mattyg NBA thread

[mattyg93]

Figure I would make a thread to document my picks for the season. Hoping for a good year. Will be trying to post plays every day.
Picks made before the thread:

1x clippers -9.5 @-105 loss
1x mavs -5.5 @-110 Win
1x nuggets under 204 @-110 Win
1x clippers over 206 @-110 Win
1x live bet: knicks bulls under 177 @-111 Win

ytd:+2.63u

[mattyg93]

tonight's picks

1x clippers -3.5 @-110 Win
1x pistons +8 @-115 Win
1x pelicans -4 @-110 Loss
1x cavs -2.5 @-110 Loss
1x thunder over 202 @-105 Loss
1x celtics under 187 @-105 Loss

[mattyg93]

Live Bet: 1x heat -4.5 4th quarter @-111 win
Live Bet: 1x heat under 193.5 @-120 Loss
2nd half: 1x lakers over 104.5 @-100 Loss


Overall Record:7-7
ytd:-.69u

Rough night for a lot of people it looked like. Probably should of stayed away from the live betting. Looking at some plays for tomorrow.

[mattyg93]

1x Rockets -6.5 @-110
1x Cavs under 188 @-110
1x Spurs under 197 @-105
1x Cavs +8.5 @-110
1x Rockets under 199 @-105
1x Bobcats +8.5 @-115

That is probably it for tonight.

Overall Record: 10-10
ytd: -.92u

[mattyg93]

Probably should of hopped on the philly train but I am very scared of them falling of the face of the earth sometime soon. I am also scared of the day d-rose gets it all back which I high believe he will.

Put too much thought into how the spurs played vs the lakers without duncan. Should of stayed away from that.

Should be plays tonight.

[mattyg93]

1x Lakers under 205 @-115
1x Nets under 196 @-110
1x Suns +12 @-110
1x 1st Quarter Heat -4 @-115
1x Celtics under 192 @-105

All the plays for the night. Might get into some second half betting. Trying to stay away from it though.

[mattyg93]

Good start to the night. Hopefully Suns can hold in the 4th. Need Durant to slow down and Westbrook and Ibaka to keep being themselves. Only 3 games in and first for Westbrook but their offense looks sort of out of whack without the third scorer. Ibaka trying to play the role and not doing too hot.

[Ralphalph]

You're lookin' real good their. Super confident Suns will cover.

Are you sure on the Lakers under 205? I'm not really sure myself, but leaning on the over.

[mattyg93]

No. That is my least confident pick but I would take it. I think Hawks will try to slow the tempo and make this weird Lakers team run an offense. Not sure Gasol can carry the load.

[Ralphalph]

Good, that makes me feel better :0)

Over looks good, but I think betting the spread is even better. This game is primed for the Lakers to win at home tonight. I think they'll bring the same tenacity they did as when they played Clippers during the season opener. This game is tough.

[mattyg93]

Still waiting for them to start firing bricks from long range. Nick young needs to start jacking too

[Ralphalph]

Sorry brosef...It was Over indeed. I also decided to get the Under at 50pts for the lakers at the half and it was solid. Friggen' amazing job today on the rest of your bets though.

Tomorrow's games look really awesome:

Golden State -7 and/or Over 212...I think I like the Golden State team only over the best though...I figure it's gonna be put at 107pts. I suspect Golden state is gonna pound these guys hard. I figure Golden State wants to quash any Sixers hype. I think Sixers have gotten lucky in the past three games and finally met their match. The best scenario and likely is that Sixers play well enough and play Golden State's uptempo game and keep up close til the very end.

I also really like Minnesota +2. Minnesota is on a tear. They got a healthy roster with lots of heart and scrappiness. I suspect this game being close for sure, but Minnesota takes the win outright. I'm also leaning on Over at 196, but kinda iffy on it because I'm not sure what exactly expect from Cavs. I suppose hard nosed defense and running slow but sure offense? If had to put money down for sure, I might take Minnesota Team only on the over for sure. I'm guessing it's gonna be 92 or 94pts? That's gotta be solid.

Lastly, Houston +5 and the over 207pts. Clippers are a tricky bunch because they can get crippled easily when things don't go their way. Houston has a nice way of bringing out a team's flaws. However, sometimes Clippers rise to the occasion and blowout everyone's expectations. For that reason, i'm not too confident about the +5, but the over at 207pts looks great. I think theirs a small doubt that Dwight is slowing their usual offensive pace, but I don't think it matters all that much because Clippers give up too many points too easily. This is a recipe for a high score, as high as 221pts or more.

Tell me what you think.

