John Morrison 2010 NBA

[Wilba]

What's unusual is the amount of A bet losses this early in the year. I think he usually hits over 80% of the A bets which would make a good system all by itself. This is my 3rd year betting the NBA system and I've not seen this many A bet losses this close together let alone all the C bets we've had this year. I think it will right itself at some point. Usually there's a lot more winning A bets than any other.

Hi Hagball, it may feel that way but you are badly mistaken. If you bet every A bet since JM sys began, you have lost money. The A bets have hit ~61.5% all time. Even if you get the unusually good odds of -170 for buying 3 points (which not many ppl get! I get -188) you need ~63% just to break even.

This has been discussed in detail, and detailed stats provided. If you look around thread pages 55-60 you can look these stats up. However, I assure you, if you bet every single A bet which comes up, you WILL lose money in the long term

[hagball52]

Hi Hagball, it may feel that way but you are badly mistaken. If you bet every A bet since JM sys began, you have lost money. The A bets have hit ~61.5% all time. Even if you get the unusually good odds of -170 for buying 3 points (which not many ppl get! I get -188) you need ~63% just to break even.

This has been discussed in detail, and detailed stats provided. If you look around thread pages 55-60 you can look these stats up. However, I assure you, if you bet every single A bet which comes up, you WILL lose money in the long term

Thanks for the info. I hadn't really been keeping track of it but I will pay closer attention to the wins and losses. This is the first year I've bet V2 and V3 so when you add them all together I'm sure the results are different. I've bet a little different at times. Last night for example there were 2 A, 1 B and 2 C bets so I teased the 2 C bets and got 6 points instead of 3 and got better odds at like around -125. I was pretty sure both would hit especially with the extra points. As it turned out I didn't need points at all but I risked less to win more. Now I wasn't as lucky with the other bets but I'm still in play with the system and not down any more than if I would have bet them individually. I teased the Lakers with the Clippers and LAC lost the A bet and I teased SAC with CHA and Cha lost the A bet so tomorrow I'll look at the plays and make a call from there. There are more bets in play starting tomorrow. I have a hard time laying -170 to -190 juice. I've done pretty well with the teasers but it's more risky.

[jphil]

WILBA: Is this what ya were asking for?

[J.M. Disciple]

bobcats B bet
Clippers B bet I like it
Pho A bet
Utah A bet... Really like this one

*Remember only to play B bets statistically A bets are losing bets long run. I will be making Utah one of my own bets. Looking to turn a nice profit tomorrow with the system and some of my own bets. Jphil posted my link for those who want to follow or fade.

BOL to every tomorrow.

[jphil]

I didn't say that I would play the ML, just because JFM says I should. My point, along with JM Disciple, is that this discussion is called "John Morrison 2010 NBA", not "John Morrison, when we feel like it, NBA". So, when someone posts a list of plays and doesn't add any caveats, such as, "but I'm not buying 3 pts (against system rules)", or lists a team that has already won a previous bet due to a ML play (as per the current 2010 system as per the discussion title) they will cause confusion.

"We're in agreement then". Certainly the popular opinion among regular contributors, is contrary to the current "John Morrison 2010 NBA" rule, which is that if a team is fav by -3 or more then the system player bets on the ML. So go ahead and ignore the rule and you will invite even more questions. This is not a private club for the knowlegeable people only.

I fully support the principle of free speach and, yes, I think it is a good idea to publicly question JFM's rules and to discuss other ways, compared to his methods, to make money, but that is purely discussion, as against posting unofficial system plays.

Finally, as individuals, we bet on who we like and when we like and that is our private business. I'm not going to bet on the ML just because of something I read on a pdf nor am I going to bet on the spread just because "we're in agreement, then"

Please see attached the current pdf. It should clear the air about the Fav on the ML and the V2/V1 faff over LAL. LAL was Morrison series complete after their game against the Clippers.

Regards
Kev the brick

thanx for the pdf, kev. We now have the updated one. Do you also have the ORIGINAL from 3 yrs. ago? I'm specifically interested to know if ALL or only PART of his statement below, was in that ORIGINAL? (wasn't sure if the 2nd paragraph beginning w/ "NOW", was in the original, or just added in last yrs. update).


"I recommend that you only start betting on a series if the team’s consecutive 3-game road trip begins immediately after their home game. This also means that if a team is on a 6-game road trip vs. 6 opponents from the opposing conference, then you should only wager on the first 3 games (assuming that they played a home game immediately before starting the road trip).
Now, an exception would be that if a team has been playing road game(s) within their own conference before they start 3 consecutive games vs. 3 opponents from the opposing conference, then you should only treat the 3-game series vs. the opposing conference as eligible for play ONLY if that team has lost ALL of its road games from the beginning of the road trip by more than 3 points against the spread.*"

[Wilba]

WILBA: Is this what ya were asking for?

yes, cheers

[dukipl]

Next bets:
v2 Utah [a bet] vs. NOH
v1 Clippers [b bet] vs. Detroit

* LAC are 0-11 on the road this season. Detroit are (-3,5) @ the moment. So it means we play Clippers +6,5. I will wait for a c bet if there will be one, if not than I skip the series.

