CK/wangichu's Think Tank

[X-Rated]

I like the UNDER as well. In their previous game both teams tighten their defense in the 2nd half and it went UNDER. Since they are shifting to a different city, I think the UNDER is the correct call.

Cle/ORL 190UNDER

[Dexter]

magic -1.5 (3x)

[jellobiafra]

Cleveland - ML

[Abrcrom12]

Tonight's game a trap?

With OR at home, the -1.5 seems too much of a trap

I do have a decent bet on the OR 1H though.

[cs11787]

Tonight's game a trap?

With OR at home, the -1.5 seems too much of a trap

I do have a decent bet on the OR 1H though.

This is what a lot of people think and when I first started betting I believed in traps but I dont anymore. As we all think to ourselves that we are figuring the books out, the books are figuring us out also. Bet with what you think is the right play, not by whether or not you think its a trap or not. Afterall, the books could be saying, "If we set the line to -1.5, everyone will think its a trap and take Cleveland".

[cs11787]

Actually now that I think about it, Orlando is showing dominance ATS wise here in the playoffs just as they did in the regular season. They are 12-1 ATS now against Cleveland with Orlandos last three home wins being of an average of 14.7 points. I think if it werent for the horrible 1st halves Orlando played in the first two games they shouldve have won both games by almost double digits. And of course that buzzer three by Lebron was nasty. Orlando didnt shoot freethrows particularly well last game and they still kept up. The shots should could continue to fall for Orlando at home and I doubt that they will be behind double digits in the 1Q and 1H at home this time around. Orlando seemed to have been the sleeper team of the playoffs and the Cavaliers should be very worried. Cavs wont have a chance to be up 23 in this game and even if they do the Magic have shown that it doesnt matter. The Magic had a measly 28 points in the paint compared to Cavs 44. I think that should change tonight as I think Dwight will triple the points he had last game.
Leaning Orl ML

[BL]

Cleveland-Orlando UNDEr 189,5 HEAAAAAAVY
I like the under but after reverse line movement at its best i really love it !
>70% on the OVER and line moving down to 189 now!

[kmarinouofm]

wait you said 70% is on the under and the line moved down..and you love it because it's reverse line movement? If 70% is on the under.. of course the line is going to go down... my local has it at 190...

Cleveland-Orlando UNDEr 189,5 HEAAAAAAVY
I like the over but after reverse line movement at its best i really love it !
>70% on the under and line moving down to 189 now!

[cockblocker]

This is what a lot of people think and when I first started betting I believed in traps but I dont anymore. As we all think to ourselves that we are figuring the books out, the books are figuring us out also. Bet with what you think is the right play, not by whether or not you think its a trap or not. Afterall, the books could be saying, "If we set the line to -1.5, everyone will think its a trap and take Cleveland".

Cleveland is the real trap. They go from a 9 pt favorite at home to a 1.5 pt dog on the rd. When have you ever seen home court worth an 11 pt swing? The Cavs should be favored by at least 3 tonite. Books are telling you the Magic win this game.

[kmarinouofm]

actually the books are telling you the cavs win... cavs put up a 9 pt spread two games in a row and don't cover...Orlando wins outright game 1, then the magic loose a buzzer beater game 2...In my book the Magic should be an at least 3 or 4 pt favorite at home coming off that win , loss....Since they are only -1.5... Vegas doesn't want to give any more points to Cleveland then they have to, but the home team in this matchup is going to be laying pts no matter what the score is series wise...

SO magic open up at -2... public rightfully so has moved it to -1.5...

I think the solid play is find a book that still has the Cavs + 2pts.. and play a teaser Cavs +6 , under 194

Cleveland is the real trap. They go from a 9 pt favorite at home to a 1.5 pt dog on the rd. When have you ever seen home court worth an 11 pt swing? The Cavs should be favored by at least 3 tonite. Books are telling you the Magic win this game.

[BL]

wait you said 70% is on the under and the line moved down..and you love it because it's reverse line movement? If 70% is on the under.. of course the line is going to go down... my local has it at 190...

Sorry, 70% on the OVER !
so we got a reverse line movement :-)

[suckatmyjob]

everything is a trap the hardest thing is trying to find it so f it

first 2 games denver cover and 3rd game they lose
first 2 games orlando cover so if trend is same then orlando will lose today clev ML or 1.5

books trying to trap us? hmm seems like those that win 1st q and 1st half does not win or cover the game like lakers and cleveland first 2 games so it makes since 1h and 1q tonight Orlando takes it and Cle takes whole game -

[X-Rated]

One rule, bet on the Magic or never bet against the Magic.

[RoagBettor]

I'll probably do a small 2 team/5 pt teaser under 194/Magic +3.5

[X-Rated]

One thing that makes me hate to take the UNDER is if Lebron Keeps attacking the basket and almost every attempt he gets foul call.

