CK/wangichu's Think Tank

[wangichu]

Lakers (+175) @ Nuggets, 2u
Lakers/Nuggets, Under 208.5 (-105), 3u

I feel pretty good about this under, however I wish I had bought in earlier. The ML is just too much to ignore at +175, and as this is a critical game, it's a good spot to hedge my Denver Western Conference pick.

money wise it's the ideal returns you want, but it's not the time to fade the nuggets. they can handle the lakers and will be fired up to do so, while the lakers are due for an off night.

I'm on DEN ML here. feel very confident in denver winning and i'm seeing something in the range of 8-10, but in a close series, i'm happy paying a little extra to only need a win. Good luck on the under though, i think the nuggets will score over 100, but they could slow the lakers up into a hit on that under.

[Dexter]

And the line comes out at Magic -1, 188.5. Interesting...

This has become a situation where Lebron has to be lights out and provide a late-game miracle for the Cavs to have a chance of winning the game. Gotta roll with the Magic in Game 4 as well.

ok, i had my projected at cleav -1.5. i believe that the public will be on cleav for at least 60%, and if thats the case - and that line stays as is, we all know what the correct play is for game 4

[bkny2cnc]

I don't think L.A will have enough to score 100pts ,the air in Denver (and a little defense)should keep this one under.

[suicidekings]

money wise it's the ideal returns you want, but it's not the time to fade the nuggets. they can handle the lakers and will be fired up to do so, while the lakers are due for an off night.

I'm on DEN ML here. feel very confident in denver winning and i'm seeing something in the range of 8-10, but in a close series, i'm happy paying a little extra to only need a win. Good luck on the under though, i think the nuggets will score over 100, but they could slow the lakers up into a hit on that under.

The Laker ML will only account for a small portion of my total bets on the game, with the bulk of it coming from quarter and half lines. Denver 1Q seems like the smart move, and then play it by ear.

[BL]

my picks for today:

Denver 1Q -1,5 POD
Denver -4,5
UNDER 209

Denver 1Q looks very nice. Denver will start furious in this game and cover 1Q easily. Denver -4,5 is a must play for me. Line Movement and Lakers at the perfect letdown situation. Further Must-Win-Situation for the Nuggets
The Under 209 should be the pick on the totals. Reverse Line movement and if you need more insurance:
Last 5 Games in Denver:

24/05/2009 97:103
28/02/2009 90:79
02/11/2008 97:104
29/04/2008 101:107
26/04/2008 84:102

Good Luck !!

[cocknocker]

Lakers 1st half Game 4 (They won't continue losing these 1st halves to Denver in this series)

Cavs (PK) Game 4 HEAVY (The Cavs are good to take for games 4 and 5)


There are some really bad numbers assigned to teams that have covered against another team 8 or more times with the last cover being a win by double digits. If Grumpy's search engine is correct, then the Cavs will win by more than 6 in both games.

[BL]

Lakers 1st half Game 4 (They won't continue losing these 1st halves to Denver in this series)

Cavs (PK) Game 4 HEAVY (The Cavs are good to take for games 4 and 5)

Hey CK!
I like the Cavs tomorrow as well! And we already got a early reverse line movement. Looks liek a great opportunity to make some money.

But why do you like Lakers 1H ??
First of all -> Lakers are the public bet. And to be honest i do not see the Lakers getting a shot in this game. Nuggets in a must-win situation and they already showed they know how to handle Kobe&Company. Ok, if there will be a weak quarter for the nuggets it will be Q2.. but i don't see the Lakers cover 1H even with a winning 2Q.
You got more reasons to pick LA 1H but "the won't continue losing these 1st halfes" ?

[cocknocker]

Sure, BL,

just look up what historically happens in the first halves of games between these two teams regardless of the venue prior to the first three games of this series. What you will find is that the Lakers were killing Denver in first halves prior to this three game 1st half winning streak for Denver. So once you have those numbers in your hand ask yourself, "Is it likely that Denver will extend the streak to four straight first half covers, or would the Lakers stop underperforming early and snap the 3 game streak of losing first halves. The Lakers are one of those teams that when they sense an opportunity, they go for the neck. I think that Denver backers may be alright for the game, but they are in a bad position to continue covering against the Lakers in the 1st halves given the historical findgs. Denver is just in over their head and getting too much love for one victory out of 13....

