NCAA simulations beta 1.1 predictions thread

[bustabook]

Official plays, 12/16:


Clemson @ E Carolina (14) 152
Average Score: Clemson 83 - E Carolina 69 (Sim line: Clemson -14, 152)
Outright wins: Clemson 827 - E Carolina 155 (Clemson 84.2%)
ATS wins: Clemson 493 - E Carolina 471 (Clemson 51.1%)
O/U: Over 453 - Under 516 (Under 53.3%)

Presbyterian @ Ohio State (-30) 139
Average Score: Presbyterian 56 - Ohio State 91 (Sim line: Ohio State -35, 147)
Outright wins: Presbyterian 4 - Ohio State 996 (Presbyteria 0.0%)
ATS wins: Presbyterian 350 - Ohio State 624 (Ohio State 64.1%)
O/U: Over 721 - Under 261 (Over 73.4%)

Central FL @ S Florida (-8.5) 126.5
Average Score: Central FL 65 - S Florida 67 (Sim line: S Florida -2, 132)
Outright wins: Central FL 460 - S Florida 517 (S Florida 52.9%)
ATS wins: Central FL 712 - S Florida 288 (Central FL 71.2%)
O/U: Over 659 - Under 341 (Over 65.9%)

Illinois St @ Ohio (-2) 144.5
Average Score: Illinois St 64 - Ohio 75 (Sim line: Ohio -11, 139)
Outright wins: Illinois St 162 - Ohio 813 (Ohio 83.4%)
ATS wins: Illinois St 210 - Ohio 765 (Ohio 78.5%)
O/U: Over 348 - Under 652 (Under 65.2%)

Cincinnati @ UAB (1.5) 129
Average Score: Cincinnati 64 - UAB 68 (Sim line: UAB -4, 132)
Outright wins: Cincinnati 332 - UAB 638 (UAB 65.8%)
ATS wins: Cincinnati 312 - UAB 688 (UAB 68.8%)
O/U: Over 556 - Under 411 (Over 57.5%)

Santa Clara @ Rice (-5.5) 135.5
Average Score: Santa Clara 65 - Rice 78 (Sim line: Rice -13, 143)
Outright wins: Santa Clara 180 - Rice 797 (Rice 81.6%)
ATS wins: Santa Clara 301 - Rice 699 (Rice 69.9%)
O/U: Over 691 - Under 309 (Over 69.1%)

Richmond @ S Carolina (-3.5) 137
Average Score: Richmond 68 - S Carolina 70 (Sim line: S Carolina -2, 138)
Outright wins: Richmond 442 - S Carolina 524 (S Carolina 54.2%)
ATS wins: Richmond 570 - S Carolina 430 (Richmond 57.0%)
O/U: Over 509 - Under 462 (Over 52.4%)

Canisius @ Duquesne (-12) 134
Average Score: Canisius 57 - Duquesne 68 (Sim line: Duquesne -11, 125)
Outright wins: Canisius 188 - Duquesne 787 (Duquesne 80.7%)
ATS wins: Canisius 534 - Duquesne 437 (Canisius 55.0%)
O/U: Over 229 - Under 742 (Under 76.4%)

Wright State @ Miss State (-11) 135
Average Score: Wright State 59 - Miss State 78 (Sim line: Miss State -19, 137)
Outright wins: Wright State 79 - Miss State 909 (Miss State 92.0%)
ATS wins: Wright State 290 - Miss State 683 (Miss State 70.2%)
O/U: Over 561 - Under 408 (Over 57.9%)

Samford @ Alabama (-14.5) 120
Average Score: Samford 60 - Alabama 79 (Sim line: Alabama -19, 139)
Outright wins: Samford 87 - Alabama 903 (Alabama 91.2%)
ATS wins: Samford 367 - Alabama 633 (Alabama 63.3%)
O/U: Over 900 - Under 85 (Over 91.4%)

