NBA Reverse Line Movement

bauerranch · 12-19-10, 10:27 AM

Hope I catch it in time today
BOL to all

Philphan · 12-19-10, 11:52 AM

Looks like the NBA Play today will be on Indiana.
Will confirm later once all the bets are in.

doublej95 · 12-20-10, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by Philphan

Looks like the NBA Play today will be on Indiana.
Will confirm later once all the bets are in.

Indiana would have been a RLM play today.

JackHorner · 12-20-10, 02:59 AM

A good filter is to use sbrodds in conjuction with sports insights. Reason being is that if you are using SI's free package, you're at a disadvantage with their 30 min delay. One site may show RLM while the other may not. I will play a game if both sites are showing RLM right around gametime. Since implementing this method, I've been able to hit 60.5% of my plays over the last 2 weeks. The only drawback is that you must constantly check line movements throughout the day which isn't too hard if you have a smartphone.

Philphan · 12-20-10, 03:52 PM

thanks jack... Will try that... I've had pretty good luck just using the Pinnacle line movement on Sports Insights

Philphan · 12-20-10, 05:45 PM

Todays Plays:

Miami Heat -7 vs. Dallas
Cleveland Cavs +7 vs. Utah

bauerranch · 12-20-10, 07:36 PM

I believe in College BB you might have ST. JOHNS

Philphan · 12-21-10, 02:55 AM

Originally posted by bauerranch

I believe in College BB you might have ST. JOHNS

Didn't have St. Johns... Although there was 1 point line movement, I only had 48% of the public on St.Johns and there weren't enough total bets placed on the game (only 354 according to Sports Insights)

bauerranch · 12-21-10, 07:17 AM

Thanks for helping me learn more

Philphan · 12-21-10, 05:52 PM

Todays Plays:

NBA
New Jersey Nets +7 @ Memphis

NCAA
UNLV +3.5 vs. Kansas State
UL Lafayette +8 vs. New Mexico State
Stanford +9 vs. Oklahoma State

Philphan · 12-21-10, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by Philphan

Todays Plays:

Miami Heat -7 vs. Dallas LOSS
Cleveland Cavs +7 vs. UtahLOSS

Originally posted by Philphan

Todays Plays:

NBA
New Jersey Nets +7 @ Memphis WIN

NCAA
UNLV +3.5 vs. Kansas State WIN
UL Lafayette +8 vs. New Mexico State WIN
Stanford +9 vs. Oklahoma State LOSS

3-3 Yesterday & Today

bauerranch · 12-22-10, 07:24 AM

Thanks for update since I did not get time to bet or check it yet

Philphan · 12-23-10, 06:02 PM

I was away and missed yesterdays games... No NBA Plays for tonight.

Tonights NCAA Plays:
New Mexico State +9 vs. St.Marys (CA)
St. Peters +9 @ Rutgers

Philphan · 01-04-11, 12:59 AM

Took some time off for the Holidays. I will resume posting plays tomorrow for anyone that is following.
Forgot to post tonight's play I was on Minnesota as the line moved from +9 to +8 with only 29 percent on the T'Wolves

Hexum · 01-04-11, 01:22 AM

Yea please, i been tracking this too

Philphan · 01-04-11, 05:03 PM

Today's Plays:

NBA
Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 @ Miami
Portland Trailblazers +3 @ Dallas
Sacramento Kings +5 vs. Atlanta Hawks

NCAA Basketball
UCONN +4.5 @ Notre Dame
Indiana +9 @ Minnesota

demens · 01-04-11, 05:07 PM

Dallas movement is based on Dirk being officially announced out. Not RLM IMO.

Heat has a good shot at moving back by tip.

Philphan · 01-05-11, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by Philphan

Today's Plays:

NBA
Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 @ Miami LOSS
Portland Trailblazers +3 @ Dallas PUSH
Sacramento Kings +5 vs. Atlanta Hawks LOSS

NCAA Basketball
UCONN +4.5 @ Notre Dame WIN
Indiana +9 @ Minnesota WIN

Note to self: Never bet against the Heat!

Hexum · 01-05-11, 02:30 AM

I think there can be alot of money made in college basketball because there is a bigger gap between teams.

himeshforex · 01-05-11, 10:24 AM

nice thread here philfans , lets play em tonite !!