[BL]

Thanks for your quick answer and yep, i understand your thinking. I do see the Lakers covering the 1st Half in the upcoming matches but not tonight. I like to compare the game today with Game4 and a bit with game6 of the Rockets-Series where Houston covered both 1st Halfes with >15 each. Well, if you do not see a letdown by the Lakers tonight (like i do) Lakers 1H is the right play. But for me the first Quarter tonight is the place where amazing happens. And because of that Lakers won't cover.

Excuse me for english far away from being perfect,... European... you know xD

[cocknocker]

How is this thread still open when the contest was over so long ago?

[kmarinouofm]

because people miss you in basketball.. this is their way of holding on homie...

How is this thread still open when the contest was over so long ago?

[HoulihansTX]

Lakers ML

[cocknocker]

HoulihansTX wants the money too obviously...

The Lakers own the Nuggets and have gotten into their heads with that last victory. This Denver and Lakers series is like encountering the girl you used to drill. You see her out and about one time and she claims to have a boyfriend, here's my number we can be regular friends and just hang out from time to time, blah, blah, blah. Then you see her the next time when she's intoxicated and she remembers that old wood and gives in like she's supposed to. And then before you know it, she's reliable late night tweek material again. Just like nothin ever happened...

One victory shouldn't have gotten that much press to begin with. To me it just looked like old times.

[HoulihansTX]

HoulihansTX wants the money too obviously...

The Lakers own the Nuggets and have gotten into their heads with that last victory. This Denver and Lakers series is like encountering the girl you used to drill. You see her out and about one time and she claims to have a boyfriend, here's my number we can be regular friends and just hang out from time to time, blah, blah, blah. Then you see her the next time when she's intoxicated and she remembers that old wood and gives in like she's supposed to. And then before you know it, she's reliable late night tweek material again. Just like nothin ever happened...

One victory shouldn't have gotten that much press to begin with. To me it just looked like old times.

WOW, I just almost shit my pants laughing at this post. Stop Ck, Stop CK. HaHaHa.

[jellobiafra]

HoulihansTX wants the money too obviously...

The Lakers own the Nuggets and have gotten into their heads with that last victory. This Denver and Lakers series is like encountering the girl you used to drill. You see her out and about one time and she claims to have a boyfriend, here's my number we can be regular friends and just hang out from time to time, blah, blah, blah. Then you see her the next time when she's intoxicated and she remembers that old wood and gives in like she's supposed to. And then before you know it, she's reliable late night tweek material again. Just like nothin ever happened...

One victory shouldn't have gotten that much press to begin with. To me it just looked like old times.

[djpremier36]

Cavs (PK) Game 4 HEAVY (The Cavs are good to take for games 4 and 5)


There are some really bad numbers assigned to teams that have covered against another team 8 or more times with the last cover being a win by double digits. If Grumpy's search engine is correct, then the Cavs will win by more than 6 in both games.

Nice to see you going HEAVY on CLE for game 4...the line has already moved two points in CLE's favor from +1 to -1 in some books as I type right now.

What do you think about buying DEN down to -2?

[HoulihansTX]

the whole world is going to be on the cavs in game 4. i'll take the magic at home again in a line that will prob be +2

Game 4: magic (3x)

Get some of that 188.5OVER also

[cocknocker]

Nice to see you going HEAVY on CLE for game 4...the line has already moved two points in CLE's favor from +1 to -1 in some books as I type right now.

What do you think about buying DEN down to -2?

I would not suggest a play on the Nuggets. The Lakers are nothing if not dramatic

[shoebox]

http://www.yougotdunkedon.com

Have fun!

[cocknocker]

What's up shoe? You disappeared on me.

[shoebox]

What's up shoe? You disappeared on me.

buddies wife was cheating, went off to the lake to clear his head in a nutshell. Im here homie all is good brother....

[wangichu]

-spread would not have been set at DEN -4 if the nuggets weren't going to cover it.

-The nuggets struggled down the stretch where as the lakers executed
- lakers got the game they came for and have been very on again off again in this seres.

- nuggets have been in control of every game for at least a while if not most of it (ie games 1 and 3) and showed in game 2 that they have the fortitude and determination of winners and chauncey and melo should be there for the team at crunch time this go around.

- my favorite: reverse line movement. spread opened up right where it did last time (-4) and with the public on the lakers, it moved up to +4.5 for them as if the books where just telling the public to pound that spread and the public followed like the mice behind the pied piper.

few extra points:

-lakers are 1-6 ATS when holding a series lead in the playoffs this year, with that 1 coming in utah game 4.

-prior to saturday, the last time the nuggets were held under 100 points at home was march 9th, against the rockets.
-in that time, they have only been held under 100 2 times not including saturday.

