John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[stevex]

Correct Wallco. I'm playing spread (not buying points) whether it's a favorite or dog. I think there was only 2-3 times last year where buying the 3 points would have made a difference.

[Wallco99]

JM Disciple if thats the way the record was kept in last years thread, then I'll skip the ML filter. No doubt -6 on the spread will be better value than the ML, but it may cost more series losses. If you can confirm we did this last season I'll roll with it.

I have not chosen a definitive way to run my labby yet. Usually my labby is on 2 lines, single line averaging. A/C on 1 B on 2. However I may just run 1 line this season and play A B and C on just 1 line. I'm also experimenting with the 3 line aggressive. 1 line each for A B and C, adding losses to the end but not adding new numbers. Just testing it to see which is more efficient before January. Do you have a proven method for this system? From the looks of it your just using 1 line?

Some people played it that way, but the records were kept with M/L on favorites and buying 3 points on dogs.

[Wallco99]

Correct Wallco. I'm playing spread (not buying points) whether it's a favorite or dog. I think there was only 2-3 times last year where buying the 3 points would have made a difference.

I'm in, you and I did well like this last year. I am taking it one step further. I am playing ALL games at -110, and playing to win 1 unit on (A), 3 units on (B), and 5 units on (C). Total loss will be 17.28 units. A JM loss costs 18.68 units. The extra money I make from all the (B) and (C) bet wins should help to offset extra losses I may have as a result of playing all -110.

[J.M. Disciple]

i will continue to post plays with labby not buying points and I think everyone is fine with TheLimit posting plays the way he is doing it.

Buy 3pts whether Dog or favorite. Wilba researched the ML Rule and that was a BS rule.

Ps
I wanted to ask about your chase110. Last year in playoffs when SAS played MEMphis they were favorite almost every game and would of been a system loss. Do you only play regular season with the chase110 because it may not be possible to complete a series?

all in all
Thelimit post JM plays via chase JM strategy (buy 3pts)
JMdisciple: Labby with JM plays (not buying points)
Wallco: chase110

I think these should be the only 3 being posted in this forum. Let people choose if they want to labby or chase.

PPS: big losses will occur with ML favorites and it will cost a lot more then 20 units when it does, which is why ML rule is BS.

[Wallco99]

i will continue to post plays with labby not buying points and I think everyone is fine with TheLimit posting plays the way he is doing it.

Buy 3pts whether Dog or favorite. Wilba researched the ML Rule and that was a BS rule.

Ps
I wanted to ask about your chase110. Last year in playoffs when SAS played MEMphis they were favorite almost every game and would of been a system loss. Do you only play regular season with the chase110 because it may not be possible to complete a series?

all in all
Thelimit post JM plays via chase JM strategy (buy 3pts)
JMdisciple: Labby with JM plays (not buying points)
Wallco: chase110

I think these should be the only 3 being posted in this forum. Let people choose if they want to labby or chase.

PPS: big losses will occur with ML favorites and it will cost a lot more then 20 units when it does, which is why ML rule is BS.

Yes, I never tested playoffs, regular season only. Only start a series if that team has at least 4 regular season games remaining. M/L on favs, and (-110) on dogs in Chase 110.

[thelimit0310]

Okay well just to end this dispute now. Wallco owns the thread and he claims the official record used the ML on favs greater than -3 as per rule so thats how it will be. If it is a BS rule, oh well, but thats how the record will be kept in the name of consistent accuracy.

I'll update everything after tonights plays, Chicago would be an A bet win and so tonight's bet would be voided.

[Wallco99]

i will continue to post plays with labby not buying points and I think everyone is fine with TheLimit posting plays the way he is doing it.

Buy 3pts whether Dog or favorite. Wilba researched the ML Rule and that was a BS rule.

Ps
I wanted to ask about your chase110. Last year in playoffs when SAS played MEMphis they were favorite almost every game and would of been a system loss. Do you only play regular season with the chase110 because it may not be possible to complete a series?

all in all
Thelimit post JM plays via chase JM strategy (buy 3pts)
JMdisciple: Labby with JM plays (not buying points)
Wallco: chase110

I think these should be the only 3 being posted in this forum. Let people choose if they want to labby or chase.

PPS: big losses will occur with ML favorites and it will cost a lot more then 20 units when it does, which is why ML rule is BS.

