NCAA simulations beta 1.1 predictions thread

[bustabook]

I have been working on a simulation program for NBA games, and I am going to use this thread to post plays and keep track of my record..

this thread uses a model similar to the NBA model here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...ns-thread.html

[bustabook]

I only have time to get one play up before the 10 o'clock games start, but i will post it to see how it goes...

BYU @ Fresno St. (7.5) 140 (1000 simulations)
Average Score: BYU 72 - Fresno St. 66 (sim line: BYU -6, 138)
Outright wins: BYU 664 - Fresno St. 310 (BYU 68.2%)
ATS wins: BYU 466 - Fresno St. 534 (Fresno State 53.4%)
O/U: Over 420 - Under 558 (Under 57.0%)

-----------------

BYU/Fresno State Under 140

[bustabook]

i have no idea what will happen with this model, as i just put it together tonight as an offspring of the NBA model. it uses the same statistics and is simulated the same way. i have had some success with the other model and i hope it translates to the college game.

GL

[bustabook]

another play is Arizona and the Arizona/SDSU Under 137.

[bustabook]

Arizona @ San Diego St. (-8.5) 137
Average Score: Arizona 66 - San Diego St. 68 (sim line: SDSU -2, 134)
Outright wins: Arizona 417 - San Diego St. 550 (SDSU 56.9%)
ATS wins: Arizona 689 - San Diego St. 311 (Arizona 68.9%)
O/U: Over 397 - Under 574 (Under 59.1%)

So, for 12/12 the plays are:

Arizona (+8.5)
BYU/Fresno State Under 140
Arizona/SDSU Under 137

[zeusky]

I have been following your thread in the NBA forum....thanks for keeping NCAA in your vision as well....keep up the good work man!!

[bustabook]

thanks zeus, love the support...

this model is in the very infant stages of development but i have the same optimism for this that i do for the NBA system.. hopefully i'll get the same help and input from the NCAA forum that i have from the NBA forum.. it really helps alot, and it also serves as motivation.

as for tonight's plays, looks like we will end up 2-1.. not a bad start.

[mlb]

IM IN!!! you know that ... this week i only have 1 final so i should be able to give you some better evaluations of games as the week goes on and into january!!!

[bustabook]

mlb... i dont recommend playing the NCAA system until i get a better feel for it.. results have been somewhat erratic in backtesting so far. i will be working on it, though.. just give it some time.

[mlb]

for sure .... its a completely different type of game so probably safe

[mlb]

i wont be good for anything in return to you until baseball season if you bet baseball .. but i can give you better evals of the games going forward if it would help anything

[bustabook]

Summary, 12/12:

Side plays:
Arizona (+8.5)

O/U plays:
BYU/Fresno State Under 140
Arizona/SDSU Under 137

---------------------
2-1, +0.9 Units

Overall:
2-1, +0.9 Units
---------------------

If you haven't seen my thread in the NBA handicapping section, the system works like this... i run simulations (usually 1000) of a game, which returns an average score for both teams along with ATS and O/U winners (and percentages). i will post the plays so you dont have to search through the simulation report to find them, but if i ever forget or dont have time.. the plays are any that are 54% or better.

while i have had some success in the NBA simulations, i dont recommend playing the NCAA basketball plays just yet. the NCAA game is much different than the NBA game and each presents its own set of problems.. i will be working on it and i am confident that i can make the adjustments necessary to produce winning plays..

anyway, BOL and talk to you soon.

[bustabook]

mlb... it definately helps.

they say the best way to learn something is to try and teach it, so me trying to tell people how it works actually helps ME as much as you.

thanks for the support.. GL

[bustabook]

Official plays, 12/13:

La.-Monroe @ North Texas (-12.5) 150
Average Score: La.-Monroe 70 - North Texas 82 (sim line: NoTex -12, 152)
Outright wins: La.-Monroe 178 - North Texas 805 (North Texas 81.9%)
ATS wins: La.-Monroe 494 - North Texas 506 (North Texas 50.6%)
O/U: Over 552 - Under 428 (Over 56.3%)