DEN ML

denver wins this game, and i think by 10, i just don't like messing around lakers and extra points.

[wangichu]

for the record, i think the lakers will take the 1Q, and maybe the first half. Q1 has alternated from team to team, with the nuggets covering games 1 and 3, and lakers covering game 2, and still the previous 11 prior to this series. I may make a small play on the lakers 1Q ML

[Smogs]

Worth a dabble on the double result, Lakers 1H - Nuggets 2H. You can get 5/1

[Vreston]

I would not suggest a play on the Nuggets. The Lakers are nothing if not dramatic

You mean you don't suggest a play on the Nuggets -4.5? or even the ML?

These two series have really mixed me up and I don't have the confidence on my bets like I used to up to now. The last 10 days have really eaten away at the winnings I slowly made. I'm almost at my own money again. Baseball especially screwed me up. Seems like this has happened to a lot of people too.

By the way, I thought you were going on vacation guy!
Maybe you should get a small challenge going while you're still here. (Just kidding )

Oh and the reason people are still reading and contributing to this thread is probably because it helped people make a lot of money while the challenge was going (which unfortunately has been going back to the books lately) and they don't want to let go.

[SmackdownV]

BOOKED.......2 Game Parlay (5x)

Nuggets -4.5
Nuggets OVER 209

Now I'm off to the game........Denver is going to score at least 211 tonight. That is the only way they can win this one at home.....RUN RUN RUN........Final score 211-99 NUGGETS.........Taco Bell Special.....all tied at 2-2.....Kobe goin home with his tail between his legs..........

DO NOT BET ON THE LAKERS TONIGHT................It IS $$$$ SUICIDE IF YOU DO....

Now I have a tailgate at the Can to attend...........then I am going to watch the Nuggets run tonight.......(something they failed to do on Saturday........and they KNOW it)........

Peace out.....GL to all!

[SmackdownV]

Just wanted to say it one more time so you get it:

DO NOT BET ON THE LAKERS TONIGHT................It IS $$$$ SUICIDE IF YOU DO....

Now I'm off to the Pepsi Center to watch the Lakers "Give This Game Away".........

[Dexter]

so, the cavs have moved to a favorite as i had anticiapated - though the % of public bets is split down the middle right now per the spread.com - curious to see how that shakes out, as i still feel like the cavs will get the most bets made.

sucks to see ck on the cavs, but i made up my mind on orlando for this one.

[Dexter]

HoulihansTX wants the money too obviously...

The Lakers own the Nuggets and have gotten into their heads with that last victory. This Denver and Lakers series is like encountering the girl you used to drill. You see her out and about one time and she claims to have a boyfriend, here's my number we can be regular friends and just hang out from time to time, blah, blah, blah. Then you see her the next time when she's intoxicated and she remembers that old wood and gives in like she's supposed to. And then before you know it, she's reliable late night tweek material again. Just like nothin ever happened...

One victory shouldn't have gotten that much press to begin with. To me it just looked like old times.

classic cocknocker...hilarious

[chipper13101]

buddies wife was cheating, went off to the lake to clear his head in a nutshell. Im here homie all is good brother....

happens all the time, especially if she's hot or has the massive mams. Heck, as long as she's cheating you might as well get some too...

[danrman]

nuggets are the play

[suicidekings]

Now, I'm not a Lakers fan in general, but I just feel like the Lakers have Denver's number in this series... Halfway through the conference final, you're not going to see the lax play that can sometimes be synonymous with the Lakers.. They know they're only 2 wins away from the NBA Final and they'll bring their A-game defence tonight.

Booked Plays
- 1Q Denver -1.5 (-115)
- Lakers ML (+175)
- Lakers/Nuggets - Under 208.5 (-105)

Parlays/Teasers
- Teaser - Lakers +9.5, Lakers/Nuggets Under 213.5, Cavs/Magic Gm4 Over 183.5 (+165)
- Parlay - Lakers/Nuggets Under 208.5, Cavs/Magic Gm4 Over 188.5 (+264)
- Pleaser - Lakers -1.5, Magic Gm4 -7 (+600), (just for fun)
- Waiting on the Lakers +9.5 part of a 3 team teaser from last night (+165)

Props
- Kobe Bryant Over 9.5 FTs (+100)

[shoebox]

go nuggs
go under

[Dexter]

omg - the birdman with a sick block off the glass!!

[melincrea]

Lakers 1st half Game 4 (They won't continue losing these 1st halves to Denver in this series)

Not looking good