mattyg NBA thread

[mattyg93]

Very disappointed in myself for not taking the points on the Blazers. I looked a bunch of other peoples threads and they scared me away. First time I have let others influence my picks this year.

2-1 night. Still happy with it.

Taking the bobcats over was to "hedge" the bobcats spread. I figured if the bulls are going to win win by 13 then the game would have be something like 100-85. Was hoping for the chance of double covering but the 1-1 is fine. This reasoning might be stupid and and a rookie move but it made sense to me. Would love to hear other peoples thoughts on the situation.

[Ralphalph]

I like to read this guy's opinion from time to time. I think he helps me understand how to think differently than I already do. Last year he had a horrible NBA season and I figure this year will be same. He's more of a football guy, I think. Check him out though, he has interesting opinions. He agreed with you on the +12.5 Charlotte bet today.

http://sportswagers.ca/nba/ (he plays much differently, I might add. He plays with "value" a lot.)

[mattyg93]

Overall Record: 45-42
ytd: -1.15u Getting closer!!!

I read that guys view. Interesting. I don't tend to think about some of those things but they don't really correlate with how I pick games. So it is hard to factor what he said in. I also scared myself away from taking a team tonight because I saw to many good betters against my pick. So I'm trying to really feel my thoughts out right now.

[mattyg93]

Three plays today. Wasn't my favorite card today but I do think these plays can give me a 2-1 night. I see a high tempo night for Wizards and TWolves. Hopefully enough of the 3s fall for Love and Martin. I like the pistons here with chandler out. Hopefully that keeps them away from the three ball that they shouldnt be shooting and try to get good close looks with there powerful inside game. Looking for a big night from Cousins trying to rally his team to a win after some frustrating losses. I also just don't believe this Suns team.

1x Pistons -3.5 @-110
1x Kings -2 @-105
1x Wizards over 205 @-110

[Ralphalph]

I like Knicks +4.5. Their good on the road. Today is there day.
Phoenix and Sacramento Under 194.5 (I like Sacramento -2 also, but I'm shootin' for the total)
Miami -8.5

GL!

[mattyg93]

That was a sharp total on the Wizards game. I fell on the wrong side of it unfortunately.
Pistons got it done for me.
Idk what the Kings are doing right now. Need to play some better defense.

[mattyg93]

Overall Record: 47-43
ytd: -.29u

Fell on the wrong side of one game and the right side of another. Sharp lines tonight. Came out with the 2-1. I'm happy with it. Hopefully tomorrow I can see the green again. It's been a while.

[Ralphalph]

haha Sacramento by -2...Well played Matty, well played. I know you said this Phoenix team isn't real, and I'd agree. It seems to be good coaching or good ethic keeping this team in games close games. I think the real story is how crazy this Sacramento team is though. They can slash, shoot, and play wildly good defense when they want to. It's also insane how poorly they can play too. Stupid turnovers and bad shot selection. It was cool to see Fredette get in there and have that big shot in the 4th. I'm telling you Matty, this Sacramento team has potential. Based on the 3-7 start, I'm guessing this is another failed year? Likely :0(

[mattyg93]

So I like the Kings but I don't trust them. I believe Cousins will be the best big in the league soon. They show some really strong potential at times but they play terribly for way to long in ever game. In a couple years, yeah they could be somebody, but I won't be taking that much this season unless they show something some consistency.

Hopefully I can find myself with another winning night. Plays will be posts later. I am looking at Detroit game, Brooklyn Game, Miami Game, Portland Game, and the Houston Game.

[mattyg93]

Celtics +14.5 @-110
Celtics under 192 @-105
Blazers -5 @-110
Pistons +5 @-110

Want to take the Pistons but not getting a line from my book.
The Celtics game is double cover or double miss most likely I think. If it stays under 192 I should be safe on +14.5. If it goes over I need the Celtics to stay in it. I think Bostons and the Spurs are going to play slow tonight and limit there shots. We've seen Boston try to play high pace and slow and we have seen the Spurs try to slow it down against some of the faster teams.
I like the Blazers. Hate the bucks. Thats about as deep as Ill go on that play. Blazers are hot. I still can't believe I let others influence me on there last game and didn't take them but thats over and looking to cash in on them today.

