RG3ING/MURRAY System n Picks

[RG3ING]

There is only one 12pm game and it doesn't fit the model so I will see what's good for the later games.

Yeah I saw it didn't I don't see any that really do today as of now unless I missed one

[maxim79]

hey fellas check the line on the cfb mich st v. northwestern game? i dont get it... seems like a suckers bet vegas is begging you to lay moeny on northwestern makes me think mich st is the play

[A4K]

The updates I post are just my numbers. I'm not sure what RG3's numbers are but you're right I'm taking a lot of games. I think the reason why I have been taking so many games (more than I'd really like to or should) is because, at least initially, the theory seems to work well and I feel that if I don't take a game that fits the theory, or is just outside it, I'm leaving money on the table. But you're right A4K, taking so many games can cause big swings. But when you go over the final scores to all the games with RLM so many teams seem to cover and it makes it so tempting lol.

I'm not criticizing your work. I think you make valid points. Maybe you should examine your results to see if you can refine your theory. Also, why do you guys play the 1H and the whole game?

[Murray Rothbard]

hey fellas check the line on the cfb mich st v. northwestern game? i dont get it... seems like a suckers bet vegas is begging you to lay moeny on northwestern makes me think mich st is the play

Interesting. I see a lot of action on NW (72%) but yet the line keeps moving in their favor? It's weird, usually the public is heavy on the favorite and the line moves in their favor but in this case the public is heavy on the dog and the line is moving in their favor. Not sure how I would proceed with this one. Either way, I'm staying away from football. I've been on a cole streak the last few weeks in CFB so Im going to sit this week out.

[Murray Rothbard]

I'm not criticizing your work. I think you make valid points. Maybe you should examine your results to see if you can refine your theory. Also, why do you guys play the 1H and the whole game?

Again speaking for myself here but this is my reasoning (i would like your input on this). The reason why I play both 1H and whole games is because the RLM tells me the books believe the game is going to be closer than the public imagines. However, the way I see it, I am still taking a dog meaning that more than likely they will lose the whole game and or get blown out 2H. So in order to hedge against a loss for the game I also take 1H in the hopes that I cover both but at the very least split the two and still come out on top by a little bit money wise. That is also why you will notice I bet $30 in 1H but $25 for the game.

[Murray Rothbard]

Here are my leans for today boys.

UMKC v Albany NY (-9) @ 9/8.5 – 230pm – 67%

Seattle U v Virginia (-14.5) @ 13.5 – 4pm – 73%

St Bonaventure (-6.5) v Canisius @ 3.5/3 – 4pm – 69%

W Illinois v Evansville (-9) @ 5 – 830pm – 72%

Samford v Memphis (-25) @ 23.5 – 8pm – 71%

Wisc Green Bay v Nevada (-4) @ 3 – 9pm – 71%

[Murray Rothbard]

Possible adding this to 2pm play.

N Dakota v N Iowa (-16) @ 16 – 2pm – 62%


Doesn't quite fit the system but may still take it.

[Murray Rothbard]

2PM Plays locked in:

UMKC +8
1H UMKC +4.5

N Dakota +16
1H N Dakota +8.5

As I did yesterday, and will more than likely continue to do the rest of the season, is risk $33/$30 for 1H plays and risk $28/$25 for the whole game. Good luck today fella's.

[RG3ING]

I'm gonna try all 1h plays today loCked in
Umkc 1h +4.5
North Dakota 1h +9

[Murray Rothbard]

I'm gonna try all 1h plays today loCked in
Umkc 1h +4.5
North Dakota 1h +9

Any reasoning? I'm just curious.

[RG3ING]

Cause normally they keep it close in1h an blow it for game idk

[shooms79]

Get em Boys...thanks for the posts!

[Murray Rothbard]

4PM Plays:

CANISIUS +3½
1H CANISIUS +1½

SEATTLE U +14
1H SEATTLE U +7½

[tr4sh]

This is a very interesting post. I really like Bonnie today though but I'll tag along for a little on seattle. bol to you guys.

[RG3ING]

System plays Murray?? These last 2 games?? Hunting dont have time to look

[Murray Rothbard]

System plays Murray?? These last 2 games?? Hunting dont have time to look

According to my sites they are.

[RG3ING]

This is a very interesting post. I really like Bonnie today though but I'll tag along for a little on seattle. bol to you guys.

What's ur reasoning for bonnie

[RG3ING]

According to my sites they are.

Sweet Murray I was waiting to see if he had any good trends or insight on Bonnie since he liked it.. Locked in on seattle1h waiting on Bonnie game til 358

[RG3ING]

Locked in
Can. +1.5 1h
Seattle +7.5 1h
Need both of these bad come on damnit!!!!!!!

[tr4sh]

Bonnie has been doing fairly well covering the spread in the last handful of games. They have a knack of getting to the free throw line and have a decent freshman and a decent bench in general coming off the bench.