Philphan · 01-05-11, 06:35 PM

Today's Plays:

NBA
LA Clippers +3 vs. Denver
NCAA
Penn State +7.5 vs. Purdue
Rutgers +4 vs. Marquette
Tennessee -7 vs. Memphis
Harvard +9 @ Boston College (barely)

demens · 01-05-11, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Philphan

Today's Plays:

NBA
LA Clippers +3 vs. Denver
NCAA
Penn State +7.5 vs. Purdue
Rutgers +4 vs. Marquette
Tennessee -7 vs. Memphis
Harvard +9 @ Boston College (barely)

How is Den RLM the line opened at 3.5 and you said your filter is 1 point move.

Philphan · 01-05-11, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by demens

How is Den RLM the line opened at 3.5 and you said your filter is 1 point move.

You are right it is no longer a play. When I posted the plays for tonight the Clippers were actually +2.5 on Pinnacle but +3 at most sportsbooks which is why I posted as +3. Since then it has moved back to +3 on Pinnacle. so it is no longer a play.
No NBA plays for tonight

Philphan · 01-06-11, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Philphan

Today's Plays:

NBA
LA Clippers +3 vs. Denver
NCAA
Penn State +7.5 vs. Purdue LOSS
Rutgers +4 vs. Marquette LOSS
Tennessee -7 vs. Memphis WIN
Harvard +9 @ Boston College WIN

Today's Plays
NBA- None
NCAA
Northwestern +8 @ Illinois
Loyola Marymount +8.5 vs. St. Mary's

demens · 01-06-11, 06:47 PM

Whats the record since you've been tracking? NBa? CBB?

Philphan · 01-07-11, 06:24 PM

0-2 on the NCAA games last night..
Today's Plays:

NBA
Indiana Pacers +5 vs. San Antonio
Houston Rockets +9 @ Orlando

NCAA
Niagara +12 vs. Rider
Youngstown State +14 @ Valparaiso
Evansville +15 @ Missouri State

demens · 01-07-11, 06:37 PM

SA line dipped because people thought Parker was sick and would not play, that has since changed so i wouldn't be surprised if that lines moves back up.

Knicks look like RLM.

Orl has 54% on pregame fyi.

Philphan · 02-12-11, 12:05 AM

Sportsinsights no longer offers a free line tracker so I will continue this thread by using SBR Odds

pittmatt80 · 02-12-11, 12:53 AM

Been following this for about the last two weeks have done really well. Good Luck

PlatinumBerg · 02-12-11, 02:44 AM

RLM definitely has some validity to it. Be smart and pick your spots though.

austintx05 · 02-12-11, 05:25 AM

Originally posted by Philphan

You are right, from now on I will wait until just before the games to make plays. Both of todays lines moved back so they would've been filtered out had I waited

You can't add filters like this or it will never work. If you do this then it will be biased.

You also have to know why the line is going down.

Based on waiting for the closing line is not reasonable cause the last hour the lines are open is like amateur hour in the betting world. That's when all the squares come out. PLus are you gonna wait till tipoff for every game till you bet it? What if 5 min before tipoff the line moves against you and what was once a play is not a play anymore?

Philphan · 02-12-11, 04:36 PM

Looks like todays play is on the New Jersey Nets +3 vs. New York Knicks

austintx05 · 02-12-11, 06:29 PM

amare is out, that's why the line drop.

Philphan · 02-13-11, 02:41 PM

Todays Play is on Golden State -2.5 vs. Oklahoma City

spargament · 02-13-11, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by austintx05

You can't add filters like this or it will never work. If you do this then it will be biased.

You also have to know why the line is going down.

Based on waiting for the closing line is not reasonable cause the last hour the lines are open is like amateur hour in the betting world. That's when all the squares come out. PLus are you gonna wait till tipoff for every game till you bet it? What if 5 min before tipoff the line moves against you and what was once a play is not a play anymore?

Very well put. NBA RLM was much more effective last season than it has been this year IIRC, now the NHL....

But all of the points in bold are definitely important. Part of it boils down to the constant argument about who is sharper between closers and openers; obviously I like the quote believe in openers, or at least early action in the NBA. I strongly believe that last minute moves in hoops as a whole tend to represent the public in a disproportionate fashion (more).