2015/16 NBA Thread

[NBA Maniac]

Knew line movement wasn't right

I concern when the line moovement goes against me, take a look to the Indiana line.
I booked yesterday (PK), and line mooved against me, closing at +1.5

[Seto]

So Charlotte drew up a 30-footer in the huddle? Really?

I'm actually not joking when I say they've had ONE good offensive possession in the last 8 minutes of the game where Lin got a layup.

And despite all that nonsense, they would've won the game but for 2 atrocious calls.

Unreal.

[RavensFan2k3]

I concern when the line moovement goes against me, take a look to the Indiana line.
I booked yesterday (PK), and line mooved against me, closing at +1.5

Well I was concerned about this line, and my concern was right. The movement was not only too much, but more importantly unwarranted.

[Seto]

Yesterday: 0-5, -5.4x
Total: 37-60-2, -27.84x

[t-wizzle]

Jazz tonight bro.

[greally311]

No plays last several days? Anything look promising tonight?

[Seto]

Blazers+10.5 -110 (bet365) (risking 2.2x to win 2x)

[KRIT]

Blazers+10.5 -110 (bet365) (risking 2.2x to win 2x)

Like it, OKC in the look ahead spot. I expect a 5-7 point victory for OKC.

Have you paid much attention to teams coming off the long roadtrips? Both GS and Clipps coming off long roadtrips. Even without the roadies I was already leaning Suns and Bucks.

[Seto]

Like it, OKC in the look ahead spot. I expect a 5-7 point victory for OKC.

Have you paid much attention to teams coming off the long roadtrips? Both GS and Clipps coming off long roadtrips. Even without the roadies I was already leaning Suns and Bucks.

Yeah exactly playing the lookahead spot and Portland have proven to be at least competitive in most games.

The only thing I really feel strongly about with road trips is fading average or bad teams coming off a successful road trip in their first game back home. Most recent example is Cleveland thumping the Magic coming off their 3-2 West Coast swing. I was really silly not to play that one.

Not sure about those 2 games tonight. Bucks and Suns both really suck on the road. I guess in theory I'd say both those games could be close but with Golden State at home for instance... You're never safe. I remember taking Dallas with a double digit spread against them last year, they went up by 20 early and still lost by 15.

[Seto]

Today: 0-1, -2.2x
Total: 37-61-2, -30.04x

Truly unbelievable how badly I suck right now. I've had bad runs in my life but they've always been quick, like a few days or at most a week where I can't seem to get anything going.

This shit has been going on for nearly a month now though. That hasn't happened to me for like 3 years. It's kinda really very frustrating but I guess I gotta just keep trying and eventually it'll come right.

[oldscho0led]

Seto, keep yo head up. You know you'll turn this around.

[Seto]

Seto, keep yo head up. You know you'll turn this around.

Yeah, I hope so man. Trying to figure out what works until I get my rhythm back. It's funny because I always say the one thing I don't understand about professional athletes is how they can lose confidence in themselves or lose their rhythm after being so good at something for so long. Kinda going through that right now, I'm a bit unsure of what I need to do to break the run. I've tried to be extra careful and selective with my games, that hasn't worked, I've tried to play mostly live, that's had mixed results but overall hasn't been very good to me either, so I'm kind of confused as to what I'm doing day to day. I just know that when I start winning again and getting a good feel for things again the plays will just come to me naturally day by day and I won't have to overthink or hesitate on anything anymore. Funny how it works.

[killersweet]

Today: 0-1, -2.2x
Total: 37-61-2, -30.04x

Truly unbelievable how badly I suck right now. I've had bad runs in my life but they've always been quick, like a few days or at most a week where I can't seem to get anything going.

This shit has been going on for nearly a month now though. That hasn't happened to me for like 3 years. It's kinda really very frustrating but I guess I gotta just keep trying and eventually it'll come right.

Chip up man. Rough times will pass. Keep grinding. The hot streak will come thru.

[t-wizzle]

Been cold too man. It'll turn around.

