Leans for Sunday 3/15/09

W0lfy · 03-14-09, 11:21 PM

Blazers not such a hot road team, and Hawks are hot at home right now. I agree on buying the points and 6.5 might be a bit too much, but i went the opposite way and got the Hawks at -3. GL though!

The_Kid · 03-15-09, 01:10 AM

The Grizzlies are done for the season. They are playing for the lottery at this point. They did give Celtics backers a run for their money a few nights ago but this is the last game on their 4 game road trip. It won't get easier as they face the Pistons, who are trying to solidify their playoff spot in the Eastern Conference; the Pistons are only 4 games out of 4th place for home court advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings vs the Grizzlies. They have won those games by an average of 11 points. With or without Rasheed, I still feel the Pistons will take care of business at home. One more note to add is that the Pistons owner, Bill Davidson, just died. I'm sure they'll play this game wanting to win it for him. Going with Detroit -9 at home vs the Grizzlies.

The OVER between Dallas and the Lakers is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Average totals have been set at about 206 points while the scores have averaged 212 points. The total has been set at 211.5 for tomorrow's afternoon game on national television and that's a big adjustment from last meeting where the total was set at 205 and the teams combined to score 221. The lines makers know these teams will score and I also think so too. I like the OVER 211.5.

danrman · 03-15-09, 02:38 AM

i wouldnt go hog wild w/ detroit cause they go on the road w/ 2 tough games at dallas and at houston next.. its possible they wont cover cause they know they can win the game at any time in the 4th period.. similar to the celtics approach when they played memphis the other night

danrman · 03-15-09, 02:45 AM

philly is a possible play... miami has boston next and had tripple overtime game and then travel to a fresh 76er home game...

nj-la clippers over the total is another good possiblity

csimmalavong · 03-15-09, 02:52 AM

orlando is too high imo

danrman · 03-15-09, 02:58 AM

boston has sucked on sundays folks... they then go on the road to face an upstart team in chicago thats not a guaranteed win and then the revenge game w/ miami at home... they could be looking ahead as this is a dead spot on the schedule... it looks insane but milwaukee is worth the look... remember they struggled w/ nj on the road winning by 2 at the buzzer... this could be a similar outcome

danrman · 03-15-09, 03:05 AM

hey csimmalavong what is the line on orlando... i dont see one out yet

The_Kid · 03-15-09, 03:18 AM

Originally posted by danrman

i wouldnt go hog wild w/ detroit cause they go on the road w/ 2 tough games at dallas and at houston next.

I understand your reasoning, danrman. I am not going crazy with this play. They could also take this game as a must-win because, as you mentioned, they do go on the road to face Dallas and Houston. They need to take care of business at home before going on the road for two tough ones.

danrman · 03-15-09, 03:35 AM

thats cool kid... is rasheeeeeeed wallace 100%

SportsTerminator · 03-15-09, 04:00 AM

I like the Raptors, Hawks, Pistons, Celtics, 76ers, Lakers, Caveliers, Magic, Washington, Warriors and the Clippers. So basically it's all the hometeams except the Bucks I like...

pho3nix32 · 03-15-09, 04:19 AM

I'm back....let's try this again...

line: **@dp 183.5
pick: 183.5 under

Under trends:

- The under for Memphis is 29-20 as dogs this season.
- The under for Memphis is 4-0 on Sundays this season.
- The under for Memphis is 29-20 on revenge games this season.
- The under for Detroit is 8-4 on Sundays this season.
- The under for Detroit is 15-9 against the west this season.
- Head to head, the under is 4-1 for the last 3 seasons.
- Head to head, the under is 2-0 on games played in Motown for the last 3 seasons.

Early game, no sufficient sleep from partying last night. Bricks bricks bricks baby!!!

MVFC182 · 03-15-09, 04:21 AM

I'm a NBA rookie and need some advice.

Do we fade Boston and Lakers now that they have clinched their divisions or do the teams usually continue strong?

SportsTerminator · 03-15-09, 04:28 AM

Every team plays hard every game. Especially around this time. Boston and the Lakers are playing for seeding in the playoffs and championship. Every game counts, it could determine the championship. Yes the Lakers clinch the playoffs but they want to have the number 1 seed in the West and homecourt in the Championship if applicable.

And as far as Memphis vs. Detroit, Detroit is winning.

pho3nix32 · 03-15-09, 04:34 AM

sportsterminator is right, add the fact that these teams are neck to neck in the race for homecourt throughout the playoffs...they will still play to win, the question is, will they cover the spreads?

wangichu · 03-15-09, 05:48 AM

early games,

ATL -4
MIL +6.5
PHI ML (or up to -4)

MVFC182 · 03-15-09, 05:53 AM

Originally posted by SportsTerminator

Every team plays hard every game. Especially around this time. Boston and the Lakers are playing for seeding in the playoffs and championship. Every game counts, it could determine the championship. Yes the Lakers clinch the playoffs but they want to have the number 1 seed in the West and homecourt in the Championship if applicable.

