HG's 2017-18 College Basketball Thread

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  • HeeluvaGuy
    SBR MVP
    • 02-15-14
    • 3449

    #421
    Originally posted by Minhng87
    Any thought on Oregon game?? Oregon give 2.5 seem kinda low
    Honestly didn't even look at it. Tough road rivalry game. BOL!
    Comment
    • HeeluvaGuy
      SBR MVP
      • 02-15-14
      • 3449

      #422
      First one for Saturday:

      12:00 East Carolina/Connecticut o133
      I get 70 possessions for this one, which should be enough even with ECU's offensive woes. UConn should have no problem doing its part, and I think they'll enjoy the step down in competition after a very tough stretch of games.
      Comment
      • HeeluvaGuy
        SBR MVP
        • 02-15-14
        • 3449

        #423
        3:30 W Michigan/Miami (OH) u142
        If you look just at season scoring averages this number looks like an over play. However, I get a game played around 66 possessions, which would require these two to average 1.076 points per minute for this to go over. That number is well above each team's offensive efficiency.
        Comment
        • HeeluvaGuy
          SBR MVP
          • 02-15-14
          • 3449

          #424
          Running low on time this morning. Gonna spit out what I can. I'm mostly going chronologically, if that helps.

          2:00 VCU/La Salle u148

          2:15 Nebraska/Purdue o146

          Comment
          • HeeluvaGuy
            SBR MVP
            • 02-15-14
            • 3449

            #425
            4:00 Washington St +140
            Comment
            • HeeluvaGuy
              SBR MVP
              • 02-15-14
              • 3449

              #426
              Last one up until the 5:00 games. Probably gonna be a while before I can get to those:

              4:30 Mississippi St/Ole Miss o147.5

              Comment
              • doubledime
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 04-22-09
                • 9751

                #427
                Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                Last one up until the 5:00 games. Probably gonna be a while before I can get to those:

                4:30 Mississippi St/Ole Miss o147.5

                So many games...... so little time Good luck today HG
                Comment
                • HeeluvaGuy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-15-14
                  • 3449

                  #428
                  5:30 Fresno St/Colorado St o140
                  Comment
                  • HeeluvaGuy
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-15-14
                    • 3449

                    #429
                    This may be it for the day:

                    8:00 Western Illinois/Oral Roberts u140

                    8:00 St Bonaventure/St Joseph's o147

                    Comment
                    • HeeluvaGuy
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-15-14
                      • 3449

                      #430
                      4-5 today. Had a few losers that looked good at the half but fell apart in the second half. Try to do better on Sunday.

                      Thread: 71-66 (+3.29u)

                      Comment
                      • HeeluvaGuy
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-15-14
                        • 3449

                        #431
                        First one for Sunday:

                        2:00 College of Charleston/Towson o136
                        This one may come down a little closer to kenpom's 132, but I'm OK playing it here. I get around 69 possessions. With CofC's ability to get to the FT line that should be enough. If this drops down I may add another unit.
                        Comment
                        • doubledime
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 04-22-09
                          • 9751

                          #432
                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                          4-5 today. Had a few losers that looked good at the half but fell apart in the second half. Try to do better on Sunday.

                          Thread: 71-66 (+3.29u)

                          I noticed that with a number of games yesterday. Good luck today!
                          Comment
                          • HeeluvaGuy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-15-14
                            • 3449

                            #433
                            Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                            First one for Sunday:

                            2:00 College of Charleston/Towson o136
                            This one may come down a little closer to kenpom's 132, but I'm OK playing it here. I get around 69 possessions. With CofC's ability to get to the FT line that should be enough. If this drops down I may add another unit.
                            Making this a 2u play with one more at:

                            CofC/Towson o134

                            Comment
                            • Louisvillekid1
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-17-07
                              • 52143

                              #434
                              Get em hella
                              Comment
                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-15-14
                                • 3449

                                #435
                                This is it for me today:

                                2:00 Quinnipiac/St Peter's u134.5
                                I get a low possession game in the 62-3 range. Free throws could be a problem, but I think there's enough cushion for it to stay under.
                                Comment
                                • Louisvillekid1
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-17-07
                                  • 52143

                                  #436
                                  Can’t believe you not on Drexel over

                                  fukkin love it
                                  Comment
                                  • HeeluvaGuy
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-15-14
                                    • 3449

                                    #437
                                    Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                    Can’t believe you not on Drexel over

                                    fukkin love it
                                    I totally get it. It's just not my kind of game. Think you're on the right side though. BOL!
                                    Comment
                                    • DOM_Toretto
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-28-13
                                      • 9035

                                      #438
                                      HG what do you get for the Syracuse @ UVA total?

                                      Tempting to blindly take under. I see 113.5 right now. Can cuse score 45 here?
                                      Comment
                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-15-14
                                        • 3449

                                        #439
                                        Originally posted by DOM_Toretto
                                        HG what do you get for the Syracuse @ UVA total?

