Leans for Friday 3/6/09

[cocknocker]

Of course today there is a JM play ad of course I will be taking it, but there are some juicy games on tap for today, and I have staked out a couple to wager some money on!

Orlando is all set to play the red hot New Jersey Nets who are 5-0 ats in their last 5 games and cashing plenty of tickets for their backers. Now comes the buzz saw about to eradicate all of ther hard work. The last time these teams met the magic absolutely obliterated theNets 101-84 in agame that wasn't even as close as the final score. Obviously there is a huge mismatch for the Magic at the center position, and there's nothing that anyone can do about it. The Nets will be playing their 4th game in 5 days with a little travel involved, so I fully expect for the Magic to tear a patch out of their asses as usual in Olando where the Magic are 4-1 straight up and ats against the Nets.

Orlando-8 (1 point buy)

I don't know what the spread will be when the Wizzles meet up with the Spurs, but whatever it is it will not be enough. The SPurs pretty much own this team going 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ats in games in the lone star state. This game will get ugly as the Spurs (1-3 ats last 4) are in dir need of a victory and the Wizzleskins )(1-4-1 and 0-3 straight up last 3) are just in the way. it really is just that simple. Pound it early as the line will get out of control late. I suggest to buy as many points as you can stand on this one, because the spread may end up being around 15 or so.

San Antonio-12 (hook buy)

For some reason I get the feeling that Shaq justdoesn'tlike Yao, as it is as if the lights turn on whenever he faces off against him. Throw in the fact that Phoenix plays well in Houston and more tan comfortable going 3-2 straight up and 4-1 ats in games in Houston. The Rockets will be playing their 4th game in 5 days. And while they are a very deep team that still cannot bode well for them especially when Phoenix is in a great position to get the win. The Rockets are 3-0 ats in their last 3 games, and Phoenix has lost their last two games straight up.I expect for the Suns to give an all out effort tonight and leave it all on the floor, and cover the ignorant amount of points being given to them by the linemaker,

Phoenix+6.5 or more by gametime

ALSO ADDED PLAY Toronto (PK) 1st quarter
ALSO ADDED PLAY Lakers-3 3rd quarter
ALSO ADDED PLAY Utah-5.5 3rd quarter

CBB

Yale-8
Yale -5 1st half
Tennessee-Martin-3.5 2nd half (added play)




Okay ladies and gentlemen, there's mine now show me yours!

[nonsense48]

agreed on the magic already booked-9 and i love the suns getting pts in this situation. good luck my friend. also waiting for the 1stq and 1st 1/2 lines to post on the magic. should be -2.5 and -5 if so i'm jumpin' on it.

[nonsense48]

good nite and good luck all

[Odraca]

I like miami -1 even though they are young and on road

[cnleaf]

TOR 1st Q for me if it gets number or pk. TOR just owns MIA.
Key point: 1. TOR are dying for a win after three road skid.
2. TOR good first quarter record.
3. The first two meeting TOR won both first quarter.

Just a little info for everyone. Need more research for other games now. Wish everyone GL today.

[pho3nix32]

line: njn@om 203
pick: 203 under

Trends:

- The under for New Jersey is 10-6 after scoring 105 or more in the previous game this season.
- The under for Orlando is 15-10 after scoring 105 or more in the previous game this season.
- The under for Orlando is 8-3 after 2 days rest this season.
- The under for Orlando is 18-11 at home this season.
- The under for Orlando is 27-20 as favorites this season.
- Head to head, the under is 7-2 in meetings in the last 3 seasons.
- Head to head, the under is 4-1 in meetings in Orlando for the last 3 seasons.

Keys to an under total:

1. Quoting CK, "The Nets will be playing their 4th game in 5 days". No legs on outside shots = bricks.
2. Superman.
3. Orlando gives up only 90 ppg at home. New Jersey gives up 100 ppg on the road. You guys do the math here.

[BrandonLaz]

Phoenix I am glad to see you are on that under as well. That was already starting to look like my strongest play tomorrow even before your post

[pho3nix32]

Phoenix I am glad to see you are on that under as well. That was already starting to look like my strongest play tomorrow even before your post

hopefully the magic routs the nets tomorrow then we can get an under total. biggest weapon of the nets is harris' speed. harris will be able to have the first step on alston but superman will be waiting for him

[peetlui]

Great pick Pho3nix, with the average total in the last 5 meetings between these two at 183.8, a total of 203 seems almost too good to be true. Definitely gonna jump on this.

