Leans for Thursday 4/2/09

Dexter · 04-01-09, 10:49 PM

oh well, we disagree again.

thur 4/2-

huge game out west between the nuggets and the jazz. the sharps have already adjusted the opening line of 5 and knocked it down to 4. the home team has won every matchup this year, and its the nuggets turn to hold court. they have actually covered all 3 games this year vs utah (including a 20pt home win in jan). utah is not a solid road team (44% ats) and are also poor in the role of underdog of 3-6 pts (2-5 ats). denver on the flip side is covering their home games 56% of the time. not great, but profitable over a large sample size. the recent games in denver are a wash, and so are the nuggets as fav's of 3-6 pts.

bottom line here, utah has been playing very poorly on the road (dropped 5 of 6 su and ats) while the nuggets should be hungry for this game to even the season series. the nuggets have been on a role of late, and simply lost interest when up 27 on the knicks. i wouldnt be surprised to see this line dip a bit more, but i did have my projected at -4.

nuggets - 114
jazz - 104

-nuggets (big)

isiah121 · 04-02-09, 01:08 AM

May the best man win.

HoulihansTX · 04-02-09, 01:13 AM

An intellectual battle on the Write-ups. Love em both, but I got Denver anyway. Maybe down line i will gain the skill and patience to do write up until then...GL everyone.

cocknocker · 04-02-09, 01:15 AM

It's all good, Dexter. I like this game but not enough to get all crazy with it. The board is really short for tomorrow and this was the most unlikely circumstance that i could find. The Jazz have already shifted the line from 5 to 4 with only 19% of the early money on them. I have to ride with that kind of movement

danrman · 04-02-09, 01:19 AM

i'll make my decision tomorrow and this time i will not change my mind and cost me a win damit!!!!... another good call on the phoenix game ck.. when there are a few games it almost always pays to go against the public... tomorrow is one of those days

pho3nix32 · 04-02-09, 01:55 AM

Choices are few and just became thinner with a Denver game involved. My play for tomorrow:

line: mb@phi 196
pick: 196 under

- The Bucks are coming off a hard fought b2b game.
- The Sixers just lost an offensive threat to injury.
- The under for the Bucks is hot at 8-4.
- The Bucks have the 3rd worst fg % in the league.
- The Sixers are the 2nd worst 3-point shooting team in the league.
- Head to head, the under is 4-1 in games played in Philly.

Expect more clanks than swishes tomorrow guys and gals.

danrman · 04-02-09, 02:07 AM

nice capping pho3nix32 and thanks... BIG money comin in on denver and we know what frauds they can be.. i will confirm this tomorrow but right now my pick is the jazz

pho3nix32 · 04-02-09, 02:28 AM

im not going to touch that game. its like kryptonite to superman if you know what i mean

Vincepcion · 04-02-09, 02:29 AM

Gotta roll with Denver -3.5 (-120) and the Over (209)
Also thanks for the writeup Phoenix, I may jump on the under in that game too.

The_Kid · 04-02-09, 02:39 AM

Originally posted by pho3nix32

Choices are few and just became thinner with a Denver game involved. My play for tomorrow:

line: mb@phi 196
pick: 196 under

Denver f*ckers...

Anyway, might have to tail you on this pick, pho3nix. There are definitely slim pickings tomorrow.

The UNDER between Denver and Utah is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings but the lines makers keep setting the totals no lower than 206.5. Tomorrow is no exception. In the last meeting, the teams combined for only 188 points and yet the total (209) is exactly similar when both these teams met back in early March. However, in Denver, the OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. I don't know what's going on and I want to take a stab at the OVER but I feel like this game could go way UNDER the total, which would be an exact repeat of the last 4 meetings. Any other thoughts/opinions about this one?

suicidekings · 04-02-09, 02:53 AM

A quick look at the games for tomorrow suggests that the UTA/DEN line is too low. Denver will cover -4.5 easily. Utah is 6-11 ATS as a dog on the road (3-14 SU). I would go with Denver.

Although I'm leaning more and more to just concentrating on NHL. The NBA has been giving me headaches recently...

pho3nix32 · 04-02-09, 02:56 AM

i like the under in that game too kid. but again. no touching

Gnutti · 04-02-09, 03:09 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

A quick look at the games for tomorrow suggests that the UTA/DEN line is too low. Denver will cover -4.5 easily. Utah is 6-11 ATS as a dog on the road (3-14 SU). I would go with Denver.

Although I'm leaning more and more to just concentrating on NHL. The NBA has been giving me headaches recently...

