Leans for Tuesday 3/10/09 Hoops Upside Your head

Chi_archie · 03-10-09, 12:45 AM

i'm on them

TodaysAction · 03-10-09, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Aww man.... Too much of the funky stuff....too much of the Jack, but look here..here's what it is. There is no free money in the NBA.

Indiana is on an 8-3 ats run. Why should I be the one to stop that? Utah is hot, yeah but they are also 2-3 ats in their last five games. Whatever I'll take the home dog that is 4-1 straight up and ats against the visitor. Indiana is 8-1 ats against teams with a winning record the 2nd half of the season.

Cleveland? C'mon..do you really need to ask?

Indiana +anything
Indiana moneyline

Cleveland-anything
Cleveland 1st quarter

Thanks baller.

cnleaf · 03-10-09, 12:50 AM

MIL OVER 221 today for me. (OVER is written all over it.)

pho3nix32 · 03-10-09, 12:50 AM

line: cha@sas 178
pick: 178 under

"Low scoring game" trends:

- The under for Charlotte is 26-18 as underdogs this season.
- The under for Charlotte is 22-14 when playing revenge games this season.
- The under for San Antonio is 16-9 against the east this season.
- The under for San Antonio is 19-13 against teams under 0.500 this season.
- The under for San Antonio is 7-1 against the southeast this season.
- Head to head, the under is 5-0 in the last 3 seasons.
- Head to head, the under is 2-0 in games played in San Antonio in the last 3 season.

Larry Brown vs. Greg Popovich. Enough said.

cocknocker · 03-10-09, 01:00 AM

Gonna carjack your pick Pho3nix. Just so you'll know....

pho3nix32 · 03-10-09, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Gonna carjack your pick Pho3nix. Just so you'll know....

perfect!

anthonydiamondLC · 03-10-09, 01:10 AM

Thats a good under pick with the cha/sa game. The trends play to the exact format in which how the coaches execute.

mb19 · 03-10-09, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Gonna carjack your pick Pho3nix. Just so you'll know....

So is everyone else on sbr. Pho3nix is the best capper around right now.

pho3nix32 · 03-10-09, 01:26 AM

Originally posted by mb19

So is everyone else on sbr. Pho3nix is the best capper around right now.

thanks for the compliment but i dont deserve being called "best"

i just want to kill the books everyday.

pho3nix32 · 03-10-09, 01:29 AM

i wonder if pau gasol opened a can of whoopass on ariza in the locker room after what ariza did to fernandez...

BmoreBucco · 03-10-09, 02:18 AM

Anyone else feel like Georgetown is gonna put it on the Redmen tomorrow? Or whatever they are now? I'm thinking the loss that basically solidified the NIT for the Hoyas is going to resonate. Yes, they are still the G-town Whores because they f'd more than one of us this season, which is why I'm asking someone to talk me out of this before I cement the play!

danrman · 03-10-09, 02:35 AM

early look leans knicks

W0lfy · 03-10-09, 02:55 AM

Originally posted by danrman

early look leans knicks

Why? The knicks do not match up well with the Bucks. Its not an accident they are 0-3 against them.. Yeah you can throw in the revenge factor or they are due for a win against the Bucks, but is that what you want to put your money on? I feel the Bucks sweep this series and actually continue to make their push into the playoffs.

stonebuddha · 03-10-09, 03:46 AM

hey everybody, wanted to introduce myself, as well as give thanks to the majority of the posters here for creating a cooperative, highly focused think-tank with one unifying goal. never thought i'd find a place like this.

i'm in new york city my first year out of college, paying back loans, hatin the man, and chasing a little sideline bread in the mean time. anyways i've no doubt cashed while tailing all of you at some point in the past month, and did alright with my own picks, so i figured i'd pitch in two cents here and there and continue to follow the productive discussion.

that said, i like the SA under 178 tomorrow as well, but being a lifelong spurs fan i have to say Pho hit it on the head with the Brown/Pop reference. these gentlemen are "friends" but i hate some of my friends. SA has regained focus like they always do in last 1/3 of season, going 4-1 SU and ATS at home since their 8 game roadtrip. Charlotte has been decent covering of late but i like Pop's chance to make this one personal. look out for that big ugly white dude chuckin up 3's, too. feeling good about Spurs -6 but want to hear what everybody thinks. oh and what up from across the East river, Dex.

peterpan19 · 03-10-09, 06:18 AM

puh...
tough day teaser lost, fu**in NO team, couldnt you at least loose a close one ??
wtf happend to Mia in the 4th qtr ??, damn it
1-3 yesterday, but today is a bounce back day...

