HG's 2017-18 College Basketball Thread

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Delaware/College of Charleston o129

[doubledime]

road team: T.C.U. : current rating = 66.82, last_4_delta = - 4.60, ATS record: 6- 7, O/U: 9/ 4home team: Baylor : current rating = 65.67, last_4_delta = - 6.27, ATS record: 6- 7, O/U: 7/ 6 Baylor is favored by 1.5 over/under: 149.0 *** T.C.U. road ATS record: 0- 0 Baylor home ATS record: 4- 5 T.C.U. home sched rating: 52.39, ave MoV: 16.20 T.C.U. road sched rating: 53.48, ave MoV: -6.38 * Baylor home sched rating: 41.97, ave MoV: 23.22 Baylor road sched rating: 68.50, ave MoV: -18.50 * - last season's values T.C.U. home/road ratings: 67.02 / 0.00 T.C.U. neutral rating: 63.36 Baylor home/road ratings: 64.97 / 53.26 Baylor neutral rating: 68.90 T.C.U. ave points for/against/combined: 87.62 / 73.92 / 161.54 Baylor ave points for/against/combined: 81.08 / 67.00 / 148.08 T.C.U. home points for/against/combined: 89.70 / 73.50 / 163.20 T.C.U. road points for/against/combined: 0.00 / 0.00 / 0.00 Baylor home points for/against/combined: 89.22 / 66.00 / 155.22 Baylor road points for/against/combined: 58.00 / 76.50 / 134.50 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- head-to-head history (lined games): 2/11/2017 T.C.U. 52 + 8.5 at Baylor 70 1/21/2017 Baylor 62 - 2.5 at T.C.U. 53

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looks like just the three games for me tonight. The TCU/Baylor total is down to 140.5. Might be worth a shot for a middle for anyone interested. BOL tonight!

[teecee]

Down to 140.5? That was weird.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-1 today. Bummer about the Baylor game. It ended at 128 in regulation and then they went crazy in OT. The other two games were easy winners, thankfully.

Thread: 64-58 (+4.99u)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Not a lot for tonight:

7:30 George Mason/Massachusetts u13
I get 65 possessions here, which should be low enough to keep this under the number (though the last two unders have been tough losses).

8:00 Indiana St/Loyola o138
I came up with 70 possessions here. If we get a decent number of trips to the FT line that should be enough for this one to get into the 140s.

[sagorjanski]

7:30 George Mason/Massachusetts u13

Under 138, I presume?

[doubledime]

Under 138, I presume?

Not to speak for HG, but that is, and has been most of the day, the prevailing number.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Yeah, sorry. Damn phone. Under 138 is my play in the George Mason game. I would go to 137 as well (no idea where it is now).

[HeeluvaGuy]

I may have a side for one of the 9:00 games, but I haven't had time to dig enough yet. I'll try to post it before 8 Eastern if I play it.

Also, I'm not playing this myself because I can't back it up with numbers, but NC State getting 7 points tonight is one of those plays that looks strong based on the situation. ND is playing its first game in about 3 years without Bonzi Colson. NC State should own the boards. Would not surprise me a bit if they win SU. Just a thought.

[HeeluvaGuy]

9:00 Fresno St -1.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-3 last night. Really bad luck on the OTs and with unders in general lately. My last three unders have lost because of a 20 point final minute and two overtimes. Enough complaining, but I may take the day off. Haven't had any time to look at today's card. Will be back though.

Thread: 64-61 (+1.69u)

[teecee]

If you take a look at one total today, please make it Jax St/TennSt. Id like to know your opinion.

[GPrime19]

If you take a look at one total today, please make it Jax St/TennSt. Id like to know your opinion.

I’m also curious, I’m thinking over, but I’d like to see if HG caps that game the same.

[NostraDanUS]

Like I like my eggs, OVER EASY

[NostraDanUS]

Jacksonville State ave points for/against/combined: 76.67 / 63.67 / 140.33 Tennessee State ave points for/against/combined: 63.00 / 65.92 / 128.92 Jacksonville State home points for/against/combined: 77.67 / 60.33 / 138.00 Jacksonville State road points for/against/combined: 73.00 / 68.20 / 141.20 Tennessee State home points for/against/combined: 72.20 / 62.00 / 134.20 Tennessee State road points for/against/combined: 57.25 / 68.38 / 125.63

[teecee]

I’m also curious, I’m thinking over, but I’d like to see if HG caps that game the same.