[Kev the Brit]

krzychu78,
You posted at #1822 and #1824:

BTW, someone asked about V3 backtesting. This is what i have:
2009/2010: 67-2
2008/2009: 59-1
2007/2008: 63-1
2006/2007: 63-3
2005/2006: 63-7
2004/2005: 64-1

V2 was sth. like this:
2009/2010: 28-0
2008/2009: 29-0
2007/2008: 27-0
2006/2007: 23-0
2005/2006: 32-1
2004/2005: 30-2

This is valuable data. Did you collate it yourself or is it from a trusted source?

Many thanks

Kev the Intrigued

[GGPLAYER]

[quote=Wilba;7955045]
Another 2 A bet losses yesterday, on top of that the vast majority of the A bets in the last week have lost also. (if someone checks the season A's to date pls post, I dont have time) If playing A bets has not lost you money already this season, very soon it will have. My gut says that after the 2 losses yesterday, they have either just crossed into the negative, or are just about to very soon. 27-22 is what I come up with. That is starting from 10/13 - 12/15. If you split those 49 plays up in half it started off 16-8. The next 25 have gone 11-14. IMO the books started to adjust to all the dogs winning. Again makes more sense to wait till the "B" bet.

JPHIL: i) the stats are from all version.
ii) yes i play all version, but I play V3 for 1/2, and V2 for 3/4 of what I play V1 for. As an example, if I played V1 to win 4 units, I wold play V2 for 3, and V3 for 2.
I never considered weighing the different versions. Makes sense.

I know many times in this thread the difference between the 3 versions has been scoffed at, and the 'difference' has been said to be non exsistent. Again though, long term stats say otherwise, and long term stats are all I base my decisions on. Long term stats say V1 most reliable, followed by V2 and then V3. However all profitable long term, hence I play all 3 for the appropriate amounts..

Lets keep rolling guys, the system always has at least a few losses every year, here's to hoping we have just got them out of the way early and the rest of the way will be a sweet ride! Could not agree more!


I also have each version with a loss V1-Det, V2-Minny, V3-Clev

If anyone has anything different or finds an error in my work please point it out to me. Thank you

[Wilba]

27-22 is what I come up with. That is starting from 10/13 - 12/15. If you split those 49 plays up in half it started off 16-8. The next 25 have gone 11-14. IMO the books started to adjust to all the dogs winning. Again makes more sense to wait till the "B" bet.

nice one GG, thanks for checking that. So, assuming 27-22 (~55%) for A's is accurate, very obvious that anyone who has played every A has lost considerable money by doing so. At best possible odds of -170, WIN = +27 * (100/170) = ~+15.88 units, LOSS = -22 units, TOTAL = -6.12 units. This means that just to get back to even by playing A's this season, you must win 10 straight. Clearly at the more realistic odds of -180 or -190, you wold be worse off again.

[cmdyrds]

krzychu78,
You posted at #1822 and #1824:This is valuable data. Did you collate it yourself or is it from a trusted source?

Many thanks

Kev the Intrigued

does anyone have v1 "real" totals for the time frames noted?

[Brian891]

Clippers are a tough team to put money on. Go jazz!

[dimon]

LAC should win this game SU

[thebestthereis]

the clippers have set a sportsbook record, 3/4 of the bets are on them today; a feat that will need centuries to attain again. i just had a fukkking heart attack.

[GGPLAYER]

the clippers have set a sportsbook record, 3/4 of the bets are on them today; a feat that will need centuries to attain again. i just had a fukkking heart attack.

Huh??

[thebestthereis]

there was a little sarcasm thrown in there for those who are slow. the clippers are getting 75% of the action today which is down-right mind blowing for anyone that has a clue or is breathing air on earth; the clippers should never be getting any bets ever. whoever is going to the window betting on the clippers needs a brain scan, i am dead serious. i don't care who they are playing in any league and at any level.

[krzychu78]

krzychu78,
You posted at #1822 and #1824:This is valuable data. Did you collate it yourself or is it from a trusted source?

Kev, stats i've provided from years 2004-2008 are results of my own backtesting of the system. Wilba send me stats from 2009 (thanks again Will!). I can't guarantee my calculations are 100% correct but i was trying to be precise.
One more thing: i was using FAV ML filter when i've been testing the system. Since we agreed that flter is useless i should add 5 more losses to those stats.