[The_Kid]

Andris Biedrins, who left the team to deal with family matters, is unlikely to rejoin the Warriors for the rest of their road trip concluding Saturday against the Bucks.

Biedrins was supposed to sit on Friday against the Pistons, so this just serves to extend his absence. The same report mentioned that the NBA league office has no problem with Nellie sitting veterans, but the same can't be said for the rest of us. Mar. 5 - 8:36 pm et
Source: San Francisco Chronicle

Kevin Durant (ankle) was able to do some pregame shooting and is no longer wearing a protective boot, but he remains doubtful for this weekend and his return is reportedly 7-10 days away.

Jeff Green is also said to be 7-10 days away from returning from his back injury, and though he and Durant are both eager to get back on the court, the team is clearly exercising caution with its young forwards. Mar. 5 - 11:02 am et
Source: The Oklahoman

[nonsense48]

teasedorl-5/cle+6
teasedorl-5/pho+10.5

[The_Kid]

Depending on the health of Raja Bell, I am liking the Bobcats to get it done against the Atlanta Hawks. Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings at home vs the Hawks. Charlotte has been playing some great ball lately (4-1 ATS and 4-1 SU) and I admit, I have probably undervalued their talent. Coach Brown is a great coach and he has them playing for a playoff spot in the East. I will take the small chalk at -1.5 here and lay it on the home team to get it done.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings when the Bulls and Bucks have met and it is 4-0 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago. Average totals in the last 5 meetings have been set around 203 while the scores have averaged a total of 224 points. One meeting actually had the Bulls score 151 while the Bucks put up 135. Wow! I'll take the OVER 206 tomorrow.

[barackobama]

For today...

NJN+9.5@ORL LINE: 203
MIA@TOR (PK) LINE: 204
ATL+2.5@CHA LINE: 185.5
CLE+2@BOS LINE: 184
GSW+9.5@DET LINE: 203
MIL+6.5@CHI LINE: 206
PHX+6.5@HOU LINE: 226
MIN+15.5@LAL LINE: 215.5
DEN+9@UTA LINE: 211

PICKS: ORL, TOR, CHA, CLE, DET, CHI, HOU, MIN, DEN, ORLNJN UNDER, CLEBOS UNDER, MILCHI OVER

ORL. Just like what CK said, ORL will take advantage of NJN since they've had 4 games in 5 nights, and this doesn't look good for them since they're on the road now.

TOR. Miami has sort of struggled against Toronto this season, and its about time Toronto wins in their home court.

CHA. Charlotte has been one hot team, and they look to win 5 straight tomorrow against the Hawks who are somewhat struggling on the road. Raja Bell may not play, but I still think CHA will grab the win here. (If Raja Bell does play, he'd probably shut down Joe Johnson with his defense )

CLE. Boston has been struggilng to find their rhythm without KG. Cleveland on the other hand has been winning and winning, and I don't think their streak is gonna end here. CLE would be looking to prove a point by defeating the defending champs to fully boost their confidence.

DET. With a lot of injuries bugging Golden State, and Coach Don Nelson benching his starters, DET looks to take advantage of this. They are playing so well as of late without Allen Iverson. With Rip Hamilton back in the starting lineup, he has been lighting it up for the Pistons who look to improve their record and winning streak after some struggle.

CHI. A battle for 8th Place. Chicago looks to take this one seriously. Chicago has been HOT, while Milwaukee seemed to have struggle in its past games. I see Chicago taking this one.

HOU. Houston looks to shut down the Suns' high octane offense. The Rockets have been spectacular at home, and Ron Artest has been hot as of late. I think Houston would still be the right team to choose.

MIN. Lakers would probably win this one, but 15.5 seems to be too much. LAL would probably win by 8-10 points, but I'll look to research more on this one...

DEN. UTA has the longest winning streak among the teams in the NBA today, and I think they would win against DEN tomorrow, but with +9 DEN would probably cover. I think UTA would just win by 4-6 points. I've seen in previous games that DEN wins by a big margin or loses by a small one.

ORLNJN UNDER. Tailing Phx as usual...

CLEBOS UNDER. This would be one low scoring game, and the better defense will prevail!

