nba season picks

jgbgsox · 10-30-10, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by BL

Just got up to notice that Lakers did their job. I went 3-0 yesterday.

NBA Season 9-1 +8,9 units

very solid

BL · 10-30-10, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by mehow

i like spurs and bulls too today

also wash, minny and houston looks nice. Great to see you again on this forum

Originally posted by shoebox

Nice work BL keep it up!

Originally posted by kobefanatic

good job man

thanks guys I hope the sreak continues

Today I am doing something kinda unusual for me, rolling with homefavs only:

Chicago Bulls -9,5 1x
I expect nothing but a big win here for the Bulls against Detroit on the backend.
Big spread but for a good reason.

Spurs -8,5 1x
7-1 ATS at home against NOH. make it 8.

Bucks -5,5 1x
Better team at home against a Bobcats team that shouldn't have to do
too much with the playoffs this year. Both teams started struggling into
the season. Bucks should turn it around right here today.

Rockets -5,5 1x
And another Homefavorite. Rockets are a team to watch this year. Same scenario
like with the Bucks. turnaroundgame against Denver with injuryproblems.

BL · 10-30-10, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by jgbgsox

very solid

thanks for checking my thread, jgbsox! What do u like today?

BL · 10-30-10, 09:49 PM

LOL Chicago just covered

BL · 10-30-10, 10:03 PM

Saturday NBA recap:

Bulls -9,5 won
Spurs -8,5 lost
Rockets -5,5 lost
Bucks -5-5 won

NBA Season 11-3 (78,57%) +8,7 units

BL · 10-31-10, 06:19 AM

short but interesting board today. capping games

BL · 10-31-10, 09:13 AM

I won't have a play on the early game. I may be the only one leaning Nets 1Q lol.

Here's what I booked:

Mavericks/Clippers UNDER 193,5 1x
Dallas on the back2back today what favors the under. Last 6 back2back games for Dallas
went under the total.
I do see Dallas playing some better defense this year. They try to every year but I think
this is the first season it could really work out lol. It won't be easy today against Clippers big men
so I am not picking a side but taking the Under.
If you like trends u may like to hear that the Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles and 20-8 overall
in the last 28 meetings.
The public is all over the over in this one but the line already moved down at some books.

BL · 10-31-10, 10:48 AM

line is moving down. I'd suggest to book it before it goes under 192 if you like the pick

darkenergy · 10-31-10, 10:58 AM

GL today BL.
I'm at work today, not much time to look things over. Initial lean Jazz TT UNDER 97.5, and GS +9.5.............or will looking for your plays to tail.....hahahha.
you do NFL today bro?

darkenergy · 10-31-10, 11:01 AM

I like the UNDER you post above, the only thing I didn't like is both teams are playing at very fast pace......which mean a lot of shootings.

BL · 10-31-10, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by darkenergy

I like the UNDER you post above, the only thing I didn't like is both teams are playing at very fast pace......which mean a lot of shootings.

That's not correct if you look closer. Dallas has only 94.6 posessions per game. this is the 5th fewest in the NBA. Last season they averaged 95.
Clippers average 95.4 posessions per game which is few aswell.
Mavs and Clippers are part of the 15 teams allowing fewest fastbreak points. That helps the under aswell.

darkenergy · 10-31-10, 11:18 AM

I didn't have stats on hand like you. I pull these numbers from basketball-reference site, which I use this primarily to determine most of my total plays.

Dallas
PTS/G: 95.5 (20th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 88.5 (2nd of 30)
SRS: 0.63 (16th of 30) ▪ Pace: 93.2 (24th of 30)
Off Rtg: 102.5 (16th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 95.0 (3rd of 30)
Expected W-L: 1-1 (6th of 30) .

Clippers
PTS/G: 89.5 (29th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 103.5 (21st of 30)
SRS: -5.79 (26th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.5 (26th of 30)
Off Rtg: 96.7 (28th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 111.9 (27th of 30)
Expected W-L: 0-2 (28th of 30) .

As you can see, both of them are playing at fast pace, but UNDER still good because Dallas defense is good, and both teams offensively aren't stellar.
I might end up tailing your play BL..

BL · 10-31-10, 11:23 AM

24th and 26th out of 30 in pace means they are playing a slow pace. Your numbers say they do
only have 92 posessions per game.

darkenergy · 10-31-10, 11:34 AM

You are right, I look at it backward. I remember now Phoenix always rank 1 or 2 last season.
Sorry for my stupidy........this is the second years I start using this, and haven't really memorized everything yet.
GL today BL, out

BL · 10-31-10, 11:46 AM

thanks, to you aswell

sweetjones55 · 10-31-10, 11:54 AM

Good luck on your plays today.