[mattyg93]

Overall Record: 14-11
ytd: +1.72u

Nice write ups. I am 100 percent on Golden State -7. Dont think Philly can keep doing what they are doing. All I have to say about that. Not taking the over because I am scared Philly won't put up the needed points if the game gets out of hand early not sure Golden State will push the issue.
Also on Minnesota. Cavs look awkward on offense while Minnesota looks like a machine clicking on all cylinders.
Lastly I am going the over on the Rockets. This game should have an extremely fast pace. Confident that both teams can finish baskets. Agreed with the Statement on Dwight. I like what they are doing. They kept the same offensive pace but simply added Dwight to the offense. Lots of 3s being shot tonight.

[mattyg93]

1x Rockets over 208 @-105
1x Warriors -7 @-105
1x Timberwolves +2 @-115
1x Celtics over 186 @-110
Teaser 1x Warriors +1 Timberwolves +10 Celtics over 178 @-110

Should be all the plays for tonight unless I see something else. Pretty locked in on these 4 though.

Added the teaser.

[Emancipator]

1x Rockets over 208 @-105
1x Warriors -7 @-105
1x Timberwolves +2 @-115
1x Celtics over 186 @-110
Teaser 1x Warriors +1 Timberwolves +10 Celtics over 178 @-110

Should be all the plays for tonight unless I see something else. Pretty locked in on these 4 though.

Added the teaser.

I took first half only, but I still like your Warriors pick. BOL

[mattyg93]

First half scares me just a little. 76ers are hot and they are at home. I feel like they might come out with some early energy. Still think you have a solid pick though. GL

[Ralphalph]

OMGosh!!! That Minnesota game was awesome!!! I parlayed the son of the bitch with Golden state for $158 and collected $575. I didn't think I was going to get it, but there it is! Miracles do happen!

Onto new business: I want to wager at least $50 for the Houston game, but I'm still very hesistant. I like the Over at 211, but i'm still iffy on it. Maybe Over first half at 106? Any words of wisdom?

[mattyg93]

I def like the over on the game. 211 is starting to get high. Rockets have been slow in the first half so its scary. I might say stay away from the game and just hold on to the winnings from the night. Great parlay btw. Amazing comeback to cover there. If you are going ot bet. I'd say over 211 on the game. Looking for some high tempo action tonight.

[Ralphalph]

Cool. I'm all there with you 100%. I put $30 on the over...just to make the game a little more interesting :0)

I'll let you know my picks later tonight for tomorrow's games.

Thanks for your help. ttyl!

[mattyg93]

Awesome write up last night.

GL on the over. Lets both cover. Did you take the Golden State over?

[Ralphalph]

Thanks...The sad thing is I think I enjoyed writing that up more than I want to admit lol. I know could have easily went into more detail by providing hard numbers and what not, but nonetheless, it was fun to do. If only my real job was this interesting!

Nope, I took your advice on the Golden state at -7 instead of the Over. I'm not huge on point spreads actually. I'm more a points total person. Easier to understand and plenty of data available.

[Ralphalph]

My gosh, today was a good day for me. I hit all my bets :0)


Tomorrow's got some good stuff and some traps too, I think.

My Favs:
This is a sure thing: Indiana at -1.5. I expect full domination by Indiana here. They have all the pieces necessary defensively and offensively to control tempo the whole way through and blow this team out without flinching. I think Pacer's team chemistry and rhythm will outplay Detriot newly equipped team. Not much to say here, other than I think Vegas was silly to put Indiana at -1.5pts. I'm 90% confident of this game.


Jazz +10.5: I like this bet a lot because of the sheer volume of points Jazz are getting at +10.5. I know Brooklyn has the experience and man power to do plenty of damage, but I think they lack the will to put away the Jazz. I think Brooklyn is super overvalued; fool's gold. Not sure how much coaching will factor in here, but I somehow I believe it won't help that much at all or ineffectively downplay the super talented team they have. I also Brooklyn and Jazz love the over at 191pts. Both teams are looking for the big win here and can shoot the lights out. I see the over at 195 or 196pts. I'm 85% confident on the over and 75% on the point spread game.


Another sure thing: Sacramento and Atlanta over 201.5pts. I like this game a lot because both teams don't play defense very much and don't play it well at all. Sacramento's offense is well above average and I think both teams are eager for the win. Sacramento reminds me of mix between Clippers and Sacramento. I say this is a close game, which will force the score to go as high as 212 or higher. I like how in the beginning of seasons, it takes vegas a few weeks to settle in and catch up to predict higher scores these teams will produce. There's usually lots of overs in the beginning of any season or any sport in recent years. I'm 80% confident of this game.


