Spurs/Thunder 1st Half Under 104 (0.50 Units) - These two teams have stayed below this total in 6 of the last 7 matchups in the first half in meeting in OKC
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Spurs Total Under 103 (0.50 Units) - Spurs have not scored over 99 there last 5 trips to OKC, and are 7-1-1 in covering the under 103 total since 2011/2012 season.Comment -
Alternate Total - Spurs/Thunder Under 200.5 @ +195 (0.25 Units)Comment -
For organization, all plays tonight include:
Spurs/Thunder Under 209 (0.75 Units)
Spurs 1st Qtr. +1 (0.60 Units)
Spurs 1st Qtr. ML (0.25 Units)
Spurs/Thunder 1st Qtr. Under 52 (0.50 Units)
Spurs/Thunder 1st Half Under 104 (0.50 Units)
Spurs Total Under 103 (0.50 Units)
Alternate Total - Spurs/Thunder Under 200.5 @ +195 (0.25 Units)
BOLComment -
Thread Update: Decent day yesterday, going 4-3-0 for a +0.75 Units....This brings the overall playoff thread record to 133-114-11 for a +13.33 Units Overall.....
1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 19-10-2 for a +3.75 Units
Have some plays I like in the Pacers/Heat game tonight. BOLComment -
First plays of the day, few more to come this afternoon....
Heat ML @ -280 (0.70 Units) - Heat have beat the Pacers at home the last 5 matchups by 12, 12, 3, 23, and 11.....They have also beat the Pacers outright at home in 11 of their last 13 matchups...Also from the eye test of watching every playoff game from both of these teams so far this year, this just seems like another close 1st half, and the Heat pull away mid 3rd, early 4th....
Heat -6 (bought hook) (0.60 Units) - See above....they have covered this number 4 out of the last 5 matchups against the Pacers at home.
Heat/Pacers Over 184 (0.60 Units) - This total going over is 8-4-1 between these two teams in Miami the last three seasons.....The last 3 matchups are 2-0-1 covering this total over, respectively.
Parley Heat ML and Heat/Pacers Over 184 @ +165 (0.30 Units) - See above....
Parley Heat -6 (bought hook) and Heat/Pacers Over 184 @ +258 (0.25 Units) - See Above....
2 Team, 5 Point Teaser - Heat -1.5 and Heat/Pacers Over 179 (0.70 Units) - See above.....
BOLComment -
Pacers 1st Qtr. +2 (0.50 Units) - Pacers have won the last 6 1st quarters outright against Miami, in Miami, and lost the 1st quarter 7 games ago by 1, covering this spread....Essentially 7-0 against this spread the last 7 games in the 1st qtr.....
Pacers 1st Qtr. ML (0.25 Units) - See above.....Comment -
Patty I see you played Pacers +3.5 first half last game, any reason your laying off it in this spot?Comment -
Last three bets before the game starts....will re-post all plays into one post before tip for organization, and may have a live bet if something sticks out.....
Pacers 1st Half Under 44 (0.40 Units) - Pacers are 9-4-1 in covering this 1st half under in the last three seasons when playing in Miami.
Heat Total Over 94.5 (0.40 Units) - Heat are 10-3 over the last three seasons covering this total against Indy, in Miami, and 8-1 in the last nine matchups.
Pacers 1st Half +3 (0.30 Units) - Smaller play here, but Pacers are 5-1-1 covering this total in Miami the last seven matchups....
BOLComment -
All plays tonight include:
Pacers 1st Qtr. +2 (0.50 Units)
Pacers 1st Qtr. ML (0.25 Units)
Pacers 1st Half Under 44 (0.40 Units)
Pacers 1st Half +3 (0.30 Units)
Heat ML @ -280 (0.70 Units)
Heat -6 (bought hook) (0.60 Units)
Heat/Pacers Over 184 (0.60 Units)
Parley Heat ML and Heat/Pacers Over 184 @ +165 (0.30 Units)
Parley Heat -6 (bought hook) and Heat/Pacers Over 184 @ +258 (0.25 Units)
2 Team, 5 Point Teaser - Heat -1.5 and Heat/Pacers Over 179 (0.70 Units)
Heat Total Over 94.5 (0.40 Units)
Risking 5 Units to win 4.79 Units....Last edited by Pattycakes0909; 05-26-14, 07:25 PM.Comment -
Thread Update: Another positive day, going 7-3-1 for a +2.30 Units....this brings the overall playoff record to 140-117-12 for a +15.63 Units overall....