CHIMIL OVER. A shootout!!! I think Chicago and Milwaukee will try to outdo each other with offense...

[peterpan19]

leans for friday:
char -4
orl -10
cle/bos under 185
fo the other games I have to see the line first

so char is only -2, better than I expected it to be.... Char is a team that played extremely well the last few weeks, they have a shot at a playoff spot and are just playing some nice ball ... they are on an 9-3 ATS run (7-6 SU) ... now they play at home against ATL that they own at home as they are 5-1 ATS and SU, plus add in that Char has revenge going after the 104-97 loss they took on a friday night in feb but that game was after a long road trip, on the other hand we have the Hawks who played some close games against Cle and Den, two wins against Mia and Was (which wasnt even that great) and a loss against the depleted knicks, give me Char here 8thinkung about going 2x on them tonight, but still dont know yet)

Orl -10 projected and now they are at -9, orl is 4-1 ATS and SU against NJ at home, they already beat them at home this year by 17 points, orl had a few tough games like the one against Det, but I think they are now back into business ... on the other hand we have NJ who covered the last 5 games ATS so you would think they are hot, but gues what the last time they faced Orl they came into to town covering 4 games ATS and they were destroyed, I fully expect the same thing to happen today again ... orl blowout

the total for the cle/bos game is exactly were i thought it would be, but I dont know about that game anymore, I mean the under is 5-2 in games in Bos, and it will probably be a close and hard fought game, but than i am a little scared about the Bos D, they allowed 111, 105 and 99 pts against teams like Nj, Det and Ind, I jsut dont know yet, I will have to take a deeper look into that game to make a decision...

Tor + whatever by gametime, this is a pure stats play for me as mia never plays well in Tor (5-0 SU and 7-1 ATS overall), they just dont match up well, Tor is 5-1 ATS and SU, add in that they come home after a bad short road trip, add in that this is Friday night where they want to show their fans something, I say Tor gets the job done tonight

so right now:
ORl, Char and Tor

still thinking about a late play on Utah and maybe Det (if the line is under 8), also thought about Pho, but I just cant trust them on the road right now....

[AussieDave]

Hi all,

11.30pm in OZ

all my books odds not in as yet, will be working around the following pic's, will post when booked, anyway I like

Orlando
Detroit
Chicago
San Antonio
Houston
Utah

Cheers,

AD

[AdaBarber]

Good mornig CK Mafia. Yeah I am dropping in to give my two cents. I would drop some coins more often but it is hard with a newborn, running the shop, and the online travel agency(nobody likes to work on anything). All they have to do is click and point but they rather have me book it through the old fashioned means.

Anyway, let me get back to sports. These are the teams I have researched on except the Miami game. That is a Schaapattack Best Bet.

James Madison -2.5 I figure they win this by 9 to 14.
Cleveland State -4 I figure they win this by 9 to 14.
Wofford -6.5 I figure they win by 12 to 15.
Miami NBA PK

Like I always say, commentary on my picks are welcomed.

[AdaBarber]

Good mornig CK Mafia. Yeah I am dropping in to give my two cents. I would drop some coins more often but it is hard with a newborn, running the shop, and the online travel agency(nobody likes to work on anything). All they have to do is click and point but they rather have me book it through the old fashioned means.

Anyway, let me get back to sports. These are the teams I have researched on except the Miami game. That is a Schaapattack Best Bet.

James Madison -2.5 I figure they win this by 9 to 14.
Cleveland State -4 I figure they win this by 9 to 14.
Wofford -6.5 I figure they win by 12 to 15.
Miami NBA PK

Like I always say, commentary on my picks are welcomed.

I am also leaning St. Johns +12.

[AdaBarber]

I am also leaning Anaheim and Dallas under 5.5 -120. Dallas has lost five in a row and has only scored six goals in those games. Chris Pronger is on the trading block and Anaheim is looking to get maximum value for him so competing is not on the agenda.

[Dexter]

im going to back the jazz again catching the nuggets off a btb televised game on thur (huge win over port). each team has won at home this year, and the jazz just got drilled by 20 in late jan at denver (payback time). utah has won 4 of the last 5 su in utah (3-2 ats) winning those 4 games by 16ppg vs den - utah has been on fire of late, and should beat up the nuggets in this spot. projected line of -8.

