Leans for Tuesday 2/24/09 schaapattack Week

[ASH0479]

....

Regarding the Bulls game.....they just came off a loss to Indy, Orlando just blew out whoever they played and yet the line now is down to - 1.5....IF ITS TO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT PROBABLY IS.....all the money is on Orlando and yet the spread is coming down....see any logic there, I don't, take the Bulls

[UndersSuck]

Lyon 1 - Barca 0 17th minute

[Dexter]

can you or ck explain the correlation between the ML and spread - and how you conclude that one side is the play?

*school is in session folks - pay attention.

bump

[missumuch]

Orlando wont lose to the bulls unless someone got paid....
The line movement could be becasue they want more money on the bulls.
Thoughts

[dime_it]

Hey Dexter, could you check your PM. Thanks

[Ditaln1]

1-0 Arsenal.

[peterpan19]

dex
did you already locked in the dal ? or do you think we can get some more points b4 gametime ?

adding: Cle -15 (booked for 1.5), it really smells like a blowout
also hou -4 booked for 1.5

waiting on the det, dal and orl game

[Dexter]

no peter - i did not yet....5 seems about right, so i dont think it will move much higher.

[Dexter]

Orlando wont lose to the bulls unless someone got paid....
The line movement could be becasue they want more money on the bulls.
Thoughts

reverse thinking - could be....but i dont like to try and outguess what the linemakers do.

imo, i look at games like this that the books are simply trying to get more money on the magic (by lowering the line) to even out the cash they've been hit with on the bulls.

same thing when i play poker - when playing vs players you dont know, stick to the abc fundamentals of where a player raises from, bets after the flop etc - rather then guessing that the player under the gun raised with 9/2 off - i'll assume it was a strong starting hand.

[RoagBettor]

Well we need 2 goals in the 2nd Half for the cover on the Lyon-Barcelona game. That quick score was a headfake!

[Killer Chihuahua]

can you or ck explain the correlation between the ML and spread - and how you conclude that one side is the play?

*school is in session folks - pay attention.

Dex....I asked the same question a week ago and cound not find anyone who could give me a straight answer. I want to know which side you want to be on when the money line is off. Should you be on the ml or on the spread ect. Hope we get an answer

[Dexter]

yeah, and how do you know the ML is off? i guess each half a point is worth a dollar amount.

[hockeytown11]

Well we need 2 goals in the 2nd Half for the cover on the Lyon-Barcelona game. That quick score was a headfake!

we are fine,we need 1 goal every 30 mins,we got a goal in the first 30,still 15 mins left in second 30,and we will get 1 in final 30,we are going to win this game. Barca will score 2

[holdplz]

[quote=Dexter;1570813]reverse thinking - could be....but i dont like to try and outguess what the linemakers do.

imo, i look at games like this that the books are simply trying to get more money on the magic to even out the cash they've been hit with on the bulls.
quote]


Sometimes the best deconstruction of these puzzling lines that don't play true to form is to just ignore it and play to form anyway! Like Louisville last night...

[hockeytown11]

barca hit the post by the way in the 1st half

[repski]

Hockey,
just curious why you don't like the Flyers/Wash over....seems like a no brainer

[Killer Chihuahua]

yeah, and how do you know the ML is off? i guess each half a point is worth a dollar amount.

here is the ml to spread ratio for you-

-2 -130/+110
-3 -140/+135
-4 -200/+170
-4.5 -220/+180
-5 to 5.5 -240/+190
-6 -270/+210
-6.5 -300/+220
-7 -330/+250
-7.5 to -8.5 -360/+280
-9 to -9.5 -400/+300
-10 -450/+325
-10.5 -475/+350
-11 -500/+375
-11.5 -550/+400
-12 -625/+450
-12.5 -650/+475


enjoy

[bigboyfosho]

Anyone else feel Orlando is a safe pick?

[holdplz]

I bought Det +4 and +160 ML. I've needed a good dog like this all week....

