2014/15 NBA Thread

[NBA Maniac]

Seto toughts on Clippers @ Spurs game 6 ?

Clippers lost game 5 by a hair, in this case by 1 finger, ahahahah
Lets not forget they only hit one 3pointer playing at home, playing away will be harder, but can they win away again, with no bench ??

[Seto]

^^ I would cash out. Grizz have no shot against GSW to be honest. Z-Bo's defense will be exposed as he cannot defend the high pick and roll. Take this for example:

High pick and roll with Curry and Draymond. If Z-Bo does not step up on the play, Curry will have room to get the shot off (death). If Z-Bo does step up and somehow slow Curry, he is too slow to recover to Draymond who can get the pass from Curry and be put into a 4 on 3 situation. Draymond is a high IQ guy and is a great passer off the dribble. IMO, Curry will just have too much room to operate in that series and they will pick and roll Z-Bo to death.

Looks like the Conley thing is pretty serious too. I doubt they will win that series. Thing is I've been busy these last 24 hours or so so I haven't had a chance.

I need these fukkers to close this series out so I can cash out for a hopefully decent amount tomorrow.

[Seto]

Seto toughts on Clippers @ Spurs game 6 ?

Clippers lost game 5 by a hair, in this case by 1 finger, ahahahah
Lets not forget they only hit one 3pointer playing at home, playing away will be harder, but can they win away again, with no bench ??

I strongly doubt it. I guess it's "possible", but I wouldn't put a penny on it. If anything I'd be tempted to take the Spurs but leaving that series alone is probably the best decision I can make.

They're idiots for not tanking that final game in Phoenix. They could've already been resting after a 4-0/4-1 win over Portland. They brought this upon themselves. At the end of the day I doubt they would've beat the Warriors either though, but they could've at least gotten an easier first round and tried to build momentum.

[Seto]

Cashed out on Memphis. I was still being offerred 190 out of my 200 stake so it was a no brainer. Anyway I can still bet it at a better price right now and have it be worth it so there was really no reason not to do it even if I still liked the bet.

[bryant81]

edit: nvm

[leetreaper]

edit: nvm

edit: you are useless.

[bryant81]

edit: you are useless.

Keep following me skeetskeetreaper, you scrub

While you're at it, keep posting fade material

[Seto]

Yesterday: 1-1, +4.55x (Grizzlies/Blazers series bets)
Total: 192-308-9, +38.77x

Still have Nets series pending at a good price. Shame they once again got close multiple times in the 4th on the road and couldn't pull it off. I definitely think they'll at least win tomorrow and get one more shot. I'm lucky I hopped off the train yesterday and didn't get burned by that bullshit cover at the end. In fact I'm quite happy I laid off the last 3 plays I liked (Mavs/Clippers Tuesday, Nets yesterday).

Also have the Bulls today. Not touching lac/spurs. I lean Spurs but I just really don't want to get involved with that series anymore.

Starting to look ahead to Sunday's game. Our first rest vs rust game this year.

[NBA Maniac]

I already jumped on Bulls.
I realy want to touch last game, but as i said before, if i touch it would be Clippers.

[nelsonrc24]

I dont usually check alternative spreads, but today i saw Bulls -30.5 at +3000!! Oh well...

[Seto]

Today: 2-0, +7.25x
Total: 194-308-9, +46.02x

First round to this point: 22-24-1, +31.52x

Only 2 bets left, Nets game 6 and Nets series. If they lose game 6 we move on to the next round. If they win game 6 I'll just ride out the series bet in game 7. No matter what happens I think we have to consider this round a positive given where it was after that -30+ unit day.

[Seto]

I dont usually check alternative spreads, but today i saw Bulls -30.5 at +3000!! Oh well...

I didn't think this game would be close at all, but I expected it to be more around 15-20. Still should've given more stuff a look probably, I mean that said it's easy to say now.

[No coincidences]

[Seto]

Nets+4 -110 (paddy power) (risking 4.4x to win 4x)

[freeeze]

Bulls have a really good shot at winning at least one of the first two games in Cleveland. And I don't think Memphis can beat the Warriors in the series without Conley but they'll probably be competitive. +10 in game 1 looks tempting but I'm haven't decided if I'll bet on it yet.