-jazz (big)
_____________
the cavs have been playing the celts close in games at boston, having covered 5 of the last 6 but losing all 6 su. those games were all with KG - no garnett, leaves the door open for the cavs to flex their muscle and get some momentum for the inevitable eastern conf finals. projected line of +3.

-cavs
_______________
the raptors have lost 3 straight tough road games and now come back home to face a heat team that they have owned in canada (3-1 ats the last 4 - all 4 su wins by an avg of 21ppg). projected line of -4.

-raptors
_______________
the pistons are red hot without allen iverson, and i will simply fade one of the worst road ats teams in the league on the opposite coast. projected line of -8. so yes, there will be a hedge on the JM B play.

pistons (big)
_______________
the spurs are back home off a su loss in dal - the wizards come in having to face a spurs team that has owned them in texas - 4-1 the last 5 ats winning by an avg margin of 17ppg. projected line of -13.5

spurs (big)
______________

**all big plays just 2x due to the cold stretch.

[Dexter]

teasedorl-5/cle+6
teasedorl-5/pho+10.5

how are you getting so many pts on 2 team teasers? 4 pts on these plays??

am i not correct in that teasers for 2 teams are +2 pts?

[Dexter]

check out the pistons results in these last 4 games - and notice who was a DNP

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_NBA_gamelog.aspx?sport=NBA&id=409

[ram1502]

how are you getting so many pts on 2 team teasers? 4 pts on these plays??

am i not correct in that teasers for 2 teams are +2 pts?

The standard is 4.5 points on teasers Dex.

[pho3nix32]

For today...

NJN+9.5@ORL LINE: 203
MIA@TOR (PK) LINE: 204
ATL+2.5@CHA LINE: 185.5
CLE+2@BOS LINE: 184
GSW+9.5@DET LINE: 203
MIL+6.5@CHI LINE: 206
PHX+6.5@HOU LINE: 226
MIN+15.5@LAL LINE: 215.5
DEN+9@UTA LINE: 211

PICKS: ORL, TOR, CHA, CLE, DET, CHI, HOU, MIN, DEN, ORLNJN UNDER, CLEBOS UNDER, MILCHI OVER

ORL. Just like what CK said, ORL will take advantage of NJN since they've had 4 games in 5 nights, and this doesn't look good for them since they're on the road now.

TOR. Miami has sort of struggled against Toronto this season, and its about time Toronto wins in their home court.

CHA. Charlotte has been one hot team, and they look to win 5 straight tomorrow against the Hawks who are somewhat struggling on the road. Raja Bell may not play, but I still think CHA will grab the win here. (If Raja Bell does play, he'd probably shut down Joe Johnson with his defense )

CLE. Boston has been struggilng to find their rhythm without KG. Cleveland on the other hand has been winning and winning, and I don't think their streak is gonna end here. CLE would be looking to prove a point by defeating the defending champs to fully boost their confidence.

DET. With a lot of injuries bugging Golden State, and Coach Don Nelson benching his starters, DET looks to take advantage of this. They are playing so well as of late without Allen Iverson. With Rip Hamilton back in the starting lineup, he has been lighting it up for the Pistons who look to improve their record and winning streak after some struggle.

CHI. A battle for 8th Place. Chicago looks to take this one seriously. Chicago has been HOT, while Milwaukee seemed to have struggle in its past games. I see Chicago taking this one.

HOU. Houston looks to shut down the Suns' high octane offense. The Rockets have been spectacular at home, and Ron Artest has been hot as of late. I think Houston would still be the right team to choose.

MIN. Lakers would probably win this one, but 15.5 seems to be too much. LAL would probably win by 8-10 points, but I'll look to research more on this one...

DEN. UTA has the longest winning streak among the teams in the NBA today, and I think they would win against DEN tomorrow, but with +9 DEN would probably cover. I think UTA would just win by 4-6 points. I've seen in previous games that DEN wins by a big margin or loses by a small one.

ORLNJN UNDER. Tailing Phx as usual...

CLEBOS UNDER. This would be one low scoring game, and the better defense will prevail!

CHIMIL OVER. A shootout!!! I think Chicago and Milwaukee will try to outdo each other with offense...

are you going to bet on all these games?

watchout for that chicago pick, they only play 7 players. the bucks have been peforming well as of late. skiles is a good coach.

