Hoops 2014

[BiffTFinancial]

Saturday 1.11.2014 final card
1* Dayton -2 - LOSER
1* UNC TT under 64' - WINNER
1* ML Parlay: Syracuse + Arkansas (+116) - LOSER
1* Virginia -2 - WINNER
1* UCF +11 - LOSER

2-3 -1.2u

Hoops YTD: 6-6-1 -0.5u

[BiffTFinancial]

Wtf UCF. I had Rutgers too. Watched both fall apart down the stretch. Ugh!

Yeah, was way off on both Dayton and UCF. Fortunately, i had a rare good NFL day.

[BiffTFinancial]

Sunday leans
Nebraska +6'
Xavier +8
Washington +3
Akron +4'
Illinois -5' (only 15 more chances after today to fade the Mildcats including B1G tourney!)
Wazzu +2'
Maryland +6'

[BiffTFinancial]

Sunday NFL leans
Panthers pk
Niners/Panthers under 41
Niners TT under 20' -105
Chargers/Broncos over 54'

[BiffTFinancial]

Sunday 1.12.2014
1* Illinois -5

Fade Mildcats

[BiffTFinancial]

Fading the Mildcats is nearly an auto-play right now. Yes, it's tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, and Illinois hasn't fared that well on the road this season (0-2-1 ATS; got waxed as 10-point dog in Madison this week, lost by 3 as +2 dog at Georgia Tech, pushed as -2 fave at UNLV), but this is the Welsh-Ryan Snakepit that we're talking about here. What with classes tomorrow, there should be as many Illini fans as NU fans for the 6:30 pm local tip. And so far as talent goes, yeah, Illinois got trucked in Madison just this week, but Wisky's managers could probably play for NU. Illinois will be motivated to get back on the court after being dismantled by the Badgers, and this is just the spot and opponent for them. Illini will take what they want and Mildcats won't be able to stop them.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Akron +4'

Sunday 1.12.2014 updated card
1* Akron +4'
1* Illinois -5

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Xavier +8 (-105)

Sunday 1.12.2014 updated card
1* Xavier +8 (-105)
1* Akron +4'
1* Illinois -5

That's probably it for hoops sides today. May add total or two later.

[pacocn]

Good luck today biff we're in agreement with panthers pk, however I'm playing over in that game also looking at yulsa for college hoops lets get em!

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Panthers ML (-108)

NFL Divisional Playoffs updated card
2* Saints TT under 17' - WINNER
1* Saints/Seahawks under 44 - WINNER
1* Patriots 1Q -1/2 - WINNER
1* Patriots 1H -4 - WINNER
1* Panthers ML (-108)

[BiffTFinancial]

Good luck today biff we're in agreement with panthers pk, however I'm playing over in that game also looking at yulsa for college hoops lets get em!

BOL, brotha!

[pacocn]

Biff, great day in nfl yesterday! Woot!

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Chargers +8 (-106)

NFL Divisional Playoffs updated card
2* Saints TT under 17' - WINNER
1* Saints/Seahawks under 44 - WINNER
1* Patriots 1Q -1/2 - WINNER
1* Patriots 1H -4 - WINNER
1* Panthers ML (-108)
1* Chargers +8 (-106)

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, great day in nfl yesterday! Woot!

Thanks!

[Tommy Karate]

Sunday 1.12.2014
1* Illinois -5

Fade Mildcats

illinois is a disgusting road team...always have been.

15 friggin points at the half...

[BiffTFinancial]

illinois is a disgusting road team...always have been.

15 friggin points at the half...

Illinois 6-32 from the field, 0-10 from three and got outrebounded 1H by feckless Mildcats. That's some shameful shit right there.

[Tommy Karate]

here they come

[BiffTFinancial]

here they come

Kept stealing the ball and then missing layups. I'd hate to be a player at Illini practice today. Oh well - they earned their punishment.

[BiffTFinancial]

Sunday 1.12.2014 final card
1* Xavier +8 (-105) - WINNER
1* Akron +4' - WINNER
1* Illinois -5 - LOSER

2-1 +0.9u

Hoops Season to Date: 8-7-1 +0.4u

[BiffTFinancial]

Had some time this weekend while watching games and decided to work on revisions to my hoops model. Was so motivated that I created a smaller model just for totals (very simple; attempts to use Ken Pom's projection methodology with a few tweaks). It's similar to my baseball model without the overlays (e.g., stadium, ump, weather, adjustments based upon LHP/RHP SP, etc.). Will need to consider overlays later, though they are not as easy as baseball (have to find a way to overlay impact of zone defense for sure, though, as well as potential for minimal/excessive FTs).