[Seto]

Bulls have a really good shot at winning at least one of the first two games in Cleveland. And I don't think Memphis can beat the Warriors in the series without Conley but they'll probably be competitive. +10 in game 1 looks tempting but I'm haven't decided if I'll bet on it yet.

I'm starting to lean Warriors. I expect a better effort from them at home than the ones they put up against New Orleans in the first couple games. They need to take better advantage of their great home court.

Then Memphis covers and has a chance in game 2...

That's the way I'm leaning as of now, we'll see.

[Seto]

As for Chicago I'm not sure what to think of the first game, but I'm just riding out the fact that I think they will win this shitty conference. I'll probably bet very little of that series game by game. Just need Chicago to pull it off.

[NBA Maniac]

Public jumping all over Bulls first game....

[Seto]

Today: 0-2, -6.4x
Total: 194-310-9, +39.62x

Oh well. Made some good coin on this series. I guess Brooklyn eventually had to lay an egg.

This Wizards/Hawks matchup troubles me. 2 teams I don't think much of. I guess the Wizards answered a few of the questions I had about them in the first round whereas the Hawks pretty much confirmed what I thought of them in their series, but it's still a matchup I'll tread lightly with and that I'm not very excited about.

I might give in and take LAC tomorrow. Only 2 units or so though.

[Seto]

Clippers-2 -110 (betcris) (risking 2.2x to win 2x)

[amrit]

Nice run Seto! Been a long-time. Jeez Clippers in a Game 7 vs. the Spurs...lets see if they can pull this off. Do you like the Bulls to beat the Cavs?

[Seto]

Nice run Seto! Been a long-time. Jeez Clippers in a Game 7 vs. the Spurs...lets see if they can pull this off. Do you like the Bulls to beat the Cavs?

Yes I do. I have all season not gonna change my mind now. Many people going with the "LeBron won't lose" thing. We'll see

[amrit]

They're getting really good odds surprisingly. I think Cavs cover and win game 1, hopefully Bulls can win game 2 and get the split though. I liked them all season too, hopefully they pull it off. Who do you think wins the west?

[Seto]

They're getting really good odds surprisingly. I think Cavs cover and win game 1, hopefully Bulls can win game 2 and get the split though. I liked them all season too, hopefully they pull it off. Who do you think wins the west?

Let's see who wins tomorrow first of all.

The Spurs or Memphis (with a healthy Conley) are the 2 teams that have the best chance to beat Golden State to me.

As of now I'd say the Clippers win tomorrow, then we get a Golden State - Houston WCF and Golden State wins in 5 or 6 games. But if the Spurs win it changes the whole landscape.

[amrit]

You think Houston beats LAC? I don't really see that.

[Seto]

You think Houston beats LAC? I don't really see that.

Yes. This series doesn't change my outlook on the Clippers that much. They're still a flawed team with no bench and their 2 stars have a tendency to choke. In fact, that's the reason why I'm only going with 2 units here in game 7 and why I was very hesitant to take them in game 5 and thankfully didn't.

If the Spurs had a healthy Tony Parker this series would be over. No question about it. Now don't get me wrong, this has been a fun series, easily the best first round series this year, but it's not like I've found either team overly impressive.

Now Houston has their flaws as well, no question about it. They have bad free throw shooters but at least they aren't nearly as bad as DJ, they all shoot about 55%, DJ shoots 40. It's a shame they wouldn't have Beverley to guard CP3 but they still have Ariza. Who guards Harden for LAC? I know he's struggled against them in the past but gotta think it's an anomaly. He's a different animal this year too. In terms of depth there's no contest, Houston wins in a landslide. The only huge advantage LA has is Griffin. If he has a huge series they might win but I like Houston.

And let's not forget Houston would have homecourt advantage too.

[Seto]

If the Spurs lose today the Warriors basically become a lock to win the championship to me. This series against Memphis could actually be their toughest test. Neither Houston or LAC would beat them, and at the Eastern Conference.

