NBA Reverse Line Movement

[Philphan]

I have been following all of the Reverse Line Movement plays in the NBA this season...
So far I have the plays at 20 wins and 7 losses. Usually only one or maybe two plays a night but it has been profitable. I have NCAA plays at 19-10 so far also.
I'm going to start betting these plays and will post the plays in here just to keep track and see what happens.
BOL to everyone!

[forevergrindin]

will be watching

[Philphan]

Today's play:

Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 @ Dallas

[slimpickins]

Definitely worth tracking.
I got burned on RLM on Friday night though with TOR / DEN

major RLM on that game, turned out to be "insider info" about Melo not playing.
Got TOR at a great price and placed a big bet as my book was moving slower than Pinny and the major ones.
Beat my books closing line buy about 4.5 points but in the end TOR lost by 6 and it did not matter.

Not saying you can't profit this way, just giving one example of how this can play out badly.

[Philphan]

It's been doing well for me so far... Whenever you see a line move that much always check for injuries because they can sometimes be the reason for the movement, and at that point I wouldn't play it

[slimpickins]

Yes good advise, and my one example is only 1 example.
What I meant though was the average bettor (u and me) would not have known about Melo not playing until the line already moved signifcantly and could not have sourced this via typical online news sources.
For example I as mentioned beat the closing line by 4.5 points, by the time the injury was known the line moved these 4.5 points.

The RLM was becuase a limited number of people knew this early and likely pounded the line.

[doublej95]

what are you using for standards with RLM? .5 point, 1 point, more than one point? certain percentage say no less than 60/40? I have been watching RLM plays and seemed they have not been doing that good. Spurs game was a RLM game yesterday and it was not even close. Tonight the Dallas game would be a RLM play.

[goldengreek]

definitely worth tracking.
I got burned on rlm on friday night though with tor / den

major rlm on that game, turned out to be "insider info" about melo not playing.
Got tor at a great price and placed a big bet as my book was moving slower than pinny and the major ones.
Beat my books closing line buy about 4.5 points but in the end tor lost by 6 and it did not matter.

Not saying you can't profit this way, just giving one example of how this can play out badly.

that wasnt a rlm...line moved cause carmelo didnt play

[balls2wall]

Like doublej95 said, what are your filters?

thanks in advance for tracking

[Philphan]

Filters:
- At least 1 point of line movement
- At least 55% of bets must be on the opposing team
- At least 2000 bets placed on the game (this really only applies to college because there are usually 10,000+ best placed on all NBA games)

I get all of my data from Sports Insights

[doublej95]

So are you playing Bucks tonight as a RLM play?

[Baller85]

Be careful with the Bucks.. I wouldn't lay any money on them the way they've been playing. They have a good chance of getting blown out depending on if Dallas catches fire at home.

[XxVenomxX]

With you on the Bucks
Will be tailing you, BOL

[doublej95]

With you on the Bucks
Will be tailing you, BOL

nobody said they was on the Bucks. I'm on Dallas myslef as posted in my thread.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

bol

[bauerranch]

Looking good however I was too late- hope to find you again

[Philphan]

Today's play:

Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 @ Dallas

WIN

[Philphan]

Today's plays 12/14/10

Sacramento Kings +9 @ Houston
Minnesota T'Wolves +2.5 @ Golden State

[pattymayo]

if your plays are based on RLM wouldn't now be too early to make a play? Lines could move before tip

[PSABB]

Today's plays 12/14/10 Sacramento Kings +9 @ Houston Minnesota T'Wolves +2.5 @ Golden State

Keep an eye on that Sacramento play...I heard that Evans might be out.

[Philphan]

today's plays 12/14/10

sacramento kings +9 @ houston loss
minnesota t'wolves +2.5 @ golden state

loss

[Philphan]

if your plays are based on RLM wouldn't now be too early to make a play? Lines could move before tip

You are right, from now on I will wait until just before the games to make plays. Both of todays lines moved back so they would've been filtered out had I waited

[bauerranch]

Good idea- please keep posting

[Philphan]

Sports Insights was down today so I couldnt check betting percentages for today's play...
Just for tracking purposes the play would have been
Cleveland Cavs +17 @ Miami

[BigOrangeTitans]

Portland was the best RLM line out there. Cavs may still cover, but anytime you got almost 20 point spread in the pro's the line's goin to get all funky and just look like RLM when really, it was just a bad line

[BigOrangeTitans]

I'll be interested to see how this plays out over a couple hundred plays. RLM in the NBA is usually 55/45 by the end of the season

[Philphan]

Sports Insights was down today so I couldnt check betting percentages for today's play...
Just for tracking purposes the play would have been
Cleveland Cavs +17 @ Miami

WIN

[Philphan]

Portland was the best RLM line out there. Cavs may still cover, but anytime you got almost 20 point spread in the pro's the line's goin to get all funky and just look like RLM when really, it was just a bad line

I had Portland as only a 1/2 point line movement...

[Philphan]

Today's Play:

Minnesota T'Wolves +8 vs. Portland

[Philphan]

Today's Play:

Minnesota T'Wolves +8 vs. Portland

WIN

[whydubya]

anything today?

[Philphan]

Sorry a little bit late..
Today's play:

LA Clippers +8.5 @ Chicago

[Philphan]

Also, the NCAA RLM plays have done very well so far today (5-0 pending Iona-Syracuse). I had Iona, UCLA, Indiana State, Georgia Tech, UCF, and Illinois-Chicago all as plays. I forgot to post them but here are 2 plays for later games:

Oklahoma +6.5 vs. Cincinnati
Loyola Marymount +5.5 vs. Florida State

[Philphan]

Sorry a little bit late..
Today's play:

LA Clippers +8.5 @ Chicago

WIN

[lolbear]

lookin good