Leans for Thursday 1/8/09

[strictlywinners]

Love to see you on the Knicks my man, you really think we are going to see this line go to 10, I see it the other way, I feel like it will continue to drop. Whatever I also have Knicks straight up to win. I would love to get you off your Florida play but I know thats not going to happen, so I wish you luck.

[ragiche]

So,the chalk for tonight's game will be SAS-13.5 or whatever the spread may be.Am i right CK.Cause i also pick SA but when i saw the line it's kinda shocking because with the clipps undermaned they should be given a -15 or -16. I think that the spurs will cover this one with the spurs experience and depth of the bench of the spurs(only refering the benches of both team) will have an advantage.So my conclusion is a blowout.I'm with you this CK.(already locked playing heavy).In the other game i'm gonna pass on this one or i'm just play over 1st qtr. 108 for a small play.

[UndersSuck]

my site now has Fla at -6. I think the Gators are gonna win handily...but at what number do the Gators stop having value??

[cocknocker]

ragiche,

I'm gonna smoke and wait for the Spurs line to go down a bit more and then lay the hammer on them at -11.5.

[zackattack]

Zack,

I like your theory why dont you keep a record of fading espn under your tag, thanks buddy. I know one thing there horrendous at picking baseball.

can you explain how i do that.....i tried to figure it out and couldn't get it....thx, shoe

[Dfjay9]

I'm riding Florida tonight. I don't think Oklahoma can score 60 points on that defense let alone 35. Florida is too quick. I know its cliche but it's true. SEC is too quick. We all know Oklahoma has a great defense But really, the question is not if Florida wins but by how much imo. I might be biased in this one b/c I'm a florida fan but come on guys. Florida is solid in all 3 aspects of the game. Oklahoma only is on offense. Special Teams win this game with some defense sprinkled in for the spice. We all know they say special teams is Urban Meyer's bread and butter.

Gl boys, I might ride the Knicks with you guys also.

PS - CK, We're talking stocks now? I advised all of my friends to buy some JBLU (Jet Blue Airways) when it was 3 and some change. The markets been decreasing its up to 7 and some change. I expect it to recover even further. Take a look.

[chipper8888]

chipper8888,

all of my college games are doing exactly what the line is supposed to do. With 87% of bettos on Virginia Commonwealth the line was supposed to go up on their side.

.

Sorry fella i was actually talking about tonights football game, when i looked y/day afternoon i saw at -3 now its up to -5.5

[alittlemoresound]

Jet blue stock? to rise how much in 1 year ?

SO ck u riding florida with the spread ?

[Dfjay9]

Seeing as its already rose 50%. If the market turns around with a surge upward then its impossible to predict. If the market continues its up and down trends then it will rise 5-15 cents per day until oil prices begin to rise. I'm thinking of dumping some more $ into it and selling next week. I suggest as with gambling, you do your own research though.

[Dfjay9]

Hey guys I see some value in this alt line. Anyone else?

Fl -10 +150

[akharlip]

CK,
The line for new mexico st went down
pounded them hard as it looks like a good matchup
whats ur thought on it going down to 4.5?

[BmoreBucco]

OK, went 4-1 yesterday with a big PC win. For the record, which I posted before the games yesterday, my plays were as follows yesterday:

W Denver -5.5 standard (my pick)
W PC -13.5 (hook buy) BIG
W Utah -3.5 (hook buy) standard (board pick)
W Louisville -10 (hook buy) standard (my pick)
L Michigan -7.5 (hook buy) (after wallowing around and being down 17 at half, only missed the cover by a bucket!)

So, onto today, I have already locked:

New Mexico State -5.0 (hook buy)(CK) standard
Florida -5.5 (Made a lot of money fading Big 12 D's this bowl season. Santa suits should have been required uniforms for these clowns). BIG

Have a little time for some research, I'll be back later to post a pick or two and see if the board has any tasty treats.

[cocknocker]

akharlip,

Take it down to 4 and pound it like that.

Dfjay,

No. Hit it the normal way. The line will go up to 6 with ease on this one by gametime. The gators wil win by a touchdown or more, but taking your line to 10 means taht they will have to win by two touchdowns in order for you to get your win. You are effectively making your spread 14 by taking your line to 10. And that is not a good thing to do. It decreases your chance at getting the cover.