The line isn't too low. It mustn't be higher

peterpan19 · 04-02-09, 05:49 AM

ok guys, not a bad yesterday, as Mia, Char, Pho and Tor 1H cashed... only the Pistons let me down big time, destroying my teaser too... and Was lost and Mil covered, but that was for change only...
ok here is what I like today:
Mil +4.5 1H
both games this season were pretty close/ wins for Mil at the half (mil by 4, mil by 7)... I just dont see how this should change here today... Phi is not that great of a team and after that huge win against the Hawks I somehow expect them to have a bit of a meltdown today...same can be said about the Bucks... but I just feel they get the job done today... at least in the 1H

utah +4
I just have to go with them here today... my site shows 95% of the money is on Denver and the line went down to 4 ?... add in that Utah normally plays pretty well in Denver as they are 4-2 ATS and SU... add in that utah comes off a huge blow out loss... plus if they still want to win the Division they just have to win here today...give me Utah and the points here today... I also think this game will probably go under, but not playing it...

Cle 1st qtr
they just have to win a 1st qtr sooner or later again... why not against the Wizards today (btw they lost both 1st qtr this season against them)... add in that Lebron still remembers the last time they went to Was and lost... I just have to think he will put on a show here in the 1st qtr... but lets see what the total for the game is this time... anything around 185 to 190 and I will take the Under instead...predicted score is 95-80

GL

bkny2cnc · 04-02-09, 06:59 AM

I also like utah today,but in the back of my mind utah's record is horrendous against teams with a 500 or better record on the road.

Jimbo42 · 04-02-09, 08:02 AM

Ok fellas... Let's talk Nuggets/Jazz... The line is too SMALL and that means the Jazz are the play. Last time Den played UT in denver, they were (-8 Jan.25) and the Nuggs won AND covered. Now for recent lines...
Denver comes into this game as one of the hottest teams in the NBA (we are talking public perception now) as they are 9-1 straight up last ten games.. and 6-3ats last 9games...
Utah is 5-5 straight up last 10 and an abysmal 2-8ats last 10games add to that the fact that everyone by now knows that Utah sucks on the road.

Last time Denver was only -4 against a team was Mar.9th when Houston came to Den red hot having won 10 out of 12games. Denver at the time was cold having won just 3 of their 7 at the time.

Now you got a redhot Denver team against a "cold" Utah team and the line is only -4 when they have shown that they can cover -8 against Utah the last time they played them in DEN???

Utah just got smmaaassshed in Portland at +6 and the general public considers Denver with the big stars to be better than Portland and the linemaker doesn't even make the line at least +6 for Utah?????

The linemaker wants you on Denver in this one and that is exactly what he is getting.....Put me on the other side with UTAH!

NBA Hero · 04-02-09, 08:21 AM

Originally posted by Jimbo42

Ok fellas... Let's talk Nuggets/Jazz... The line is too SMALL and that means the Jazz are the play. Last time Den played UT in denver, they were (-8 Jan.25) and the Nuggs won AND covered. Now for recent lines...
Denver comes into this game as one of the hottest teams in the NBA (we are talking public perception now) as they are 9-1 straight up last ten games.. and 6-3ats last 9games...
Utah is 5-5 straight up last 10 and an abysmal 2-8ats last 10games add to that the fact that everyone by now knows that Utah sucks on the road.

Last time Denver was only -4 against a team was Mar.9th when Houston came to Den red hot having won 10 out of 12games. Denver at the time was cold having won just 3 of their 7 at the time.

Now you got a redhot Denver team against a "cold" Utah team and the line is only -4 when they have shown that they can cover -8 against Utah the last time they played them in DEN???

Utah just got smmaaassshed in Portland at +6 and the general public considers Denver with the big stars to be better than Portland and the linemaker doesn't even make the line at least +6 for Utah?????

The linemaker wants you on Denver in this one and that is exactly what he is getting.....Put me on the other side with UTAH!

love the analysis dude. those are the things i forgot to factor out thats why im on a losing atreak this week.

texhooper · 04-02-09, 08:34 AM

pho i have had this nagging urge to take the under in the phil/mil game, but i usually try to make that little totals voice go away. but i might have to jump on it as well. also just booked utah +4.5.

natelli1 · 04-02-09, 08:52 AM

the denver nuggets are the 2 seed in the west, if you think they are gonna lose to a division opponent with the 2 seed at stake, its not gonna happen, utah doesnt play good defense on the road, and the nuggets shoot a good % when they play at home
-nuggets-4

the milwaukee bucks are coming off a tough grinded out game at home vs the lakers, they are drained after this one, and now throw a plane ride to philly in there an we have a .... BLOWOUT!
-76ers-7.5

no line on this cavs-wizards game, but if arenas doesnt play ill take the cavs -anything .. wizards are on a b2b after playing a high scoring game against memphis, cavs will score at will and lock down defense will result in another blowout favoring the cavs...

