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Leans for Friday 3/6/09

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  • peterpan19
    Restricted User
    • 11-02-08
    • 3377

    #36
    Originally posted by mb19
    I think there are a few good games to do a teaser on.

    Spurs -14
    Utah -9
    Orlando -9

    I know my book allows 7 point teasers for three teams, I'll probably book one with these.

    I had an insanely bad Tuesday, as I think most people in this thread did, trying to make back what I lost yesterday and tonight.
    I think you should add Det, spread will probably (it is) be around -9 too and they just play great ball now with AI out, superb ...
    Comment
    • peterpan19
      Restricted User
      • 11-02-08
      • 3377

      #37
      plays today:
      Tor +1 (will lock in b4 gametime)
      Char -2 (as soon as I know Raja will play for sure)
      Orl -9 (just love the Magic here)

      later: Utah -9 (if the early games go well)

      teaser 7pt:
      Utah-2, Orl -2, Det -2 (locked in)

      ok 4 or 5 plays for today, not so bad looking
      Comment
      • handimann
        SBR High Roller
        • 02-04-09
        • 102

        #38
        PHO +5.5

        i'm back with my take on the suns game of the night. suns are angry after losing a few close ones in florida, one of which they should have won. it is the big diesel's birthday so he is definitely going to have a big game and like CK said, shaq doesn't like yao. nash is healthy and the suns want to prove themselves against a solid team as they haven't really done so since the all-star break except for the revenge game against the lakers. a play on the +200 ML is a possibility.
        Comment
        • alittlemoresound
          SBR Sharp
          • 12-14-08
          • 472

          #39
          ORL
          SA
          LAK
          TOR
          DET
          PHON <------ ML & points biggest play of the night
          chic
          DEN <----- i think denver might even upset the jazz at home something like 103-99 or so. denver had it together yesterday and i think the suspen. served melow well. rememeber denver dropped a shit load of games. Its time for them to be on the upswing now.
          Comment
          • alittlemoresound
            SBR Sharp
            • 12-14-08
            • 472

            #40
            everyone should tease minnesota right b4 game time with PHON SA and ORL

            5 point teaser

            MIN
            PHON
            SA
            ORL
            Comment
            • AussieDave
              SBR Rookie
              • 03-04-09
              • 48

              #41
              my action

              $100 allup Head to Head
              magic 1.20
              bulls 1.40
              rockets 1.33
              to return $223

              $51 @ 3.45
              magic (-8.5) and match under 203.5
              to return $176 (trailing CK, I agree)

              $100 all up
              magic v nets under 203.5 (trailing again)
              suns v rockets under 224.5
              to return $369

              all thoughts appreciated, new to forum and sports bets

              thanx foryour welcome peetlui

              Cheers

              AD
              Comment
              • mb19
                SBR High Roller
                • 01-18-09
                • 111

                #42
                Originally posted by peterpan19
                I think you should add Det, spread will probably (it is) be around -9 too and they just play great ball now with AI out, superb ...
                The Jazz are the only ones I am worried about so I may do a pick with Det subbed in or maybe Lakers. 16 is too much for the way LA is playing of late. There is a reason why they were going hard after some of the recently cut PFs.

                I think there is a lot of value in some moneyline parlays tonight.
                Comment
                • Dexter
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-24-08
                  • 25829

                  #43
                  booked-

                  raptors +1
                  cavs +2
                  pistons -8 (big)
                  spurs -13.5 (big)
                  jazz -9 (big)
                  Comment
                  • BrandonLaz
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-18-08
                    • 855

                    #44
                    Originally posted by Dexter
                    booked-

                    raptors +1
                    cavs +2
                    pistons -8 (big)
                    spurs -13.5 (big)
                    jazz -9 (big)
                    I like the Pistons pick I can't pull the trigger on that large of a spread with the Pistons though especially not with it being a B play.
                    Comment
                    • repski
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-01-09
                      • 1929

                      #45
                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                      Of course today there is a JM play ad of course I will be taking it, but there are some juicy games on tap for today, and I have staked out a couple to wager some money on!



