2011-2012 Season
Overvalued Teams for first 25 games
A) Clippers. The Clippers are stacked. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team go pretty deep in the West this year. Paul is a proven winner in this league and so is Billups. With these two in the back court, I expect Griffin to develop into a much better player. Let's not forget about the addition of Caron Butler who is undoubtedly the Clippers best perimeter defender now. If Butler goes down before the playoffs I don't see the clippers doing anything. He's the only guy on the clippers that can handle dynamic 2 guards. MoWill and Foye off the bench are good scoring threats and Deandre Jordan is blossoming but this team is missing a few pieces from winning a championship. For the first 20 games or so I think the Clippers will be good but will lose to some of the better teams in the league.
B) Portland?? The Blazers are a good team but I don't know what to make of them. The addition of Jamal Crawford was huge but this team needed a center. Camby is not gonna stay healthy the whole season and that's a fact. LA put on no weight in the offseason. Crawford is an iso player. Felton is overrated. This team has too many slow players. Gerald Wallace is a good player but he just stands around too at times. This team will beat a lot of teams but will also get exposed by quicker teams.
Undervalued Teams
A) Minnesota Timberwolves.
The minnesota timberwolves will be the most undervalued team by the books through the entire season.
This team has so much talent and the perception that they will once again finish at the bottom of the NBA standings is a big mistake. The Twolves have the biggest front line in the NBA. At the C they have Darko who's finally turning into a decent player after being the 2nd pick in the 03 draft. At the PF, they have Kevin Love, who is an absolute beast and has been working on his 3 point shot in the offseason. He's going to be a nightmare matchup this year for opposing PF's. At the 3 they have Michael Beasely, the 2nd pick in the draft 3 years ago. He can be erratic at times but he's a nightmare matchup too because he's a big guy that can put the ball on floor and is a lefty too. They also have Brad Miller, Anthony Randolph, and Derrick Williams who is a future stud in this league. They picked up Jose Barea and also drafted Ricky Rubio (not sure what to make of this guy yet but he's a good passer) and don't forget about Wesley Johnson who is also a future All star. Webster is a good player too. Both these guys are very tall for their positions.
To top it all off we got Rick Adelman coaching this team, one of the best coaches in the league.
B) 76ers. 76ers were my under the radar team to watch for last year. I selected them to make the playoffs and they did not disappoint. Well I stand by the sixers this year as they are only getting better. With Dough Collins, this team is the real deal.
The books kind of caught on to the sixers towards the end of last year and started setting higher spreads. If Elton Brand can stay healthy this team will make the playoffs again guaranteed. A lot of talent on this team.
All bets will be through local unless specific. If I play online I will name the book at post ss if needed. Books I play at include justbet, betislands, BetOnline, and 5dimes.
NBA FUTURES BETS
Miami Heat Over 50.5 -120 Wins Risk $60 - I feel this should be around 53. Bearing any injury setbacks Miami will win 50+ games this year. They went on a ridiculous run last year after starting the season 9-8. I will have a lot more to say about Miami has the season plays out.
Miami +200 to win the NBA championship
Risk $700 to win $1400
This will be the first time that I ever bet on an NBA champion future before the season starts. I usually let the season play out but I'm fully convinced that Miami will win it all this year. Last year I guaranteed Miami to come out of the East but did not guarantee they would beat Dallas although I did think they would. When someone just looks at Miami's roster, they'll say, "they didn't do much, I don't think they will win." I'm not going to go into detail on this as I usually would but lets just say that Lebron James is a much different player than he was last year. Miami got rid of most of the scrubs that were hurting them last year. Don't forget about Udonis. 2 of the 3 best players on the planet on one team. It's not practical to see teams having to guard these two over the course of 7 games. Aside from the Knicks who if "on" can be a scary team, there's no one in the East that can beat Miami in a 7 game series.
Don't worry, Derrick Rose will win a ring down the road guaranteed, but it won't be for at least 2-3 years.