Any thoughts on Thunder/Cavs tonight? I think OKC wins. They are playing really well right now.

[DOM-Ganador]

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays Seto.

Don`t be a quitter, get back in the game.

[Seto]

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays Seto.

Don`t be a quitter, get back in the game.

Ha I'm not a quitter man don't worry. Can guarantee you I'll never ever quit gambling.

Happy holidays to you too

[Seto]

Bulls-3 -110 (bet365) (risking 2.2x to win 2x)
Nets ml +270 (betvictor) (risking 0.5x to win 1.35x)

[italianbandit]

Hey Seto. Happy New Year. What do you think of Dallas +6 tonight ? I like them.

[Seto]

Hey Seto. Happy New Year. What do you think of Dallas +6 tonight ? I like them.

happy new year in advance i guess

I'm not sure how we deal with this whole Curry out thing. Line has moved 4.5 points from the opener which seems like a lot even if we're talking about Curry, especially since Deron Williams is out for Dallas too. If you got it at +6 or above +200 you probably did a good job getting enough value on this game. Not sure about now.

They are a different team without Curry though. Randomly off hand Indiana beat them pretty easily last year I think in a game without Curry.

[italianbandit]

Thanks Seto, I got them at +6 for my biggest NBA bet of the year. Good luck.

[Seto]

Today: 0-2, -2.7x
Total: 37-63-2, -32.74x

No words to even describe how sick I am of this season. Fukking Nets were still up 3 with just over a minute to go then give up a 10-0 run (but make sure to lose by 7 to piss me off for not taking the spread).

Then the Bulls blow a 14-point 2nd half lead to look dead in the water, then force overtime and taunt me by leading by 7 in overtime (here I am thinking "oh ok maybe this will kickstart my comeback) and then they blow that too with Monta Ellis making a ridiculous 3 off an offensive rebound when he's a horrible 3 point shooter and was 3-for-18 for the night to tie it. Then of course the Bulls win by 2, yay.

And to cap it all off the other play I was considering was Sixers ml. This has to be a joke at this point. The only "positive" I can look at was that the first 2 months were awful 3 years ago and then I had 9 or 10 consecutive winning months in the NBA starting January 2013. But fukk I mean I started the season awful that year because I was still figuring stuff out. The past month I've had makes no sense to me.

[Seto]

Oh and to cap it all off the Nets cost me the equivalent of $300 on this parlay

GameDate	Sport	Description	Risk/Win	Win/Loss Amount	Result	Date Placed
Ticket #: 3053594 Dec 30 07:00 PM Dec 30 08:00 PM Dec 30 08:30 PM	NBA NBA NBA	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) (FP) [701] BROOKLYN +264 [710] CHICAGO -150 [714] DALLAS +310	0.00 / 4177.83	0.00	LOSE LOSE PEND PEND	12/30/2015 07:09 AM

Fun times.

[italianbandit]

Hang on Seto, you'll get there.

[mlb]

just a rough patch, sometimes they last longer than others - I've seen you do it for years on here - you will be fine.

[NBA Maniac]

I'm in same boat then you, so...
you will manage to turn it around.

[Seto]

Thanks for the words of encouragement guys and happy new year. Let's make this a good year.

[Seto]

Tempting to take Orlando tonight. They've been embarrassed twice by Cleveland including once by about 40 on their home floor and the Cavs are off the West Coast road trip playing 4 games in 5 nights to end the trip.

Only problem is Orlando has been overachieving massively and are due a cold stretch so I'm hesitating quite a bit.

[Seto]

Magic+9 -115 (betvictor) (risking 2.3x to win 2x)

Gonna try and keep it simple just taking the spread.

[Seto]

Yesterday: 0-1, -2.3x
Total: 37-64-2, -35.04x

Orlando stink. Who the fukk knows how they were 19-13, they're even more puzzling than Boston. Dumb bet, regardless of the "spot".

Not gonna make much progress if half my plays lose by 20 and half my plays are gut-wrenching bad beats (or, in short version, 100% of my bets lose). Think I haven't won a play since mid-December. Albeit I haven't been playing much, I reckon that's a good 10-12 losers in a row. Unreal.