Actually, If the playoffs would have counted last year, San Antonio would have won the (A) bet.

[Wallco99]

Okay well just to end this dispute now. Wallco owns the thread and he claims the official record used the ML on favs greater than -3 as per rule so thats how it will be. If it is a BS rule, oh well, but thats how the record will be kept in the name of consistent accuracy.

I'll update everything after tonights plays, Chicago would be an A bet win and so tonight's bet would be voided.

I don't own anything, this is a public thread, I was just making a suggestion. I am playing it all at (-110) anyway, I just know how many questions are going to be asked by the newbies, over and over and over again, about M/L vs. 3 points. I was just stating how he did it last year. Whatever floats your boat. Anything you do will be appreciated. Thanks for stepping up, I have enough to do at the moment.

[J.M. Disciple]

I thought chase110 was based on spread and not ML. my fault, you are correct if ML is the rule then A bet would of been rule in the play offs.

[J.M. Disciple]

I am still going the labby for tonights game on Chi.

[Wallco99]

I thought chase110 was based on spread and not ML. my fault, you are correct if ML is the rule then A bet would of been rule in the play offs.

I just remember a lot more losses as a result of playing point spreads on favorites when I did my backtests. The majority of the time we are on the (-110) bets, but there are the occasions when M/L came into play.

[J.M. Disciple]

Were there losses on A B and C? I think if you continued on B and C one of the spreads would covered had the ML won on A>

[J.M. Disciple]

Bulls looking shaky! I think like 8 turn overs so far. Both teams are shooting great though when they get the shot off. Maybe take the Over 2nd half when it is released. If Ellis slows down Chi will be ok. Ellis has like 13pts 1st quarter already. RUN and GUN team this year.

[J.M. Disciple]

Anyone on Bulls 2nd half?

[thelimit0310]

I don't own anything, this is a public thread, I was just making a suggestion. I am playing it all at (-110) anyway, I just know how many questions are going to be asked by the newbies, over and over and over again, about M/L vs. 3 points. I was just stating how he did it last year. Whatever floats your boat. Anything you do will be appreciated. Thanks for stepping up, I have enough to do at the moment.

If Kryzchu used the ML filter for last years record then I will do the same

[ChiLLx]

Philly +8 is a winner tonight. 2-0 if you count Chicago ML last night as a winner.

[stevex]

God damn I'm glad I reloaded my accounts for this year!

Cheers to making some money this year fellas. It's better than letting it sit in my savings account! Ha

Just to let every one know and any newbies that are jumping aboard for this year. There will be a couple of losses possibly so (and trust me I've learned through experience because I did it for JM MLB if you guys remember) don't bet out of your limits, stay in a comfortable range. There will be times where you might be down a little, but rest assured if you use proper money management you will be in the positive at the end of the season!

[Win89]

Looking back at last years results I don't think there was a problem with a team covering on the B or C if they won ML on the A.

[thelimit0310]

Looking back at last years results I don't think there was a problem with a team covering on the B or C if they won ML on the A.

I will be betting on the spread at -110 as many others are. So Chicago is still an open series for me. However, for the sake of consistent accuracy, since past records take the filter into account, the ML rule will be kept for the official record and plays. While the team may still cover, it screws with the win-loss record on individual bets. If you don't want to play this rule just bet the spread. If we can come to a consensus here as to whether or not to vote on ousting the ML rule from this point forward I will do that. But it must be decided quickly. Otherwise the ML filter stays.

Note this makes the Bulls an A bet win.

[thelimit0310]

December 26

V1 PHILADELPHIA +7.5 @ Portland (A) WIN
V1 CHICAGO -3.5 @ Golden State Warriors (B) LOSS

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 1-1
B: 0-1
C: 0-0

Version 2
A: 0-0
B: 0-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 1-0
B: 0-0
C: 0-0

Totals
A: 2-1
B: 0-1
C: 0-0

[thelimit0310]

December 27

No plays for JM 2011/12

[J.M. Disciple]

JM NBA road System
Since 12/25/2011
Add 1 unit to the line if its cleared buying 3 points
Unit size $10
Record:2-2 [ATS]
Profit: -$2.05
Units cleared: 2
Units in play: 2.2
Total Series: 3 (1Pending)