Memphis +1000 to win the West Risk $50
In the Western Conference, I like the Grizzlies to get into the playoffs and then do damage once they are there. Memphis is going to be very very good and Rudy Gay is not just an all star, he is a superstar in this league when healthy. Grizz have a lot to look forward too. A lot to discuss about this team but we can talk about details once playoffs start because Memphis will be there.
No one is talking about Dallas this year and that's fine because they are not coming out of the west. Dallas is dumb for letting caron butler go. This guy hasn't played a full season in years and he's over 30 but more like 27 with all the games he's missed. There's just too many old guys on this team and I can guarantee Jason Kidd is done. Odom is a nice addition but this team just doesn't have that "it" factor it did last year. You can bet Dallas isn't going into this year with a chip on their shoulders.
ATS Bets
-150 or more MLs
+150 Dogs
Live Bets
Christmas Day Bets
1) Miami ML/OKC ML -105 Risk $105
I may be taking the Lakers on Christmas. Kobe is confirmed playing and the Lakers haven't gotten points at since since....never. I may or may not take this depending on how the line moves, but what's pushing me towards this bet is 2 things. Hamilton starting at the 2 against Kobe. Hamilton will get exposed. I expect the Lakers to throw both Artest, Bryant, and Fisher all on Rose to try to slow him down. If the game is close in the 4th I trust Bryant to shut down Rose. Additionally, Boozer is a horrible defender and Gasol should be able to abuse him offensively. The Bulls should be able to win this game but Hamilton is one of the worst 2guard defenders in the NBA (Detroit is my home team) and that will come back to haunt them come playoff time.
If I take the Lakers it will be for $55. Note that at the beginning of the year my plays are very small because I need to get the rhythm. My NBA plays are fairly larger than my NFL plays and I drop thousands on games at times. I am obsessed with the NBA.
Good luck this season.
Overvalued Teams for first 25 games
A) Clippers. The Clippers are stacked. I wouldn't be surprised to see this team go pretty deep in the West this year. Paul is a proven winner in this league and so is Billups. With these two in the back court, I expect Griffin to develop into a much better player. Let's not forget about the addition of Caron Butler who is undoubtedly the Clippers best perimeter defender now. If Butler goes down before the playoffs I don't see the clippers doing anything. He's the only guy on the clippers that can handle dynamic 2 guards. MoWill and Foye off the bench are good scoring threats and Deandre Jordan is blossoming but this team is missing a few pieces from winning a championship. For the first 20 games or so I think the Clippers will be good but will lose to some of the better teams in the league.
B) Portland?? The Blazers are a good team but I don't know what to make of them. The addition of Jamal Crawford was huge but this team needed a center. Camby is not gonna stay healthy the whole season and that's a fact. LA put on no weight in the offseason. Crawford is an iso player. Felton is overrated. This team has too many slow players. Gerald Wallace is a good player but he just stands around too at times. This team will beat a lot of teams but will also get exposed by quicker teams.
Undervalued Teams
A) Minnesota Timberwolves.
The minnesota timberwolves will be the most undervalued team by the books through the entire season.
This team has so much talent and the perception that they will once again finish at the bottom of the NBA standings is a big mistake. The Twolves have the biggest front line in the NBA. At the C they have Darko who's finally turning into a decent player after being the 2nd pick in the 03 draft. At the PF, they have Kevin Love, who is an absolute beast and has been working on his 3 point shot in the offseason. He's going to be a nightmare matchup this year for opposing PF's. At the 3 they have Michael Beasely, the 2nd pick in the draft 3 years ago. He can be erratic at times but he's a nightmare matchup too because he's a big guy that can put the ball on floor and is a lefty too. They also have Brad Miller, Anthony Randolph, and Derrick Williams who is a future stud in this league. They picked up Jose Barea and also drafted Ricky Rubio (not sure what to make of this guy yet but he's a good passer) and don't forget about Wesley Johnson who is also a future All star. Webster is a good player too. Both these guys are very tall for their positions.