                      For some reason I get the feeling that Shaq justdoesn'tlike Yao, as it is as if the lights turn on whenever he faces off against him. Throw in the fact that Phoenix plays well in Houston and more tan comfortable going 3-2 straight up and 4-1 ats in games in Houston. The Rockets will be playing their 4th game in 5 days. And while they are a very deep team that still cannot bode well for them especially when Phoenix is in a great position to get the win. The Rockets are 3-0 ats in their last 3 games, and Phoenix has lost their last two games straight up.I expect for the Suns to give an all out effort tonight and leave it all on the floor, and cover the ignorant amount of points being given to them by the linemaker,

                      Phoenix+6.5 or more by gametime




                      Okay ladies and gentlemen, there's mine now show me yours!
                      CK, love the other picks but I read this in an article which seems to counter your argument that Shaq turns the lights on against Yao...

                      "Rockets have been the hottest team in the league behind the Utah Jazz since the All-star Break. Yao will be up for this one and get his eight straight win against Oneal."



                      Comment
                      • cocknocker
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-06-08
                        • 8001

                        #46
                        I don't like the Pistons pick as I capped this game out to Detroit-2.5. The Warriors simply have too many players that can create their own shot off the dribble for the Pistons. Teams like the Warriors are stocked with active bodies. It doesn't hurt that they are on my list of Good Doggies as well. Don Nelson will coach em up as always despite the absence of Biedrins tonight. I look for this one to be a high scoring affair however, due to the lack of an inside defensive presence for the Warriors. If the Pistons decide and that's a big IF to probe the middle of the paint, they should be able to call their own shot and control the boards, although the Warriors shoot a lot of three point shots, so the rebounds don't always in the usual places.

                        Even if this weren't a system play I wold have ladly taken the Warriors at +9. The fact that I have them +12 is even better.
                        Comment
                        • mb19
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 01-18-09
                          • 111

                          #47
                          Yao has played pretty well against shaq during is time in the nba. There is no doubt playing against shaq is bigger for yao then the other way around; just watch Year of the Yao. Plus with all that has gone on with shaq this week, he hasnt thought about this game until probably today.
                          Comment
                          • peterpan19
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-02-08
                            • 3377

                            #48
                            ck
                            what does styles think about the Bobcats tonight ?

                            I actually like that 7 pt teser I made eraly on a lot: Orl -2, Det -2 and utah -2

                            locked in:
                            Orl -8 (2x)
                            Char -2

                            waiting on the Tor and uta game right now
                            Comment
                            • Dexter
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-24-08
                              • 25829

                              #49
                              its friday, and as promised i will revisit the world of cbb and the ivy league nerds who paid me with a 2-0 last fri. small plays for fun. stay tuned.

                              I'll use this as a "big board" but will also make individual posts as plays come in before tip.
                              ____________________

                              Plays-

                              n. iowa -7
                              bradley -2.5
                              nc greensboro +12
                              elon +5.5
                              brown pk
                              dartmouth +8.5
                              austin peay +2.5
                              Comment
                              • handimann
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 02-04-09
                                • 102

                                #50
                                Originally posted by pho3nix32
                                line: njn@om 203
                                pick: 203 under

                                Trends:

                                - The under for New Jersey is 10-6 after scoring 105 or more in the previous game this season.
                                - The under for Orlando is 15-10 after scoring 105 or more in the previous game this season.
                                - The under for Orlando is 8-3 after 2 days rest this season.
                                - The under for Orlando is 18-11 at home this season.
                                - The under for Orlando is 27-20 as favorites this season.
                                - Head to head, the under is 7-2 in meetings in the last 3 seasons.
                                - Head to head, the under is 4-1 in meetings in Orlando for the last 3 seasons.