Ill.-Chicago @ DePaul (-6.5) 119
Average Score: Ill.-Chicago 51 - DePaul 61 (sim line: DePaul -10, 112)
Outright wins: Ill.-Chicago 206 - DePaul 770 (DePaul 78.9%)
ATS wins: Ill.-Chicago 387 - DePaul 613 (DePaul 61.3%)
O/U: Over 289 - Under 678 (Under 70.1%)

Rhode Island @ Boston College (-4.5) 150
Average Score: Rhode Island 81 - Boston College 72 (sim line: Rhode Island -9, 153)
Outright wins: Rhode Island 727 - Boston College 249 (Rhode Island 74.5%)
ATS wins: Rhode Island 831 - Boston College 169 (Rhode Island 83.1%)
O/U: Over 569 - Under 412 (Over 58.0%)

Cincinnati @ Xavier (-3.5) 133
Average Score: Cincinnati 66 - Xavier 78 (sim line: Xavier -12, 144)
Outright wins: Cincinnati 170 - Xavier 808 (Xavier 82.6%)
ATS wins: Cincinnati 257 - Xavier 743 (Xavier 74.3%)
O/U: Over 777 - Under 201 (Over 79.4%)

New Mexico St. @ UTEP (-16.5) 148.5
Average Score: New Mexico St. 61 - UTEP 90 (sim line: UTEP -29, 151)
Outright wins: New Mexico St. 21 - UTEP 976 (UTEP 97.9%)
ATS wins: New Mexico St. 194 - UTEP 806 (UTEP 80.6%)
O/U: Over 551 - Under 449 (Over 55.1%)

---------------------

Side plays:
Depaul (-6.5)
Rhode Island (+4.5)
Xavier (-3.5)
UTEP (-16.5)

O/U plays:

La.-Monroe/North Texas Over 150
Ill.-Chicago/DePaul Under 119
Rhode Island/Boston College Over 150
Cincinnati/Xavier Over 133
New Mexico State/UTEP Over 148.5


----------------------

i have omitted O/U plays for today until i get a better feel for the program and its tendencies.. i may add plays later depending on how these fare.

GL

*DISCLAIMER* DO NOT TAIL.. I have NO idea what is going to happen here.. these plays are pretty "aggressive".. LOL

[bustabook]

UC Davis @ Stanford (-17) 145
Average Score: UC Davis 68 - Stanford 81 (sim line: Stanford -13, 149)
Outright wins: UC Davis 162 - Stanford 819 (Standfor 83.5%)
ATS wins: UC Davis 579 - Stanford 395 (UC Davis 59.4%)
O/U: Over 612 - Under 370 (Over 62.3%)

-------------------

Adding play:
UC Davis (+17) <-------- it is at +19 now at most books

[bustabook]

Side plays:
Depaul (-6.5)
Rhode Island (+4.5)
Xavier (-3.5)
UTEP (-16.5)
UC Davis (+17)

----------------------
4-1, +2.9 Units

Overall:
6-2, +3.8 Units
-----------------------

Good start to the thread, hope it keeps up.

[zeusky]

Good job Busta; it seems the NCAA model is working well. Do you think NCAA is easier to predict? I seem to have better luck with the spreads in NCAA than in NBA; don't know whether it's just me or not. Your model I think might provide a better answer during the next couple of weeks. Best of luck!!

[bustabook]

zeus... its hard to say just yet... but we will see.

i have been working on totals for the past couple of hours and im running some simulations now to see how it is working.

[iceaxe56]

you might want to try and picking championship wrestling --its easier than the nba--but if you are on who the refs take you will be all right--o/u don't get that close for a reason

[Glitch]

nice, glad to see you posting here in the ncaab thread.....your sim. is very interesting and respectable and so far it seems to be killing in college. keep up the good work man.

[bustabook]

thanks glitch.. thanks for the support. the NCAA system is still in the infant stage so i expect some corrections (losing days) in the coming days. but i have been working on it pretty hard and i'm hoping the results show.

iceaxe.. i like the championship wrestling idea but first i want to tackle some other things, like hotdog eating and lawnmower racing.