Here are the projected totals from the new mini-model (total points to be scored; not what the posted total will be at books) for the five games tonight that interest me. I'm somewhat discouraged by the fact that all five are higher than Ken Pom's projections (though 3 of 5 are within 2 points), but Rome wasn't built in a day:

UT/WVU: 152.8
UVA/Duke: 133.5
CSU/YSU: 151.7
Cuse/BC: 134.5
KU/ISU: 159.4

[mdunlap3]

What does kenpom have as the total for those?

[2daBank]

cant wait to see how it goes! got my pc back finally, been rolling with hoops last week or so, gonna restart thread now that im working with pc and not trying to do everything on my phone. yesterday just had kenpom pulled up on the ps3 cause his site blows trying to use on the iphone! havnt had time to look at card yet, havnt even got pc to my house, at friends who fixed it...

[BiffTFinancial]

What does kenpom have as the total for those?

Will include here. Probably should've done that at outset. Duh.

UT/WVU: 152.8 (KenPom: 151)
UVA/Duke: 133.5 (KenPom: 132)
CSU/YSU: 151.7 (KenPom: 145)
Cuse/BC: 134.5 (KenPom: 134)
KU/ISU: 159.4 (KenPom: 156)

[BiffTFinancial]

cant wait to see how it goes! got my pc back finally, been rolling with hoops last week or so, gonna restart thread now that im working with pc and not trying to do everything on my phone. yesterday just had kenpom pulled up on the ps3 cause his site blows trying to use on the iphone! havnt had time to look at card yet, havnt even got pc to my house, at friends who fixed it...

Me too. I haven't tested at all, and didn't even think about it that deeply, so tweaks certainly will be necessary, but that's part of the fun. I don't even try KenPom site on phone, agree that it's basically impossible and migraine-inducing. Glad to hear that you're up and running again. Tonight, like UVA, CSU/YSU over, BC (missed the good number though) and maybe Iowa State.

[2daBank]

uva looks incredibly tempting. 1st thing that i noticed on card.. dont exactly love the idea of being against puke back at home after a loss but if clemson grinding asses gave them trouble i doubt they gonna enjoy playing against uva, they young so not sure they make the adjustments. i dont really get the line move but for most part that hasnt mattered, like yesterday i had no clue why the illni/nw total kept rising as i had it as a under at 120 or higher so hit it a few times as it rose, sure enough not sure they even hit 100..

[BiffTFinancial]

Monday 1.13.2014
1* Virginia +6 (-105)
1* Cleveland State/Youngstown State over 143

[BiffTFinancial]

uva looks incredibly tempting. 1st thing that i noticed on card.. dont exactly love the idea of being against puke back at home after a loss but if clemson grinding asses gave them trouble i doubt they gonna enjoy playing against uva, they young so not sure they make the adjustments. i dont really get the line move but for most part that hasnt mattered, like yesterday i had no clue why the illni/nw total kept rising as i had it as a under at 120 or higher so hit it a few times as it rose, sure enough not sure they even hit 100..

Couldn't resist, and don't much care about Duke being off a loss. UVA is great at making the game completely unenjoyable for their opponent (ala SLU or Wisky), and i think that's going to be tough for young Duke. BOL tonight Bank. Out to gym, back later.

[BiffTFinancial]

Monday 1.13.2014 final card
1* Virginia +6 (-105) - WINNER
1* Cleveland State/Youngstown State over 143 - LOSER

1-1 -0.1u

Season to Date: 9-8-1 +0.3u

thought we were golden on CSU/YSU over after 80 1H points, but only 53 2H points. bah.

[BiffTFinancial]

Tuesday 1.14.2014
1* George Washington +2'
1* Arkansas +1

[2daBank]

Tuesday 1.14.2014
1* George Washington +2'
1* Arkansas +1

already played GW myself.. that uk/.arky gm seems really tough to me, understand the arky side but didnt feel good about either.. have bunch of thoughts posted here when you have a chance check them out, 1 of the post has my lean on some totals depending on number so be great if you could drop by..

Tues NCAA hoops discussion

[mdunlap3]

I work out here in DC..i might have to stop by that GW game if its not sold out. You don't think VCU will just tire out the GW team?

[pacocn]

Like arky +1

[No coincidences]

Like arky +1

Either Arkansas or Indiana will cash -- just not sure which.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Butler/Creighton over 139 (-105)

Tuesday 1.14.2014 updated card
1* George Washington +2'
1* Arkansas +1
1* Butler/Creighton over 139 (-105)

[BiffTFinancial]

I work out here in DC..i might have to stop by that GW game if its not sold out. You don't think VCU will just tire out the GW team?

You might want to check before you head down there. I saw in a thread at CTG that game is sold out.

I think that this huge game for GW, and VCU offense is struggling except when defense creates TOs. I think that they'll struggle to do that tonight. BOL whatever you decide, esp if you go to the game. Should be a great watch, can't wait.