RoagBettor · 04-02-09, 08:56 AM

Logic has been thrown out the window this week on most plays.

I booked my 3/8 teaser:

Milwaukee +15.5
Utah +12
Utah/Denver under 216.5

RoagBettor · 04-02-09, 08:59 AM

I'm not buying into the back-to-back theory that teams are exhausted for their 2nd game. They've played the whole season now, I don't see it making a difference at this point. Look at Toronto and Charlotte last night.

Nope, not playing games based upon the fatigue factor this late in the season. Every team is worn down.

peterpan19 · 04-02-09, 09:11 AM

roagbettor
thats why I am on Mil today...now with 67% on Phi (according to my side) and the line went down to 7.5... I like em even more... I dont know about the whole game though... bc the few time they played them this year they played great in the first half and pretty much ruined everything in the 2H

also Utah line going up right now... its at 5 at some places right now...

RoagBettor · 04-02-09, 09:30 AM

Cleveland line -9.5 and 192 for the o/u

I'm tempted to take Washington +18.5 and the under 200 with Milwaukee +15.5.

peterpan19 · 04-02-09, 10:10 AM

roagbettor
wait on that Washington pick...public will be all over the Cavs...that said the line is going up already...

GL

cocknocker · 04-02-09, 10:25 AM

I am starting to like the Sixers-7.5 now, and I think that I am going to go heavy on that one. The Bucks are primed and ready for getting blown the f*ck out tonight. The Sixers ARE a playoff team, and very capable of dismantling the Bucks who gave their all in an effort to beat the Lakers last night. I really like the long chalk in this one. They can beat the Bucks by 8 with ease.

cocknocker · 04-02-09, 10:28 AM

I will also tease the Jazz and the Sixers with 4 points as well

solobass · 04-02-09, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I am starting to like the Sixers-7.5 now, and I think that I am going to go heavy on that one. The Bucks are primed and ready for getting blown the f*ck out tonight. The Sixers ARE a playoff team, and very capable of dismantling the Bucks who gave their all in an effort to beat the Lakers last night. I really like the long chalk in this one. They can beat the Bucks by 8 with ease.

i am with you and that is my only play tonight. i bought a point to get under the key number. the rest is all baseball for me today. last night i redeemed myself with a heat 2nd H +4 and warriors ML parlay.

peterpan19 · 04-02-09, 10:32 AM

ck
is utah a heavy game too... i think you said something like it last night...

anyway the line should go to 5 or 5.5 at thegreek in a few minutes....just my feeling...

GL... hey and I will play Mil 1H... so maybe we can both win

RoagBettor · 04-02-09, 10:36 AM

Pete, I still like the under on the Cavs game. The Cavs definitely don't want to be upset by Washington with a big game against Orlando tomorrow night so I think they'll clamp down and put this one away. Looking for something like 95-80 final.

peterpan19 · 04-02-09, 10:38 AM

roagbettor
plz look at post 15... its the same score I predicted...

GL

RoagBettor · 04-02-09, 10:44 AM

Pete - LOL - that's weird! I swear I didn't see that (at least not consciously).

If it comes up 95-80 then I'm going all in on the Texas Lottery this weekend!

peterpan19 · 04-02-09, 10:52 AM

roagbettor
lol... thats funny... Texas lottery I like it

good luck bro... where do you live in texas if I may ask ?

anyway here is my (almost final) card for today (booked):
Under 197 Was/Cle (small)
Mil +4 1H (small)
utah +5 (big)
teaser: Under 205.5 Cle, Phi -.5, Utah +12

GL and I am away now for lunch for a couple hours

solobass · 04-02-09, 10:56 AM

well roag and pete the numbers actually bear out what you are talking about. the most glaring aspect of this game is the cavs defense and the pace will be slower in this one. those aspects will hold down the score. the only thing that will kill your under is if the cavs are motivated to slaughter the wiz in a quarter or 2. cavs offense is very efficient and by the numbers the wiz have the 2nd worst D in the league.

peterpan19 · 04-02-09, 10:59 AM

solobass
I just don think they will slaughter them... they will rest players instead... I mean thats what I believe...

GL