Leans for Wednesday 3/18/09

Skelaton4 · 03-18-09, 12:30 AM

You got me a few wins yesterday. Rhode Island.. Oh yea. Warriors. Oh yea. Keep up the good work, keep making $$$$

haserfauld · 03-18-09, 03:04 AM

What about miami +6.5? Boston back to back, KG still out, boston at home but traveling from chicago. Long hard game last night. Miami looking fantastic (wade??) on 3 days rest. I could see boston eek this out but by 7+?

Vincepcion · 03-18-09, 03:12 AM

Love Orlando, leaning toward the Celtics too.

pho3nix32 · 03-18-09, 04:20 AM

line: dn@**+6.5
pick: dn-6.5

Denver F#ck#rs Trends:

- The Nuggets are 18-12 ATS against poor defensive teams this season.
- The Nuggets are 26-19 ATS playing as favorites this season.
- The Grizzlies are 2-13 ATS against the northwest this season.
- The Grizzlies are 12-19 ATS against poor defensive teams this season.
- H2h, the Nuggets are 7-3 in their matchups for the last 3 seasons.
- H2h, the nuggets are 4-1 in games played in Memphis for the last 3 seasons.

Yes, this is not a typo. I'm picking the Denver F#ck#rs to cover tomorrow. They are half a game behind Houston for the 3rd seed in the west. The Grizzlies on the other hand would like to do some tanking to get more lottery balls as they are 2.5 games behind the Clips in the battle of bottom-feeders. I expect the F#ck#rs to trounce the Grizzlies tomorrow my friends.

King_Bookie · 03-18-09, 06:58 AM

I went 3 - 1 today (ORL, PHI, CHI. DAL sucked ass) and tomorrow's game looks very promising for parlays!

CHI @ OKC -> OKC -2 / Over 199

Boston hex in effect. Oklahoma is getting is funk back now that Kevin Durant is back on the rotation (while Westbrook and Green improved their game while he was away, a sign of a good future team) with their trouncing of the highly touted San Antonio Spurs. They are also 41-24-1 ATS this season and just by betting for them should make you a successful capper and a happy gambler. Chicago is hot from a tight win over Boston and they had to go to Oklahoma after the game so fatigue will be factor tomorrow and Chicago is a notoriously bad road team. I see Oklahoma winning 106 - 100.

ORL @ MIL -> ORL -6 / Under 203

Boston hex in effect again. Orlando is reeling from what should have been a win against Cleveland in the Q today. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, they are the winners and the recipient of a defensive lockdown and offensive massacre from Orlando with all that pent up fury from the recent game. Orlando also has Milwaukee's number(just like what I said about Lebron yesterday), winning the last 5 of 6 head to head(winning by an average of 17 points. Fatigue may be a negative for Dwight and the boys but I think that could have been detrimental if they didnt loss the damn game. I see Orlando winning 89 - 77.

MIN @ NO -> NO -anything(heavy) / over 192

New Orleans is on a 2 game losing streak, including a manhandling from Chicago and an upset from a Yao-less and McGrady-less Houston. Expect New Orleans to score more than 110 points this game against a Minnesota squad who just came from another loss against a Duncan-less and Manu-Less Spurs. Fatigue may be a factor here but Minnesota has been playing good with Dr. Love at the helm while Al J is still injured. I see this game easily going over.

NJ @ NY -> NY -7 / Over 216

New York has been on fire lately, winning 3 of their 5 road games and winning all of them ATS. Now that they had some rest and at the Garden, expect them to go out with guns blazing against New Jersey who is missing Devin Harris (0-2 without him) and is reeling of from a 20+ point loss from Denver(although that was largely fueled by a revenge factor). Both of them are still in playoff contention so expect them to either shoot the lights out or engage themselves in a mad defensive scramble. NY will win this bigtime unless Carter goes on a three pointer rampage like he did with the Clippers.

