CK/wangichu's Think Tank

jellobiafra · 05-25-09, 11:00 PM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

BOOKED.......2 Game Parlay (5x)

Nuggets -4.5
Nuggets OVER 209

Now I'm off to the game........Denver is going to score at least 211 tonight. That is the only way they can win this one at home.....RUN RUN RUN........Final score 211-99 NUGGETS.........Taco Bell Special.....all tied at 2-2.....Kobe goin home with his tail between his legs..........

DO NOT BET ON THE LAKERS TONIGHT................It IS $$$$ SUICIDE IF YOU DO....

Now I have a tailgate at the Can to attend...........then I am going to watch the Nuggets run tonight.......(something they failed to do on Saturday........and they KNOW it)........

Peace out.....GL to all!

RoagBettor · 05-25-09, 11:02 PM

Finally! 2-0 tonight, Denver 1Q and Denver -4.5. What a rough 2 weeks it has been!

X-Rated · 05-25-09, 11:29 PM

Hey CK and Wangichu, what about Lakers minus anything game 5? They will return the favor after being blown out.

SmackdownV · 05-26-09, 12:15 AM

What A Game!!!!

I wish you guys could have been there! Whoooooooooooo Hoooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!

All in on the CAVS game 4..................ALL IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NBA Hero · 05-26-09, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by RoagBettor

Finally! 2-0 tonight, Denver 1Q and Denver -4.5. What a rough 2 weeks it has been!

good you got two wins. cant stop eh.

BL · 05-26-09, 01:20 AM

nice win yesterday with 1Q and -4,5 !
Today i am leaning the cavy... heavy. Only thing i do not like is the public betting the same...

EDIT: Booked Cleveland -1 ! Let's roll

wangichu · 05-26-09, 03:05 AM

Originally posted by X-Rated

Hey CK and Wangichu, what about Lakers minus anything game 5? They will return the favor after being blown out.

i'll probably go super heavy on the lakers ML. They will win game 5 for sure, especially after falling in blowout fashion in game 4.

NBA Hero · 05-26-09, 09:55 AM

well, either everyone including me wins on cavs or the books get everything.

GL to us guys. we have faith on the king

sweetjones55 · 05-26-09, 10:22 AM

Mo Williams just came out and guranteed that the Cavs win the series. LeBron agreed.

Abrcrom12 · 05-26-09, 10:32 AM

Laid the WOOD on the Cavs PK yesterday.

All hail the king!!!!

BL · 05-26-09, 10:49 AM

King James brings cash tonight

bkny2cnc · 05-26-09, 11:04 AM

Cavs -1 will be the play tonight too much riding on this one

Abrcrom12 · 05-26-09, 11:08 AM

As of now, it's also lookin that I will be takin LA tomorrow pretty heavy at home 1Q, 1H, ATS!
I want to see the 1Q and 1H lines first though.

The Black Mamba is PISSSSSSED!!!!!

Dexter · 05-26-09, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

ok, i had my projected at cleav -1.5. i believe that the public will be on cleav for at least 60%, and if thats the case - and that line stays as is, we all know what the correct play is for game 4

well, the line is doing what it should with a whopping 70% of the public bets on the cavs and the line now up to cleav -1.5

BL · 05-26-09, 11:56 AM

Even more than that. Line moved from +1 to -1.5 ! and it will go to 2 for sure.. when was the last time a line moved 3 or more points ?

BL · 05-26-09, 12:26 PM

ok, here we go:
Reverse line movement on the under!
So i am leaning on playing the under as well

ASH0479 · 05-26-09, 12:27 PM

.....

I am really like the Cavs here....they have to start knocking down open shots sooner or later...

POTVINSUX · 05-26-09, 01:26 PM

I'm on the Cavs-1 as well. I feel Mo, Big Z, and West are definatley going to step it up for gm 4. Also need help from there bench. They will bounce back!

SmackdownV · 05-26-09, 01:56 PM

BIG TIME ON THE CAVS TONIGHT........

Booked Cavs -1.5 (10x)........

That is my only play for today.

Easy play.......I don't see any games with Vegas Books tonight.......Either the Cavs show up or they don't.....This is a MUST WIN GAME.......Long Live The King.......... $1,000.00 to win $952.38....My bank account will be a witness..........

Then tomorrow................time to roll the winnings on the Nuggets!

NBA Hero · 05-26-09, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Mo Williams just came out and guranteed that the Cavs win the series. LeBron agreed.

Cavs' Williams guarantees playoff series win

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/news/story?id=4205686

Cavaliers guard Mo Williams is guaranteeing his team will win the Eastern Conference finals, despite trailing the Magic 2 games to 1 with Game 4 in Orlando.

cs11787 · 05-26-09, 03:42 PM

I think we get free seafood dinners tonight and tomorrow fellas. Cavs will win tonight by about 6 and the Lakers, well, you know what happens when they come off of a loss... I see a double digit win for the Lakers tomorrow.

jellobiafra · 05-26-09, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

BIG TIME ON THE CAVS TONIGHT........

Booked Cavs -1.5 (10x)........

That is my only play for today.

Easy play.......I don't see any games with Vegas Books tonight.......Either the Cavs show up or they don't.....This is a MUST WIN GAME.......Long Live The King.......... $1,000.00 to win $952.38....My bank account will be a witness..........

Then tomorrow................time to roll the winnings on the Nuggets!