N Florida @ Northwestrn (-18) 126
Average Score: N Florida 57 - Northwestrn 81 (Sim line: Northwestrn -24, 138)
Outright wins: N Florida 27 - Northwestrn 968 (Northwestrn 97.3%)
ATS wins: N Florida 301 - Northwestrn 674 (Northwestrn 69.1%)
O/U: Over 793 - Under 188 (Over 80.8%)

N Arizona @ New Mexico (-22.5) 145.5
Average Score: N Arizona 67 - New Mexico 81 (Sim line: New Mexico -14, 148)
Outright wins: N Arizona 140 - New Mexico 839 (New Mexico 85.7%)
ATS wins: N Arizona 727 - New Mexico 273 (N Arizona 72.7%)
O/U: Over 583 - Under 417 (Over 58.3%)

AR Lit Rock @ S Alabama (-4) 136.5
Average Score: AR Lit Rock 71 - S Alabama 74 (Sim line: S Alabama -3, 145)
Outright wins: AR Lit Rock 393 - S Alabama 582 (S Alabama 59.7%)
ATS wins: AR Lit Rock 518 - S Alabama 451 (AR Lit Rock 53.5%)
O/U: Over 720 - Under 280 (Over 72.0%)

LA Monroe @ N Colorado (-11) 146.5
Average Score: LA Monroe 64 - N Colorado 77 (Sim line: N Colorado -13, 141)
Outright wins: LA Monroe 143 - N Colorado 840 (N Colorado 85.5%)
ATS wins: LA Monroe 434 - N Colorado 533 (N Colorado 55.1%)
O/U: Over 321 - Under 679 (Under 67.9%)

Oklahoma St @ Stanford (-1.5) 146
Average Score: Oklahoma St 70 - Stanford 69 (Sim line: Oklahoma St -1, 139)
Outright wins: Oklahoma St 513 - Stanford 455 (Oklahoma St 53.0%)
ATS wins: Oklahoma St 574 - Stanford 426 (Oklahoma St 57.4%)
O/U: Over 282 - Under 694 (Under 71.1%)

(15 games)
------------------

plays are highlighted.. i will post them later on in a more organized format..

GL

[Masu485]

wow, you have a ton of plays today. it sucks but my only play of the day is against you, and that worries me. i'm on South florida -7.5

[vinwon8]

Just a suggestion, I think you would be better served if you took HOME@AWAY stats instead of overall stats. I could be wrong, but I think that's why your getting BIG variance in some games. Let me know if it helps. GL

[bustabook]

vin, that is a very interesting idea that might be more applicable to college basketball than NBA.. hmmmmm.

i definately dont like having a 15-point favorite lose outright like UTEP the other night.. when that happens there is definately something amiss.

thanks.

btw masu.. i am not all that confident in the NCAA plays yet, so if you have a different play than i do.. you have a very good chance of having the right side. BOL

[bustabook]

Side plays:
Ohio State (-30)
UCF (+8.5)
Ohio (-2)
UAB (+1.5)
Rice (-5.5)
Richmond (+3.5)
Canisius (+12)
Miss State (-11)
Alabama (-14.5)
NW (-18)
N Arizona (+22.5)
N Colorado (-11)
OK State (+1.5)

O/U:
Ohio State Over 139
UCF Over 126.5
Ohio Under 144.5
UAB Over 129
Rice Over 135.5
Canisius Under 134
Miss St Over 135
Alabama Over 120
NW Over 126
N Arizona Over 145.5
S Alabama Over 136.5
N Colorado Under 146.5
Stanford Under 146

-----------------

so far tonight... 13-8 with the oklahoma state/stanford game pending..

its a good night no matter what happens with the OSU/stan game..

talk to you guys later on..

