Leans for Thursday 1/8/09

[BmoreBucco]

OK, did a little research and came up with some picks. In addition to the New Mexico State and Gators play I posted earlier, I'm going with:

NYK +8.5 (bought hook) (love that D'antoni is so familiar with Dallas)
NHL Florida -120
Pac-10 Teaser - Stanford/Oregon/Oregon State

Also gonna try to hedge my huge Florida bet with a small ML for Oklahoma. Gonna wait til just before gametime as that ML just keeps climbing. CK, am I doing that correctly? Trying to hop on the smart finances train...

[ManBearPig]

Wright St's leading scorer may be out tonight for all you Wright St backers...if anyone cares or can read this.

[akharlip]

CK,
What margin do u think Gators will win by...
I want to put a little something on the point margin
i know you'll prob think waste of money but want to make it more interesting anyway lol

[alittlemoresound]

Whats the news on the Quater plays in the Florida game ?? I got florida 1 Q

[stakagrp]

Zackattack,
Hey can you keep track of the wins and losses with the theory going against espn? I'm sure everyone would like to see how well this works. I know I'll definitely jump on it.

Can anyone give their input for O/U for the Knicks and Spurs game tonight? The line dropped from 185.5 to 181 for the Spurs and went from 207 to 212 for the Knicks game. We all know that the Spurs can score close to 100 at home with the horrible defense that Clips has, but how much would the Clippers put up or how will the pace of the game go? Any thoughts CK or anyone?

I went over to Covers.com and they had the same picks as you CK with Spurs and Knicks. That kind of worries me because they seem to do horrible on their picks.

[LUNT101]

Zack, cool theory. How long have you been looking at that and how is it working?

CK,

I like the SA pick tonight and agree the Spurs are in a good spot to cover. As I ride along with that pick, I see great value in the Spurs first quarter line as well. I did this last night with the PC Play as well and took the Cavs in the first quarter and made some extra dough there. The Spurs have come out their last 3 games playing very good basketball in the first quarter, beating Memphis, Philadelphia and Miami by 8, 21, and 6 points respectively. The Clippers, a similarly below average team, had a very late lead in Dallas two nights ago and got the win snatched out from under them. They now find themselves in San Antonio against a hungry team who knows they haven't been playing as good a brand of basketball as they can. After all, we're talking about a team that went up 40-19 in the first quarter against the Sixers and won by a basket at home, and followed that up with a trip to Miami which also ended up a lot closer than they would have liked (its important to notice that they played well in the first quarter of both of those games, though).

Now, to combine two of the angles that you mentioned (1. LA is coming off a hard fought game against another superior team and theoretically should be mentally drained; 2. The Clippers lack depth), take a look at this information:

The Clippers guys have been playing a TON of minutes the past 2 games.

January 4th, L 87-88 vs. Detroit (another hard fought game where they were in it the entire way)
Eric Gordon - 44 min
Marcus Camby - 42 min
Al Thornton - 40 min
Mardy Collins - 42 min

January 6th, L 102-107 @ Dallas
Eric Gordon - 41 min
Marcus Camby - 40 min
Al Thornton - 41 min
Mardy Collins - 45 min

In contrast, the Spurs best 4 played 36(Duncan), 31(Parker), 28(Mason), and 27(Ginobili) minutes in the same time span. So, since January 4th, the Clip's best 4 have played a combined 335 minutes, while the Spurs 4 have played 122. Combine all of this information with the fact that the Clippers have had 1 day off before this game while the Spurs have had 2, and you're looking at a blowout first quarter for San Antonio.

*San Antonio 1Q -4

[Killer Chihuahua]

Lunt,
I would say you are on to something but it might be the second quarter that the spurs get it going. With that much time off they may have alittle rust on the old bones. 2nd quarter and 1st half spurs roll! Just my two cents that is probably not worth a penny

[cocknocker]

Well, Lunt101
It's kind of hard to remain focused when you have that gorgeous oiled up girl in your avatar, but that's a whole lot of points for San Antonio to cover in the 1st quarter, but it must be that high for a reason. Why not, give it a go homes. The only way that i would take it is if it is +100 or better for the Spurs.