                                Keys to an under total:

                                1. Quoting CK, "The Nets will be playing their 4th game in 5 days". No legs on outside shots = bricks.
                                2. Superman.
                                3. Orlando gives up only 90 ppg at home. New Jersey gives up 100 ppg on the road. You guys do the math here.
                                this is great phoenix. i am definitely playing this as well. line's moved from 203 to 201 and 200 in a few books. what do you think about the suns/rockets game? and about amare being out for the playoffs?? devastating news..
                                Comment
                                • cocknocker
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 11-06-08
                                  • 8001

                                  #51
                                  When Shaq played for the Lakers and the Heat, he made it a big issue that Yao was getting all of the press that he was getting. He has calmed the talk of late, but when he wore the Purple and Gold, he would go right at Yao in the paint. Of course, Shaq is a bit older now and his skills have diminished a tad, so now Yao is clearly the more productive player on a nightly basis. Yao will get his because Shaq is horrid on pick and roll defense, but Shaq will more than hold his own tonight and cancel out any advantage that Yao may have in terms of the scorebox. Nash is a two time MVP facing inferior competition. Houston doesn't really have the guard position talent to match up with Nash and Richardson. With their uptempo offense the Suns may bait the Rockets into a shootout. A lot of people on the board like the under, but Phoenix will be playing with a sense of urgency tonight, and usually that translates into points
                                  Comment
                                  • cocknocker
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-06-08
                                    • 8001

                                    #52
                                    peterpan19,

                                    She likes the rested Bobcats moneyline. The Hawks are playing their 4th game in 5 nights. She also points to the Bobcats 4-1 straight up and ats record at home against the Hawks.
                                    Comment
                                    • cocknocker
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 11-06-08
                                      • 8001

                                      #53
                                      Dexter, in the Ivy League, Yale-8 is the correct call.
                                      Comment
                                      • Dexter
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-24-08
                                        • 25829

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by cocknocker
                                        peterpan19,

                                        She likes the rested Bobcats moneyline. The Hawks are playing their 4th game in 5 nights. She also points to the Bobcats 4-1 straight up and ats record at home against the Hawks.
                                        recheck that calendar sir - you know i would have been all over charl had it been 4/5
                                        Comment
                                        • Dexter
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 12-24-08
                                          • 25829

                                          #55
                                          ck - whats your read the utah/den?
                                          Comment
                                          • cocknocker
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 11-06-08
                                            • 8001

                                            #56
                                            Also adding

                                            Toronto (PK) 1st quarter -105
                                            Yale-5 1st half
                                            Comment
                                            • ram1502
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 12-26-08
                                              • 822

                                              #57
                                              CK, I know you don't follow line movements quite as diligently as BigMoneyMan all the time, but does the line movement (or lack thereof) for the Magic not worry you a little? There was apparently a large amount of early money on the Nets laid down as the line dropped a full point from -10 to -9 within the first few hours after it was released. That, in itself, doesn't worry me, but the fact that there is now 85% of the public betting on the Magic and the line is rock solid at -9 does give me a few qualms. Maybe I'm looking too far into the line movement, but the fact that this line hasn't moved back up to 9.5 or 10 (which it might by gametime) tells me alot about what the books think will happen tonight in Orlando.
                                              Comment
                                              • repski
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-01-09
                                                • 1929

                                                #58
                                                put a few bones on GA ST.....+2.5
                                                Comment
                                                • MexicanStallion
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 09-08-08
                                                  • 20429

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by ram1502
                                                  CK, I know you don't follow line movements quite as diligently as BigMoneyMan all the time, but does the line movement (or lack thereof) for the Magic not worry you a little? There was apparently a large amount of early money on the Nets laid down as the line dropped a full point from -10 to -9 within the first few hours after it was released. That, in itself, doesn't worry me, but the fact that there is now 85% of the public betting on the Magic and the line is rock solid at -9 does give me a few qualms. Maybe I'm looking too far into the line movement, but the fact that this line hasn't moved back up to 9.5 or 10 (which it might by gametime) tells me alot about what the books think will happen tonight in Orlando.
                                                  Whats a good website for seeing how much money is on the teams?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • AussieDave
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 03-04-09
                                                    • 48