Old Labby Line:
7 / 7 / 7

New Line
$11.03 / $11.03

Bos +5 $11 to win $10 (A) Win
Chi -4 $11 to win $10 (A) Loss
Philadelphia 76ers* +5 -110 vs Portland Trailblazers
Risking $11.55 To Win $10.50 (A) WIN
Basketball 723 Chicago Bulls* -6½ -110 vs Golden State Warriors
Risking $11.55 To Win $10.50 (B) Lose

Upcoming bets:
12/28/11 NYK [A] vs GSW
12/29/11 Chicago Bulls [C] vs Sac
12/29/11 NJN [A] vs ORL

[Bugs Bunny]

If Kryzchu used the ML filter for last years record then I will do the same

please don't use the ML filter... a loss is a loss...
it's impractical to bet the ML on favourites

keep up the good work!

[Kev the Brit]

please don't use the ML filter... a loss is a loss... it's impractical to bet the ML on favourites keep up the good work!

So you'll be playing the Bulls' C bet then?

[knugen]

I'll be playing Bulls C bet

[Andy3568]

Has anyone tried buying fewer points? Some books don't allow 3 points, and I was wondering if you could do better buying 2 points.

[lawalahmed]

Last year Final Record (2010/2011):

[COLOR=#000000 !important] JM's NBA system (injury filter and ML filter are not applied):


V1record so far (finished series): 57-3
(A): 30-30
(B): 22-8
(C): 5-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 30-1
(A): 17-14
(B): 5-9
(C): 8-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 67-3
(A): 41-28-1 (W-L-P)
(B): 22-7-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 5-2-1 (W-L-P)
Lost series:
CLE 12/04-07
TOR 01/29-02/02 (B bet and C bet were pushes according to covers.com)
GS 03/18-21

Next JM's plays:
System of 2010/2011 is over now. Hope we'll meet again in the autumn.[/COLOR]
Points Awarded:
PanamaKid gave krzychu78 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
jcygts6 gave krzychu78 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
ken23lau gave krzychu78 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
ghislaine gave krzychu78 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
mcmister gave krzychu78 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.




By: Krzych78

[lawalahmed]

How to eliminate loses by Stanley77 Below:

I understand that it's risky to chase teams and there are chances that you can lose series on these games. The same happens when chasing NHL teams. I realized a way that you can actually eliminate series losses. I have checked back previous seasons of NBA and NHL teams and their betting lines and it seems to make a lot of sense now. This means that there are some series games that you have to pass on, even if it wins.

So this is how it should work for both NBA:

NBA: Buy 3 points on any team that is on a consecutive road trip for at least 3 games if their next consecutive road trip for at least 3 games doesn't occur within one month later. If they are on a road trip for at least 4 games, then it stops on the "D" bet. Also, do not bet on them within a month before their last game of the season.

NHL: Bet on a team that is on a consecutive road trip for at least 3 games if their next consecutive road trip for at least 3 games doesn't occur within one month later. If they are on a road trip for at least 4 games, then it stops on the "D" bet. If they are favorites, bet on the money line. If they are underdogs, bet on the +1.5 puck line. Also, do not bet on them within a month before their last game of the season.

Here are examples in the NBA:
The Sacramento Kings series lost between 10/29/2008 and 11/3/2008. Everyone thought that you had to play a version 1 bet, which it lost, but they actually covered on against the Minnesota Timberwolves. So it's really regardless of conference and they didn't have another consecutive road trip for at least 3 games within a month after that series.

The Houston Rockets series lost between 12/23/2009 and 12/27/2009. They had a 3-game consecutive road trip within a month after that series. John Morrison made a B.S. excuse saying to bet on the money line on favorites after the Rockets lost out on that series between 12/23/2009 and 12/27/2009. So you don't bet on the first series (12/23/2009 and 12/27/2009).

The Denver Nuggets series lost between 3/23/2010 and 3/29/2010. This series occurred within a month before their last game of the season. Also, they won on the "D" bet with the 3-point buying. John Morrison said that they won on the "C" bet by playing the money line. You have to remember that you don't have to play the money line on favorites in the NBA.

The Sacramento Kings series lost between 2/17/2010 and 2/21/2010. They had a 3-game consecutive road trip within a month after that series. So you don't bet on the first series (2/17/2010 and 2/21/2010).