Along with that Cainius played against a pretty bad team (Boston University) where they needed well above average shooting % to hold them off. The 3-4 day layoff I believe will probably make them more rusty than anything at this point (my unproven theory, rest is good for old, not for young). The rest imo is the bigger factor for me as I think it'll lead them to coming out flat and if at any point the shots aren't falling, it might be a full blown disaster.

just my 2 cents.

[RG3ING]

Theory on betting either all 1h or all total game my best thought would be its gonna save me juice in the long run pushing 2 bets(2 games)rather then pushing 4 bets(2 games) an our record shows we hit more 1h then game bets so that was my thinking plus last couple days i have been winning my 1h then losing game an it was driving me nuts!!

[RG3ING]

Bonnie has been doing fairly well covering the spread in the last handful of games. They have a knack of getting to the free throw line and have a decent freshman and a decent bench in general coming off the bench.

Along with that Cainius played against a pretty bad team (Boston University) where they needed well above average shooting % to hold them off. The 3-4 day layoff I believe will probably make them more rusty than anything at this point (my unproven theory, rest is good for old, not for young). The rest imo is the bigger factor for me as I think it'll lead them to coming out flat and if at any point the shots aren't falling, it might be a full blown disaster.

just my 2 cents.

Good insight real good next time get it to us before tip lol bol

[Murray Rothbard]

5PM Plays:

WAKE FOREST +3
1H WAKE FOREST +2

Apparently the public is on Wake Forest not Iona which is weird so this wont be a system play however I already took it so I'll just leave up here for my own purposes.

[16johnnymac]

[they did and lost


QUOTE=RG3ING;16808790]Locked in
Can. +1.5 1h
Seattle +7.5 1h
Need both of these bad come on damnit!!!!!!![/QUOTE]

[Murray Rothbard]

So that Wake Forest mistake is about to cost $61.

[Murray Rothbard]

Last plays of the night, will update later.

WESTERN ILLINOIS +5
1H WESTERN ILLINOIS +3

LOYOLA CHICAGO +7½
1H LOYOLA CHICAGO +4

[16johnnymac]

Hey there old timer can u give me any advice on the So Utah Cs full hoops game?

Thank you

Sir

[Murray Rothbard]

Hey there old timer can u give me any advice on the So Utah Cs full hoops game?

Thank you

Sir

Line movement is going in the normal direction so I'm not playing it. GL if you do.

[Murray Rothbard]

UMKC +8 -WIN
1H UMKC +4.5 -WIN

N Dakota +16 -LOSS
1H N Dakota +8.5 -LOSS

CANISIUS +3½
1H CANISIUS +1½

SEATTLE U +14 -LOSS
1H SEATTLE U +7½ -LOSS

WESTERN ILLINOIS +5 -PUSH
1H WESTERN ILLINOIS +3 -WIN

LOYOLA CHICAGO +7½ -LOSS
1H LOYOLA CHICAGO +4 -LOSS

11/17/12: 4-7-1 -$105

YTD: 28-20-2 ~58% +$293

======================================== ============

Disappointing day to say the least, but I guess everyday can't be a profitable day so I can't complain too much. On a brighter note, I'm still up for the week and there will be plenty of more games tomorrow for me to try and make up for todays losses.

[RG3ING]

0-3 yesterday -6.3 units oh man looking for a bounce back day!!
Skins ml pound it!!!!!!!

[Murray Rothbard]

Hey guys, I will be busy today with school work so i'm not sure when I'll be able to check back in but here are all the games I've taken for today. As the season progresses and as I analyze past games taken I will be adjusting and tweaking the way I take bets. Going forward, according to what I have been seeing, I will continue to take 1H's and whole games, however, I will be loosening my criteria a bit wrt public sentiment. If I see RLM of a point or higher I will jump on the game asap in order to get the most value from my bets. While doing this runs the risk of the line eventually moving in the right direction it is the risk I am willing to take to get the best value.

Mid Tennesse +10

Rhode Island +9.5

Southern Utah +15

Quinnipiac +10

E Illinois +4.5

Wofford +17

1H Mid Tennessee +6

1H Rhode Island +5

1H Southern Utah +8.5

1H Quinnipiac +6

1H E Illinois +2.5

1H Wofford +9.5

As usual, 1H bets are $33/$30 and whole game bets are $28/25 (unless juice varies). BOL everybody!

[Murray Rothbard]

ADDED:

E Washington +21.5
1H E Washington +12

[BRed325]

Is your shirt on or off today?

[Murray Rothbard]

11/18/12 UPDATE:

Mid Tennessee +10 -LOSS

Rhode Island +9.5 -WIN

Southern Utah +15 -LOSS

Quinnipiac +10 -WIN

E Illinois +4.5 -WIN

Wofford +17 -LOSS

1H Mid Tennessee +6 -WIN

1H Rhode Island +5 -WIN

1H Southern Utah +8.5 -WIN

1H Quinnipiac +6 -WIN

1H E Illinois +2.5 -WIN

1H Wofford +9.5 -LOSS

E Washington +21.5 -WIN

1H E Washington +12 -WIN

11/18/12: 10-4 - $163

YTD: 30-24-2 ~55 $456

======================================== ===============

Good way to end the week.

[blackeyeshamus]