Gotta change sometime though.

[Conqueror]

Yesterday: 0-1, -2.3x
Total: 37-64-2, -35.04x

Orlando stink. Who the fukk knows how they were 19-13, they're even more puzzling than Boston. Dumb bet, regardless of the "spot".

Not gonna make much progress if half my plays lose by 20 and half my plays are gut-wrenching bad beats (or, in short version, 100% of my bets lose). Think I haven't won a play since mid-December. Albeit I haven't been playing much, I reckon that's a good 10-12 losers in a row. Unreal.

Gotta change sometime though.

Hang in there. It hasn't been this bad for you before. You'll turn it around. We all go through such cycles.

[Seto]

Hang in there. It hasn't been this bad for you before. You'll turn it around. We all go through such cycles.

Yup it hasn't in 3 years at least. It's kinda weird but whatever. Maybe I'm taking the wrong approach by being overly cautious and should just try to make more plays to bust out of the slump and figure out how I can get things to work again.

Appreciate the support.

[Martinr]

Yup it hasn't in 3 years at least. It's kinda weird but whatever. Maybe I'm taking the wrong approach by being overly cautious and should just try to make more plays to bust out of the slump and figure out how I can get things to work again.

Appreciate the support.

Making more plays could be the worst thing to do. Two things, both bad, could happen. First, you may just continue losing which could bring on full tilt, or second, by forcing plays you'll likely hit some darts, wrongly think you're back on track, and in doing so miss the opportunity you have right now to take stock.
In my opinion you'd be better off playing the same number of plays, maybe even less, but cutting down the bet size until confidence returns. Or just take a couple weeks break.
By posting your picks on a public forum there's probably an ego aspect to your losses too, which adds to the stress of losing.
Managing the bankroll during losing streaks is more important than any other aspect of this game. Even more important than having a winning edge.
If you know your sport the right picks will present themselves when they're good and ready. Don't force them.

[KRIT]

Seto gonna go on a hot run real soon.

[Seto]

Making more plays could be the worst thing to do. Two things, both bad, could happen. First, you may just continue losing which could bring on full tilt, or second, by forcing plays you'll likely hit some darts, wrongly think you're back on track, and in doing so miss the opportunity you have right now to take stock.
In my opinion you'd be better off playing the same number of plays, maybe even less, but cutting down the bet size until confidence returns. Or just take a couple weeks break.
By posting your picks on a public forum there's probably an ego aspect to your losses too, which adds to the stress of losing.
Managing the bankroll during losing streaks is more important than any other aspect of this game. Even more important than having a winning edge.
If you know your sport the right picks will present themselves when they're good and ready. Don't force them.

I appreciate your concern but I've been in this game for a long time and I've been through it all. I can guarantee you there is zero chance I will go on tilt. If it was gonna happen - it would've happened already. I mean I'm experiencing something I've never experienced before frustration-level wise and I haven't gone even close to tilting.

I have had 2 or 3 really bad tilt moments in my life but I'm a year and a half removed from the last one and I truly believe I've turned that corner for good. Last season was really testing for me mentally for reasons people who followed my thread know, and the fact that I stayed mentally poised is one of the reasons I finished the season up 8 grand when I probably was picking games less well than the previous season.

My only concern is to get back to picking games better. When I said making more plays, I meant going back to what I usually do. I'd say on average I typically make bet about 10-15 games a week, maybe even 20, and recently I've been holding back a bit because I'm not feeling confident. I feel like I might be approaching this wrong. I didn't mean that I was going to try to force plays and throw shit at the wall hoping something sticks.

[Seto]

Seto gonna go on a hot run real soon.

I hope so man. It can get real good just as quickly as it got real bad. I'm trying to approach this thinking that as bad as this season has been from a feeling standpoint, I'm only down like 2 grand or something thanks to the good start, so all I need is one good run and I'm back in business. There's still plenty of time to make this right too.