[Dexter]

3/7 - Sat

the warriors will be playing their 4th game in 5 nights vs a bucks team looking to avenge a beating they took in oakland. projected line of -5.5

-bucks (big)
_____________
the blazers will be looking to keep pace in the tough northwest div off of that loss in denver. coming in are the ice cold twolves who will be playing on a btb. projected line of -12.

-blazers (big)
____________
the mavs will be back home looking to right itself off of the loss in no. the wizards stand in their way coming off a btb from sa. i smell a hammer job in their annual texas trip.

-mavs (big)
______________
other leans: pistons (will be a play if they cover vs the warriors - i wanna be on this streak with no AI), heat (will be a play if the cavs beat boston), hornets (will be a play depending on how i do tonight - they are peaking, and i want to be on this streak - but the thunder are tough dogs, so i'll wait)

[Odraca]

seems like everyone is on orlando tonight, but I like NJ.

they have been hot since the all star break, they travel well considering their away vs. home record. they have been playing very well and I think they will cover 9. orlando has not been up to par lately imo also.

thought i'd post this also because i dont just tail other people blindly,

GL

[Dexter]

The standard is 4.5 points on teasers Dex.

i thought the amount of pts you get depend on how many teams you are using. in fact, i know thats a fact here in NY with locals...

[SoonerGreg]

i thought the amount of pts you get depend on how many teams you are using. in fact, i know thats a fact here in NY with locals...

My bookie has standard 4 pt teaser on 2 - 6 team plays.

[MindGames]

Fun Fact for you Guys and Gals: It's Shaq's 37th Birthday today.. perhaps he celebrates in style vs. a Rockets team thats due to have an off night at home vs. a surging Suns team. Take it for what it's worth and good luck all.

[BrandonLaz]

Fun Fact for you Guys and Gals: It's Shaq's 37th Birthday today.. perhaps he celebrates in style vs. a Rockets team thats due to have an off night at home vs. a surging Suns team. Take it for what it's worth and good luck all.

Your idea of a surging team and mine are different I guess. Sure they are a fine team at home same as Dallas Mavericks they have only had one win on the road in their last 7 games though. That is not the sign of a surging team to me I would be cautious with that pick if I where you.

[BrandonLaz]

i thought the amount of pts you get depend on how many teams you are using. in fact, i know thats a fact here in NY with locals...

It honestly just depends on the bookie some offer their standard 5 point teasers, other standard 4, some it depends on amount of games. Find the one that has the best odds and the most points and there you go that is the one you should use for teasers.

[Dexter]

Your idea of a surging team and mine are different I guess. Sure they are a fine team at home same as Dallas Mavericks they have only had one win on the road in their last 7 games though. That is not the sign of a surging team to me I would be cautious with that pick if I where you.

surging teams that i can see really going on a run are the hornets and pistons...

[MindGames]

BrandonLaz, maybe surging wasn't the right word. I just feel like they have a new sense of swagger to them lately. I am not going to bet on that game I just posted it for fun. If you want to know my real picks for tonight they are:

Cleveland +2
Toronto +1
Milwaukee +6 1/2

GL Tonight with your bets Brotha

[MindGames]

also:

tn martin -4

[mb19]

teasedorl-5/cle+6
teasedorl-5/pho+10.5

I think there are a few good games to do a teaser on.

Spurs -14
Utah -9
Orlando -9

I know my book allows 7 point teasers for three teams, I'll probably book one with these.

I had an insanely bad Tuesday, as I think most people in this thread did, trying to make back what I lost yesterday and tonight.

[El Degeneroso]

In breaking down the Cavs - Celts game, this jumped out at me:

Starting last Wed (2/25), this has been the Cavs Schedule: To Houston (2/26), to SA (2/27), off a day, to Atl (3/1), to Mia (3/2), off, back home to Cle (3/4), off, now to Boston.

Seems like a lot of travel, 6 destinations over the past 9 days. Boston, in the same time period, has only made 1 road trip, to NJ. Add to that Boston's urgency not to fall 3 losses behind Cleveland in the race for the East's best record and the fact that the home team has won 10 straight in this series, and I like Boston tonight. Not to mention CK's mantra of not betting against the Celts and their refs in a big game.

As always GL to all, no matter which way you go.