[incomeraise]

nice night here busta, but let me ask you, how do u know which team to go with or to run the simulation with? there are so many teams in college basketball, that its not like the NBA, where the simulation will seem to work way better...not bashing u at all, obviously u did good tonight, but was just wondering why you decide o chose certain teams and not others..(nba is all the game for that night)
thanks

[bustabook]

Final summary, 12/16:


Side plays:
Ohio State (-30)
UCF (+8.5)
Ohio (-2)
UAB (+1.5)
Rice (-5.5)
Richmond (+3.5)
Canisius (+12)
Miss State (-11)
Alabama (-14.5)
NW (-18)
N Arizona (+22.5)
N Colorado (-11)
OK State (+1.5)

O/U plays:
Ohio State Over 139
UCF Over 126.5
Ohio Under 144.5
UAB Over 129
Rice Over 135.5
Canisius Under 134
Miss St Over 135
Alabama Over 120
NW Over 126
N Arizona Over 145.5
S Alabama Over 136.5
N Colorado Under 146.5
Stanford Under 146

-----------------
15-8, +6.2 Units

Overall:
26-20 (57%), +4.0 Units
-----------------

Nice night tonight.. we were definately on the right sides of ALOT of games.. it gives me a little confidence in the system for the first time in its existence.

GL

[bustabook]

income... the only reason i chose these games is because these are the only games that had lines (both total and spread) when i was starting simulations.. i simply didn't get a chance to run the rest.

hope this helps.. GL

by the way, if you ever have a game you want run that i dont have up feel free to ask. i will run it for you.

[incomeraise]

ok thanks.I ll have one around 4, maybe if possible that i might ask you to run for me. I am not going to get it till around 5 thats why.
if u cant. i completely understand.
thanks again

[bustabook]

sure man, no problem.. just try to get it up ASAP because it takes 20-30 minutes to run the simulation. GL

[cappinthepigs]

Busta, could your run tonights Eastern Washington @ Nevada game... Really looking into the total of 152.. They opened @ 160, but it has plummeted.

Thanks!

[bustabook]

sure thing cappin, gimme about 30 minutes it will be up.

[incomeraise]

hey busta can u simulate, eastern washington vs nevada for me please

[bustabook]

Official plays, 12/17:

Auburn @ Florida St (-10.5) 130
Average Score: Auburn 64 - Florida St 66 (Sim line: Florida St -2, 130)
Outright wins: Auburn 416 - Florida St 556 (Florida St 57.2%)
ATS wins: Auburn 735 - Florida St 265 (Auburn 73.5%)
O/U: Over 455 - Under 513 (Under 53.0%)

Elon @ NC State (-20.5) 127
Average Score: Elon 57 - NC State 75 (Sim line: NC State -18, 132)
Outright wins: Elon 67 - NC State 923 (NC State 93.2%)
ATS wins: Elon 558 - NC State 442 (Elon 55.8%)
O/U: Over 617 - Under 357 (Over 63.3%)

New Orleans @ Troy (-13) 138
Average Score: New Orleans 75 - Troy 73 (Sim line: New Orleans -2, 148)
Outright wins: New Orleans 524 - Troy 446 (New Orleans 54.0%)
ATS wins: New Orleans 839 - Troy 150 (New Orleans 84.8%)
O/U: Over 754 - Under 224 (Over 77.1%)

GA Southern @ Evansville (-9) 140.5
Average Score: GA Southern 65 - Evansville 73 (Sim line: Evansville -8, 138)
Outright wins: GA Southern 266 - Evansville 707 (Evansville 72.7%)
ATS wins: GA Southern 511 - Evansville 464 (GA Southern 52.4%)
O/U: Over 423 - Under 577 (Under 57.7%)

Florida Intl @ Denver (-16) 140
Average Score: Florida Intl 69 - Denver 86 (Sim line: Denver -17, 155)
Outright wins: Florida Intl 97 - Denver 897 (Denver 90.2%)
ATS wins: Florida Intl 451 - Denver 514 (Denver 53.3%)
O/U: Over 856 - Under 123 (Over 87.4%)

