EP36's 2nd Half Formula Plays

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice. FSU-Tulsa gets done late, at least some nice luck there.

[EaglesPhan36]

phan idk how you get those lines. Thats the second time this week i was killed by the hook (BYU at 81.5)

I get on them as soon as I crunch the #s and then get here to post as quick as possible. If you have Twitter, look me up on there - some guys have said that they get a notice quicker that way. Same screen name as here. Could be possible that my book also has slightly different lines - using Intertops mainly of late.

[EaglesPhan36]

Illinois game damn near got done. Too many missed FTs after the old drought for half the half. 1-1-1 on those picks. Really thought at least two would cash.

[EXhoosier10]

I've looked at sides a little more, but there's no formula for sides with me. I look over the numbers, teams and game flow to look at some potential plays ... totals as I said when I started, I do plug the stats in the formula, but it's not strictly where there is a play if the numbers match taking an over or under. The last batch of games for example had a couple potential plays, but one of my keys is not playing a lot of games where there is a ridiculous FG% made in a half - Indiana - or shit shooting all over - Cincy & Xavier. Those may continue or they may totally go the other direction. I generally try to utilize the games where the shooting percentages are somewhere in the range of what the teams usually do without the huge +/-.

I know sometimes teams just have super good or super terrible games, but my entire 2h system is betting on teams regressing to the mean in the 2h. For example, team A is a 10 point favorite for the entire game and in the first half, team A shoots .600 and team B shoots .300 and the halftime score is a 10 point margin. If they both shot .450ish, team A will miss ~ 3 more shots and team B will make ~3 more shots. so 2h line should be team B -2 or something and I bet on that.

Obviously I can make it a lot better by regressing to actual season fg% for each team, taking into account pace of play, rebounds, turnovers, propensity for 3's, etc, but as a simplistic model, it's already pretty good. Just some food for thought

[EaglesPhan36]

UMass -2 [-110]

[OhMyEli]

UMass blowing hard early in this second half

[EaglesPhan36]

Ohio State-Chicago State Under 73.5 [-110]

[OhMyEli]

Any thoughts on UF v. AFU? Over set at 70 looks suspect but I like it.

[EaglesPhan36]

That was a tough call. Total was a little short of the # of possessions, but it's a jump shooting game - so fouls might not help an over. Decided to pass. Sorry about UMASS fellas, they sucked in the 2nd half. Gonna stick to the totals today.

[Jerm3085]

Too many fuuukkking 3's!!!

[Jerm3085]

Of course they're going to foul and down 100 pts, good job refs

[EaglesPhan36]

We snuck it out gents! Chicago State was definitely pissing me off still fouling, but finishes at 70.

[Jerm3085]

Haha thank God for the reverse jinx! We pulled it out despite some great shooting by Oh st!

[Jerm3085]

We snuck it out gents! Chicago State was definitely pissing me off still fouling, but finishes at 70.

Thanks again EP for a nail biter, I usually try to stay away from unders in bball but liked this one! gL!

[EaglesPhan36]

Tell me about it bro. They're always scary, but gotta go where the #s say to go. In blowouts where one team really sucks like Chicago State did here - I usually don't mind rolling with it if the #s line up. Expected OSU to score in the mid 40s, so thought if they kept C-State under 30 this would have a shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Xavier +5.5 [-105]

Can't resist this one even though I promised only totals.

[EXhoosier10]

Xavier +5.5 [-105]

Can't resist this one even though I promised only totals.

im with you on this. gl dude

[EaglesPhan36]

Fuggin whipped back up to 6. Damn it. Hope that doesn't bite me in the ass.

[jimm246]

Fuggin whipped back up to 6. Damn it. Hope that doesn't bite me in the ass.

No worrys looking good

[EaglesPhan36]

Meh. Shit fest of a 2nd half. Xavier still dominant on the boards, so hoping they get some offense off that. Would have taken the under, but even with the track records of both playing low scoring 2nd halves lately in defensive battles ... 65 is such a low number that I hate to try.

[EaglesPhan36]

Michigan-Central Michigan Over 73.5 [-110]

[OhMyEli]

Michigan-Central Michigan Over 73.5 [-110]

I'm on this to get back a little bit, lets hope your good run isnt going cold

[EaglesPhan36]

Definitely no more sides tonight. Should have stuck to that with the Xavier game.

[OhMyEli]

Michigan-Central Michigan Over 73.5 [-110]

Thank you buddy, so great not having to sweat out plays

[EaglesPhan36]

UConn-Washington Over 72.5 [-110]

[Jerm3085]

UConn-Washington Over 72.5 [-110]

Going to need OT for this one, both teams shooting poorly

[EaglesPhan36]

Fouls dried up too.

[jimm246]

UConn-Washington Over 72.5 [-110]

two sux ass. i dont think its going to make to ot

[Jerm3085]

two sux ass. i dont think its going to make to ot

Not sure that would help anyways, we would need triple OT prob

[EaglesPhan36]

Well if I laid off the sides today, would be up ... instead .500. One more total on the board I believe with CSF-UCSB. Will see if that one has a play later.

[EaglesPhan36]

CSF-UCSB Under 78.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Knew this one was going to give me night terrors. Guard the 3 pt line dudes. Need to start skipping these that have massive gaps in the + of possessions.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pretty sure both teams are shooting 60 some odd percent this half. Well penetrate a duck.

[bigguyz]

Knew this one was going to give me night terrors. Guard the 3 pt line dudes. Need to start skipping these that have massive gaps in the + of possessions.

This ones over

[jimm246]

EP are you in the west coast or east?