To top it all off we got Rick Adelman coaching this team, one of the best coaches in the league.
B) 76ers. 76ers were my under the radar team to watch for last year. I selected them to make the playoffs and they did not disappoint. Well I stand by the sixers this year as they are only getting better. With Dough Collins, this team is the real deal.
The books kind of caught on to the sixers towards the end of last year and started setting higher spreads. If Elton Brand can stay healthy this team will make the playoffs again guaranteed. A lot of talent on this team.
All bets will be through local unless specific. If I play online I will name the book at post ss if needed. Books I play at include justbet, betislands, BetOnline, and 5dimes.
NBA FUTURES BETS
Miami Heat Over 50.5 -120 Wins Risk $60 - I feel this should be around 53. Bearing any injury setbacks Miami will win 50+ games this year. They went on a ridiculous run last year after starting the season 9-8. I will have a lot more to say about Miami has the season plays out.
Miami +200 to win the NBA championship
Risk $700 to win $1400
This will be the first time that I ever bet on an NBA champion future before the season starts. I usually let the season play out but I'm fully convinced that Miami will win it all this year. Last year I guaranteed Miami to come out of the East but did not guarantee they would beat Dallas although I did think they would. When someone just looks at Miami's roster, they'll say, "they didn't do much, I don't think they will win." I'm not going to go into detail on this as I usually would but lets just say that Lebron James is a much different player than he was last year. Miami got rid of most of the scrubs that were hurting them last year. Don't forget about Udonis. 2 of the 3 best players on the planet on one team. It's not practical to see teams having to guard these two over the course of 7 games. Aside from the Knicks who if "on" can be a scary team, there's no one in the East that can beat Miami in a 7 game series.
Don't worry, Derrick Rose will win a ring down the road guaranteed, but it won't be for at least 2-3 years.
Memphis +1000 to win the West Risk $50
In the Western Conference, I like the Grizzlies to get into the playoffs and then do damage once they are there. Memphis is going to be very very good and Rudy Gay is not just an all star, he is a superstar in this league when healthy. Grizz have a lot to look forward too. A lot to discuss about this team but we can talk about details once playoffs start because Memphis will be there.
No one is talking about Dallas this year and that's fine because they are not coming out of the west. Dallas is dumb for letting caron butler go. This guy hasn't played a full season in years and he's over 30 but more like 27 with all the games he's missed. There's just too many old guys on this team and I can guarantee Jason Kidd is done. Odom is a nice addition but this team just doesn't have that "it" factor it did last year. You can bet Dallas isn't going into this year with a chip on their shoulders.
ATS Bets
-150 or more MLs
+150 Dogs
Live Bets
Christmas Day Bets
1) Miami ML/OKC ML -105 Risk $105
I may be taking the Lakers on Christmas. Kobe is confirmed playing and the Lakers haven't gotten points at since since....never. I may or may not take this depending on how the line moves, but what's pushing me towards this bet is 2 things. Hamilton starting at the 2 against Kobe. Hamilton will get exposed. I expect the Lakers to throw both Artest, Bryant, and Fisher all on Rose to try to slow him down. If the game is close in the 4th I trust Bryant to shut down Rose. Additionally, Boozer is a horrible defender and Gasol should be able to abuse him offensively. The Bulls should be able to win this game but Hamilton is one of the worst 2guard defenders in the NBA (Detroit is my home team) and that will come back to haunt them come playoff time.
If I take the Lakers it will be for $55. Note that at the beginning of the year my plays are very small because I need to get the rhythm. My NBA plays are fairly larger than my NFL plays and I drop thousands on games at times. I am obsessed with the NBA.
Good luck this season.
bet them to be the champs on feb, recognize
You won't disappear because your entire life revolves around complementing yourself on the forum. 11 thousand fukin posts. How the fuk is that even possible.