BL · 10-31-10, 02:42 PM

Thanks SJ ! Dallas/Clippers line went down to 190 at some books with still the public on the over.
I may have another play later today so stay tuned. nothing locked in yet for the late games.

BL · 10-31-10, 03:46 PM

2nd Half Dallas/Clippers UNDER 93.5 -105 (1x)

BL · 10-31-10, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by BL

I won't have a play on the early game. I may be the only one leaning Nets 1Q lol. Here's what I booked: Mavericks/Clippers UNDER 193,5 1x Dallas on the back2back today what favors the under. Last 6 back2back games for Dallas went under the total. I do see Dallas playing some better defense this year. They try to every year but I think this is the first season it could really work out lol. It won't be easy today against Clippers big men so I am not picking a side but taking the Under. If you like trends u may like to hear that the Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles and 20-8 overall in the last 28 meetings. The public is all over the over in this one but the line already moved down at some books.

Originally posted by BL

2nd Half Dallas/Clippers UNDER 93.5 -105 (1x)

That makes it 2-0 !

NBA Season 13-3 (81,25%) +10,7 units

BL · 10-31-10, 05:32 PM

thanks for the points!

A really good feeling to start with a hammer into the new season of my favorite sport to cap.
who doesnt know I am releasing all plays on twitter BLdeportes and the writeups and infos about
the pick will be posted in here of course

Salt Empoze · 10-31-10, 05:40 PM

i like gsw -9,5

BL · 10-31-10, 07:35 PM

Thought about this one a long time and I just booked it.
I really like this under. Not much time for a big writeup but the numbers make
it a play.

Lakers/Warriors UNDER 217,5 (1x)

BL · 10-31-10, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by Salt Empoze

i like gsw -9,5

Not sure about a side in this one. wouldn't touch it. Under is all for me.
Good night guys, cya tomorrow hopefully with another winner in the bag

kobefanatic · 10-31-10, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by BL

Thought about this one a long time and I just booked it.
I really like this under. Not much time for a big writeup but the numbers make
it a play.

Lakers/Warriors UNDER 217,5 (1x)

good luck on this play as well

BL · 10-31-10, 08:47 PM

thanks. will be out now and check result tomorrow.

Sdotbold · 11-01-10, 12:54 AM

thanks BL great start tothe season!

linewiz · 11-01-10, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by BL

Thought about this one a long time and I just booked it.
I really like this under. Not much time for a big writeup but the numbers make
it a play.

Lakers/Warriors UNDER 217,5 (1x)

Hey BL. Well done on the under. Great start to your season...congrats on solid analysis and winning picks.

BL · 11-01-10, 04:01 AM

Cash that under

Thanks guys for checking in here!

NBA Season 14-3 (82,35%) +11,7 units

BL · 11-01-10, 05:42 AM

I got an early release for monday night hoopz!

Chicago/Portland UNDER 189,5 1x

There are a lot lines set up too high this early in the season. Portland is 3-0 for the UNDER
so far int he season. But the linemaker didn't adjust the line down like they should have done.
Bulls actual over trend doesn't mean much. Chicagos problem is the offense without Boozer.
The comeback against the Detroit Pis(s)tons did not show the offensive strength in the 4th Q to me.
It showed how big the offensive problems are, regarding to the first 3 quarters.
Chicago usually scores a lot of their points off fastbreaks but it won't be easy against Portland, #4 in allowing fastbreak
points in the league.
If I had to pick a side it would probably be Portland but I don't want to go against the redpants at home
in this spot.
Portland hitting 70% FTs and Bulls 65% so far helps aswell.

BL · 11-01-10, 09:13 AM

189,5 is still available at most books. Some books are moving down the line. Get it before the line hits 188. I don't think the line will hit 187,5 or less with the public on the over but every point counts in this low total region.

BL · 11-01-10, 12:01 PM

that's why I gave out this play early. Under is getting steamed

BL · 11-01-10, 12:54 PM

I have one additional play for today:

1Q SA Spurs -2 1x
I thought a long time about backing the old men today but I decided to not bet the halftime or gamespread and
simply stick to the quarter they have the biggest advantage.
Clippers weekest quarter against Spurs strong Quarter.
H2H Spurs are 6-2 ATS in 1Q against the Clippers.

maddogmadden86 · 11-01-10, 01:00 PM

damn my book has it at 186.5 wish i saw this earlier lol

Sdotbold · 11-01-10, 02:45 PM

under def getting steamed! thanks bl , gl tonight!

aunty jack · 11-01-10, 03:22 PM

ausgezeichnete arbeit!

i've been following your work across the street, but i'm glad to see you posting here too.

cheers.