Leans for Thursday 1/15/09

[cocknocker]

On this day I don't particularly like the card that much. And after the heartburn I had last night losing by a half point, I am playing college basketball tonight instead of the NBA, lol.

The Rhode Island Rams are playing Xavier, a high profile team to be sure, but I don't think that the Rams should be getting points at home. And although it's only 1.5, I still like the chanves of them getting the job done. i have this game capped out at Rhode island winning by 4, so I will take them to get the upset victory at home tonight.

Rhode Island+1.5 or 2 by tomorrow morning

San Diego is playing great basketball right now, ad they not only have the home court advantage in this game, but they have a decidedly bigger advantage in the talent depratment over a weak Pepperdine squad. I see this one as a wire to wore job, and I have capped this game out to have San Diego winning by 20 or more points.

San Diego-19.5 Pepperdine doesn't have a prayer (30 point loss)

Utah State will lose no home games in the WAC this year, and that's the long and short of it. I think that they have the best ream in the WAC this year and should easily win the conference outright in my opinion. Logan is a tough place to play. I will take the home team to get the job done in this nightmare of a matchup for the Bulldogs. The line (-16) may look a little strange, but this one has blowout written all over it. These are not your fathers' Running Rebel squad.

Utah State-15.5 (buying a hook) They should win this one by 20

I also like to dip into the Big10 every now and then, and there's one game in particular that I just can't refuse to throw a couple of dollars on. Give me them Badgers at home. Minnesota goes down big!

Wisconsin-6 by gametime

[cocknocker]

The line for Rhode Island is down to +1 already...

[pubster77]

Utah, San Diego, St. Marys and Gonzaga are going to win for sure.

Isnt there some way I can make money with this information?

[ploben]

The line for Rhode Island is down to +1 already...

Buy the point and get it over with before it goes PK?

[pubster77]

So far im thinking of Butler/Utah State using a 4 point teaser.

Butler -3
Utah -12

[pubster77]

Actually I think Citadel -1.5 looks like my favourite line right now. Furman hasnt looked good against anybody.

[cocknocker]

Dexter, do me a favor and write down Milwaukee Friday 1/16. i know a way that we can get our Spurs money back. I have now had 4 shots post Spurs/Lakers and just had an epiphany, a moment of clarity. This one is gonna be sweet.

[cheesehead004]

Tomorrow = strictly hockey for me. 4 team ML Parlay, $300 pays $1130: Boston, Montreal, Detroit, San Jose. Lock it up.

No basketball lines really jumped out at me.

[danrman]

here's a winner for tomorrow.. take the bulls... cleve has a fri espn tv game vs new orleans and then on the road to the lakers and a 3 game road trip.. the bulls tanked their game vs. western conf blazers knowing they had a divisional game w/ eastern power cleve. on national television... all the money will be on lebron.. take the bulls

[cocknocker]

Don't play them yet. Let's wait and see if Rhode Island becomes favored or gets another point. With a 1-7 ats mark against Xavier, the public will be pounding Xavier hard, thinking these are the same old sorry ass Rams. This version of the squad is good. The line alone proves there's some doubt, otherwise it would be as big or bigger than all of the other games between these two at Rhode Island

[SportNut]

My local book won't take college basketball, what a jerk!!

[cocknocker]

Considering that on top of the Nets playing the Celtics, they also had overtime in their previous game, so I think that i will ride with Portland 1st half if the line is right.

[djpremier36]

Here's my two cents ..... I'm leaning towards the PHO/DEN under of 221.

We all now that PHO is playing in the post D'Antoni era so past season scores aren't as much of a factor here. Shaq Diesel is getting a lot of touches in the half court set as of late. Their last game in December finished with a total of 209, with both teams shooting over 48%.

Also, DEN has gone under in their past two games at home. They have also shot under 50% in their last three, all without Melo.

Hopefully the public sees PHO/DEN and pounds the over so the line can go up a bit.

Also looking at Purdue -4 vs Northwestern. Not sure if this game qualifies as a "trap'.