Come on Smack. I love your style man... but don't blow your money on the Nuggets tomorrow. If you really believe in them to win, just lay off and take the game in as a fan. They are the wrong play tomorrow, and I think even you in your heart know it.

SmackdownV · 05-26-09, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Come on Smack. I love your style man... but don't blow your money on the Nuggets tomorrow. If you really believe in them to win, just lay off and take the game in as a fan. They are the wrong play tomorrow, and I think even you in your heart know it.

OK jello.....

I'll take in the Cavs tonight and think long and hard about the Nuggets tomorrow........

The way I see it......

Cavs/Nuggets in the Finals......Melo/Lebron......(still good TV)

BL · 05-26-09, 04:35 PM

My final Picks for today:

Cleveland -1 HEAVY
UNDER 188

Good Luck tonight!

cockblocker · 05-26-09, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Sure, BL,

just look up what historically happens in the first halves of games between these two teams regardless of the venue prior to the first three games of this series. What you will find is that the Lakers were killing Denver in first halves prior to this three game 1st half winning streak for Denver. So once you have those numbers in your hand ask yourself, "Is it likely that Denver will extend the streak to four straight first half covers, or would the Lakers stop underperforming early and snap the 3 game streak of losing first halves. The Lakers are one of those teams that when they sense an opportunity, they go for the neck. I think that Denver backers may be alright for the game, but they are in a bad position to continue covering against the Lakers in the 1st halves given the historical findgs. Denver is just in over their head and getting too much love for one victory out of 13....

You should realize that this is a different Nuggets team than the one they had that streak against.

Vreston · 05-26-09, 05:29 PM

It seems the books want us to bet Orlando.
Orlando has Cleveland's number. They are +105 at home and they are ahead in the series! Makes you wanna say let me double my money and then some and take Orlando. Maybe that's why Cleveland is the call here @ -125 SU.
It's a really tough one to call.

X-Rated · 05-26-09, 05:47 PM

I am not taking either team tonight. Like last night I will not bet and instead just watch both teams play tonight. Cleveland wants to even up the series but Orlando is at home and they are a stronger team than the Cavs. Tomorrow should be good: Lakers -6

chipper13101 · 05-26-09, 05:48 PM

The way I see it, it's the same deal as the Celtics coming back to win Game 4 in Orlando on May 10th. Celtics were down 2-1 in games, and CK called the Celtics win perfectly to tie it at 2-2. Cavs will prevail in a close one tonite.

X-Rated · 05-26-09, 05:51 PM

The Cavs line moved from +1 to -1.5. I heard from someone that if the line moved over 3 points then that game should be faded?

BigMoneyMan · 05-26-09, 06:42 PM

Orlando wins again. All the NBA has to do is keep playing those puppet commercial and the books treat as you as such. I what universe do you Cav fans live in. This is a TEAM sport. This year wins by 11, 30 and 10. What has changed? NOTHING. I posted this before and no one listened so here is some more to chew on.

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Orlando.
Underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Orlando.

Got to run I am last to watch another beatdown.

wangichu · 05-26-09, 06:54 PM

i'm having a hard time ignoring the magic being in the minority in this game, so i'm going to play cavs ML medium, and run a small hedge parlay on ORL +4.5/LAL -1.5

reasons i have to play the cavs:

-don't think they'll be as bad as they were last game, especially with the possibility that lebron could go ape s***.
-line came out 1 point lower than it was prior to last game
-line moved by 2.5 points in cleveland's favor
-if it was any team other than the cavs, instead of line movement, the public would have conceeded this series to the magic and jumped on their backs for this play, in which case the cavs would be the sharp play here, so i'm chalking it up to something more like coincidence if the public hits... also, i wouldn't be surprised to see the cavs win by 1 which would neutralize a lot of the money to be made by the public on them.

ultimately, i am playing the spread more than the matchup which can be dangerous, but for my money is a better bet in the playoffs.

plus, i have the magic at +500 to win this series, so even if i lose a small bet on cleveland, between my parlay and the series price, CLE ML here is almost like a hedge.

sweetjones55 · 05-26-09, 06:55 PM

Player prop for LeBron is 35.5 points at -125. He should have a big game today again.

jellobiafra · 05-26-09, 06:56 PM

Smack, it's not even that you couldn't be right about the Nuggets. Maybe they are the right call tomorrow. I just know how you roll and you might end up loading up on them when that's a risky play. I just don't wanna see your exuberance cost you. You're making good money right now and are on fire from what I can tell.

If you like the bet, just be careful on this one. I don't think the Nuggets are a heavy bet under any circumstance tomorrow. If you like them, I would suggest a nice easy wager.

Just my 2 cents.

GGPLAYER · 05-26-09, 06:57 PM

What about just taking Clev -1 in the 1st half? Orl does not seem to really turn it on until 3rd/ 4th quarter.

Heavy public on the Over and the line is coming down....have to take the under, right?

coolmil · 05-26-09, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by BigMoneyMan

Orlando wins again. All the NBA has to do is keep playing those puppet commercial and the books treat as you as such. I what universe do you Cav fans live in. This is a TEAM sport. This year wins by 11, 30 and 10. What has changed? NOTHING. I posted this before and no one listened so here is some more to chew on.

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Orlando.
Underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Orlando.

Got to run I am last to watch another beatdown.

The media is making this line very favorable for Orlando betters!
Orlando will deliver a knock out blow tonight.