And as far as Memphis vs. Detroit, Detroit is winning.

Thanks man, appreciated.

I'm liking Lakers at home tomorrow, might buy a few points though.

solobass · 03-15-09, 07:23 AM

system went 3-3 yesterday, i can live with that b/c of the utah loss.....they were trying to do their best syracuse impersonation. right now i have calls for 2 games. i need lines to come out on my book, because the line that i am going to bet on gets factored in 3 separate times. then i can finish my formula for the rest of the games. the lakers/mavs game, that will not fit no matter what the line movement is. the pistons/grizz, up or down it will make a play on one side or the other. for now though.....

Blazers +4.5
Celts -6.5

best of luck everyone!

darkenergy · 03-15-09, 07:29 AM

I like 76er -5
Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Boston are 7-3
After playing Utah are 6-4
After a win are 3-7

Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 7-3
Before playing LA Lakers are 6-4
After playing Chicago are 4-6
After a win are 6-4

Heats just went triple overtime yesterday, 76er is have a rested day yesterday.
I also like UNDER for this game too.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing Miami

Now this stat is support UNDER but little scary for backing Sixer, BUT I still think Sixer own Heats at home.

Philadelphia has the third worst free throw percentage in the league at 74.0.
Philadelphia is last in the league scoring three points made with 4.1 per game.

Here are my plays, please share your opinion as this is my first time do this "copy/paste" things

76er -5
Under 197
76er + Under A/R

MeatMan73 · 03-15-09, 08:16 AM

As someone who lives near the Palace of Auburn Hills, I can tell you the Pistons dont typically play well (for some reason) on Sunday's. So, I'd stay away from that game completely today.

Miami's travel & early start time today, makes Philly an attractive pick.

Also- Utah doesnt play well on Sunday's either (check the record) so Orlando might be a tasty pick if the spread is not over-priced.

Good Luck

Dexter · 03-15-09, 08:18 AM

Sunday 3/15-

the hawks have been impressive at home covering the last 6 games, while the blazers are 12-18 ats on the road. port has actually won the last 5 games su in atl - forget all that - the schedule makers have graced the blazers with a 1pm eastern game on sunday (10am to them) - this is one my favorite angles in sports. playing the east coast team in an early afternoon game whatever the sport is. throw in some revenge for the hawks after losing by 10 on 2/20 at port, and you have a very solid sunday play here.

-hawks (big)
____________________
the jazz conclude their 5 game east coast trip today in orlando where they are 1-4 ats the last 5 meetings. the magic have won 4 of those games su by 11ppg. utah is coming off a 3OT game yesterday, while the magic are rested off a friday night win. projected line of -5.

-magic
___________________
so the over suns stretch went 2-1 for me, winning 2 units. was hoping for a longer streak, but positive units is what this is all about. no play on this super high total tonight which s/b around 245. but i will no doubt be fading the suns on a btb off a hard fought win. this is an old team that i feel will get run out of the gym nellie style tonight with sjax and ellis clicking right now. bierdrins is out, and maggette is questionable. no worries with either. maggette's offense wont be needed vs this defense, and the warriors are used to playing without their big man. projected line of -4.5.

- warriors (big)
___________________

Dexter · 03-15-09, 08:20 AM

Originally posted by solobass

Blazers +4.5

sucks we're on different sides.

peterpan19 · 03-15-09, 08:26 AM

well a ton of games today so its tough to limit yourself to 3-4 games, here we go and also a bit late today, but hey its sunday and yesterday was saturday...:
ATL -4
I am taking the hot home team here today... the record is not great as they always play Por pretty bad, but this is an early game for them ... but I will watch the line movement b4 I make a play here...

PHI -5 projected.... 3OT ... 5-0 SU and ATS agaisnt Miami ... revenge from their loss earlier in the year ... I dont think I need to say more here .... also taking Phi 1 st qtr as they win 61% and miami only 30% (hey they played bad in the first yesterday, why not again today...)