Here are examples in the NHL:
The St. Louis Blues series lost between 1/5/2006 and 1/15/2006. They had a 6-game series within a month after that series. So you don't bet on the first series (1/5/2006 and 1/15/2006).

The St. Louis Blues series lost between 3/16/2006 and 3/20/2006. This series occurred within a month before their last game of the season.

The Edmonton Oilers series lost between 10/22/2008 and 10/25/2008. They had a 7-game series within a month after that series. So you don't bet on the first series (10/22/2008 and 10/25/2008).

The Carolina Hurricanes series lost between 1/8/2009 and 1/13/2009. They had a 4-game series within a month after that series. So you don't bet on the first series (1/8/2009 and 1/13/2009).

The Anaheim Ducks series lost between 12/31/2009 and 1/3/2010. They had a 6-game series within a month after that series. So you don't bet on the first series (12/31/2009 and 1/3/2010).

The Dallas Stars series lost between 1/10/2010 and 1/14/2010. They had a 3-game series within a month after that series. So you don't bet on the first series (1/10/2010 and 1/14/2010).

The Anaheim Ducks series lost between 10/8/2010 and 10/11/2010. They had a 4-game series within a month after that series. So you don't bet on the first series (10/8/2010 and 10/11/2010).


So under these NBA and NHL guidelines, if teams lose on the first series, bet on them on the second series. Do not bet on them on the first series if their next consecutive road trip of at least 3 games occurs within a month later. This way, you will eliminate series losses.

[lawalahmed]

JM NBA SYSTEM, Previous season backtested by Krzych78 below:

I’ve backtested 3 seasons of JM’s NBA systems. If someone’s interested, here’s what I get:

Season 2006/2007:
V1: 55-2
[A]: 36-21
[b]: 10-11
[C]: 9-2
V2 (excl. V1): 23-0
[A]: 14-9
[b]: 9-0
V3 (excl. V2 and V1): 63-3
[A]: 38-28
[b]: 20-8
[C]: 5-3

Season 2007/2008:
V1: 56-2
[A]: 40-18
[b]: 13-5
[C]: 3-2
V2 (excl. V1): 27-0
[A]: 21-6
[b]: 6-0
V3 (excl. V2 and V1): 63-1
[A]: 36-28
[b]: 12-16
[C]: 15-1

Season 2008/2009:
V1: 61-0
[A]: 39-22
[b]: 16-6
[C]: 6-0
V2 (excl. V1): 29-0
[A]: 19-10
[b]: 8-2
[C]: 2-0
V3 (excl. V2 and V1): 59-1
[A]: 38-22
[b]: 16-6
[C]: 5-1

I’ll try to check some more seasons.

By Krzych78

[Maxi_EV]

Wallco,

I can't find last year thread. Can you point me to a past post where you explained your chase 110 rules please?
Thanks.

[Kev the Brit]

Wallco From what I've been told and my experience last year the plays were recorded the same way I am recording them. A perfect example is if you look at krzychu78's list of losses for V1 last year, you will see Phoenix. Phoenix was not official to JM because Nash was out with an injury, yet we played it anyway. I am recording it the way he did. The only dispute is the ML, whatever the consensus is here, I'll record it accordingly. I am the only one posting a record. I am posting plays with 3 points bought as per rule, and JM Disciple is posting plays with a labby. Seems concise to me, but you started the thread, I can hand over the reigns and I'm sure everyone would be fine with just following your post. I've put up the schedule on pg 3 so it only takes minimal effort to follow to begin with.

This thread is titled "John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread", so I strongly suggest you primarily record the wins/losses as per the latest pdf, so that newbies will not ask unnecessary questions. Of course, there is no reason why we cannot discuss some of the more contentious issues, and perhaps you could display a modified system's stats in the same posts for comparison.

[Bugs Bunny]

So you'll be playing the Bulls' C bet then?

yes ... but on the spread only

well i can accept buying 3 points... but playing ML on favourites of more than 3 points is simply too risky and stupid

[Maxi_EV]

Wallco,

I can't find last year thread. Can you point me to a past post where you explained your chase 110 rules please?
Thanks.

Again please

[Kev the Brit]

Again please

The place to start reading is here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...-nba-p111.html post #3862 then #3891 on the next page.

Hope this helps

Kev

[thelimit0310]

Lawalahmed Stanleys rule turned out to not work. But thanks for the other info