[bryant81]

The reason Harden has struggled against LAC is because they trap him and force the ball out of his hands. They believe the other guys are not good enough to beat them. And they're probably right. I think LAC wins that.

[bryant81]

Also, I do not think the Grizz are the toughest test for the Warriors. I actually think they will find this an easier match-up than the one against the Pelicans. I am expecting a sweep or max 5 games even if Conley plays all the games. I already made a post as to why. They have a distinct match up advantage that they can exploit all series. The Grizz do not have that. Remember, Draymond Green actually will guard Marc Gasol, not Randolph. Marc Gasol is not a guy who will dominate and punish you enough in that type of match up. This will be a quick series, no doubt. I think this is the easiest match up they will have in the entire playoffs.

[RavensFan2k3]

Today: 0-2, -6.4x
Total: 194-310-9, +39.62x

Oh well. Made some good coin on this series. I guess Brooklyn eventually had to lay an egg.

This Wizards/Hawks matchup troubles me. 2 teams I don't think much of. I guess the Wizards answered a few of the questions I had about them in the first round whereas the Hawks pretty much confirmed what I thought of them in their series, but it's still a matchup I'll tread lightly with and that I'm not very excited about.

I might give in and take LAC tomorrow. Only 2 units or so though.

Amazing job man!

Clippers-2 -110 (betcris) (risking 2.2x to win 2x)

Im looking heavy at this and may have to pound it since you're on it

[Seto]

Im looking heavy at this and may have to pound it since you're on it

Nobody should be pounding either side in this game. It's a tough game to bet on.

[Seto]

Also, I do not think the Grizz are the toughest test for the Warriors. I actually think they will find this an easier match-up than the one against the Pelicans. I am expecting a sweep or max 5 games even if Conley plays all the games. I already made a post as to why. They have a distinct match up advantage that they can exploit all series. The Grizz do not have that. Remember, Draymond Green actually will guard Marc Gasol, not Randolph. Marc Gasol is not a guy who will dominate and punish you enough in that type of match up. This will be a quick series, no doubt. I think this is the easiest match up they will have in the entire playoffs.

I don't think you can sum the whole series up to one matchup. Memphis is a tough, playoff tested team that has a few scalps to their name and play everyone tough (I should know since I thought OKC would beat them easily last year and that didn't end very well for me in games 2 and 3). And, much like the Warriors, they are extremely tough to beat at home in the playoffs.

The Warriors have not beaten anyone in the playoffs except a shitty Denver team 2 years ago and an unexperienced Pelicans squad this year. I expect them to lose at least 2 games in this series if Conley is somewhat healthy. This is the test to see if this team is championship ready. I know they have many advantages including depth, health, and the best player on the floor but I feel this series will be competitive.

That said I like Golden State in game 1. I'm not sure I want to lay that many points but it feels like the right play.

[NBA Maniac]

Clippers-2 -110 (betcris) (risking 2.2x to win 2x)

You did change your mind
But i understand, not going crazy on the play.

Yesterday Atlanta didn't gave me chance to play a better spread LIVE, i should have pulled the trigger before tip off

Brooklyn ahahahah what a joke

[amrit]

^^ With Conley being hurt, I don't see that series going past 5 games. I'm starting to think SA wins today...think clippers are due for a typical choke.

[Seto]

You did change your mind
But i understand, not going crazy on the play.

Yesterday Atlanta didn't gave me chance to play a better spread LIVE, i should have pulled the trigger before tip off

Brooklyn ahahahah what a joke

Yeah it's only a 2 unit play it's not a big deal.

The Nets did their job in that series by cashing most of my bets on them and exposing Atlanta as the average team I thought they were. It's a shame they did what they did in game 6, but at the end of the day it was a profitable series. The only one I made more money on is Bulls/Bucks I think.

Actually just added up the whole thing.

Bucks/Bulls: +1660
Nets/Hawks: +1260
Blazers/Grizzlies: +1255
Wizards/Raptors: +656.33
Mavs/Rockets: +204.46
Pelicans/Warriors: -120
Celtics/Cavs: -465
Spurs/Clippers: -1625

Total: +2825.79

I really have to add up all the money I have lost betting on Clippers games the last 3 years. It must be downright scary.