[Meestermike]

I am intrigued by both simulation programs and also impressed by both. Thanks for your very hard and intricate work bustab.

[bustabook]

Official plays, 12/14:

GA Tech @ Chattanooga (15) 145
Average Score: GA Tech 72 - Chattanooga 63 (Sim line: GA Tech -9, 135)
Outright wins: GA Tech 721 - Chattanooga 259 (GA Tech 73.6%)
ATS wins: GA Tech 312 - Chattanooga 667 (Chattanooga 68.1%)
O/U: Over 202 - Under 781 (Under 79.5%)

Fla Atlantic @ New Orleans (-3) 140
Average Score: Fla Atlantic 74 - New Orleans 75 (Sim line: New Orleans -1, 149)
Outright wins: Fla Atlantic 444 - New Orleans 537 (New Orleans 54.7%)
ATS wins: Fla Atlantic 517 - New Orleans 459 (Fla Atlantic 53.0%)
O/U: Over 710 - Under 256 (Over 73.5%)

Troy @ Houston (-13.5) 173
Average Score: Troy 79 - Houston 93 (Sim line: Houston -14, 172)
Outright wins: Troy 182 - Houston 799 (Houston 81.4%)
ATS wins: Troy 515 - Houston 485 (Troy 51.5%)
O/U: Over 463 - Under 504 (Under 52.1%)

(3 games)
-------------------

Side plays:
Chattanooga (+15)

O/U plays:
Georgia Tech/Chattanooga Under 145
Fla Atlantic/New Orleans Over 140

(3 plays)
--------------------

these are the only 3 games with sides and totals so far for today.

going foward, i am only going to be simulating games with lined sides AND totals for daily plays but if you have a request for a game i dont have, just post it and i will be happy to run a set of simulations for you.

BOL today boys, talk to you soon.

[bustabook]

thanks mike... support is always appreciated, as well as comments/questions/concerns.

[iceaxe56]

got the best system in the world,works 80% of the time--take a game that you truly love the pointspread on--and then bet against it--gl

[mlb]

iceaxe im with you on that ... id say almost every spread that seems to good to be true .. is

busta... im really curious to see the ncaa one tonight because I have Gtech, New Orleans and Houston..
I'm just watching as of right now, but I can't wait to see what gives ... but im going hard back on nba again tonight...GL

[bustabook]

Side plays:
Chattanooga (+15)

O/U plays:
Georgia Tech/Chattanooga Under 145
Fla Atlantic/New Orleans Over 140

----------------
0-3, -3.3 Units


Overall:
6-5, +0.5 Units
----------------

Yuck, 0-3... plays weren't even in the ballpark either. i'm going to give this system another couple of days and if nothing improves i'm going to start from scratch again.

i will be running plays and will get them up ASAP.

[zeusky]

Dont worry man!! You have our support!! GL

[bustabook]

thanks zues...

here are the plays for today, 12/15:


Georgia St @ Florida St (-17) 115.5
Average Score: Georgia St 52 - Florida St 63 (Sim line: Florida St -11, 115)
Outright wins: Georgia St 166 - Florida St 804 (Florida St 82.9%)
ATS wins: Georgia St 685 - Florida St 276 (Georgia St 71.3%)
O/U: Over 499 - Under 501 (Under 50.1%)

Wyoming @ Tennessee (-22.5) 154.5
Average Score: Wyoming 59 - Tennessee 83 (Sim line: Tennessee -24, 142)
Outright wins: Wyoming 30 - Tennessee 965 (Tennessee 97.0%)
ATS wins: Wyoming 448 - Tennessee 552 (Tennessee 55.2%)
O/U: Over 156 - Under 844 (Under 84.4%)

N Illinois @ Minnesota (-25) 135
Average Score: N Illinois 59 - Minnesota 73 (Sim line: Minnesota -14, 132)
Outright wins: N Illinois 128 - Minnesota 851 (Minnesota 86.9%)
ATS wins: N Illinois 790 - Minnesota 186 (N Illinois 80.9%)
O/U: Over 362 - Under 616 (Under 63.0%)

