Leans for Thursday 1/15/09

[KillaBeesSwarmin]

i'll be going cleveland -8.5. LBJ has been absolutely dominant against chicago in his career and i see this being a blow out(i'm hoping my book will put up a lebron prop today, i think he's going to go off for 35-11-10 tonight).

the most telling statistic for me is that cleveland is 10-3 this year ATS against teams that allow 99+ppg and 8-0 ATS against teams that score 99+ppg.

also over the last 3 seasons, CHI is 9-22 ATS when coming off a win as an underdog. couple that with them grinding last nights game out in toronto and i think the cavs win this one somewhere in the 15-20 range.

[ZHUMPY]

Blazers
Cavs

Moneyline Parlay. 100 to win 123.48

BOOK IT

[Dexter]

killa - the cavs are insane in just about every ats category.

[KillaBeesSwarmin]

i realized after typing that dexter, but i love that 8-0 stat.

[ZHUMPY]

CK, What do u like for college tnight?

[cocknocker]

ZHUMPY,

I am starting to like Wisconsin additionally to my opening straight plays.

I am waiting out Rhode Island to see if those consensus numbers translate into a point or more for me at home.

San Diego-19.5 I am playing that one straight with no cut on it

Utah State I will play at -15.5, as it looks like I am getting no love from the linemaker on that one because there is money on both sides of the fence.

That's it for my straight plays. The conference season is upon us, so you can look forward to me playing more college games now. I like the conference plays better than the out of conference plays. i have aguage on what the teams are actually going to do now. College basketball is easier than pro, especially when conference play begins.

[africanroller]

NHL

Bruins/Isles Over
Carolina
Montreal
Minny

Those are the best value

If you want to take the Bruins at -280 all the power to you.

[akharlip]

Bruins PL

[Sloanie29]

CK, i see Rhode island at +2 now. You think we have a chance of seeing 3?

Would you be playing this for your normal $300?

[ploben]

NHL

Bruins/Isles Over
Carolina
Montreal
Minny

Those are the best value

If you want to take the Bruins at -280 all the power to you.

Where does the BOS puckline need to be for it to be a value play for you?

[ManBearPig]

With so many college games today there were a bunch that stood out. I'm trying to narrow it down from here.

The * marks my favs so far.
4 PM *
Niagra -10
Wofford +2.5
Wisc Green Bay +1
Purdue -4
Northeastern -3

430 PM
Rider -3.5 *

5 PM
Butler -6.5

6 PM
Minnesota +6.5
SMU -30
E.Kentucky -1.5 *
UNC -15.5 *

7 PM
Boise St +8.5 *
Pepperdine +19

730 PM
ASU +1

[schaapattack]

What do you all think of The Citadel? I like them tonight.

[JohnMorr08]

On the College front I'm leaning - UNC and San Diego. Not playing too much because I plan on making BIG plays tomorrow. ** I do like that Northeastern line too... I'll look into that a bit more.

Good Luck guys!!

[africanroller]

I have stated before that I rarely play pucklines.

[cocknocker]

Sloanie29,

Yes I wil be playing these games for $300.00 apiece. I will continue to wait until i see the magic number 3, which isn't entirely inconceivable with consensus number like this. If the line goes to 3, then I can play them at +4 with a point buy, which is more than desireable for me to make my play. I'm going light today waiting for tomorrow to go heavy again. Tomorrow I am playing Milwaukee, New Orleans, Atlanta, and the Spurs are responsible for getting me back my money as well. With the majority of my plays being "Morrison" plays and also fading the two teams that went to triple overtime, I am sure to get a huge payday tomorrow, so today I'm kind of just chillin' out and taking it easy. Friday will be a MONSTER day for the road teams. Better get em early, and I mean as soon as the lines come out later on tonight type of early. The Spurs will absolutely crush the Sixers, the Bucks will dispatch of the tired Kings, New Orleans will give Cleveland the game of the day, especially catching the Cavs on the back end of a back to back situation (c'mon Bulls tonight, take them to overtime), and the hawks get to play the undermanned Warriors who also went to triple overtime. I am thinking very seriously of going to the Warriors game and watch that one in person now. They will be mixing minutes as Captain Jack will be back in the fold. I can't wait. I wish today was Friday!

[JGILL50]

When a team beats Boston they tend to lose the next game ATS.
Maybe when a teams gets the shit kicked out of them by the celtics they cover the next game
NJN +2
just a thought

[cocknocker]

Ho man, JohnMorr08,

I hear ya brother. Time to make up for the shortcomings of the week. I have extreme confidence in our plays for tomorrow that we discussed. Friday will easily be the biggest risk day of the year for me, with the possibility of having Christmas in January

[mjeecay]

Shall I begin to prepare the eggnog and shop for the Christmas movies we're bound to watch tomorrow as we splice to celebrate our achievements?

[djpremier36]

Roasthawg,

I'm with you on the PHO/DEN under...easily the best play of the night!

The number already dropped from 221 to 218.

[twitch66]

down 42% - hope today is my day. followed the theme here and went mostly college myself.

