of the thread and have found some pretty significant "sweet spots" in the percentages w/regard to sides and totals.

Since so many of you wanted a smaller list of stronger plays, i am starting an e-mail list. I will still be posting ALL plays here daily, but without the simulations and percentages. So if you play all plays equally, as the system suggests.. than disregard this post and just continue watching the thread.. nothing will change.

However.. If you would like to be included in this list, simply PM me with your current e-mail address and i will add you. I will probably start sending out e-mails today or tomorrow.

GL

[bustabook]

i already posted this in the NBA forum section and it will apply here as well... BOL everyone.

[bustabook]

here is the final list of plays for today, 12/19:

Michigan (+19.5)
Northern Colorado (+15.5)
Northern Colorado/Oklahoma Under 145.5
Texas (-6)
UNC/Texas Under 156.5
Mississippi St (-3)
Mississippi St/Houston Under 163
W Virginia (-14.5)
W Virginia/Cleveland St Over 132
IPFW (+27)
Stanford (+5.5)
VCU (-4.5)
VCU/Tulane Under 135
UCLA/Notre Dame Under 144
Rice (+12)
Rice/LSU Over 126
Xavier (+6)
Xavier/Butler Over 136
Kenucky (-23.5)
Austin Peay/Kentucky Under 140.5
FAU (+16.5)
Miami/FAU Under 139
Louisville (-9.5)
WKY/Lousiville Under 140
Duke (-8)
Gonzaga/Duke Under 153.5
Ball St/Purdue Over 123
Tennessee (-11)
Tennessee/USC Over 127
UMass (+13.5)
Memphis/UMass Under 141.5
South Alabama (+4.5)
UAB/South Alabama Under 132.5
------------------------------------------NEW PLAYS
Arizona St (-3)
SDSU/Arizona St Over 124.5
Florida (-7)
Richmond/Florida Under 129.5
Iowa (-6)
Drake/Iowa Over 136
Temple (+4.5)
Temple/Seton Hall Under 134
Illinois (-9)
Illinois/Georgia Under 135.5
Alabama (+3)
Kansas St/Alabama Under 141.5
Washington (-9.5)
Portland/Washington Under 149.5
Old Dominion (+8.5)

GL everyone, looking about even so far...