NCAAB Totals using KENPOM 2014-2015

spankmythighs · 12-07-14, 04:09 PM

The 149.5 total on the Charlotte gm was a pregame line, not live. Check the time

spankmythighs · 12-08-14, 11:28 AM

CHARLOTTE UNDER 149.5 - WIN

Record for pregame TOTALS 16-1

HeeluvaGuy · 12-08-14, 11:56 AM

Savannah/Miami O121 looks like a play that fits and might be available.

spankmythighs · 12-08-14, 01:09 PM

Good eye Heel. Hope u jumped on it as it is 123.5 now on 5Dimes. No line for that game on Bet365. I will make sure I check both in the morning.

theLegend9101 · 12-08-14, 05:54 PM

127.5 now. What the hell is going on?

spankmythighs · 12-08-14, 11:22 PM

No official plays today.

spankmythighs · 12-09-14, 05:03 PM

Just a heads up there are 3 games that will be available for live betting on Bet365 that dont currently have TOTALS posted.

Bowling Grn vs. Dayton - Kenpom suggested = 122
Evansville vs Belmont - Kenpom suggested = 143
South Dakota St vs Saint Louis - Kenpom suggested = 130

They will have TOTALS posted about 2-5 mins before game in the in-play section.

spankmythighs · 12-09-14, 05:10 PM

Louisville line was released @ 140 and is currently 141. Kenpom suggested was 147. Put 2.5 units on the OVER 140.

spankmythighs · 12-09-14, 07:17 PM

Hmmm no show on the Dayton gm in the live inplay on Bet365

spankmythighs · 12-10-14, 09:27 AM

Hit the OVER in Louisville game with ease. Record now 17-1

jeffjam_ · 12-10-14, 09:37 AM

I don't see anything on the early releases, biggest difference is about 2,5 points.

spankmythighs · 12-11-14, 05:43 PM

No plays as of yet.

spankmythighs · 12-13-14, 01:41 PM

UMKC OVER 145 FOR 5 UNITS
Kenpom=156

spankmythighs · 12-13-14, 01:45 PM

Keep an eye on Port St. gm and Utah St. gm aswell. Both about 8 pts off

terrortwylight · 12-13-14, 02:23 PM

I just bought KenPom the other day, still getting the hang of it.

What kind of indicators do you look for when making plays?

spankmythighs · 12-13-14, 02:50 PM

Dbl digit point discrepancy between kenpom and bet365 totals line.

terrortwylight · 12-13-14, 02:53 PM

Interesting. Thank you for the insight.

incomeraise · 12-13-14, 03:54 PM

I tried to find the UMKC game on 5dimes but I couldn't get it.. Are these games only available on bet365?

spankmythighs · 12-13-14, 04:34 PM

Took Port St. UNDER 141.5 FOR 4UNITS
Kenpom =134

spankmythighs · 12-13-14, 04:34 PM

Ya I only use Bet365

alamo · 12-13-14, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

Took Port St. UNDER 141.5 FOR 4UNITS
Kenpom =134

Dude why do you keep telling us what you took when its almost HT and the total in running is at 116.5 ?

No wonder you are 18-1

spankmythighs · 12-13-14, 06:05 PM

Lol I can send u my settled bet list and show u.

spankmythighs · 12-13-14, 06:08 PM

UMKC gm was well before tip off.

UTAH ST. UNDER 137.5 FOR 5 UNITS
Kenpom=126

spankmythighs · 12-13-14, 06:20 PM

If I dont post on time, Im pretty sure you can figure out what to bet on.

alamo · 12-13-14, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by spankmythighs

UMKC gm was well before tip off.

UTAH ST. UNDER 137.5 FOR 5 UNITS
Kenpom=126

Whilst I criticised you for posting a tip when the game was already nearly at half time I will compliment you on this play. As was always the request from the start of your thread to give people at least a 30 minute window before you post a play. You did this here so well done.

spankmythighs · 12-14-14, 01:42 AM

3-0 today. I would say that is a good day. 21-1 all time now. Hope we get some tomorrow too.

spankmythighs · 12-14-14, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by alamo

Whilst I criticised you for posting a tip when the game was already nearly at half time I will compliment you on this play. As was always the request from the start of your thread to give people at least a 30 minute window before you post a play. You did this here so well done.

Thanks little buddy.

Cowboy101 · 12-14-14, 12:18 PM

Sorry guys for coming in late:

But will there be any plays today that fits this formula. I'm currently trying find link to understand the projected value plays.

Thanks in advance...

jeffjam_ · 12-14-14, 12:36 PM

Only College of Charleston total is close but should not qualify, KP suggests 115, 365 has it at 122.5, so 7.5 pts difference.

Cowboy101 · 12-14-14, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by jeffjam_

Only College of Charleston total is close but should not qualify, KP suggests 115, 365 has it at 122.5, so 7.5 pts difference.

Thanks so much JJ,

I'm currently trying to figure out the process and or KP strategy on figuring out the projected teams

Again, thanks for the reply.

spankmythighs · 12-14-14, 08:55 PM

Charleston game and Seton Hall game had the largest discrepancies compared to Kenpom today. Not official plays but I did throw 2 units on both games and the UNDERS on
both. I usually do a 2 unit bet on anything 6-10 points off and 5 units on anything >10

spankmythighs · 12-14-14, 08:56 PM

Currently trying to find something similar for WNCAAB. If anyone knows of anything let me know.

IWANTMONEY · 12-14-14, 09:03 PM

If anyone knew they had an edge with a simple system, they would be mad to advertise it on an open forum as that would be a sure fire way of killing the golden goose. If your system continues to work with bet365 they will either ban you or with the increased weight of money they will adjust their offers on those type of games. I don't imagine it will take much money on these lightly bet games for them to start flagging them up and adjusting their offers.

spankmythighs · 12-14-14, 09:50 PM

There is a max bet on these games which is quite low so I dont think they will flag it as Im a small fish in a large ocean of bettors on Bet365. Lucky for us smart bettors there are way more stupid bettors.

IWANTMONEY · 12-14-14, 10:18 PM

I don't think it works that way. In fact I'm sure it doesn't. Why do you think there is a low max bet? They don't want to be exposed on such light markets. If you have a group of bettors betting the same way to max stakes and winning, it will get flagged. Why wouldnt it?
But, of course, I hope you can stay under the radar.