[Ralphalph]

Today is beautiful. I like today's picks.

Pacers -6.5
Timberwolves -2 (I just changed this one. All roads lead to Minnesota winning tonight)
Celtics +14.5
Celtics and San Antonio Over 193
Jazz and Pelicans Over 195
Golden state and Memphis Over 189.5 I think my favorite pick tonight.
Rocket +3 This one seems fishy for some reason, but I still like it.

[mattyg93]

Overall Record: 47-43
ytd: -.47u

Looking at Bulls by the spread tomorrow.

Ralph, good job tonight.

[Ralphalph]

I dunno about that Bulls pick buddy. I would be more down with Denver or what I have more confidence in, is the total. 195.5 is too low. I think Denver wants to run the floor for 3 quarters and slow it down in the 4th. Bulls play great defense, but it wont be enough against this Denver home team. Denver at home is a different animal.

[mattyg93]

Bulls -1 @-110

Rolling with Duke tonight without Butler. I still like this game for them even though all the trends are against them.

[Ralphalph]

Bulls -1 @-110

Rolling with Duke tonight without Butler. I still like this game for them even though all the trends are against them.

I'm not sure your bucking any trends Matty. I think the betting public is heavily favoring Bulls tonight. I think we should see Bulls -1.5 before the tip off. And holy shit, it went from 195.5 to 199.5? I think it can still cover the 199.5, but I think Thunder and Clippers under 212.5 is a better bet. 2nd half should be super slow. I see more defense coming into play here.

Take me for Denver +1
and Thunder and Clipper Under 212.5

GL!

[mattyg93]

good picks again ralph. deng was not there tonight

[mattyg93]

Overall Record: 49-46
ytd: -1.47u

1x Spurs -1.5 @-115
1x Spurs over 184 @-110
1x Detroit -3.5 @-110
1x Wizards +4.5 @-110
1x Bobcats -2.5 @-110

[Ralphalph]

Sorry for the late post. These picks are golden.

I like Phoenix +2.5 Their ATS is phenomenal. Had to follow the trend on this one.
Bulls and Portland over 190 Blazers are good at home. I wouldn't be surprised if they cover. But this game would be easy on the over with the great offense from portland at home.
Brooklyn +9...this is too much.
Goldenstate -6.5 If curry plays, then is this is a go. It's weird how much impact he has on the team. If he doesn't play, I see Lakers covering.
Memphis +1.5. Memphis are hitting their stride here. They got this.

GL!

[Ralphalph]

Where you at Matty? Jump out of a window yet?

I took the Lakers in the end and I got away with 3-2 yesterday.

Today is a bit funky, but I'll do my best.

Minnesota +7 I don't think very highly of the rockets. It's strange to me to give this many points to Minnesota when at any day they can crush teams.
Knicks +1.5 Knicks are better away and their fired up. Good combo.
Miami and Orlando Under 203 I see defense playing in here.
Mavericks +5 They have a rhythm going here. I don't think they'll spoil it here.
Bucks and Bobcats Over 183. These aren't super offensive minded teams, but they can get it done.
Cleveland +12.5 Their fired up after that crazy team mess...and when their fired up and in gear, they can keep up with any team. They cover easily I think.

[mattyg93]

Jumped out the window and survived in extreme pain, Nothing goes my way. Ralph, keep winning man. Someone in this thread deserves too.

Overall Record: 51-49
ytd:-2.69u

1x Celtics +9.5 @-110
1x Bobcats +2 @-105
1x Mavs +5 @-110

Fade Material

[Ralphalph]

You're only down -2.69u. That ain't nothin man. You were here last week I believe. In other words, back to square one. The only real regression you've made is purely psychology. Spoken from a true therapist :0) If you're truly "fade material", be curious to fade yourself. And if you reallllly want to win, play my picks

[mattyg93]

I should be playing your picks haha. not paying you for the therapy session either

[mattyg93]

Overall Record: 54-49
ytd: +.08u WHAT UP RALPH!!!! WE ARE ON THE WAY UP

[Ralphalph]

I should be playing your picks haha. not paying you for the therapy session either

Your first therapy session is on the house!