[RoagBettor]

One thing that makes me hate to take the UNDER is if Lebron Keeps attacking the basket and almost every attempt he gets foul call.

Yep, all those foul calls have killed a lot of unders so far in the playoffs. But this series isn't as nasty (yet) as some of the others, so maybe the refs will let them play.

I might just pick out of a hat tonight.

[cocknocker]

Whew! It doesn't get any closer than that!

[Rydawg]

Gortat can't make 1 free throw? come on now

[cs11787]

Wow the way Cleveland came back, I gotta take them +.5 second half. Cleveland wins this then Orlando wins game 4. What you guys think?

[Dexter]

mon 5/25-

under nuggets 209 (3x) - last 5 laker @ nugget games have avg'd 193ppg

[Dexter]

the whole world is going to be on the cavs in game 4. i'll take the magic at home again in a line that will prob be +2

Game 4: magic (3x)

[X-Rated]

Congrats to all Orlando backers. Dexter, I think game 4 might have Orlando at -4 or something. If thats the case then possibly Cavs can cover.

[SexyMit]

Cleveland will come out favored! And then everyone will be on Magic and Cleveland will make them look bad!

[Dexter]

Congrats to all Orlando backers. Dexter, I think game 4 might have Orlando at -4 or something. If thats the case then possibly Cavs can cover.

i dont see that. i really think the cavs will be favored in this must win situation. i seriously think the magic go up 3-1, then the cavs come back to win the series. sort of a memorable journey for lebrons first ring.

Projected Line Game 4: Cavs -1.5

[cockblocker]

Congrats to all Orlando backers. Dexter, I think game 4 might have Orlando at -4 or something. If thats the case then possibly Cavs can cover.

This a must win for the Cavs. Do you seriously think Vegas is going to be giving them any points? Cavs -1 or 2.

[Dexter]

Cleveland will come out favored! And then everyone will be on Magic and Cleveland will make them look bad!

you see the public being on the magic (up 2-1) in game 4? i dont at all. regardless of what the line is.

i bet the public is 60/40 at least on cleav in game 4

[cockblocker]

Cleveland will come out favored! And then everyone will be on Magic and Cleveland will make them look bad!

Why would anyone be on the Magic in a must win game for the Cavs?

[Dexter]

Why would anyone be on the Magic in a must win game for the Cavs?

agreed - the public will be all over cleav in game 4, but im taking orlando again.

[suicidekings]

And the line comes out at Magic -1, 188.5. Interesting...

This has become a situation where Lebron has to be lights out and provide a late-game miracle for the Cavs to have a chance of winning the game. Gotta roll with the Magic in Game 4 as well.

[suicidekings]

Lakers (+175) @ Nuggets, 2u
Lakers/Nuggets, Under 208.5 (-105), 3u

I feel pretty good about this under, however I wish I had bought in earlier. The ML is just too much to ignore at +175, and as this is a critical game, it's a good spot to hedge my Denver Western Conference pick.

[djpremier36]

agreed - the public will be all over cleav in game 4, but im taking orlando again.

I'm not sure about the public being on CLE for sure. CLE will be coming off a 10 point loss and a tough split at home...so the public perception should be ORL, IMO, being that they are up 2-1 in the series, at home and only laying a point or two.

CLE shot awful the WHOLE game and still had a chance late in the game before LBJ's two free throw misses...I really, really can't see CLE shooting that bad again.

Opening Line for game 3 CLE/ORL:ORL -1

GL

[Jerry Seinfeld]

Lakers (+175) @ Nuggets, 2u
Lakers/Nuggets, Under 208.5 (-105), 3u

I feel pretty good about this under, however I wish I had bought in earlier. The ML is just too much to ignore at +175, and as this is a critical game, it's a good spot to hedge my Denver Western Conference pick.

Yeah +175 is too good a value to pass up here.

[BL]

Cleveland-Orlando UNDER 189,5 HEAAAAAAVY
I like the under but after reverse line movement at its best i really love it !
>70% on the OVER and line moving down to 189 now!

After cashing my heavy pick yesterday (uuum damn close) leaning Denver -4,5 and the under so far.

[Bayno82]

Nuggs

Am going big on Nuggets first half tommorrow -2.5 Anyone with me? i Expect them to come out firing after been ridiculed for losing game 3

[wangichu]

Cleveland will come out favored! And then everyone will be on Magic and Cleveland will make them look bad!

didn't really think they'd feel the need to favor cleveland considering the magic's success against them, but otherwise, i'm definitely with you on the rest. Public is starting to feel like the magic are just too much for the cavs, but as far as i am concerned, i have the day off, so i will be witness.

CAVS ML