                                        Tempting to blindly take under. I see 113.5 right now. Can cuse score 45 here?
                                        Sorry man. I took yesterday off and just watched the football game last night. Haven’t had any time to look at today other than to notice that I’m not crazy about any of the matchups. That game looks so miserable I’m not sure I would have spent any time on it anyway. The sooner Tony Bennett is out of coaching the better as far as I’m concerned.
                                        Comment
                                        • HeeluvaGuy
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-15-14
                                          • 3449

                                          #440
                                          1-2 Sunday. I took the last few days off. Back at it today.

                                          Thread: 72-68 (+2.09u)

                                          Comment
                                          • HeeluvaGuy
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-15-14
                                            • 3449

                                            #441
                                            8:00 Illinois St -1
                                            Comment
                                            • HeeluvaGuy
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-15-14
                                              • 3449

                                              #442
                                              0-1 last night. It’s no secret that I’m struggling right now. I’m going to keep posting, but plays will be reduced aquite a bit until I can get turned around. I also expect to focus primarily on overs for a bit during this time.

                                              Thread: 72-69 (+.99u)

                                              Comment
                                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-15-14
                                                • 3449

                                                #443
                                                My plays for tonight:

                                                7:00 Manhattan/Fairfield o141

                                                8:00 Idaho St/North Dakota o148


                                                Comment
                                                • doubledime
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 04-22-09
                                                  • 9751

                                                  #444
                                                  Good luck today HG
                                                  Comment
                                                  • sagorjanski
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 11-04-17
                                                    • 34

                                                    #445
                                                    Best of luck, HG!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • HeeluvaGuy
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-15-14
                                                      • 3449

                                                      #446
                                                      Thanks guys. It’s a long season full of ebbs and flows. I haven’t adjusted well to conference play at all. It seems like every game I’ve played for the past week or two has had a higher scoring first half than second half. That’s not how it’s supposed to work. Just going by what I’ve watched, officiating seems more erratic than in past years. I’m not sure if there is a source to find this out, but it sure seems like a lot more offensive fouls are being called than ever, and it really seems to affect the flow of the game.

                                                      For the time time being I would recommend using caution with my picks until I get things back on track.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-15-14
                                                        • 3449

                                                        #447
                                                        Quick record update and a few plays tonight:

                                                        Thread: 72-71 (-1.21u)

                                                        Last edited by HeeluvaGuy; 01-15-18, 10:35 PM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • HeeluvaGuy
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-15-14
                                                          • 3449

                                                          #448
                                                          I'm back with some picks. Spent a lot of time on today's card. Hope it pays off. Sorry for the late post:

                                                          7:00 VMI/Western Carolina u140
                                                          These are two very bad offensive teams. I get a max of 70 possessions, but it should be lower than that. Even at 70 possessions I get 137 for a total and have run this several times with different models getting 135-138.

                                                          7:00 Chattanooga/Mercer u135.5
                                                          This is a pair of slow teams. I think we could see just 63 possessions here. Using a couple of models I get a game in the low 130s.

                                                          8:00 Milwaukee/Green Bay o141.5
                                                          I get 72/73 possessions, which should get us over this number. Using a couple of models I get 145+ points for this one.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • HeeluvaGuy
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-15-14
                                                            • 3449

                                                            #449
                                                            2-1 tonight. Lost the Mercer under in OT. Feel like I've heard that one before.

                                                            Thread: 74-72 (-.31u)

                                                            Comment
                                                            • HeeluvaGuy
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-15-14
                                                              • 3449

                                                              #450
                                                              I have a healthy dislike for unders, but this may be my only play today:

                                                              7:00 Cincinnati/UCF u121
                                                              A ridiculously low number, for sure. I get a high of 116 on 62 possessions. Last year they played to 110 and 102 on 61 and 60 possessions. 6 of their 8 meetings have been below 121, and I have 114 on another model I use. Kenpom and Massey also have this below 120.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-15-14
                                                                • 3449

                                                                #451
                                                                1-0 tonight. Didn’t think it would be possible to have an easy under at 121, but the final only got to 87. I added an extra layer of analysis when I took a few days off and so far it’s showing promise. Time consuming though.

                                                                Thread: 75-72 (+.69u)

                                                                Comment
                                                                • sagorjanski
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 11-04-17
                                                                  • 34

                                                                  #452
                                                                  Happy to see you back at it, HG. Keep it up!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-15-14
                                                                    • 3449

                                                                    #453
                                                                    Originally posted by sagorjanski
                                                                    Happy to see you back at it, HG. Keep it up!
                                                                    Glad to be back. Such a long season with so many games. But I have fresher eyes now. Hope that helps us!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-15-14
                                                                      • 3449

                                                                      #454
                                                                      Wednesday:

                                                                      7:00 SMU/Wichita St u143

                                                                      I actually get a slightly higher possession game than kenpom (67 vs 65), but when I look at efficiencies I get a total in the mid 130s.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 02-15-14
                                                                        • 3449

                                                                        #455
                                                                        7:00 George Mason/George Washington o135
                                                                        To be perfectly honest, I don’t think this would have made the cut for me a week ago. I get a 67 possession game with a total at 140. At that efficiency, we could survive with a slightly slower game.
                                                                        Comment
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