[LETS GET IT]

basketball is ugly tonight, heres how I see it:


Phoenix +2, its on TNT, suns always come to play on their nationally televised games so I'm gonna ride that

Cleveland -8.5- Lebron is just too much right now, and the bulls are too inconsistent, even though they'e
coming off a good win, I don't see them replicating that effort on Thursday. To be safe, I'd buy a point

Portland: Line isn't up yet, however I think they'll be favored by 4-6 points, if it's 6 I'll buy down to five and take them over the Nets who played last night and who seem to struggle at home. In addition to that, Portland is coming off a bad loss to a team which they probably should have beat, look to them to bounce back strong


I also like Xavier, I've been riding them all year and UCLA to scrape tonight,

opinions??

[cocknocker]

Sticking to the college theme, here's a dinner parlay (games starting around 4 or 4:30 pst)

Florida Atlantic-4.5
Wofford+2.5
Canisius+4

[wangichu]

Considering that on top of the Nets playing the Celtics, they also had overtime in their previous game, so I think that i will ride with Portland 1st half if the line is right.

that's exactly where i started my looks... blazers are good at getting off early in games and the nets can get off to slow starts at home.

POR 1st half

denver and phoenix historically take and cover their games at home and i really think the nuggets can hold down home court in a just win situation (no spurs or lakers involved here thankfully) phoenix still isn't good enough defensively and denver can outslug a team even without melo.

DEN -1.5

[LETS GET IT]

my 3 team college teaser, i know this is the NBA thread but nobody uses the ncaa thread and it seems like everyone puts their picks here so here goes nothing

3 TEAS FB 10 PT
[508] FLA ATLANTIC +1½-110 (B+6)
[536] NEW MEXICO STATE -2-110 (B+6)
[562] PORTLAND U -½-110 (B+6)

[wangichu]

thinking i might also play chicago first half riding into the game with some momentum and desparately trying to put a game on lebron and friends. I think they can hang for a half if nothing else.

CHI +5 1st half? (i'll play it a little more if i could get it at 6)

[MVFC182]

Is there any reason why Cavs dont cover against Bulls?
Cavs are a great road team and I have not been impress with Chicago as of late, 2-6 ATS. Add that to Cavs blowing em out in Chicago just 2 weeks ago, I reckon they roll by double digits atleast.
The power rating for this game is Cleveland -16
Whats does everyone else think?

[mixbakes]

CK, what do you think of going PHO+2@DEN?

[Dexter]

Dexter, do me a favor and write down Milwaukee Friday 1/16. i know a way that we can get our Spurs money back. I have now had 4 shots post Spurs/Lakers and just had an epiphany, a moment of clarity. This one is gonna be sweet.

-a 3OT win - too bad they dont play tonight.

-i think that Dr. John Morrison may be on board as well.

1 play for me tonight - i'm gonna roll with the blazers in nj. their last 2 visits to nj resulted in wins by an avg margin of 22 pts (i have my line set at port -5). fernandez and blake will likely be out - but i expect roy to control the game, while aldridge cleans up against the nets poor interior. both teams are on back to back having been blown out - i'm basically just siding with the better team, as both should have equal desire/fatigue etc..

-blazers

[strybie]

CLE -8.5
Pho @ den is a difficult one ...

[Dexter]

here's a winner for tomorrow.. take the bulls... cleve has a fri espn tv game vs new orleans and then on the road to the lakers and a 3 game road trip.. the bulls tanked their game vs. western conf blazers knowing they had a divisional game w/ eastern power cleve. on national television... all the money will be on lebron.. take the bulls

gun to head, thats who i would play as well. but no play for me....

[Devon]

Is there any reason why Cavs dont cover against Bulls?
Cavs are a great road team and I have not been impress with Chicago as of late, 2-6 ATS. Add that to Cavs blowing em out in Chicago just 2 weeks ago, I reckon they roll by double digits atleast.
The power rating for this game is Cleveland -16
Whats does everyone else think?

*This season, Chicago have only won 5 games straight up away and then lost the following game by a minimum of 8 points (and failed ATS). Two of which have been at home.
*I can only find two games this season where Chicago has covered the spread back-to-back, irregardless of when are where they are playing.
*Any news on Gooden guys?
*The Cavs are on fire at the moment and well rested, compared to the Bulls.