PHI @ PHO -> PHO -6.5 / OVER 9000 (heavy bet, sweet jesus)

Two high scoring teams, two defense-oriented teams(not)... Wild Wild West will commence tomorrow featuring a rain of 3 pointers and mid range shots from Phoenix and a flurry of slice and dice from the Sixers. We all saw the very very entertaining show we saw when the Suns visited the Warriors (284 points, wow) and we can expect a high noon in Texas. The Lakers were just handed a rare home game loss by the Sixers and it may look like they will be still dazed with that win when they enter Phoenix where the ring is 3-feet wide /sarcasm. Phoenix have been put down by critics as the team who will be 9th in the west but they are still fighting, winning games against Oklahoma and Golden State. OVER is the bet today and I can't see Phoenix scoring less than 110 points so its up to Philadelphia to keep up with the rapid scoring pace.

MIA @ BOS -> PASS / Under 193

Boston is now on a 3 game losing skid and Dwayne Wade looks like he's gunning for the MVP. Still, its hard to bet on a team without KG, Tony Allen and Big Baby Davis and its not easy betting on a road team as incosistent as the Raptors (see what Philly did to them?). I'm passing this game but I will definitely bet on the Under. Boston prides themselves on defense(despite giving 34 points to Chicago in Q1 today and messing with my 1H play) and they have been 11-1-1 Under at home. This game is a toss up and unless something huge happens I'm staying away from this game.

My bets will be:

OKC -1.5
ORL -6
NY -6.5
NO -12

Featuring 3-play parlays of:

ORL @ MIL under 203
MIA @ BOS under 193
PHI @ PHO over 228

and a huge six-game parlay of:

PHI @ PHO over 228
OKC ML
NO ML
ORL -6
CHI @ OKC over 199
MIA @ BOS under 193

(NOTE: I'm not betting online but rather on a local book here)

GL to all.

Dexter · 03-18-09, 07:16 AM

Wed 3/18-

the kings will be on btb from atlanta to charl - the bobcats are fighting for their playoff lives, and should hold the kings to 80-85 points in this spot. projected line of -10.

-bobcats
_____________
the wolves will also be on a btb from texas to new orleans - the hornets have dropped 2 tough games vs the rockets and bulls. a matchup with the wolves should get them back on track, as the hornets will have settled back in after the recent road trip. projected line of -11.5

-hornets
________________
the magic should be hungry to pound on the bucks off a su loss to the cavs last night. they have been solid ats off a loss all year. throw in that the bucks just beat the celts, and a letdown can be expected. the magic are 12-5 ats off a su loss this year.

-magic
________________
the bulls will be on a btb coming off a su win vs boston. letdown vs the young upstart thunder who are healthy again.

-thunder
_________________

*note - the boston hex has been 2-5 the last 7 ats, but i simply like fading the 2 teams involved tonight. many of those recent loses included the lakers, spurs, jazz who had beaten the champs. the bulls and bucks are good teams to fade in this spot.

showtime2000 · 03-18-09, 07:17 AM

Morning boys, heading out for a few days to sample some fine wine and dine with the lovely lady in the Falls. Try to checkin throughout the day.

NHL leans,
Chicago/Columbus over 5.5

peterpan19 · 03-18-09, 07:22 AM

ok not much of a writeup today as I am busy right now, but lets start withe the obvious picks here:
orl -6 they lost yesterday and they have an very impressive ATS record after a loss this season (12-5 or so), plus the Boston hex is in on here too... so what do you want more, orlando it is

okc -2 boston hex is on here too.... and chi is a horrible road team 0-5 su and 2-5 ats ... only bad thing okc is only 2-3 as a home fav this year

mia +6.5 bos is just a mess right now and wade will somehow find a way to keep this one close, but bos just wont cover here today

NY -7 mhh... ok they normally never play nyj well and they also come home from a long road trip, but for NJ its even worse as this is their 5th road game and the other 4 were on the west coast...

waiting on the lines for the hou and ind game right now...

Dexter · 03-18-09, 07:26 AM

Originally posted by King_Bookie

PHI @ PHO -> PHO -6.5 / OVER 9000 (heavy bet, sweet jesus)

Two high scoring teams, two defense-oriented teams(not)... Wild Wild West will commence tomorrow featuring a rain of 3 pointers and mid range shots from Phoenix and a flurry of slice and dice from the Sixers. We all saw the very very entertaining show we saw when the Suns visited the Warriors (284 points, wow) and we can expect a high noon in Texas.

fyi - the sixers are not a high scoring team. they avg 96ppg and give up only 96ppg.