This one is tricky: Knicks -9. Tomorrow Knicks are playing revenge ball here. They get owned in front of their homecrowd and now they want to come back garner all their strength and destroy the next team in their path; I'm slightly biased because Knick's are my favorite team, which makes me feel like I know them better than any other team. I've noticed Carmelo has been playing off his game lately. He has fewer touches and isn't grounded in the new-ish offense just yet. I think this game should be his breakout game against a weak team. I don't think Charlotte has the experience nor the grit to come back strong after their terrible beat down loss from the Pelicans. Knicks are slightly overvalued here, but they have the homecrowd and top-talent to tip the scales when they choose to... Tomorrow Knicks are coming out to play. I'm 75% confident of this one.


Pelican's -9... Are you crazy? That's way too many points to laying for the up and coming Phoenix. I'm slightly doubtful Phoenix will not cover because Dragic is out with the ankle injury, which hurts the flow and support Phoenix needs to win outright. Although, I love how Bledsoe is filling in lots of those little gaps. I'm thinking Phoenix will trail the whole way and lose by a few. 9pts is too many to trust this young and seemingly new Pelican's team against this Phoenix team who are daring to make a run at the playoffs this year. I choose +9 Phoenix. I'm 70% confident of this one.


My Iffy's:
Lakers +8.5 40% confident
Houston +1.5 40% confident
Heat -6 (I thought I saw it posted at -6...but now I don't see it anymore)

I get all of my lines from Bet Online, by the way.

What do you think?

[vasilli07]

My gosh, today was a good day for me. I hit all my bets :0)


Tomorrow's got some good stuff and some traps too, I think.

My Favs:
This is a sure thing: Indiana at -1.5. I expect full domination by Indiana here. They have all the pieces necessary defensively and offensively to control tempo the whole way through and blow this team out without flinching. I think Pacer's team chemistry and rhythm will outplay Detriot newly equipped team. Not much to say here, other than I think Vegas was silly to put Indiana at -1.5pts. I'm 90% confident of this game.

Note that Pacers will be playing Bulls the next day. They could have 1 eye to that game.

[lucasdawg]

i was considering rockets also..

[mattyg93]

Overall Record: 18-12
ytd: 4.4u

Another solid night going 4-1. Happy with the picks I made for the most part. Cavs showed something new last night and TWolves didn't look in normal form. Thought Memphis would push the tempo like they have been but decided to slow down against weak Celtics.

@Ralphalph Another good write up. I like your thoughts but I think I'm going to vary off a bit in plays today. I won't be touching the Indiana game. Detroit can match up with them pretty well imo. No advantage on the interior. I think Pistons are a solid team this year but would like to know more about them before I take them in a game like this. Pacers also play the bulls tomorrow which might keep playing time low.
I actually like the under on the Nets game. Both teams are in need of a win but Utah hasn't shown they can score at all. Scored 98 against a Westbrookless Thunder. I think we are looking at a defensive battle. This all depends on where the line gets posted on my site. I'd ride with the over at 188. I'd Go under at 191.
Probly wont touch the Kings and Hawks game because I think it will be pretty sloppy. Could easily go over if the Kings try to play fast but they are one of the slowest tempo teams in the game and I don't think they will try to run with the Hawks. Staying away though.
Knicks need to show up for 1 game this year. It could be tonight but Bobcats coming off a terrible loss might show some energy. I might be interested in the Half Time line of this game in favor of the knicks.
Vegas showing a lot of faith in the Pelicans tonight. Will most likely roll with the suns.

With all this being said, you seem pretty confident in your picks. Go with what you feel. I will be posting my picks later today when official lines come out on Bovada.

[imarkp]

Ralphalph, like ind. play. actually like matchups. ind # 1 d pts in paint det. # 2 o pts. in paint. something gotta give. det been playing a little sloppy and ind will take advantage if det. plays like they did against celts. which gives me a play on the over. agree with chemistry angle. should be fun game to watch. . btw. had gs. last night. nice play. philly 3-0 was a mirage, and lac/hou o . what a crazy game. 144pt first half. hammered o104.5 in 2nd half . was like free money. gl both of you on your picks

[Ralphalph]

Thanks you guys...I have some new thoughts and revised projections.

Ind V. Det. I don't think I had the full scope on this game because I obviously didn't read the injury report. Jennings is back in the lineup and George Hill* is having some hip issues. George Hill is a game time decision, but there's no question to me he will play; this team wants to stay unbeaten. I still like this bet, although I much more doubtful of this play. I may wait til the last minute to bet it.