Unless the Bulls pull out some miracle tomorromw, I seriously can't see them losing by less than 10. And trends from this season such as back-to-back spread covers (they covered Toronto last night) and losing after winning on the road. Signs do point to the Cavs.

Some more tibits...
~Cleveland is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Chicago
~Cleveland is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
~Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
~Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Only thing I don't like is...
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons

I'm playing this one LARGE


ps. are you a Melbourne Victory fun?

[mixbakes]

anyone thinking of going bulls +8.5?

[chalupa]

loved last night rode the hell out of the lakers. big night. i had the lakers straight teased them with the heat and had the over. i am wit ck tonight i don not like any nba at all. goin to sit out tonight and wait for tomorrow since i had big night.

[chalupa]

i think anytime the the lakers are getting pts or the over is less than 210 u have to ride the hell out of the lakers.

[chaseman]

anyone thinking of going bulls +8.5?

I am taking the Bulls, but not at +8.5. It may be a double-digit spread by gametime, so give that one a few hours if you're planning on taking Chicago.

[zackattack]

i think anytime the the lakers are getting pts or the over is less than 210 u have to ride the hell out of the lakers.

hey chalupa......great that you won.........but most of us had spurs last night........so show a little class ok?

[ploben]

hey chalupa......great that you won.........but most of us had spurs last night........so show a little class ok?

He is making a statement zach...come on now. He could have said "What are you guys thinking?? Take the points anytime LA gets it"

Let's just keep it constructive.

[zackattack]

he can start his own thread.......he doesn't need to post in ck's thread how he won big because of the lakers when he knows that ck's big play of the day was spurs.........yes its fine that he won but its the wrong time to be talking about the lakers.

[Dexter]

the cards were no match for the eagles in philly on thanksgiving night, but this game should be much different in arizona. the cards are clearly a much better home than road team (6-3ats) and they are actually catching 4. the line is currently doing what it should with the public on the eagles at 60% - bottom line, i trust warner>mcnabb (1-4 in nfc championship games) in the big game.

-cards
_________________
my early lean was on the steelers, but i think the ravens may have something special here in joe flacco - he is the first rookie qb to win 2 playoff games (and they've been on the road). granted, its the defense winning for balt, but flacco is playing like a veteran and doing what is asked by a very smart coaching staff - these are just too many points to pass up imo for a ravens team that has gone 8-2 ats on the road (7-3 ats as a dog) - the ravens lost by 3 earlier in the year at pitt, and a similar close game should result.

-ravens
_________________

[mp5070]

the cards were no match for the eagles in philly on thanksgiving night, but this game should be much different in arizona. The cards are clearly a much better home than road team (6-3ats) and they are actually catching 4. The line is currently doing what it should with the public on the eagles at 60% - bottom line, i trust warner>mcnabb (1-4 in nfc championship games) in the big game.

-cards
_________________
my early lean was on the steelers, but i think the ravens may have something special here in joe flacco - he is the first rookie qb to win 2 playoff games (and they've been on the road). Granted, its the defense winning for balt, but flacco is playing like a veteran and doing what is asked by a very smart coaching staff - these are just too many points to pass up imo for a ravens team that has gone 8-2 ats on the road (7-3 ats as a dog) - the ravens lost by 3 earlier in the year at pitt, and a similar close game should result.

-ravens
_________________

philly and pit in superbowl

fading both of your picks

[Jm5900]

Someone tell me I'm wrong the spurs were -2.5 ML between -139 and -150 being the highest I saw it depending on the site u use. Well for everyone that bought a point (including me) -1.5 @ -130 wouldn't it be worth it to take the ML! It would have been an extra 10 bucks per hundred for most of us that's worth a 1.5 pints in my opinion.

In other words for me this is a lesson learned the hard way but next time a small spread where the game is projected to go either way pretty much I'm taking the ML for an extra 10 bucks!!

[africanroller]

Wow Wake and Charlotte both win to end the night a lot better then I thought when I went to sleep. I was looking at an 0-5 night . Still not happy going 2-3 but at least it got better. I did learn a valuable lesson about playing a game to early yesterday and if I waited I would have been on the winning end.

1 early play for me so Far Bruins/Isles Over