Northeastern -3½
Loyola Marymount +30
The Citadel Pk
-
4 Team Parlay
Connecticut -12
Carolina -15
UCLA -11
Florida Atlantic -4
-
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Chicago Bulls Over 196

[cocknocker]

Still no love for Rhode Island. Xavier has played the 3rd toughest schedule in collge basketball (with Temple #1 and Pittsburgh #2 and Idaho State #4) so I am a little puzzled as to why the linemaker isn't giving me any more juice for Rhode Island playing the 4th ranked team in the nation. C'mon, man give me some more juice!

[cocknocker]

yeah, roastie,

That totals line is inflated just as I thought...

[-*MeMpHiS*-]

Losing 2 players from the starting line-up has to hurt you in some way. How is Portland still favored?

[MVFC182]

*This season, Chicago have only won 5 games straight up away and then lost the following game by a minimum of 8 points (and failed ATS). Two of which have been at home.
*I can only find two games this season where Chicago has covered the spread back-to-back, irregardless of when are where they are playing.
*Any news on Gooden guys?
*The Cavs are on fire at the moment and well rested, compared to the Bulls.

Unless the Bulls pull out some miracle tomorromw, I seriously can't see them losing by less than 10. And trends from this season such as back-to-back spread covers (they covered Toronto last night) and losing after winning on the road. Signs do point to the Cavs.

Some more tibits...
~Cleveland is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Chicago
~Cleveland is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
~Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
~Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Only thing I don't like is...
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

I'm playing this one LARGE


ps. are you a Melbourne Victory fun?

Thanks man, just reinforced my pick, feeling pretty confident about this one, playing both the -8 and -10 lines.

Yeah I am a Melbourne fan, heading to the game tonight, hopefully we can get a bit closer to top spot.

[cheesehead004]

I'm taking Purdue -2.5 1H today. I have a gut feeling they are going to pound NW wire to wire all over the court today, and I'm going with it.

[roasthawg]

Roasthawg,

I'm with you on the PHO/DEN under...easily the best play of the night!

The number already dropped from 221 to 218.

Yeah, glad I jumped on it early at 220. Anything can happen but imo it's a good bet.

[cocknocker]

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, aye aye aye! I have a associate/friend that's from Australia.. He's an Aborigne (did i spell that right?) Whenever he comes around he is the life of the party. Man that dude can slam some shots. And he's killing the ladies because he is as dark as I am with bright blue eyes. He has some pictires of some gorgeous women from out there, some of them look almost Pinoy. The he has his homies back home and some of them have tattoos on their faces, which is a scary thought in its'self. He said that they are a rough crew and live in remote areas. One thing that I remember was one tme he was over for one of our bar-b-ques, and we had some Heinekens and no bottle opener. Dude took my spatula and opened up the bottles like it was the thing to do. I have never seen that before or since. I have never been to Australia, i mught have to make that one of my destinations before i craok, with the other one being going to Egypt and see the Nile and the Valley of Kings. For some odd reason, I want a picture of me standing with the Sphinx behind me holding my nuts, lol! And then I want to blow it up and put it in our bedroom!

[cocknocker]

Good sign for San Diego and Gonzaga backers. There is NO FIRST HALF MONEYLINE, which of course means that the linemaker fully expects for this one to get out of hand very quickly. And since there is no moneyline, I am gonna take them both in the 1st half -11 as well for light plays as sweeteners!

[Killer Chihuahua]

CK
Im having a hard time getting a handle on this Cavs game.....On the surface to me, this line is too low. Clev is laying-8(which I would buy down to that key number 7) to a team who is much the inferior. Cavs had an easy win on Tuesday in memphis while the Bulls played tough in a win in Toronto! I have this game capped at double digets yet I cant seem to pull the trigger. With all the trends in clevlands favor, why does this smell? Is this line meant to stop the savvy bettor from laying the wood? If this line was at -10 would more large bettors be players thinking the line is right? This smells like the Orlando game from Tuesday where the line was a little deflated (-8), thus everyone saying it was a trap only to have orland smoke Sacramento in SAC. What is your opinion on this game? I saw you were not on this and just wanted another fellow cappers opinion. Thanks for your time!

[Devon]

Haha nice one CK! Yeah you definitely have to come out here sometime. The atmosphere in Melbourne is pretty far out- great night life, great chicks and sports capital down under. And then you gotta check out the 'outback'! lol

Lol i'm gonna miss this place, heading up to the states for college in fall!

Good luck capping today all!

[maddogmadden86]

Hey CK check out quntra systems PWR, just bought some at 18 when the dow hit 7995, its a great obama clean eletric play

[cocknocker]

Alright, i am gonna check it out, maddog PWR. It even sounds like it's gonna make money just by the symbol!

[solobass]

Killer, also look for Ben Wallace to be more of a factor in the Cavs game and will make CHI half court sets more problematic. I am taking Cavs-7.5

[tblueeyes]

I really like the Cavs -8 tonight against the bulls, cleveland has a power rating of 15 which shows they clearly have the edge in this game, not to mention they are 8-0 ats vs the bulls 7-4. I am going to put a nice size wager on the Cavs tonight, anyone see a reason why i shouln't?

[africanroller]

Man its almost 4 and I can only find 1 game to play. Watching everything and all the games I am looking at seem 50/50. I think I may just jump with the UNC blowout and Northwestern.

locked in Play Bruins/Isles O/5.5