[BmoreBucco]

akharlip,

Yep, looks like I should have waited on buying the New Mexico hook. I would have gotten it down to the key number, but I still feel good about it. It is weird though, I jumped early cause it had gone from 5 to 5.5, so I didn't want it to go any higher. I just hope NM St's leading scorer didn't just get caught pooping in his girlfriend's laundry!

[Mr Handicapable]

CK,

Love your work Have a question for you about my Pacers! Dunleavy finally got back and gives them another solid scorer although their post defense is still nonexistent! Do you think their bad record will give them some line value now? They can definitely score and should be able to outgun the lower rung Eastern teams! The books have caught up w/their overs and are posting lines like last nights 226!
Thanks for all your help!!

[akharlip]

ya no doubt
the reason i asked ck is cause i jumped on it already at 5(bought a hook) figuring it would rise but then saw it dropped a whole point

BOL

[cocknocker]

Mr. Handicapable,

The Pacers will be fine in the east, with a little work on the point guard situation. Jack is a better point man than TJ Ford. Ford has no business starting for that team as he is a better scorer than distributor. He needs to be with the second team and be installed in the game to score and be more of a short two, to take advantage of his natural abilities. Jamal Tinsley needs to be dealt to another team for a banger with some height, scoring ability and attitude. One good trade that comes to my mind would be to send him and cash to Oklahoma City for Joe Smith and Earl Watson. That trade would immediately make the Pacers a much better team. Joe Smith is a journeyman and will not be a high risk to sign for a 2 year stint, and Earl Watson gives them a true point guard that won't cause ripples on the team because of his good nature.

[ManBearPig]

stakagrp,

I am surprised that joanapoker is the only one who spoke up about the impending blowout on tap this evening of New Mexico State over Nevada. This is more a pick against Nevada than a pick for New Mexico State. I don't really know how good (though I do know that they are good)New Mexico State is, but i do know that Nevada is garbage. And just for the record, I will be playing college hoops on Saturday during the day. We are in the conference now, and I have a pretty good guage on what to expect from the teams now, and the averages are set in stone. Look for me to start playing some of these college games straight. I have quite a few juicy picks for Saturday lined up and i am gong to be a wagering fool that day, gringos!

CK --
I have to disagree with you on your comment that Nevada is garbage. As a alum and avid fan I can tell you that we are not as bad as our record indicates and to the average viewer they would appear to be that way. You dont' win 5 conference titles in a row with a garbage team. However we have lost a lot and so this team is young starting 2 freshmen 2 sophmores and a sr. The talent is there to put it together but they consistency and shooting just hasn't been there which has beent he biggest killer to us. Losing McGee (Wizards) left a big hole in the middle that was not expected and was compounded by a transfer to of another of our bigs making size an issue.

Now NMSU may win this game but don't be fooled into thinking that it will be by 20 points or so just because or our record. They lack the focus and discipline to compete for 40 minutes and that kills them all the time. We have had a brutal schedule for a young team when you compare it to a lot of the teams in our conference so the W/L record can be decieving. I'm not going to lay a bunch of stats here but I can say I wouldn't be surprised to see a competitive game here tonight or an outright win..although I'm not expecting one. Losing to Idaho was horrible and coach will have them focused for this one so it will be competetive as we have a mini rivalry with these guys. This isn't a HS team as you make us sound although we may play like one sometimes. We do have an McDonalds all-american on our team and once he starts to really get it things will improve. I would fade them until they prove other but with this team you never know what kind of effort your going to get and I wouldn't just chalk this as an automatic W.

Sorry for the rant but I feel like I needed to set people's expectations on them before they start throwing money against. Also I will not be betting on this game because I have no idea what will happen tonight or which team will show up.

[ATB515]

Im on BetUS. I like the Clippers over 42.5 in the first half against San Antonio.

[Mr Handicapable]

NM State down to 4.5? Not sure why...cashed a nice ML small dog on NM State the other night!

Be afraid of Wright State...I live in Indy and they always give Butler trouble? They've covered 4 in a row and won 3 SU vs the Bulldogs! Wright is on a winning streak themselves I think? If it climbs above 10 w/my book I'm taking Wright!

[Mr Handicapable]

Any team in the NBA would be retarded to trade for Tinsley! PacMan Jones of the NBA w/a flat jumper and a sh*t attitude? I wish they could pull it off somehow since Bird refuses to buy out his contract!

[cocknocker]

Mr. Handicapable,

i agree, but Tinsley still has value despite his sordid past. But Bird is basically letting him collect free money. Might as well get something in return for his roster spot, you know what I'm sayin'.