[krzychu78]

JM's NBA V3 system:
12/17/2010 Charlotte @ Atlanta - V3, B bet
12/17/2010 Phoenix @ Dallas - V3, A bet

V3 record so far (finished series): 19-1
(A): 11-9
(B): 7-2
(C): 1-1

[mitchp]

I know this is a little off content, but I see a number of people mention they are playing the Double Digit Dog. I did a bit of research, and if correct, I came up with the following:

the following is assumed - a unit is $10 and you can get -170 for buying 3 points

2010 (no points bought) +1.9 units (buy 3 points) +5.5
2009 (no points bought) + 14.5 units (buy 3 points) + 22.3
2008 (no points bought) -32 units (buy 3 points) +7.4
2007 (no points bought) -39 units (buy 3 points) -33.4

Interesting that this bet has been inproving year to year, and certainly you must buy the points!

On average there are about 220 games to plays, so we are about a litttle below a quarter of the way through.

[Kev the Brit]

jphil
See below. This was my first ever pdf from JFM (08/09 season)
Kev

[cmdyrds]

guys,

need a little input from others. what do most consider the best site to get up-to-the-minute projected starting lineups for games, and what do most consider the best site for injury updates.

i've been using sportsinsights for injuries and espn for starting lineups but i'm losing faith in espn as most think roy won't play tonight to portland and they have him listed as starting.

thnaks in advance for the input.

btw nice post above mitch.

[GGPLAYER]

there was a little sarcasm thrown in there for those who are slow. the clippers are getting 75% of the action today which is down-right mind blowing for anyone that has a clue or is breathing air on earth; the clippers should never be getting any bets ever. whoever is going to the window betting on the clippers needs a brain scan, i am dead serious. i don't care who they are playing in any league and at any level.

Oh I think there is a lot of sarcasm there in what you just said. I wrote what I did because I have no idea where you see the LA Clippers getting 75% of the action. The LA Lakers are getting around that against the Pistons. Clips are at a 40-60 split with Det.

[GGPLAYER]

guys,

need a little input from others. what do most consider the best site to get up-to-the-minute projected starting lineups for games, and what do most consider the best site for injury updates.

i've been using sportsinsights for injuries and espn for starting lineups but i'm losing faith in espn as most think roy won't play tonight to portland and they have him listed as starting.

thnaks in advance for the input.

btw nice post above mitch.

Roy will miss the next 3 games.

[Wilba]

I know this is a little off content, but I see a number of people mention they are playing the Double Digit Dog. I did a bit of research, and if correct, I came up with the following:

the following is assumed - a unit is $10 and you can get -170 for buying 3 points

2010 (no points bought) +1.9 units (buy 3 points) +5.5
2009 (no points bought) + 14.5 units (buy 3 points) + 22.3
2008 (no points bought) -32 units (buy 3 points) +7.4
2007 (no points bought) -39 units (buy 3 points) -33.4

Interesting that this bet has been inproving year to year, and certainly you must buy the points!

On average there are about 220 games to plays, so we are about a litttle below a quarter of the way through.

Thats great info, many thanks. I had only tested the most recent 2 years which they obviously performed well for, interesting to see that before that they did not perform so well. I now have a hunch about only playing dogs >11.5 spreads, any chance you tracked what the results would be if you removed 10,10.5, and 11 point dogs from that list?

[jphil]

here's some references that newbies, etc., may or may not want. (the original v1 sure was BASIC.)

[jphil]

KEV: thanx for your pdf inputs. Now i know that the "handling road trips that start in-conference" section wasn't in the original version. pts.

KRZYCHU78: thanx for your pdf inputs also. appreciated. pts.

[Wilba]

krzychu78,
You posted at #1822 and #1824:This is valuable data. Did you collate it yourself or is it from a trusted source?

Many thanks

Kev the Intrigued

krzychu78 has made some really valuable contributions to this thread..

[bauerranch]

jphil - great job and now we can refer newbies to your thread number when they ask

[jphil]

jphil - great job and now we can refer newbies to your thread number when they ask

had to pull some strings so to speak, but KEV & K78 came through. So the credit goes to them. My old files were on another computer, so i'm glad they came through for us. I just thought it might be helpful for anyone, & possibly avoid some confusion down the road; unless they're already playing any 3 gm. series of course.

[gordan21]

is john morrison anygood?

[inca1956]

[stevex]

Chicken dinna winna with the Clips tonight. AGAIN not needing to buy the points.

[GGPLAYER]

Congrats to all the "slow" people who bet the Clippers.

[kdavis]

there was a little sarcasm thrown in there for those who are slow. the clippers are getting 75% of the action today which is down-right mind blowing for anyone that has a clue or is breathing air on earth; the clippers should never be getting any bets ever. whoever is going to the window betting on the clippers needs a brain scan, i am dead serious. i don't care who they are playing in any league and at any level.

Glad I got my brain scan.

[stevex]

Stick to the system, make money.