                                                    #60
                                                    Guy's and gal's

                                                    I like the look of

                                                    Jazz & Nuggets under 210.5

                                                    Wizards & Spurs over 187.5

                                                    any thoughts

                                                    Cheers

                                                    AD
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Pensinger1
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 12-23-08
                                                      • 505

                                                      #61
                                                      Wizzards are taking some huge coin at the moment.

                                                      With 40% backing WASH, spread dropped from +13.5 to +12.5.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ram1502
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 12-26-08
                                                        • 822

                                                        #62
                                                        "
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dexter
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-24-08
                                                          • 25829

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by MexicanStallion
                                                          Whats a good website for seeing how much money is on the teams?
                                                          % of public bets, use - thespread.com

                                                          money coming in - just look at the line movements here on sbr.

                                                          i use scoresandodds.com for my opening lines.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • cocknocker
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 11-06-08
                                                            • 8001

                                                            #64
                                                            Utah/Denver is summed up like this. The Nuggets are 3-6 ats their last 9 and the Jazz are red hot with a 7-2 ats run and 9-0 straight up. Throw in that Denver is 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ats and you have what looks like a Utah cover, with one slight issue. Denver is also a high altitude team so the effect that the altitude has on other opponents when they visit Salt Lake doesn't happen with Denver. But the back to back situation may hurt Denver a little playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight, and also having won a nationally televised game last night doesn't help either. My take is to take the Jazz, and get under the key number some kind of way. The 9 is a little too high in my opinion, but I do see them winning a 7 point spread with an 8 point win.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Dexter
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 12-24-08
                                                              • 25829

                                                              #65
                                                              "
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ram1502
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 12-26-08
                                                                • 822

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by Pensinger1
                                                                Wizzards are taking some huge coin at the moment.

                                                                With 40% backing WASH, spread dropped from +13.5 to +12.5.
                                                                Where do you see only 40% backing the Wizards. I see over 80%. I'm guessing someone just got some inside information on Caron Butler's status for tonight's game.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dexter
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                                  • 25829

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by Pensinger1
                                                                  Wizzards are taking some huge coin at the moment.

                                                                  With 40% backing WASH, spread dropped from +13.5 to +12.5.
                                                                  news of butler may have leaked. i havent seen anything yet, but be careful looking at RLM when a star player is questionable.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Dexter
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 12-24-08
                                                                    • 25829

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Originally posted by ram1502
                                                                    Where do you see only 40% backing the Wizards. I see over 80%. I'm guessing someone just got some inside information on Caron Butler's status for tonight's game.
                                                                    NBA National Basketball Association Public Betting Information from Several Top Online Sports Books. See Who The Public is Betting.


                                                                    *this is more accurate ram - use this site
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cocknocker
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                                      • 8001

                                                                      #69
                                                                      ram1502,

                                                                      Don't worry.It'll get done by the Magic. The lack of line movement reminds me of what the linemakers do with the Cavs games. They always tinker with their lines or leave them alone even when 90% are on them and so on. Then the Cavs come out and blow away the competition. The Cavs tonight however is the wrong call. Boston will get it done..the Boston moneyline is by far the best soultion for that game.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • cocknocker
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 11-06-08
                                                                        • 8001

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Parlay time! If it hits GREAT, if not, so what!

                                                                        Orlando-9
                                                                        Bobcats moneyline (the Missus pick)
                                                                        Raptors+1
                                                                        Boston moneyline
                                                                        Phoenix+6
                                                                        San Antonio-12.5
                                                                        Warriors+9

                                                                        $15.00 to win hella money
                                                                        Comment
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