Leans for Thursday 4/2/09

[The_Kid]

1Q Philadelphia 76ers -2

Milwaukee is coming off a hard fought game vs the Lakers and now have to travel to Philadelphia which is in a different time zone. I expect them to come out sluggish. Meanwhile, Philly is rested and looking to solidify their position in the Eastern Conference. Even without Thaddeus Young, the 76ers still have some talent that can replace his production. I'm looking for Willie Green, Louis Williams, and Maureese Speights to step up tonight.

[showtime2000]

CK, congradulations on your new one! A big Congradulations from the mafia!

Me still have to get married, uhmmmm this summer, and then it's the baby!


Puck play for tonight,

Ott/Bost over 5.5
NY Rangers +132 (risky play, but going against a red hot Carolina team, and fading them here)
Calgary -130

Good luck all! Be back later.

[cocknocker]

CK,
Whats your reasoning for playin the Sixers heavy tonight? RLM? Or all the players on Mil being prob, quest, doubt? Thanks.

There are tons of reasons for RLM, but in this case, i am going purely o my homework and not the movement of the line. I talked to Biggie about this game and heard about th RLM and everything, but the capping yeilded a resounding Sixers wi so I have to roll with that. The Bucks are just an inferior team to the Sixers

[cs11787]

Sounds good to me! Lets roll.

[Pajda]

Today's 8 points teaser:

Philadelphia 76ers Pick
Washington Wizards +18
Utah Jazz +13½

Good luck all

[RoagBettor]

Pajda - I like it; good luck.

[Dexter]

Ok fellas... Let's talk Nuggets/Jazz... The line is too SMALL and that means the Jazz are the play. Last time Den played UT in denver, they were (-8 Jan.25) and the Nuggs won AND covered. Now for recent lines...

yeah, but that line had opened at 6 and rose to 8. no boozer and the jazz were on btb off a cavs game.

this line seems right on to me.

[danrman]

if the jazz lose this game they are getting damn close to falling into the 8th spot which everone wants to avoid because of the lakers.. they have to be desperate and the public is on the nuggets in a short slate of games.. still leaning jazz

[Dexter]

I'm not buying into the back-to-back theory that teams are exhausted for their 2nd game. They've played the whole season now, I don't see it making a difference at this point. Look at Toronto and Charlotte last night.

Nope, not playing games based upon the fatigue factor this late in the season. Every team is worn down.

thats one example - to me, it makes more of a difference late in the season then earlier in the season.

but there are some teams that are younger, healthier, conditioned better and deeper that play well on btb. you have to look a little deeper then just whos on btb.

[Dexter]

if the jazz lose this game they are getting damn close to falling into the 8th spot which everone wants to avoid because of the lakers.. they have to be desperate and the public is on the nuggets in a short slate of games.. still leaning jazz

you never answered my post last night unless i missed it. why did you switch off of the suns?

[cocknocker]

1Q Philadelphia 76ers -2

Milwaukee is coming off a hard fought game vs the Lakers and now have to travel to Philadelphia which is in a different time zone. I expect them to come out sluggish. Meanwhile, Philly is rested and looking to solidify their position in the Eastern Conference. Even without Thaddeus Young, the 76ers still have some talent that can replace his production. I'm looking for Willie Green, Louis Williams, and Maureese Speights to step up tonight.

I actually think that the Bucks will cover the first half with the carry over effect. I'm not betting it, but Biggie is!

[Dexter]

This is my gift to the CK Mafia for supporting me over the years. At the end of the baseball year we will have a party in Vegas. I will be charging the hell out of you guys because I know that you can afford it then!

shoebox - get them VIP passes ready...