As for the Sacramento and Atlanta on the Over and Brooklyn and Jazz on the Over...I think you were completely right Matty; the facts simply don't bear my claims. Sacramento has the 2nd slowest offenses in the league, 29th in the league in fact. Sacramento and Atlanta are susceptible to sloppiness. I'm convinced Sacrament is a different creature this year. They have tenacity and more talent than last year. There was no doubt in my mind they were going to be whooped by both Clippers and Golden state, but that was to be expected becaus those teams are in another league. Much my reference to saying that Sacramento is a mix between "Clippers and [Houston]" is a founded on last year's unrefined Sacramento team. Last year they were 1st in offensive pace. They certainly have it in them to play that kind of basketball. I think Atlanta will bring that of Sacramento tonight because of Atlanta's porous defense. For those reasons, I still like the over, but I like Sacramento -2.5 even better. They have the homecrowd and are looking for redemption from those last two beatings by top tier opponents. I will make this play just before the game begins I think.

As for the Brooklyn and Jazz on the over...This is tricky because Jazz last year were defensive minded last year, but gave up those pieces. Now their full of youth and energy. This is a deep contrast to Brooklyn veteran. I think this is a dangerous to play the over because it could easily be defensive minded game on the part of Brooklyn. If Brooklyn comes out to play tonight, their gonna draw on their on their veteran defensive experience and rely on the 3pt. Brooklyn is 3rd in 3pointer attempts and 16th in offensive pace. Although, I'm more doubtful of over, if I had to lean either way, I'd definitely choose the over. I still like Jazz at +10.5. It's obvious to me that Jazz strength of schedule is the reason to their 0 and 3 start. Their poised to stay in this game no matter how difficult it gets. Jazz +10.5 is a must.

I like to compare Brooklyn and Knicks a lot...in my head I find them to very similar, tonight especially. Brooklyn or Knick's are poised for blowout and I think it's gonna be the Knicks. I think your right Matty, you gotta have some balls to take Knick's -9 without a preview of one good game thus far. So for that reason, I'm so much more inclined to take the first half at -5. I'll do more research and get on that before the game.

I've already put money on Phoenix +9 for $150 and Heat Team only at 100pts for $115. The Heat game is very interesting on lots of different levels. I think the 100pts for heat tonight is a sure thing.

Thanks for the feedback guys. I think I still have a lot to learn about betting, especially having more patience and looking at the bigger picture. I can be pretty streaky. I do my best during playoffs.

Quick question Matty...how much is each unit worth in your bankroll? $50,$75?

[imarkp]

I did read injury report earlier and saw George hill hip day to day. didn't see anything about paul George. knew Jennings was back. cheeks announced he's startings with stuckey. still think ind the more focused team even with the bulls on tap tomorrow. don't think det. has the pieces quite in place yet. smith playing the 3 and jacking up 3's. sure cheeks loves that. Jennings can be a bit of head case at times too. not my favorite play of day. that would be sac. but still like it. even though home dogs are 12-4 ats.

[Ralphalph]

I did read injury report earlier and saw George hill hip day to day. didn't see anything about paul George. knew Jennings was back. cheeks announced he's startings with stuckey. still think ind the more focused team even with the bulls on tap tomorrow. don't think det. has the pieces quite in place yet. smith playing the 3 and jacking up 3's. sure cheeks loves that. Jennings can be a bit of head case at times too. not my favorite play of day. that would be sac. but still like it. even though home dogs are 12-4 ats.

Holy cow...I did mean George Hill there. And yes, for all the reasons you stated, I also agree Indiana gotta Cover here.

[Shifty107]

Nice day yesterday Maty. Keep killing it mate.

[mattyg93]

1x Rockets +1.5 @-110
1x Heat -5.5 @-105
1x Spurs over 201 @-110
Teaser 1x Heat +2.2 Knicks -1 Rockets +9.5 @-110
Live Bet: 2nd Half Rockets under 104 @-100




Thank you shifty.
Ralphalph, my unit size is 25. I am still a student. When I get into the real world and make real money I will increase it.

[Ralphalph]

1x Rockets +1.5 @-110
1x Heat -5.5 @-105
1x Spurs over 201 @-110
Teaser 1x Heat +2.2 Knicks -1 Rockets +9.5 @-110

Could be more plays when halftime lines are out on my book. Looking at Heat halftime and Knicks halftime.

Thank you shifty.
Ralphalph, my unit size is 25. I am still a student. When I get into the real world and make real money I will increase it.

Cool...That's really smart man. Good job. I don't have the patience to do a to do unit betting :0( I just finished school, so I feel you with low bankrolling.

GL on your picks!

[Ralphalph]

Okay, I got the best pick tonight right here...no butts about it...Houston team total Over at 103pts @ -115. There it is fellas. That is the best winner tonight.

GL!

[mattyg93]

haha. love the confidence. I would be very happy if we can both take the rockets win and over. GL

[Ralphalph]

Wow, sad day to be a Knick's fan. Horrible effort today I accidently switched up the teams. Perhaps it was Brooklyn who was really poised for the blowout