Dexter · 03-18-09, 07:36 AM

thur 3/19-

the blazers will be playing their 4th game in 5 nights coming off a game wed night vs a run n gun pacers team who should drag them up and down the court for 48 minutes. the cavs will be rested off a home win vs orlando. port has been dreadful all year on the road, and playing in cleav has never been good to them. the cavs are 5-0 ats the last 5 home games vs port, winning all 5 of those games by an avg margin of 14ppg. projected line of -8. this is the strongest game ive seen since boston at home over the suns.

-cavs (huge)

pho3nix32 · 03-18-09, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

fyi - the sixers are not a high scoring team. they avg 96ppg and give up only 96ppg.

good post dex...the Kid and myself paid the price on the lakers/philly total today.

the books have already caught up with that running stuff of the sixers...just like that of the twolves.

King_Bookie · 03-18-09, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

fyi - the sixers are not a high scoring team. they avg 96ppg and give up only 96ppg.

Originally posted by pho3nix32

good post dex...the Kid and myself paid the price on the lakers/philly total today.

the books have already caught up with that running stuff of the sixers...just like that of the twolves.

Good points, but I'm attributing my heavy lean to the over to the fact that Lakers are notoriously known for playing at the level that their opponents play. I've noticed a trend that Laker's usually score low when against defensive teams (SA, NO, PHI and the like) and scores high against offensive teams (SAC, GS, PHO, etc.).

And remember the game will be held at Phoenix. Here, Nash and his boys calls the shots and will probably dictate the pace of the game. If this happens, the Sixers will eventually keep up with their scoring. Linemakers don't put it this high and expect people to go over(like what they did with the Bos @ Chi game, putting the line at a dangerous -2).

repski · 03-18-09, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

fyi - the sixers are not a high scoring team. they avg 96ppg and give up only 96ppg.

Dexter,

I agree Sixers are not a good offensive team. From beyond the arc horrible.(although if you watched the last 2 games Donyell Marshall has been unconcsious from 3pt land). I believe with the weak D that the Suns play the Sixers will be able to run...I think the over is a good bet here...JMHO

Idawg357 · 03-18-09, 08:19 AM

Ck do your thing u the man!! Pseg holla

Dexter · 03-18-09, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by King_Bookie

Good points, but I'm attributing my heavy lean to the over to the fact that Lakers are notoriously known for playing at the level that their opponents play. I've noticed a trend that Laker's usually score low when against defensive teams (SA, NO, PHI and the like) and scores high against offensive teams (SAC, GS, PHO, etc.).

im not doubting the play - just wanted to give you a heads up on the actual stats KB.

King_Bookie · 03-18-09, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

im not doubting the play - just wanted to give you a heads up on the actual stats KB.

Acknowledged, and I appreciate it

Its just that I'm still dazed from that 154 point perfmonance

repski · 03-18-09, 08:44 AM

something to watch with the already depleted Celts....on a BTB

"Ray Allen (elbow) and point guard Rajon Rondo (ankle) might not play.In addition, inside scorer Leon Powe also could be out."

repski · 03-18-09, 09:01 AM

Dexter
noticing a little RLM in the Bucks favor....

what's your opinion on the NYK....NJN come back from the west coast now take a bus up to the Garden to pick up a rested Knicks team (playing well recently for D'Antoni) without Harris....Knicks don't usually blow anyone out..but this is a set-up..IMO

RoagBettor · 03-18-09, 09:06 AM

Guys, what is the link to see how much money the public is wagering on each game?

Thanks.

csimmalavong · 03-18-09, 09:08 AM

okc looks toooo easy !

King_Bookie · 03-18-09, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by repski

something to watch with the already depleted Celts....on a BTB

"Ray Allen (elbow) and point guard Rajon Rondo (ankle) might not play.In addition, inside scorer Leon Powe also could be out."

So Rondo's ankle is still bothering him?