LA Lafayette @ S Mississippi (-8.5) 139
Average Score: LA Lafayette 72 - S Mississippi 87 (Sim line: S Mississippi -15, 159)
Outright wins: LA Lafayette 113 - S Mississippi 865 (S Mississippi 88.4%)
ATS wins: LA Lafayette 310 - S Mississippi 690 (S Mississippi 69.0%)
O/U: Over 924 - Under 67 (Over 93.2%)

Rider @ Rutgers (-7) 136.5
Average Score: Rider 67 - Rutgers 71 (Sim line: Rutgers -4, 138)
Outright wins: Rider 373 - Rutgers 597 (Rutgers 61.5%)
ATS wins: Rider 583 - Rutgers 395 (Rider 59.6%)
O/U: Over 535 - Under 465 (Over 53.5%)

Murray St @ LA Tech (-2) 140
Average Score: Murray St 72 - LA Tech 64 (Sim line: Murray St -8, 136)
Outright wins: Murray St 724 - LA Tech 245 (Murray St 74.7%)
ATS wins: Murray St 777 - LA Tech 201 (Murray St 79.4%)
O/U: Over 361 - Under 606 (Under 62.7%)

Portland St @ St Marys (-15.5) 160
Average Score: Portland St 69 - St Marys 89 (Sim line: St Marys -20, 158)
Outright wins: Portland St 78 - St Marys 913 (St Marys 92.1%)
ATS wins: Portland St 352 - St Marys 648 (St Marys 64.8%)
O/U: Over 425 - Under 553 (Under 56.5%)


------------------

Side plays:
Georgia State (+17)
Tennesse (-22.5)
N Illinois (+25)
S Mississippi (-8.5)
Rider (+7)
Murray St (+2)
St. Marys (-15.5)

O/U plays:
Wyoming/Tennesse Under 154.5
N Illinois/Minnesota Under 135
LA Lafayette/S Mississippi Over 139
Murray St/LA Tech Under 140
Portland St/St Marys Under 160

------------------

*EDIT* added some plays, may add more throughout the day.

[zeusky]

The S.Mississippi one might be a iffy matter. Let's hope for the best.

[mlb]

not looking so hot for NCAA tonight .. back to the drawing board ... if i may ask .. what are some of the variables that you are changing from NBA to NCAA and what are you keeping the same??

[bustabook]

for the ncaa model, i use the same stats as i use in the nba model... it is almost the same exact process. like i said earlier in the thread, i had no idea what was going to happen with the ncaa plays.. hope you weren't play them mlb.

nba looks pretty good tonight.

[mlb]

no i didnt ... just very curious and was following closely ... yeah so far so good in the nba ... wish deng wouldnt have hit that 3 at the buzzer to cover for the bulls tho .. still looking real good ... .. thanks ..

still interested to see the developments of the ncaa one

[bustabook]

yeah the meaningless 3 pointer with 2 seconds left to lose by a half a point is no fun.. its ok though, i feel like we were on the wrong side of that one anyhow.

we'll see how we end up, i think you will be happy anyway.

[bustabook]

NCAAB Summary, 12/15:

Side plays:
Georgia State (+17)
Tennesse (-22.5)
N Illinois (+25)
S Mississippi (-8.5)
Rider (+7) <------ got outscored 10-0 in OT, LOL
Murray St (+2)
St. Marys (-15.5)

O/U plays:
Wyoming/Tennesse Under 154.5
N Illinois/Minnesota Under 135
LA Lafayette/S Mississippi Over 139
Murray St/LA Tech Under 140
Portland St/St Marys Under 160

--------------
5-7, -2.7 Units

Overall:
11-12, -2.2 Units
--------------

Man, i must be spoiled with the NBA results because this is ridiculous.. thats two losting nights in a row and the games i'm losing aren't even close.. to be fair, i think we should have gone 50% tonight, because rider was definately the right play for that game.

anyway, i will give this system another day or two and if it doesn't improve i will go in a different direction.. try some other things with it.

GLL