Weber State @ UNLV (-14) 151
Average Score: Weber State 71 - UNLV 83 (Sim line: UNLV -12, 154)
Outright wins: Weber State 179 - UNLV 794 (UNLV 81.6%)
ATS wins: Weber State 548 - UNLV 429 (Weber State 56.1%)
O/U: Over 549 - Under 432 (Over 56.0%)

UC Davis @ Fresno St (-12.5) 144
Average Score: UC Davis 67 - Fresno St 80 (Sim line: Fresno St -13, 147)
Outright wins: UC Davis 142 - Fresno St 844 (Fresno St 85.6%)
ATS wins: UC Davis 473 - Fresno St 527 (Fresno St 52.7%)
O/U: Over 560 - Under 405 (Over 58.0%)

E Washingtn @ Nevada (-18) 154.5
Average Score: E Washingtn 75 - Nevada 89 (Sim line: Nevada -14, 164)
Outright wins: E Washingtn 161 - Nevada 819 (Nevada 83.6%)
ATS wins: E Washingtn 594 - Nevada 378 (E Washingtn 61.1%)
O/U: Over 743 - Under 257 (Over 74.3%)

(8 games)
-----------------

Side plays:
Auburn (+10.5)
Elon (+20.5)
New Orleans (+13)
Weber State (+14)
Eastern Washington (+18)

O/U plays:
Elon/NC State Over 127
New Orleans/Troy Over 138
Georgia Southern/Evansville Under 140.5
FIU/Denver Over 140
Weber State/UNLV Over 151
UC Davis/Fresno State Over 144
Eastern Washington/Nevada Over 154.5

-------------------

i dont like tonights plays.. i will leave them up but if you notice, it is almost all overs and it is all road underdogs. i want to tweak it a little bit after tonights games, even though the sim lines are somewhat close to actual lines.

anyway, GL

[cappinthepigs]

Thanks Much Busta. Just confirmed my thinking.

[bustabook]

GL capping.. what side did you like?

[Indecent]

sure man, no problem.. just try to get it up ASAP because it takes 20-30 minutes to run the simulation. GL

I would kill to have mine down to 20-30 minutes! Does your NBA system take about the same amount of time? That's pretty impressive regardless.

Before I optimized my system and built a seperate distributed setup to run my algorithms my NFL system was taking upwards of 4 days for all NFL games (!!!!) and my NBA system took 7 hours a game.

Nice job getting Auburn at 10.5. If anyone is going to bet on them might want to do it soon, might move to +9 yet.

[harlee71]

Official plays, 12/17:

Auburn @ Florida St (-10.5) 130
Average Score: Auburn 64 - Florida St 66 (Sim line: Florida St -2, 130)
Outright wins: Auburn 416 - Florida St 556 (Florida St 57.2%)
ATS wins: Auburn 735 - Florida St 265 (Auburn 73.5%)
O/U: Over 455 - Under 513 (Under 53.0%)

Elon @ NC State (-20.5) 127
Average Score: Elon 57 - NC State 75 (Sim line: NC State -18, 132)
Outright wins: Elon 67 - NC State 923 (NC State 93.2%)
ATS wins: Elon 558 - NC State 442 (Elon 55.8%)
O/U: Over 617 - Under 357 (Over 63.3%)


Florida Intl @ Denver (-16) 140
Average Score: Florida Intl 69 - Denver 86 (Sim line: Denver -17, 155)
Outright wins: Florida Intl 97 - Denver 897 (Denver 90.2%)
ATS wins: Florida Intl 451 - Denver 514 (Denver 53.3%)
O/U: Over 856 - Under 123 (Over 87.4%)

UC Davis @ Fresno St (-12.5) 144
Average Score: UC Davis 67 - Fresno St 80 (Sim line: Fresno St -13, 147)
Outright wins: UC Davis 142 - Fresno St 844 (Fresno St 85.6%)
ATS wins: UC Davis 473 - Fresno St 527 (Fresno St 52.7%)
O/U: Over 560 - Under 405 (Over 58.0%)