[danrman]

sorry dex... man i saw line movement and the public on the suns so thats why i changed.. it was stupid

[Dexter]

When we have our after party in Vegas Styles will be about readyto pop. We have another bundle of joy on the way. I just found out last night. This will be number three and hopefully the last. i am getting too old to be chasing kids around the house. Speaking of houses, a move to Phoenix may be in order. I saw that property values there have declined by 35%. That is music to my ears. I love jumbo homes and I am getting tired of this one, although we have been here only 4 years. I want a change of scenery. I think that I am having the so-called mid-life crisis

congrats

[italiano22]

How do we feel about utah +5

[peterpan19]

I know that I have Mil for the 1H too as posted earlier

GL

[danrman]

if it helps any dex espn is running a stat that tells about utah being 1-15 vs. teams w/ a winning record on the road... and other media sources are touting denver

[peterpan19]

italiano22

nothing against you... but dont you ask the same question everday... when evrything you need to know you can find on the first 2 pages´of this thread... ?

anyway I will take utah +5 today

GL

[peterpan19]

danrman

hey... thx for the info... what happened to the guy who faded what espn said ? just wondering...

GL

[italiano22]

Ok my bad.....OKUR IS BACKKKK

[danrman]

dex something else to definitely look for if the cavs and phila. both cover as favs its very rare that all 3 favs. cover because of the parlay nightmare it creates for the house.. if it happens that would be another piece of the puzzle to go jazz

[cocknocker]

I'm gonna make it Utah +6. I also teased it with Philly too.

[danrman]

ya know peter i dont know.. i dont follow that type of thing on an everygame basis but when there is just a few games it has greater importance.. especially if it goes hand in hand w/ other media sources touting the same thing

[CP Thrizzle]

CK you playing Philly heavier than Utah?

[danrman]

im kinda a media and schedule follower cause its paid off for me over the years.. also like fading the public when theres a big percentage on 1 team.. duh

[danrman]

ck i went philly - 2 1/2 and utah +10 so far

[danrman]

what do you think about penn st. ck

[Rellik]

Hello guys,

My picks for today are:

Philly -7.5
Washington +10.5
Denver -4

Let's see how the cookie crumbles..!!!!

[Dexter]

if it helps any dex espn is running a stat that tells about utah being 1-15 vs. teams w/ a winning record on the road... and other media sources are touting denver

wow, worse then i thought.

the media sources touting a team has absolutely nothing to do with who will win and cover a game. espn is not affiliated with any sportsbooks. lol

i got down on denver at -5 for 3x.

good luck all.

[danrman]

also bet serena -125 against venus.. funny but true... inside info.. we'll see if it turns out

[danrman]

its been my experiance over the years to fade the media.. i've made a ton of money doing so i have to respectfully disagree... depending on the particular situation its very very strong.. i see ya "GOT YA POPCORN READY"

[shoebox]

shoebox - get them VIP passes ready...

consider it done

[Dexter]

dex something else to definitely look for if the cavs and phila. both cover as favs its very rare that all 3 favs. cover because of the parlay nightmare it creates for the house.. if it happens that would be another piece of the puzzle to go jazz

thanks dan - but i always play what i like in pro sports, and dont change my opinion based on how earlier games have done, what espn is saying etc etc. thats all coincidence imo, and has nothing to do with capping the game or sharp line movement.

i know lots of people look at trends such as the fact that all favs have covered, thus the dog has to cover the late game, dogs cover on TNT etc - i never grasped those concepts as they make zero sense to me.

[danrman]

i think espn is affiliated w/ crooks.. just think about it... nfl,nba,mlb,nhl... all of these leagues have been directly or indirectly affiliated w/ the mob... i definitely think when theres a ton of money on 1 team the refs call the game "a certain way".. to not think this goes on is nieve

[danrman]

thanks dan - but i always play what i like in pro sports, and dont change my opinion based on how earlier games have done, what espn is saying etc etc. thats all coincidence imo, and has nothing to do with capping the game or sharp line movement.

i know lots of people look at trends such as the fact that all favs have covered, thus the dog has to cover the late game, dogs cover on TNT etc - i never grasped those concepts as they make zero sense to me.

i know how you be bra and i respect that but i'll leave those opinions out next time when talking to ya cause i know you dont care about them.. my opinion isnt soley based on what games did earlier.. its just another piece of the puzzle.. if one has bet long enough you realize it turns out all kinda ways.. theres definitley no rule of thumb