[LUNT101]

I'm not getting that good odds but I've made the bet anyway. Thanks for the PC Play yesterday btw.

[danrman]

i've followed the espn thing before for a while and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesnt so be careful.. also remember that during the day they sometimes change the information they put up so again be careful

[schaapattack]

WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT TEASING YOUR PICKS CK. FLA PK, SA -8.5, NYK +12.5, DREX +8.5, NM ST. PK, But -3? +450

[danrman]

can anyone tell me why n. mex st is such an overwhelming pick today please.. thank you

[IrwinFletcher]

Love this spot for the Knickers tonight.. coming off a huge loss to the worst team in the league playing against a Mavs team who doesn't like to cover the number at home as they tend to play up or down to their "perceived" competition. D'Antoni knows the west well as their record v. NBA west, especially teams over .500. Dallas in a look ahead having to travel to face the Suns in PHX tomorrow.. waiting to see if the line moves to 9 or better.. Also, loving the over in this spot.. unless this game hits OT it should stay around 205...

Clipps are without key players and with the current roster having played the equivalent of 3 games in their last two.. they will be sucking wind.. I look for the Spurs to get out and run, clamp down on D and blow the clipps off in the first half. Since the Spurs don't play again until Sunday, Coach Pop will look to get some good minutes in for everyone and not let up off the gas..

[ManBearPig]

can anyone tell me why n. mex st is such an overwhelming pick today please.. thank you

Cuz NV just lost to Idaho and everyone is on the hater train with them right now. I would tread lightly because they may lose but I myself would be shocked with a blowout. I'm a big fan of them and know what they're capable of everyone else just sees them lose and assumes they suck ass. NMSU should win as they are tough at home but we have been one of the few teams to have success against them in the past couple yrs. My honest opinion though is if they don't lose they should cover tonight.

[cocknocker]

danrman,

It's simple. New mexico State has won every game that they were expected to win and lost every game they were expected to lose according to the oddsmakers so the season has gone as expected so far. They will win the WAC as they have the strongest team in the WAC in my opinion. Just think how good they would be right now if Reggie Theus had stayed. But they won the WAC as co-champions last year, and they have strong group of players 2 freshmen, 2 sophomores and a junior on the floor in their starting lineup, so they are young inexperienced and still winning. Nevada is just not as strong as in years' past. Nevada is 2-4 ats in their last 6 road games, and straight up as well. They are also 2-4 ats in their last 6 games playing at NMSU. On top of that they are 0-3 ats in their last 3 barely beating a pathetic Idaho squad and Idaho State as well, wrapped around a blowout loss to the Tarheels. New Mexico State could very easily be 3-0 ats coming into this game if not for a half point loss to New Mexico in a game they had opportunities to win outright.

NMSU is 14-2 straight up at home in their last 16 games. They make 7-3 three's per game to Nevada's 4.5. I'm saying that they are going to be among the elite in conference and Nevada is not. Nevada is just stepping stone to their ascension to the conference throne. i have them pegged as winning this game by 15 actually.

[zackattack]

stackagrp,

i will keep track for as long as it works in our favor....

lunt,

i kept track for about 2 weeks before i placed a wager on it........it definately seemed to produce way more wins then losses.
the first game i used was hornets to cover vs lakers 3 days ago and also over in same game.....2-0
then yesterday i used 6 games.....1 hockey, 1cbb 4 nba..........went 5-1....total are 7-1 but of course that percentage will decrease......especially using hockey dogs.

[zackattack]

CK i heard that curry may play tonight for knicks.......do you think he impacts this game at all?

[Dexter]

and here goes the total - up to 70 in most spots...

[BmoreBucco]

Just took a little "for fun" parlay:

Flor/Ok under 70.5 (bought a half)
SAS -13
Montana -3.5 (bought hook)

$25 to win $136

[Pensinger1]

CK - with 71% on New Mexico, the line has dropped to -4.5..