So then how many guys would play tomorrow if the three were gone? 6??

peterpan19 · 03-18-09, 09:10 AM

repski

I really love the Knicks tonight, they played well on their roadie, playing a close game with Cle, two nice wins as underdogs in mil and det, and a nice win against Min. Only other loss was to the Nets, so they have revenge on their mind for sure here... plus like you said this is a tough spot for new jersey as this is the 5th game of their road trip, and they only had 1 day rest between the denver and this game today... they will be tired and not fully adjusted to the time zone again... new york is rested and will play them tough

GL

peterpan19 · 03-18-09, 09:18 AM

if rondo and allen are out that would leave the celtics with
pierce, perkins, powe (maybe gone too), house, moore, walker and marburry, pruitt ?? hell are you kidding me 7 guys ?

edit:
Mia +5 booked

orl down to -5.5
NY down to -6.5
okc -2 right now....

Vincepcion · 03-18-09, 09:20 AM

I would assume Powe is the least likely to play. Get ready to see a possible frontcourt of Perkins/Moore

lol

peterpan19 · 03-18-09, 09:26 AM

hehe 5min ago the bos line went back up on the greek at +5.5 -110 for miami ... now its already +5 -115
well I think I might even throw a few bucks on the ML today...

anyway denver line upto -7 now... looks good for all the mem backers

GL

RoagBettor · 03-18-09, 09:38 AM

I said I'd never bet Detroit again but that +9 against the Rockets looks good with Yao not 100% and Carl Landry out from getting shot here in Houston.

El Degeneroso · 03-18-09, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

thur 3/19-

the blazers will be playing their 4th game in 5 nights coming off a game wed night vs a run n gun pacers team who should drag them up and down the court for 48 minutes. the cavs will be rested off a home win vs orlando. port has been dreadful all year on the road, and playing in cleav has never been good to them. the cavs are 5-0 ats the last 5 home games vs port, winning all 5 of those games by an avg margin of 14ppg. projected line of -8. this is the strongest game ive seen since boston at home over the suns.

-cavs (huge)

Great heads up on what looks like a fantastic play for tomorrow. Gotta get this one quick when it comes out as I imagine it will shoot up quick. As far as tonight, I like:

Boston (-4 1/2) - Not much of a statistical write up for this one, I just feel that Boston, returning home, is feeling a sense of urgency to maintain its no. 2 spot in the east (as the No. 1 spot looks like its out of the question). I cannot imagine that this team wants to come in to the playoffs looking at a no. 3 seed, and championship teams respond when it is needed most. This is one of those nights IMO. (EDIT, was not aware that R. Allen and Rondo might not play, will wait and see on this one) (BTW could Boston have any more injuries?)

OK City (-2) - Chicago coming off win @ home v Boston, playing a Thunder team whose been a solid ATS performer all season and has taken down a lot of good teams at their place, seems like OK City is the right side in this one.

peterpan19 · 03-18-09, 09:40 AM

BOS-F-Davis-OUT, F-Powe-Out, G-Allen-Questionable, G-Rondo-Questionable

King_Bookie · 03-18-09, 09:48 AM

Who's gonna play? Pruitt? Pfft.

Even Maryland is better.

repski · 03-18-09, 09:48 AM

NYK -7
-NYK have covered their last 4 ATS(all on the road)
-NYK are 6-1-1 in their last 8 ATS
-The Knicks are also 5-2-1 ATS after a SU loss
-The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games overall
-NJ is 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams

Knicks possibly get Duhon..NJN Harris definitely out...

El Degeneroso · 03-18-09, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

BOS-F-Davis-OUT, F-Powe-Out, G-Allen-Questionable, G-Rondo-Questionable

They might be suiting up the ball boys tonight. For some reason I still feel as though they gut this one out. Now if both the guards sit I imagine that feeling will be going by the wayside...............

solobass · 03-18-09, 09:58 AM

i cannot post on my thread for some reason. anyway not in the model but betting memphis per CK, waiting for the line to get pumped up as well.

King_Bookie · 03-18-09, 09:58 AM

My local book has the celts game at MIA @ BOS -2... too damn low but I'll take it!

repski · 03-18-09, 10:01 AM

also leaning Clipshow...70% of the public betting Wiz....line is sitting chilly so far @ -7..