Ind +3, one day the winning streak has to end and what perfect day would it be to loose against an Indiana team that is power horse at home as of late ... they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home as of late ... add in that they are 5-1 ATS and SU against Uta at home ... this is a team that Utah always has problems with ... give me the home dog in that one

NYK +3.5 ... this is not a reasonable play here, everything points against the knicks in that one ... they already played Mil 3 times this season and they always lost big ... only fishy is that they are only a 3.5 underdog in that one ... ok Bogut is out for Mil ... but Ny just plays no D so no matter who you have on Offense you will score ... only trend in favor of NY is that they are 5-2 ATS in Mil and that they always played them close b4 this season ... but not this year ... so Ny shouldnt win this one and they also shouldnt cover ... but hey thats exactly the spot when they will cover ...

Char +6 .... this team is hot 11-3 ATS and 9-5 SU ... but they face a hot SA team 13-5 ATS and 12-6 SU ... but the one thing that you have to keep in mind here is that SA plays the Lakers at home on thursday on national TV and they will look ahead for sure ... bc they know that they own them as they are 8-1 SU against Char ... i dont say that Char will win this one but they will keep it close and get us the cover here for sure...

Pho -4 ... coming of an ugly road trip and now they face a Dallas squad that is horrible on the road as of late ... 0-5 SU and ATS ... add in that Dallas holds the no. 8 seed right now, Pho needs that win badly as they are already 4 games behind them, they will play some great ball ... I know they can, they played great in the 2nd half on Sunday, they played good in Hou and Mia too, not great, they will get the job done for sure ... GO SUNS .. and they wont look ahead to that Cleveland game, bc they need everyone now that they can get ...

Cle - whatever (thinking about 8-10 here depending on the injuries the Clippers have) .... 5-0 ATS and SU ...
this one could get ugly ... i dont know if I would play the whole game, bc they could rest some players for that thursday against Pho ... but 1st qtr and 1st half look pretty solid ... and that even without looking at the stats ... but I will do it anyway ... Cle has a 7.9 pt advantage in the 1st qtr (37 % advantage in 1st qtr wins) and for the half Cle holds an edge of 11.1 pts ...

so we have for today:
Ind
NYK
Char
Pho
CLE

I would say way too many games to start with .... mhhh..... will cut it down to 2-3 games I play straight up and the rest goes into a 3 team 7 point teaser ... see you later guys

GL today

wangichu · 03-10-09, 06:50 AM

... wow, are they seriously going to throw points at Indiana to host the jazz. Looks like i have to end my hiatus a little earlier than i expected. I just can't let the books get away with that. The whole world will be on the jazz because the betting public forgets just how good indy is at home and how bad the jazz are on the road when the jazz rattle off a little winning streak like they have. Head to head is about even. Jazz swept two years ago, but before that indy was the dominant party. I was kinda suprised by how much success they've had in utah even. Don't really need to belabor a point. All i really need to say is. lakers, celtics, cavs, magic, Nuggets. What do they all have in common? Division leaders who have suffered losses during their visits to indy (granted denver isn't a div leader at the moment, but once the jazz fall, the theme will persevere).

IND +1 or more if the books are sweethearts/ML (LARGE)

i know boston lost at LAC, but seriously, i can't fathom lebron letting that happen. looks like CK is with me here so i won't belabour the issue, just have to trust the second best player in the game at a time like this not to let his team go the way of the C's (KG wouldn't have let that happen either).

Kinda like the under in the SA/CHAR game, but may not get too crazy

come up on a lot of money outside of the capping realm, so i think i may just let this be the rebirth of hustle time. No more BS, just money. let's do this gentlemen

Dexter · 03-10-09, 06:58 AM

3/10 - Tue

the pacers seem to get up for the best teams in the league at conseco, and i wouldnt be surprised to see them end the jazz's win streak in this spot. indy has beaten the celts, lakers, cavs and magic at home. this is a talented offensive team that seems to rise up to the competiton. this is a revenge game as well for the pacers who have won 3 of the last 4 games at home to utah. projected line of +4.5.

-pacers
______________
the suns are back home after a 4 game road trip, and while i would like to play the mavs here, they have just been brutal on the road lately. instead im going to jump back on the suns overs with a favorable schedule here in march with lots of home games over the next few weeks.

-over suns (big)

Dexter · 03-10-09, 06:58 AM

wang - i was with you large on the pacers, but im pretty sure granger was playing in all of the other huge home upsets. do you know granger is out?