With NM being 6-1 at home this year and averaging 78.5 pts/gm (compared to 69.5 for NEV) I completely agree with your analysis, but I can't pull the trigger. I hate placing wagers against RLM.. could there be some match-up problems for NM that we are missing?

[shoebox]

Booked plays

Florida -5
Knickerbockers +8.5
Spurs/clipps over 183
spurs -13.5

good luck!

[Dexter]

booked plays-

florida -5.5 (large)
over florida 70 (large)
knicks +8

good luck all...

[akharlip]

LOCKED PLAYS:
Florida -4
Florida ML (HEAVY)
Spurs -13
NYK-=9.5(Bought a point)
New Mexico St-5

BOL

[nonsense48]

CK, thunder is +7 tomorrow. is that what you saw?

[vassman86]

booked plays-

florida -5.5 (large)
over florida 70 (large)
knicks +8

good luck all...

GL to us both! Those are my only three plays for today. Still pondering about taking the Spurs -13. I think the Spurs will be nailing a lot of three's.

[danrman]

no personal play today and i still havent made up my mind on the okla-fla. game for those who care.. will release a pick on it before the game for those who care

[BigMoneyMan]

Take a teaser with the Nicks and Spurs. Bot the line are a little inflated. I am also playing Iowa and Eastern Kentucky college hoops

[Smacksmiter]

Taking the NYKnickerbockers +8..

The LA Clippers +13....something is going on here with the Clipps...covering 4 of the last 5 with this mess of a lineup...I am not going to buck the trend here against a Spurs squad that wins but doesnt cover well...

Florida Gators.. -4... locked it in earlier in the week...large

Good luck!

[wangichu]

line is moving back down on the big game tonight... -5.5 on sportsbook and -5 on the greek with regular juice... imho the books were able to generate the kind of late action on OU that they needed (smart OU bettors have waited for the public to play florida and most sharp FLA bettors have already posted) so the line is settling back in... i'm waiting until shortly before game time here, then buying back down to 4. I waited on this game because i really expected a lot more OU homers to drop large on their sooners while actually catching points and while i'm not going to be rewarded, waiting my get me something a little more normal.

Other than that, although i initially thought opposite of CK, i think the spurs should handle business here after that last buzzer beater against the sixers. The rest should be what the old men need to play at their high level against a tired shorthanded clip squad who has really played over their head and covered large spreads against the lowly mavs in dallas to inflate their road value.

SA -13

as far as the knicks, i think d'antoni has a shot at revenge here and i think it is too fishy that they catch less points on the road than they lost by at home in a revenge game, and that is only explained by a probable cover.

NYK +8.5

[shoebox]

CK, thunder is +7 tomorrow. is that what you saw?

Sonics +7.5 on thegreek

[nonsense48]

evening ladies and gents, i have always been taught that a good defense will beat a good offense better than 85% of the time. this cfb game has me somewhat perplexed tonite as i like the strong offense of okla getting the 6 points against a strong defense of fla but what i've been taught as a very young man is the opposite of what i'm doing here. go figure. we shall soon see. my picks for this eve are locked in as follows:cfb okla+6 cbb n.mex-4' nba s.a.-13 nyn+8 for a nickle each. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE. PEACE AND BLESSED BE.

[joanapoker]

So final plays for 2 night:

FLORIDA-4 (CK)
New Mexico St -5 (CK)
LAC/SA OVER 182 (clippers are scoring some points, even do the Spurs have a thought defense they also can shoot some hoops. In past 10 games both teams are 7-3 to the Over, let's hope it keep that way)
NK+8 x SA-13 (small play)

Good luck all

P.S. btw CK did u play the New Mexico straight up?

[Dexter]

nonsense - gluck brutha

[nonsense48]

nonsense - gluck brutha

thanks DEX. which way did you go this eve? BTW...KILLER AVATAR. i thought the thunder would be getting more than the posted +7' tomorrow

[shoebox]

thanks DEX. which way did you go this eve? BTW...KILLER AVATAR. i thought the thunder would be getting more than the posted +7' tomorrow

Nonsense,

lets hope that there will be plenty of public donations as Houston beat up on Boston, then a perfect time to strike brotha!