1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 26-13-3 for a +6.05 Units
As is most nights, I feel there are some specific opportunities in tomorrow evening's game....I will post those plays throughout the day tomorrow as I have time....BOL to allComment -
First bets of the day:
Thunder -2 (bought hook) (0.70) Units) - It is not hidden knowledge....The Thunder have won 8 home games in a row against the Spurs by an average of 10.9 points per, and have not won by less than six points during this stretch...Although this seems like a good spot for a zig-zag play, as the Spurs are unreal after a loss this season, the eye test from last game does not support that theory, and I think the Thunder will take care of business at home again tonight.
Thunder/Spurs Under 208 (0.60 Units) - During this 8 game winning streak at home against the Spurs, only one time has the total gone over 208. Five of those eight games have not even gotten over 200.
Parley : Thunder -2 (bought hook) and Thunder/Spurs Under 208 @ +258 (0.25 Units) - See above...
2 Team, 5 Point Teaser : Thunder +2.5 and Thunder/Spurs Under 213 (0.60 Units) - See above....
A few first quarter and halftime plays will be coming....Comment -
Play for tomorrow I LOVE:
Heat/Pacers Under 184 (1.0 Units) - Four of the last five matchups between these two have been well Under this total when played in Indy, and typically games 5, 6, and 7 of a series tend to be more defensive, lower scoring....When these two teams met in the Playoffs last year, games 5, 6, and 7 totaled 169, 168, and 175....I fully expected to see this total open around 180-181.5, so we will definitely take this....BOLComment -
Adding to the bets above:
Spurs 1st Qtr. +1 (0.50 Units) - See below...
Spurs 1st Qtr. ML (0.25 Units) - Spurs have won outright all the first quarters so far this year in the reg. season and playoffs in OKCComment -
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Spurs Total Under 102 (0.30 Units) - Smaller play here, but the Spurs have not scored over 99 points in the last 6 trips to OKC.....Literally not cleared this mark since coming on 6/2/2012, almost two years ago, and they scored 103, still lost the game by six.....
Alternative Line :Thunder -10.5 @ +275 (0.25 Units) - Smaller play, but the last five times the Spurs have come to OKC, they lost by 14, 12, 6, 12, and 9.... In the game two nights ago, the Spurs hit a jumper with 1.5 seconds left to get that game to 9, otherwise the Thunder would have won by 11, clearing this mark for the 4th time in the last five games....It is worth the small play in my mind.Comment -
As I try and do most betting days, all plays posted from earlier, for today, will be posted in here, for organization.....
Spurs 1st Qtr. +1 (0.50 Units)
Spurs 1st Qtr. ML (0.25 Units)
Spurs Total Under 102 (0.30 Units)
Thunder -2 (bought hook) (0.70) Units)
Thunder/Spurs Under 208 (0.60 Units)
Alternative Line :Thunder -10.5 @ +275 (0.25 Units)
Parley : Thunder -2 (bought hook) and Thunder/Spurs Under 208 @ +258 (0.25 Units)
2 Team, 5 Point Teaser : Thunder +2.5 and Thunder/Spurs Under 213 (0.60 Units)
Risking 3.45 Units to win 4.01 Units
May have a live play I like, but most nights try to stick to my initial research and eye test....BOLLast edited by Pattycakes0909; 05-27-14, 08:00 PM.Comment -
Thread Update:
Another day in the black, going 6-2-0 for another +2.50 Units. This brings the overall playoff thread record to 146-119-12 for a total of +18.13 Units.
1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 32-15-3 for a +8.55 Units
I posted this play earlier, for tomorrow, but re-posting to make sure anybody following this get's on it before it moves in the wrong direction.
Heat/Pacers Under 184 (1.0 Units) - If you need an explanation go to post #401....I expect this total to drop to 182 by gametimeComment -
The line went up from 184 to 184.5. I agree with you on the under and I see that you're laying 1 unit so I'm assuming you're pretty confident in this compared your average unit plays of 0.5. Did you already put this ticket in ? I'm debating whether to wait or not
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I placed this bet yesterday afternoon at 1:30 PM....And yes, I am confident in this, but as is anything else in betting, nothing is for certain.....BOLComment -
Heat 1st Half -0.5 (0.70 Units) - Heat are 4-1-0 winning the first half outright when playing in Indy the last five trips there....This year, the Pacers only averaged to outscore opponents by 1.0 in the 1st half this year at home, while the Heat averaged a 2.3 point lead in the 1st half on the road....We are rolling with the Heat 1st halfComment -
Heat/Pacers 1st Half Under 90.5 (0.60 Units) - These teams are 4-1-0 in covering this under in the last 5 games in Indy between them....I expect game 5 to be a more defensive game, which should amount to lower totals.Comment -
Pacers 1st Qtr. +0.5 (0.50 Units) - See below....