Dexter · 03-10-09, 07:09 AM

ok, i just looked up the 4 home games in which the pacers upset the heavyweights boston, la, orl and cleav - in all 4 games danny granger played. for that reason, i just cant go larger then 1x on indiana tonight. i know this is prob the wrong move, but im trying to build my roll back up right now and dont feel as comfortable w/o granger. like i said last night, this is one of my weaknesses, as most of the time when a team plays w/o their star, they do just fine. as ck has mentioned many times, other guys step up to prove themselves and get the job done anyway with a better line. the pacers should be getting about 5.5 now.

Dexter · 03-10-09, 07:41 AM

sucks for the B bet - the hornets are 0-4 su the last 4 games in wash.

JohnMorr08 · 03-10-09, 07:52 AM

Congrats to the Portland backers last night ! I had a feeling about that game and boy was I way off....

repski · 03-10-09, 08:17 AM

Phoenix and over

Dallas has lost five straight road games both SU and ATS, The Suns, return home after a winless four-game trip of their own.

Dallas used a big fourth quarter to beat the Wizards 119-103 as a 12.5-point home fav Saturday. Dallas has been a disaster on the highway recently, getting outscored 100-85 during their five-game SU and ATS road losing streak, scoring 87, 86, 76, 87 and 88 points against the Jazz, Rockets, Spurs, Thunder and Hornets.

Phoenix battled back from a double-digit halftime deficit at San Antonio on Sunday, but still came up short 103-98 as a 4½-point road underdog. The Suns have won seven of their last eight at home (6-1-1 ATS), including the last three in a row SU and ATS.
The winner is 25-1-2 ATS in the Suns’ last 28 games, including 12-1-1 ATS in its last 14 at home.

The host has won five of the last six meetings (4-1-1 ATS), and the winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 battles. Also in this rivalry, the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS In the last six and Phoenix is 5-2-1 ATS in the last seven.

The Mavs are 0-5 ATS five straight road games, the Mavs are 1-4 ATS against the Western Conference and 1-6 ATS after a SU win, and they’ve gone 16 straight games without covering in back-to-back contests.

Phoenix is 6-1-1 ATS at home, and 4-1 ATS after a non-cover.

The over is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these squads (2-0 this year), and 4 of the last 5 at Phoenix have gone over.
The over is 5-2 ATS for Dallas overall, 9-4 ATS for Phoenix overall, 4-2 ATS for Phoenix at home and 5-2 ATS for Phoenix against the Western Conference.

peterpan19 · 03-10-09, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

sucks for the B bet - the hornets are 0-4 su the last 4 games in wash.

1-7 ATS and SU to make it worse....

repski
I like Pho a lot today too...

Odraca · 03-10-09, 08:20 AM

Im sorry but I have to go with Utah tonight.

the public has to win once in a while.

I also like Cinci -5.5(B2.5)
and E.mich +5.5(B2.5)
for these early college games.

and im gonna tail PHO and some of the other good plays tonight as well.

repski · 03-10-09, 08:27 AM

ND/Rutgers under

-The under is 11 of the last 12 ATS for Rutgers overall, The under is 6-0 for Rutgers after a non-cover, -The under is 4 of the last 4 ATS for Notre Dame overall, 4-0 for Notre Dame after a SU win and 4-1 for Notre Dame after a spread-cover.
-The last two series meetings stayed under the total.

Trends in Rutgers favor:
-Scarlet Knights are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
-Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Notre Dame the last two years have been absolutely the worst team in college basketball against the spread when leaving South Bend, IN. Notre Dame will win but just as they have done all year they can't cover large spreads due to the poor defense they play.

peterpan19 · 03-10-09, 08:47 AM

early cbb game, I dont play CBB very often but i like that one
Cinci -4.5 1H, just too good to pass on, in conference play they are pretty damn good in the first half against the bottom teams like St Johns, Depaul, South Florida or Seton ... most of the time they come out very hot and destroy them in the 1st half, only to let down in the 2nd and loose or make it a close game ... anyway I will take em for the 1st half and if they loose the 1st half I am gonna take em again in the 2H, if they win but not cover its probably a no play for me ...

But honestly I just cant see how Depaul can hang with them in the 1H ... its not a lock but I think its the best play on the early games at least from what I can see....

Dexter · 03-10-09, 08:48 AM

wed 3/11-

the knicks will be on a btb, and thats enough for me to continue playing the red-hot pistons post AI.

-pistons (big)
_________________
the thunder will be up against it on wed having to face the nuggets on a btb in the high altitude. denver needs this game badly off of 3 straight losses. last year they dropped 168 pts at home on the thunder and are 3-1 su/ats the last 4 home games vs OKC winning 3 of those games by 28ppg.