E Washingtn @ Nevada (-18) 154.5
Average Score: E Washingtn 75 - Nevada 89 (Sim line: Nevada -14, 164)
Outright wins: E Washingtn 161 - Nevada 819 (Nevada 83.6%)
ATS wins: E Washingtn 594 - Nevada 378 (E Washingtn 61.1%)
O/U: Over 743 - Under 257 (Over 74.3%)

I am right with you on these 5

[bustabook]

indecent... no, the NBA simulations take longer... around 45 minutes or so per game.

[bustabook]

your NBA sims still take 7 hours each?

[cappinthepigs]

GL capping.. what side did you like?

The Over in E. Wash & Nevada.

Was thinking that way, glad your model shows it as well.

[incomeraise]

ok thanks for the help.

[Indecent]

your NBA sims still take 7 hours each?

No, built a few computers and have them share the workload. I don't know the exact time, but it's fast enough that I don't have to worry about it. It just starts running at midnight every night and is done when I get up on most days.

[bustabook]

No, built a few computers and have them share the workload. I don't know the exact time, but it's fast enough that I don't have to worry about it. It just starts running at midnight every night and is done when I get up on most days.

in an ideal world this is what i would have. lol

[harlee71]

Auburn Check
Elon Check

[bustabook]

Elon Over, check
New Orleans, check
New Orleans Over, check
Evansville Under, check

looks like FIU/denver is staying under, so that would make us 6-1 so far.. pending the late games.. hopefully we can finish strong.

[Maddhatter]

Nice results tonite regardless of remaining games. Keep up the good work!

[bustabook]

Summary, 12/17:

Side plays:
Auburn (+10.5)
Elon (+20.5)
New Orleans (+13)
Weber State (+14)
Eastern Washington (+18)

O/U plays:
Elon/NC State Over 127
New Orleans/Troy Over 138
Georgia Southern/Evansville Under 140.5
FIU/Denver Over 140
Weber State/UNLV Over 151
UC Davis/Fresno State Over 144
Eastern Washington/Nevada Over 154.5

-----------------
8-4, +3.6 Units

Overall:
34-24 (59%), +7.6 Units
-----------------

I say that i hate my plays because i have all the underdogs... and ALL the underdogs cover, LOL.. i still want to adjust those totals but i think i'll wait to see tomorrows plays and results before doing anything.

GL

[TGoat]

Official plays, 12/17:

Auburn @ Florida St (-10.5) 130
Average Score: Auburn 64 - Florida St 66 (Sim line: Florida St -2, 130)
Outright wins: Auburn 416 - Florida St 556 (Florida St 57.2%)
ATS wins: Auburn 735 - Florida St 265 (Auburn 73.5%)
O/U: Over 455 - Under 513 (Under 53.0%)

Elon @ NC State (-20.5) 127
Average Score: Elon 57 - NC State 75 (Sim line: NC State -18, 132)
Outright wins: Elon 67 - NC State 923 (NC State 93.2%)
ATS wins: Elon 558 - NC State 442 (Elon 55.8%)
O/U: Over 617 - Under 357 (Over 63.3%)

New Orleans @ Troy (-13) 138
Average Score: New Orleans 75 - Troy 73 (Sim line: New Orleans -2, 148)
Outright wins: New Orleans 524 - Troy 446 (New Orleans 54.0%)
ATS wins: New Orleans 839 - Troy 150 (New Orleans 84.8%)
O/U: Over 754 - Under 224 (Over 77.1%)

GA Southern @ Evansville (-9) 140.5
Average Score: GA Southern 65 - Evansville 73 (Sim line: Evansville -8, 138)
Outright wins: GA Southern 266 - Evansville 707 (Evansville 72.7%)
ATS wins: GA Southern 511 - Evansville 464 (GA Southern 52.4%)
O/U: Over 423 - Under 577 (Under 57.7%)

