HG's 2017-18 College Basketball Thread
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#421Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#422First one for Saturday:
12:00 East Carolina/Connecticut o133
I get 70 possessions for this one, which should be enough even with ECU's offensive woes. UConn should have no problem doing its part, and I think they'll enjoy the step down in competition after a very tough stretch of games.
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#4233:30 W Michigan/Miami (OH) u142
If you look just at season scoring averages this number looks like an over play. However, I get a game played around 66 possessions, which would require these two to average 1.076 points per minute for this to go over. That number is well above each team's offensive efficiency.
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#424Running low on time this morning. Gonna spit out what I can. I'm mostly going chronologically, if that helps.
2:00 VCU/La Salle u148
2:15 Nebraska/Purdue o146
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#4254:00 Washington St +140
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#426Last one up until the 5:00 games. Probably gonna be a while before I can get to those:
4:30 Mississippi St/Ole Miss o147.5
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#4285:30 Fresno St/Colorado St o140
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#429This may be it for the day:
8:00 Western Illinois/Oral Roberts u140
8:00 St Bonaventure/St Joseph's o147
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#4304-5 today. Had a few losers that looked good at the half but fell apart in the second half. Try to do better on Sunday.
Thread: 71-66 (+3.29u)
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#431First one for Sunday:
2:00 College of Charleston/Towson o136
This one may come down a little closer to kenpom's 132, but I'm OK playing it here. I get around 69 possessions. With CofC's ability to get to the FT line that should be enough. If this drops down I may add another unit.
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#433First one for Sunday:
2:00 College of Charleston/Towson o136
This one may come down a little closer to kenpom's 132, but I'm OK playing it here. I get around 69 possessions. With CofC's ability to get to the FT line that should be enough. If this drops down I may add another unit.
CofC/Towson o134
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Louisvillekid1SBR Aristocracy
- 10-17-07
- 52143
#434Get em hellaComment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#435This is it for me today:
2:00 Quinnipiac/St Peter's u134.5
I get a low possession game in the 62-3 range. Free throws could be a problem, but I think there's enough cushion for it to stay under.
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Louisvillekid1SBR Aristocracy
- 10-17-07
- 52143
#436Can’t believe you not on Drexel over
fukkin love itComment -
DOM_TorettoRestricted User
- 01-28-13
- 9035
#438HG what do you get for the Syracuse @ UVA total?
Tempting to blindly take under. I see 113.5 right now. Can cuse score 45 here?Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#439Sorry man. I took yesterday off and just watched the football game last night. Haven’t had any time to look at today other than to notice that I’m not crazy about any of the matchups. That game looks so miserable I’m not sure I would have spent any time on it anyway. The sooner Tony Bennett is out of coaching the better as far as I’m concerned.Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#4401-2 Sunday. I took the last few days off. Back at it today.
Thread: 72-68 (+2.09u)
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#4418:00 Illinois St -1
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#4420-1 last night. It’s no secret that I’m struggling right now. I’m going to keep posting, but plays will be reduced aquite a bit until I can get turned around. I also expect to focus primarily on overs for a bit during this time.
Thread: 72-69 (+.99u)
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#443My plays for tonight:
7:00 Manhattan/Fairfield o141
8:00 Idaho St/North Dakota o148
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doubledimeSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-22-09
- 9751
#444Good luck today HGComment -
sagorjanskiSBR Rookie
- 11-04-17
- 34
#445Best of luck, HG!Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#446Thanks guys. It’s a long season full of ebbs and flows. I haven’t adjusted well to conference play at all. It seems like every game I’ve played for the past week or two has had a higher scoring first half than second half. That’s not how it’s supposed to work. Just going by what I’ve watched, officiating seems more erratic than in past years. I’m not sure if there is a source to find this out, but it sure seems like a lot more offensive fouls are being called than ever, and it really seems to affect the flow of the game.
For the time time being I would recommend using caution with my picks until I get things back on track.
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#447Quick record update and a few plays tonight:
Thread: 72-71 (-1.21u)
Last edited by HeeluvaGuy; 01-15-18, 10:35 PM.Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#448I'm back with some picks. Spent a lot of time on today's card. Hope it pays off. Sorry for the late post:
7:00 VMI/Western Carolina u140
These are two very bad offensive teams. I get a max of 70 possessions, but it should be lower than that. Even at 70 possessions I get 137 for a total and have run this several times with different models getting 135-138.
7:00 Chattanooga/Mercer u135.5
This is a pair of slow teams. I think we could see just 63 possessions here. Using a couple of models I get a game in the low 130s.
8:00 Milwaukee/Green Bay o141.5
I get 72/73 possessions, which should get us over this number. Using a couple of models I get 145+ points for this one.
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#4492-1 tonight. Lost the Mercer under in OT. Feel like I've heard that one before.
Thread: 74-72 (-.31u)
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#450I have a healthy dislike for unders, but this may be my only play today:
7:00 Cincinnati/UCF u121
A ridiculously low number, for sure. I get a high of 116 on 62 possessions. Last year they played to 110 and 102 on 61 and 60 possessions. 6 of their 8 meetings have been below 121, and I have 114 on another model I use. Kenpom and Massey also have this below 120.
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#4511-0 tonight. Didn’t think it would be possible to have an easy under at 121, but the final only got to 87. I added an extra layer of analysis when I took a few days off and so far it’s showing promise. Time consuming though.
Thread: 75-72 (+.69u)
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sagorjanskiSBR Rookie
- 11-04-17
- 34
#452Happy to see you back at it, HG. Keep it up!Comment -
HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#454Wednesday:
7:00 SMU/Wichita St u143
I actually get a slightly higher possession game than kenpom (67 vs 65), but when I look at efficiencies I get a total in the mid 130s.
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HeeluvaGuySBR MVP
- 02-15-14
- 3449
#4557:00 George Mason/George Washington o135
To be perfectly honest, I don’t think this would have made the cut for me a week ago. I get a 67 possession game with a total at 140. At that efficiency, we could survive with a slightly slower game.
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