HG's 2017-18 College Basketball Thread

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-05-18, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by Minhng87

Any thought on Oregon game?? Oregon give 2.5 seem kinda low

Honestly didn't even look at it. Tough road rivalry game. BOL!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-05-18, 11:47 PM

First one for Saturday:

12:00 East Carolina/Connecticut o133
I get 70 possessions for this one, which should be enough even with ECU's offensive woes. UConn should have no problem doing its part, and I think they'll enjoy the step down in competition after a very tough stretch of games.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-06-18, 08:54 AM

3:30 W Michigan/Miami (OH) u142
If you look just at season scoring averages this number looks like an over play. However, I get a game played around 66 possessions, which would require these two to average 1.076 points per minute for this to go over. That number is well above each team's offensive efficiency.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-06-18, 09:18 AM

Running low on time this morning. Gonna spit out what I can. I'm mostly going chronologically, if that helps.

2:00 VCU/La Salle u148

2:15 Nebraska/Purdue o146

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-06-18, 09:47 AM

4:00 Washington St +140

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-06-18, 10:09 AM

Last one up until the 5:00 games. Probably gonna be a while before I can get to those:

4:30 Mississippi St/Ole Miss o147.5

**doubledime** · 01-06-18, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Last one up until the 5:00 games. Probably gonna be a while before I can get to those:

4:30 Mississippi St/Ole Miss o147.5

So many games...... so little time

Good luck today HG

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-06-18, 02:47 PM

5:30 Fresno St/Colorado St o140

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-06-18, 06:23 PM

This may be it for the day:

8:00 Western Illinois/Oral Roberts u140

8:00 St Bonaventure/St Joseph's o147

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-06-18, 10:24 PM

4-5 today. Had a few losers that looked good at the half but fell apart in the second half. Try to do better on Sunday.

Thread: 71-66 (+3.29u)

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-06-18, 10:26 PM

First one for Sunday:

2:00 College of Charleston/Towson o136
This one may come down a little closer to kenpom's 132, but I'm OK playing it here. I get around 69 possessions. With CofC's ability to get to the FT line that should be enough. If this drops down I may add another unit.

**doubledime** · 01-07-18, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

4-5 today. Had a few losers that looked good at the half but fell apart in the second half. Try to do better on Sunday.

Thread: 71-66 (+3.29u)

I noticed that with a number of games yesterday. Good luck today!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-07-18, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

First one for Sunday:

2:00 College of Charleston/Towson o136
This one may come down a little closer to kenpom's 132, but I'm OK playing it here. I get around 69 possessions. With CofC's ability to get to the FT line that should be enough. If this drops down I may add another unit.

Making this a 2u play with one more at:

CofC/Towson o134

**Louisvillekid1** · 01-07-18, 11:52 AM

Get em hella

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-07-18, 11:52 AM

This is it for me today:

2:00 Quinnipiac/St Peter's u134.5
I get a low possession game in the 62-3 range. Free throws could be a problem, but I think there's enough cushion for it to stay under.

**Louisvillekid1** · 01-07-18, 11:53 AM

Can’t believe you not on Drexel over

fukkin love it

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-07-18, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

Can’t believe you not on Drexel over

fukkin love it

I totally get it. It's just not my kind of game. Think you're on the right side though. BOL!

**DOM_Toretto** · 01-09-18, 11:07 AM

HG what do you get for the Syracuse @ UVA total?

Tempting to blindly take under. I see 113.5 right now. Can cuse score 45 here?

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-09-18, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by DOM_Toretto

HG what do you get for the Syracuse @ UVA total?

Tempting to blindly take under. I see 113.5 right now. Can cuse score 45 here?

Sorry man. I took yesterday off and just watched the football game last night. Haven’t had any time to look at today other than to notice that I’m not crazy about any of the matchups. That game looks so miserable I’m not sure I would have spent any time on it anyway. The sooner Tony Bennett is out of coaching the better as far as I’m concerned.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-10-18, 01:18 PM

1-2 Sunday. I took the last few days off. Back at it today.

Thread: 72-68 (+2.09u)

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-10-18, 01:19 PM

8:00 Illinois St -1

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-11-18, 03:46 PM

0-1 last night. It’s no secret that I’m struggling right now. I’m going to keep posting, but plays will be reduced aquite a bit until I can get turned around. I also expect to focus primarily on overs for a bit during this time.

Thread: 72-69 (+.99u)

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-11-18, 03:47 PM

My plays for tonight:

7:00 Manhattan/Fairfield o141

8:00 Idaho St/North Dakota o148

**doubledime** · 01-11-18, 03:49 PM

Good luck today HG

**sagorjanski** · 01-11-18, 04:23 PM

Best of luck, HG!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-11-18, 05:01 PM

Thanks guys. It’s a long season full of ebbs and flows. I haven’t adjusted well to conference play at all. It seems like every game I’ve played for the past week or two has had a higher scoring first half than second half. That’s not how it’s supposed to work. Just going by what I’ve watched, officiating seems more erratic than in past years. I’m not sure if there is a source to find this out, but it sure seems like a lot more offensive fouls are being called than ever, and it really seems to affect the flow of the game.

For the time time being I would recommend using caution with my picks until I get things back on track.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-15-18, 06:36 PM

Quick record update and a few plays tonight:

Thread: 72-71 (-1.21u)

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-15-18, 06:43 PM

I'm back with some picks. Spent a lot of time on today's card. Hope it pays off. Sorry for the late post:

7:00 VMI/Western Carolina u140
These are two very bad offensive teams. I get a max of 70 possessions, but it should be lower than that. Even at 70 possessions I get 137 for a total and have run this several times with different models getting 135-138.

7:00 Chattanooga/Mercer u135.5
This is a pair of slow teams. I think we could see just 63 possessions here. Using a couple of models I get a game in the low 130s.

8:00 Milwaukee/Green Bay o141.5
I get 72/73 possessions, which should get us over this number. Using a couple of models I get 145+ points for this one.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-15-18, 10:36 PM

2-1 tonight. Lost the Mercer under in OT. Feel like I've heard that one before.

Thread: 74-72 (-.31u)

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-16-18, 12:58 PM

I have a healthy dislike for unders, but this may be my only play today:

7:00 Cincinnati/UCF u121
A ridiculously low number, for sure. I get a high of 116 on 62 possessions. Last year they played to 110 and 102 on 61 and 60 possessions. 6 of their 8 meetings have been below 121, and I have 114 on another model I use. Kenpom and Massey also have this below 120.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-16-18, 09:28 PM

1-0 tonight. Didn’t think it would be possible to have an easy under at 121, but the final only got to 87. I added an extra layer of analysis when I took a few days off and so far it’s showing promise. Time consuming though.

Thread: 75-72 (+.69u)

**sagorjanski** · 01-16-18, 09:33 PM

Happy to see you back at it, HG. Keep it up!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-17-18, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by sagorjanski

Happy to see you back at it, HG. Keep it up!

Glad to be back. Such a long season with so many games. But I have fresher eyes now. Hope that helps us!

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-17-18, 12:55 PM

Wednesday:

7:00 SMU/Wichita St u143
I actually get a slightly higher possession game than kenpom (67 vs 65), but when I look at efficiencies I get a total in the mid 130s.

**HeeluvaGuy** · 01-17-18, 03:07 PM

7:00 George Mason/George Washington o135
To be perfectly honest, I don’t think this would have made the cut for me a week ago. I get a 67 possession game with a total at 140. At that efficiency, we could survive with a slightly slower game.