-nuggets (big)
_______________
the nets travel to oak looking to avenge an early season home loss to the warriors. nj is 4-1 ats the last 5 games at gs, winning 2 of those game su, and losing the other 3 by 2ppg. the warriors will also be first home off a 4 game east coast trip.

-nets

peterpan19 · 03-10-09, 09:03 AM

one game for wednesday I like so far:

Magic - they are 11-5 ATS after a loss this season ... I think the trend will continue and they will put the wood on a Bulls team that went to double OT on monday and was lucky as hell that Mia collapsed in the 4th qtr ... otherwise this would have been a blowout ... add in that Orl has revenge on their minds after that 18 pt loss in Chi in Feb ... projected line -7 ... Go Orlando

Por - whatever ... Dallas on b2b games ... revenge game for Portland

dexter
well that piston game is a nice one too ... waiting for the line on that one ... best thing that can happen they win tonight and det becomes a big play for me too...

AdaBarber · 03-10-09, 09:37 AM

College Tourney Time

Good Morning Mafia. CK, Dex, TA, Pho3nix, and all those I have forgotten. I have been getting better with the capping so I am going to list my picks for anyone to consider or provide their commentary. I have been putting a lot of work into these picks. And I like the satisfaction of hitting what I worked on. Since Saturday I am up 8 units. And I have been doing the money management thing. Well, I was a little tipsy last night and parlayed the Gonzaga over with Portland and Houston. Not good money management but after checking my account I can't complain. LOL

Booked:
A Bets (Biggest)
Cincy-8
Notre Dame-10.5
Seton Hall-5.5
Kent-12
Akron-12.5
Weber St-12

B Bets (Big)
Butler-6
Portland St-6
St. Johns+5.5
Eastern Mich+2.5

These are leans if I need to play catch up.
Princeton+3
Ohio-4
Fresno St PK

Best of Luck to all this wonderful day. Nothing like early games to watch the money pile up!

Dexter · 03-10-09, 09:40 AM

wed-

the nets travel to oak looking to avenge an early season home loss to the warriors. nj is 4-1 ats the last 5 games at gs, winning 2 of those game su, and losing the other 3 by 2ppg. the warriors will also be first home off a 4 game east coast trip.

-nets

peterpan19 · 03-10-09, 09:50 AM

lines are out
Ind +3.5 (right on where I expected it to be)
Pho -7 (mhh... a little bit high)
Cle -9 (ok sounds good, 1H probably around -5 and 1st qtr -3 )
dropping the NYK, but hey its the Nicks...

so far:
Char +6 (booked)
Ind +3.5 (maybe more, public will be all over utah)
Pho -7 (lets hope some early money is on Dal to bring it down a bit)
Cle -9, 1H and 1st qtr for me ... late night money making machine ....

3 team 7 pt teaser: ind +10.5, Pho pk, Char +13 ... looks good (booked)

edit: booked the teaser
nothing booked yet, besides Cinci -4.5 1H

edit:
Cle already upto -10, no surprise here
and Char dropped a whole point to +5 ??
Pho down to -6.5 ... I like it

repski · 03-10-09, 10:13 AM

St. John's / Georgetown Under 122.5

St. Johns is riding a 9-3 UNDER the mark @ home. They gave G'town all they could handle a week ago in a 59-55 Overtime Win, a game that had just 102 points in regulation. That contest was the fifth time in a row that a Georgetown/St John game wentd below the posted total. Recentlythe Hoyas have not scored into the 60's their last 4 times on a court. St.Johs has not gone over 60 in the last 3 of 4 times on a court. Both teams would rather play halfcourt style of play.

solobass · 03-10-09, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

wed 3/11-

the knicks will be on a btb, and thats enough for me to continue playing the red-hot pistons post AI.

-pistons (big)
_________________
the thunder will be up against it on wed having to face the nuggets on a btb in the high altitude. denver needs this game badly off of 3 straight losses. last year they dropped 168 pts at home on the thunder and are 3-1 su/ats the last 4 home games vs OKC winning 3 of those games by 28ppg.

-nuggets (big)
_______________
the nets travel to oak looking to avenge an early season home loss to the warriors. nj is 4-1 ats the last 5 games at gs, winning 2 of those game su, and losing the other 3 by 2ppg. the warriors will also be first home off a 4 game east coast trip.

-nets

i might be the last one on the pistons bandwagon, they cost me some coin last night.

Dexter · 03-10-09, 10:59 AM

booked-

over suns 231 (big)
pacers +3.5