[Dexter]

here is the ml to spread ratio for you-

-10 -450/+325

enjoy

ok, so my guess would be that if a line is -10, yet the moneyline is at -300....the underdog is the smart play.

[hockeytown71]

I'm new to this whole site, but am familiar with CK. I must first say that there are some VERY good cappers in this thread. I know Hockeytown 11 has pucks down to a science. Between his plays, CK, and myself (and a few others on here) I've been doing pretty well. So THANK YOU too you guys! I hope to return the favor with a few plays of my own (NHL). I have a bunch for today:

Buff ml -120
Ana/Buff Over 5.5
Atl/Avs Over 6
Fl/Boston Under 5.5 (waiting to see if Vokoun is in)
Chi/Nash Under 5.5

I have a few more leans but not locked yet.

[TheLemonDropKid]

OK My "Roag ML Parlay" of the day is all NBA:

Memphis
Minnesota
Detroit
Portland
Dallas
Charlotte

$5 to win $22,313.81! GLTM!

Hey Roag.......have you ever hit any of these?

[Ditaln1]

HT : barcelona tied it. 1 more goal baby!

[The_Kid]

ok, so my guess would be that if a line is -10, yet the moneyline is at -300....the underdog is the smart play.

If the spread doesn't correlate with the ML, I always try to throw a little something on it. CK can probably explain that more but there was a thread on it that you can find by searching the forum. If I find it, I'll bring it up here.

[RoagBettor]

Lemon,

The biggest parlay I've hit is an 8-teamer for about $1800. I usually spend about $25 a day on various parlays/teasers. I don't even know if I'm up overall, I don't really keep track but I hit several in the last 3-4 months, mostly the $100-$200 ones.

I just play these $5 longshots for fun. It's like buying a lottery ticket.

[Killer Chihuahua]

ok, so my guess would be that if a line is -10, yet the moneyline is at -300....the underdog is the smart play.

i dont think it is ever that way. usually when its off it will be -10 with a ml of -475. usually the other way giving the line more room to go towards -10.5 or 11. just what i usually see...

[CP Thrizzle]

Cavs 1Q -5 too high or still a good bet?

[OperatorX]

1 goal in like 5 minutes? cmoooon

[TheLemonDropKid]

Okay.....I've been in this nest with you big birds for quite awhile now. Each one of you have poked my ass out of the nest to see if I could fly on my own............and every time I wound up with my beak stuck in the dirt. Well this time I can feel it.....I'm ready to fly!!! So step back boys and girls cuz this little anchor with wings is ready to soar!!!!!!!!!! Ready for takeoff!

My picks for the day (which are gonna go 6-0 or 6for6):

Pitt U. -9
Creighton -6.5
Fliers/Caps Over 6
Avs/Thrashers Over 6
Canucks/Canadians Over 6
Magic -2

Bet em straight up and be happy......parlay them and you'll piss your pants....lol

[OperatorX]

6-6 im ready to get in on that especially after I've been losing, well.. pretty much the entire day now.

[Karayilan9]

Soccer games were W 1. L 1. Roma were a huge let down, they should have lost 4-0 the 1-0 scoreline doesn't reflect the game. Man U drew which won the bet but they could have easily won.

[handimann]

hey dex,

what are you thinking about the suns over? 221.5 right now

[OperatorX]

hockeytown vs hockeytown.. this should be interesting.

[Bezerk15]

WTF??? hockeytown71 - you need to change that name homie - don't be messing with hockeytown11 - ish will get confusing homie!

[BigMoneyMan]

Dex....I asked the same question a week ago and cound not find anyone who could give me a straight answer. I want to know which side you want to be on when the money line is off. Should you be on the ml or on the spread ect. Hope we get an answer

Go to he Greek or another site that will let you buy as many points as you like. Take a game that is -10. Then buy down 10 points and see what there charging to do it. Then compare that to the actual money line. Hope that helps.

PS. This only works if the consensus is fairly even on the side and ML.

Im in the Lab crunching numbers be back soon.!