Good job...I've realized long ago, how much gambling is psychological. Bad beats in gambling are very similar to the ones in our lives. Learn to conqueror the bad beats and you will be a rich man.

Yesterday I went 2-4. I think today is a bit funky also, but I like it straight up

Sacramento ML +155 They must be butter because they're on a roll.
Thunder -13...Let's face it, this Jazz team is down and outer, a no gooder. Thunder will trample Jazz today.
Suns ML +105 Suns got grit. This Orlando team ain't got nothing.

GL!

[mattyg93]

I am taking the day off. I did not have that much confidence in making any play today. With that being said. I think you have three solid picks here. I was leaning on the Clippers and Sacramento today. Couldn't pull the trigger. Best of luck ralph. Get them back for yesterday!

[mattyg93]

Should be a couple plays today. Leaning on Minnesota, Charlotte, and Chicago.

I think the Pacers giving 7 right now is to much for an explosive team like Minnesota. I can see the TWolves taking this game straight up.
I think the Bobcats are being undervalued right now. The Celtics are random when they show up. The Celtics do guard the point very well which could slow Kemba down but I like the Bobcats in what I think will be a half court game.
Chicago knows how to play without Rose. The Jazz are terrible. Should be making plays on these 3 unless I end up seeing something I don't like.

[mattyg93]

Bobcats -4 @-110
Twolves +6.5 @-110
Twolves under 195 @-105
Bulls -5 @-110

[Ralphalph]

Matty, I think were gonna make a killing today.

Here are my picks. I'm making 12 picks because today looks reaaaally good to me.

Phoenix +12.5 their ATS is phenomenal. Couldn't pass it up.
Houston -1.5
Blazers -7 Knicks are pure fade. I'll be on this train for a minute.
Blazers and Knicks Over 194.5...Best pick today.
Bulls -4.5 Only -4.5? Fishy....but what can you say? You gotta take it.
Dallas and Denver Under 213 Denver is lethargic away and not as productive offensively here.
Bulls and Jazz Under 182 I foresee a blowout.
Heat Team Team Under 107.5
Minnesota and Indiana Under 196
Indiana -6.5
Charlotte -3.5 Taking your pick here matty.
Detroit -7

GL!

[Ralphalph]

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[mattyg93]

very nice ralph. sorry on the bobcats play.

55-52
-1.97u

[Ralphalph]

very nice ralph. sorry on the bobcats play.

55-52
-1.97u

All Good. We'll get'em back tomorrow.

[mattyg93]

Magic +7.5 @-110
Nets +7 @-115

I think this has a great chance of being a good night.

[Ralphalph]

Good! I like your optimism Matty. I don't feel as confident. I'm gonna experiment today with a big card.

Toronto -6.5 Against my better judgment but I'm on the Brooklyn fade train.
Brooklyn and Toronto Over 191 I see Toronto getting their way here and getting good foul shots in the end.
Atlanta -7.5 Yesterday when the line came out, I thought Orlando was a good play. Though, Orlando plays like a joke sometimes. I see Vegas telling us something here with this many points.
Atlanta and Orlando Under 199.5
Washington -5 I'm super hesitant to take this because Lakers are playing on their game, but I don't see it happening in Washington. Their a good home team.
Washington and Lakers Over 197.5 Public disagrees with me here, but it can be done.
Pelicans +1.5 I swear this seems like a trap, but Igoudala and Bogut not the lineup. Pelicans can pull this off at home.
Pelicans and Golden state Under 207.5 My first reaction is "Way too high!" Pelicans decent D and a somewhat slower offense. My favorite pick tonight. Seems like "my favorite picks" are fade quality, so watch out.

Hmm...I noticed I'm playing majority favorites tonight. We'll see what happens...

GL!

[mattyg93]

57-52
-.19 ytd

Solid night with the 2-0. Both teams ended up winning straight up. Happy with the picks. The Raptors are bad and the coaching is terrible. Might be fading them for a while.

Good job again ralph

[Ralphalph]

Wow, close Pelican's game . I missed that atlanta under and washington play by a hair. 4-3-1 on the day. I think I play the totals pretty well 3-1 tonight and 4-1 yesterday and missed each by a basket each night. I wonder if I should play all of them every night? Spreads are still a bit difficult and waffly for me .