[cocknocker]

Damn, the Spurs line went up instead of going down. I took them at -12. The line went up to 13 against all of the Clips money.

[cocknocker]

The line will be 14 or 14.5 by gametime, fellas, get the play in now so that you won't have to buy points.

[Dexter]

i cant wait for this frickin football game tonight.....

[DaChozen1]

Question

Is there a good site to use that will show the % of what all the public is betting on each game? I use covers.com but i think it only lists the people that use that site and not overall in general. Id like to see which games are having Reverse Line Movement. Any suggestions.

[zackattack]

Todays ESPN bottom line go against picks!
espn makes a point of showing the scores of the last games played between nyk/dal and lac/sa
they note last game dal beat knicks by 10 and that spurs only won by 3over clips .......so if i were to go against what i think they are trying to tell me, this would back both of CK'S picks in the nba......knicks +8 and sa -13

college baskets and nhl picks:

espn points out that xavier has 16 straight wins in conference play.....i'll take stl +15.5
espn points out in cbb that butler has lost 7 of last 10 meetings with wright st.....take butler -10
espn touts iowa tonight in cbb since they have beaten minn 4 straight and 7of 8 at home.....take minn +2.5
espn touts minn in nhl going for their 3rd straight shutout so i will take the flyers -160
espn writes that phx has been shut out in 2 straight games and 3 of 5 so i will back phx here phx -155
espn points out that the islanders have lost 13 straight road games.......i will take isles but with +1.5 goals
espn points out that anaheim goalie has allowed only 1 goal last 2 games......give me la kings -125
espn touts det as being 4-0-1 last 5 at home against dal......so i will take dal ml and +1.5 goals
espn touts carolina's 4 game win streak.......so i will take florida -120
ok this reverse espn plays are still new but did go 5-1 last night ....if you like any of these i would suggest going small until we get a better feel, especially in the nhl when taking big dogs like isles and dal

thats it for now.......i will look for more college plays as the afternoon goes on

[africanroller]

Lets go Gators, Lets Go Gators

Destruction of the big 12 tonight

And thats coming from a fan and not a better

[Dexter]

"

[cocknocker]

zackattack my boy, you may be on to something here. This is starting to look like some things that I can make small plays on with my third account. What's funny is that I used that same determination when formulating my Butler play. It looked strange that they were all of a sudden favored by double digits in today's game. WTF do I know? Hey, hey hey!

GO ESPNFADERS!

[cocknocker]

Man that spread for the Gators is doing exactly what I said it would do and it is now up to 6 ladies and fellers. This game may get out of hand quickly after the break.

[Smogs]

Guys, the level of info in this forum is astonishing, i've played new mexico and ny knicks and the under 212pts in the knicks game, all in singles. even if i dont come out in profit tonite, thanks for putting so much effort into the forum

[Dana4U]

NCAA Gaming

Are you planning on using this thread or starting a college thread in the NCAAB forum?

stakagrp,

You are correct. The Thunder will get an insane amount of points in that game, and when you couple that with the blowout loss to theT-Wolves, the public will take Houton in record numbers. I estimate that the Rockets will be favored by double digits, and have at least 70% of the public on their side; Bettors who will forget how Houston has cost them so much money going 2-7 ats. What i find interesting is that the Rockets are alternating ats covers in thier last 4 games...obviously we all know that they covered in their last game...Houston is 1-4 ats in games where they have been a favorite of more than 8 points...

I am surprised that joanapoker is the only one who spoke up about the impending blowout on tap this evening of New Mexico State over Nevada. This is more a pick against Nevada than a pick for New Mexico State. I don't really know how good (though I do know that they are good)New Mexico State is, but i do know that Nevada is garbage. And just for the record, I will be playing college hoops on Saturday during the day. We are in the conference now, and I have a pretty good guage on what to expect from the teams now, and the averages are set in stone. Look for me to start playing some of these college games straight. I have quite a few juicy picks for Saturday lined up and i am gong to be a wagering fool that day, gringos!

[cocknocker]

I will be using this thread, Dana4u.

[Ludovike]

.......so if i were to go against what i think they are trying to tell me, this would back both of CK'S picks in the nba......knicks +8 and sa -13

This conspiracy theory is scary
But if it backs CKs picks
why not try some illuminati medicine

Knicks +8
Spurs -13


Elite Should Profit Next

Thanks zackattack!