I'm on the over for sure. I like to see his opinion.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I get right at 65 possessions, which is right in line with the last 4 meetings under these coaches (66, 62, 64, and 65). Interestingly, the scores in those games totaled 165, 120, 131, and 107, so the past results are kind of all over the place. The first game each year was the higher scoring game, but I'm not sure that's a meaningful fact.

At 65 possessions I get slightly over 126, but not by a whole lot. GL!

[teecee]

Cool. Thanks

[Spartandawg]

Very ⬛️ Play on that over. I would go under all day on a 126

[HeeluvaGuy]

Found two that work for me:

7:00 Green Bay/Cleveland St o146.5
The offenses are nothing special, but I think this one gets up to 75-76 possessions. Both teams typically fouled to the bitter end as well, so it would be nice to see a 6-8 point game around the final media timeout.

9:00 North Dakota/Montana o149.5
This is one of my favorite type of matchups. Neither team shoots a lot of threes, so the variance should be toned down a little. I get another 75+ possession game here. Hoping North Dakota can get to the line enough to do their part.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Very ⬛️ Play on that over. I would go under all day on a 126

I don't really get into the whole sharp/square thing. If a line looks weird I try to understand why. If I can't figure it out, or if it turns out there's a good reason for it, I pass. But I have never played a game just because of a sharp/square line. That's just my approach, however.

FWIW, I think the total for the Jax St game is justified. I also won't be surprised if it's off by 10+ points either way.

[Louisvillekid1]

Hey haven’t checked in lately

get ‘em!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Hey haven’t checked in lately

get ‘em!

Thanks kid. I'm muddling through a little rough patch. Hoping to get some of these back very soon. BOL tonight!

[Spartandawg]

I don't really get into the whole sharp/square thing. If a line looks weird I try to understand why. If I can't figure it out, or if it turns out there's a good reason for it, I pass. But I have never played a game just because of a sharp/square line. That's just my approach, however.

FWIW, I think the total for the Jax St game is justified. I also won't be surprised if it's off by 10+ points either way.

Real talk - if a line looks too good to be true, it probably is. If basic logic, like what he thought or justified with statistics the potential total, easily leads you to a decision that doesn’t explain the book, it’s best to lay off or fade yourself.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-0 tonight with an assist on that Jax St over . Glad to see things go our way tonight.

Thread: 66-61 (+3.69u)

[teecee]

Very ⬛️ Play on that over. I would go under all day on a 126

You lose

[Spartandawg]

You lose

You should rehydrate. I’m sure you lost a lot of sweat on that one

[teecee]

You should rehydrate. I’m sure you lost a lot of sweat on that one

I don't watch the games I wager, in general, or bet enough to lose my mind WHEN I go on a bad run.

[doubledime]

2-0 tonight with an assist on that Jax St over . Glad to see things go our way tonight.

Thread: 66-61 (+3.69u)

[Spartandawg]

I don't watch the games I wager, in general, or bet enough to lose my mind WHEN I go on a bad run.

Wouldn’t possibly be able to watch this dumpster fire. But I hear ya. I laid off this one because, well, my gut was telling me to

[HeeluvaGuy]

This might be it for today:

7:00 Manhattan/Monmouth o139
I get 70+ possessions, which is in line (and on the low end) of recent meetings. We should see a lot of free throws in this one. NOTE: Micah Seaborn is questionable for Monmouth. I'm playing it here anyway, but that might be a reason for others to stay away.

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-0 tonight in a game that looks like it had exactly 70 possessions. I know there have been some losses this week, but several of those were just plain bad luck. Lots of work to do for tomorrow.

Thread: 67-61 (+4.69u)

[Minhng87]

Any thought on Oregon game?? Oregon give 2.5 seem kinda low

[sagorjanski]

Well played!