Det -9
2-1 ATS against mem, 8-1 SU at home... this is mem 4th road game ... Det still w/o AI ... already beat them by 8 on the road this year ... will be an emotional game as the owner just died ... i am thinking blowout here ... maybe not a great start, but they will blow them away ... mem is 7-1 ATS on the road right now, dont think it will continue

Bos 1st qtr ... only 1-2 SU and they are lucky that they are only 1-2 ATS and not 0-3 ATS as they got points in Mia ... anyway dont think it will continue today ... bos has an edge of 71-49 % in the first and they know they have to win some games if they still want the no.1 seed ... they will come out hot again

cbb:
duke
tenn
ohio state

later nba games:dal, orl (1st qtr), gs, but not final

Dexter · 03-15-09, 08:42 AM

Monday-

the nuggets got embarrassed back in feb in nj by 44 points. now the nets have to travel into denver on a btb vs a super fresh nuggets team who are playing only their 3rd game in 6 days. payback time high altitude style.

-nuggets (big)

pho3nix32 · 03-15-09, 08:56 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

Monday-

the nuggets got embarrassed back in feb in nj by 44 points. now the nets have to travel into denver on a btb vs a super fresh nuggets team who are playing only their 3rd game in 6 days. payback time high altitude style.

-nuggets (big)

stay away from those denver f#ck#rs!!!! they screwed me again today by 0.5!!!

Jimbo42 · 03-15-09, 09:10 AM

Hey Pho,
Ima likin your Suns tonight bro...Will write up later once I see that line but I am backing your boys vs. Golden State.

pho3nix32 · 03-15-09, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by Jimbo42

Hey Pho,
Ima likin your Suns tonight bro...Will write up later once I see that line but I am backing your boys vs. Golden State.

i hope they bring you cash bro! BOL!

Jimbo42 · 03-15-09, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by danrman

boston has sucked on sundays folks... they then go on the road to face an upstart team in chicago thats not a guaranteed win and then the revenge game w/ miami at home... they could be looking ahead as this is a dead spot on the schedule... it looks insane but milwaukee is worth the look... remember they struggled w/ nj on the road winning by 2 at the buzzer... this could be a similar outcome

Dan, you may be on to something.... that line (boston -6) seems kinda low. Last game MIL played they got 5 from NO and got beat by 9 and they only get 6 vs. the world champs? They played CLE a few weeks back at home and got 8 points and pushed that... MIL would be a ballsy play and I don't think I can fade the Celts... just be aware Celtic backers.

MeatMan73 · 03-15-09, 09:21 AM

Pho3nix- I'm with ya on the "proceed-with-caution-on-Denver" thoughts, this is the team who got @ss-whipped by the Sacramento Kings recently. They take games off and the common betting man doesnt know when that's gonna happen next. They tend to get real lazy on defense at unpredictable times.

Dana4U · 03-15-09, 09:31 AM

One More Stat

Originally posted by pho3nix32

I'm back....let's try this again...

line: **@dp 183.5
pick: 183.5 under

Under trends:

- The under for Memphis is 29-20 as dogs this season.
- The under for Memphis is 4-0 on Sundays this season.
- The under for Memphis is 29-20 on revenge games this season.
- The under for Detroit is 8-4 on Sundays this season.
- The under for Detroit is 15-9 against the west this season.
- Head to head, the under is 4-1 for the last 3 seasons.
- Head to head, the under is 2-0 on games played in Motown for the last 3 seasons.

Early game, no sufficient sleep from partying last night. Bricks bricks bricks baby!!!

- 4 of the last 5 games between these two teams during the last 3 seasons have been UNDER.

Going with the UNDER here as well.

NBA Hero · 03-15-09, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by MVFC182

I'm a NBA rookie and need some advice.

Do we fade Boston and Lakers now that they have clinched their divisions or do the teams usually continue strong?

they are not just after division title. they can easily get that, homecourt advantage on 2nd, 3rd round of the playoff where it matters specially on what happened last playoff. home team winning at home against losing on the road

ClockCleaner · 03-15-09, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by MeatMan73

Pho3nix- I'm with ya on the "proceed-with-caution-on-Denver" thoughts, this is the team who got @ss-whipped by the Sacramento Kings recently. They take games off and the common betting man doesnt know when that's gonna happen next. They tend to get real lazy on defense at unpredictable times.

Thats the whole purpose for betting them im this spot. They will be playing with plenty of motivation after the Nets gave them one of thier worst losses in franchise history a few weeks back.

Dexter · 03-15-09, 10:12 AM

FYI - looks like rudy fernandez is out today for the blazers - he is their X factor off the bench, and port is 0-2 su/ats this year in the 2 games hes missed.

booked sunday-

hawks -4 (big)
warriors -3 (big)
magic -6.5

King_Bookie · 03-15-09, 10:26 AM

Miami +7.5?!? Isnt that a bit high??

RoagBettor · 03-15-09, 10:32 AM

Celtics ML Heavy - they will win by 10+