Pacers 1st Qtr. ML (0.25 Units) - Pacers have won the last three first quarters outright against Miami when they are in Indy, and over the course of this season, either arena, regular season and playoffs, the Pacers are 6-2-0 in winning the first quarter outright against Miami....Comment -
Alternate Line: Heat/Pacers Under 176.5 @+195 (0.25 Units) - Smaller play, but this total has gone under in four of the last five meetings in Indy between these two teams. Worth a shot.
Will have a play or two more before tip that I like on the winner, but have to head out for work. BOL to all tonight.Comment -
2 Team, 5 Pt. Teaser - Pacers +7.5, Pacers/Heat Under 189 (0.60 Units)Comment -
Last two plays for the evening, unless I see something live....Will re-post all plays into one post about 10 minutes before tip.....
Pacers +2.5 (0.60 Units) - My research shows them pulling out a close game this evening. Now from the eye test, it is difficult to 100% support this as the Heat have just looked faster, better, stronger, etc. the last 3 games, but I am rolling with it.
Alternate Line: Pacers -6.5 @ +300 (0.25 Units) - I realize this is a long shot, but from a macro view of research, over the last three seasons, when these two teams meet in Indy, the Pacers have covered this spread in 8 of the 14 match-ups....In just the playoff matchups in Indy, they have covered this spread in 4 of the 8 games....Definite +EV play in my mindComment -
All plays tonight, for organization.
Pacers 1st Qtr. +0.5 (0.50 Units)
Pacers 1st Qtr. ML (0.25 Units)
Heat 1st Half -0.5 (0.70 Units)
Heat/Pacers 1st Half Under 90.5 (0.60 Units)
Pacers +2.5 (0.60 Units)
Heat/Pacers Under 184 (1.0 Units)
Alternate Line: Heat/Pacers Under 176.5 @+195 (0.25 Units)
Alternate Line: Pacers -6.5 @ +300 (0.25 Units)
2 Team, 5 Pt. Teaser - Pacers +7.5, Pacers/Heat Under 189 (0.60 Units)
Risking 4.75 Units to win 5.12 UnitsComment -
Jesus Crist.....Lance Stephenson is throwing "back to the basket, over his head" shots from the 3 point line, about 5 minutes to tip....Looks like 0% focus...Have to admit I am a bit concerned backing the Pacers after watching this....It could also be good for the Under though tooComment -
4-0 start thus far, which I am happy about, but I do not feel good about the Pacers covering spreads tonight on three of the other bets....After I saw Lance Stevenson practicing shots backwards 5 minutes before tip, that was a sign for a lack of true focus....seriously, in an elimination game....even if you say you want to "stay loose" before the game, you can't be practicing shots you would never take in this actual game....Like Chris Carter would say, "comm'on Man!".....Either way, the Under's look decent thus far, so we should be looking at another night in the black....
Last bet of the night:
Heat 2nd Half +2.5 (0.30 Units) - Smaller play, but hedging back partially against the teaser with Pacers +7.5 and total under 189 made earlier.....I cannot see the Heat getting outscored this half by a sloppy Indy team when Lebron, aka Man-Bear-Pig will be rested and ready to put this series away....as long as he does not get these ticky-tack fouls, which have never been called on him before in all my time watching the NBA
BOL to allComment -
Lebron with 5 fouls @ 8:15 left in 3rd....This is unheard of....Pacers covers may not be impossible after all!Comment -
Thread Update:
Another day in the black going 7-3-0 for another +3.02 Units....This brings the overall playoff thread to 153-122-12 for a total of +21.15 Units.
1st Round - 91-62-3 for a +20.38 Units
2nd Round - 23-41-7 for a -10.80 Units
3rd Round - 39-18-3 for a +11.57 Units
Looking forward to Game 5 for OKC @ Spurs tomorrow evening, and will post some plays throughout the day tomorrow. BOLComment