Florida Intl @ Denver (-16) 140
Average Score: Florida Intl 69 - Denver 86 (Sim line: Denver -17, 155)
Outright wins: Florida Intl 97 - Denver 897 (Denver 90.2%)
ATS wins: Florida Intl 451 - Denver 514 (Denver 53.3%)
O/U: Over 856 - Under 123 (Over 87.4%)

Weber State @ UNLV (-14) 151
Average Score: Weber State 71 - UNLV 83 (Sim line: UNLV -12, 154)
Outright wins: Weber State 179 - UNLV 794 (UNLV 81.6%)
ATS wins: Weber State 548 - UNLV 429 (Weber State 56.1%)
O/U: Over 549 - Under 432 (Over 56.0%)

UC Davis @ Fresno St (-12.5) 144
Average Score: UC Davis 67 - Fresno St 80 (Sim line: Fresno St -13, 147)
Outright wins: UC Davis 142 - Fresno St 844 (Fresno St 85.6%)
ATS wins: UC Davis 473 - Fresno St 527 (Fresno St 52.7%)
O/U: Over 560 - Under 405 (Over 58.0%)

E Washingtn @ Nevada (-18) 154.5
Average Score: E Washingtn 75 - Nevada 89 (Sim line: Nevada -14, 164)
Outright wins: E Washingtn 161 - Nevada 819 (Nevada 83.6%)
ATS wins: E Washingtn 594 - Nevada 378 (E Washingtn 61.1%)
O/U: Over 743 - Under 257 (Over 74.3%)

(8 games)
-----------------

Side plays:
Auburn (+10.5)
Elon (+20.5)
New Orleans (+13)
Weber State (+14)
Eastern Washington (+18)

O/U plays:
Elon/NC State Over 127
New Orleans/Troy Over 138
Georgia Southern/Evansville Under 140.5
FIU/Denver Over 140
Weber State/UNLV Over 151
UC Davis/Fresno State Over 144
Eastern Washington/Nevada Over 154.5

-------------------

i dont like tonights plays.. i will leave them up but if you notice, it is almost all overs and it is all road underdogs. i want to tweak it a little bit after tonights games, even though the sim lines are somewhat close to actual lines.

anyway, GL

My thinking is just the opposite here. I love it when I have all big dogs. You have two things working for you.

1. The dog can cover
2. The dog can win outright

I wouldn't tweak anything just yet. See how things rock and roll for a while. Or, just a thought. You could always tweak and run two sets of sims.

Not sure, but I think you'll probably experience more variance in the college games. But that's just a guess.

[bustabook]

My thinking is just the opposite here. I love it when I have all big dogs...

goat.. its not that i don't like having underdogs, its just that i don't really like a "new" system picking ALL of one way or another.. usually that signifies that something needs to be changed in the formula/coding in order to correct the over/undervaluing of those same teams.

did i explain that right?

[TGoat]

goat.. its not that i don't like having underdogs, its just that i don't really like a "new" system picking ALL of one way or another.. usually that signifies that something needs to be changed in the formula/coding in order to correct the over/undervaluing of those same teams.

did i explain that right?

Yes, you explained it well. My only question would be...how do you know, I don't understand how that signifies that something needs to be changed without seeing a lot of results?

Without looking at many games how do you know that picking too many dogs or too many favorites or too many overs is an error in the model or just the normal course of events for that particular day?

[bustabook]

i thought of the same thing after i saw the results for the day.. because obviously the dogs were the right play today and that means if the system picked any favorites, it was actually wrong..

[sonnybaby]

hey busta can you have some picks up by 2 if not i understand just got to go to work

[bustabook]

sonny... i am running sims right now but they will ALL not be done by 2. however, i will post those of which i have for you before 2.

GL

[sonnybaby]

good looks i owe u points