Another good day pal well done. Boston was a very good value today and had control for most of the game. Heat were a bit dissappointing excpecially after they started so well. What are you leaning to tommorow? I really like Washington @ $2.02 and I rekon Portland will give the kings a good shake tommrow.
-
Comment -
Great work on a tough day.. well done mate.
Killing it!Comment -
Daily thoughts
Firstly today the public took a hit ATS losing 6 of the 8 games.
wizards @ bobcats
Winless Wizards coming up against a Bobcats team who are coming off a big win against Dallas. Two trash teams here but the important note is that the Wizards are winless but this doesn't warrant a big enough angle. Match up wise I think Kemba Walker could be an issue for the Wizards however although AJ Price might not match Walkers scoring he definitely gets the team involved and has some nice assists. Beal could potentially have a break out game here, i don't see him having an issues getting open and having good looks. MKG is a great defensive presence however the combination of Booker and Okfor will provide equal defensive pressure for the Wizards. Honestly this game is a coin flip in my opinion, both teams are average and there is no huge mismatch anywhere on the court, both teams benches are average. I like quite a few players on the Bob Cats though, Walker definitely looks to be turning a corner this season, Ben Gordon off the bench can be huge. I can't really make a decision on this game, the Bobcats do appear to be trending upwards but I cant forget how bad they were last season, the Wizards have had some close games so far this season against great opponents and I have no doubt if they play the way they did against Boston tomorrow they'll win.
Knicks @ Magic
Love the Knicks here, I will most likely ride them ATS until Amare is back, ive said this for awhile now and will stick to it. There are so many things about this that I enjoy, firstly the Magic do not have an advantage anywhere in this matchup. The only position you could argue is Affalo over Brewer but that will be really minimal unless Affalo has a break out game. Every where else the Magic are out matched greatly and even more so on the bench. Anthony has no defensive threat to worry about, I am comfortable with him being able to do as he likes offensively and dominate the game. Chandler should be strong enough down low to combat the Magic bigs as long as he avoids early foul trouble. JR Smith has been huge for the Knicks and he will continue this here against the Magic whos secondary unit will have NO answers for him. Basically this game is for the Knicks to lose, extremely poor shooting will be the only reason the Knicks dont cover here in my opinion. The Magic are on a 4 game losing streak after starting the season 2-0, I think they were lucky in their first two wins as they were against teams that had new offensive rotations and they were simply playing off adrenalin. In all four losses the Magic bench has been absolutely dominated they are -64 points against opposition bench in their last 4 losses. Arguably Knicks have the deepest bench out of any opponent they have faced, I believe this trend will continue and their bench will get decimated and help the cover.
Raps @ Pacers
The Raps are a mess, after playing a triple OT at home they come to face Indiana a team that has been one of the biggest underperformers thus far. I thought the Pacers would flourish without Granger who reminds me a bit of Joe Johnson for the Hawks last season. I feel the Raptors will be in trouble in this game coming off a b2b OT and having to face an athletic side like the Pacers. Lowry again will not play, the Raptors are 0-4 since Lowry's injury and have not won a road game. The Pacers have had some terrible results, they have burned me a couple times already but I expect them to turn it around and be highly motivated to put together a great game to give themselves some confidence. Paul George will have a great game and Hibbert should be able to come out of his offensive slunmp as well against the Rookie C Valanciunas. The line is huge and it will be extremely ballsy to trust Indiana here but I have faith in this side.Comment -
Thanks pal, and thanks for checking in constantly and supporting me. Boston really was the epitome of value and a classic example of how little matchups within the game are really key when picking sides (Rondo v Nate). Washington is a tough bet, they are so bad but have had some close games against some solid opponents. Portland are quite bad away from the Rose Garden but that been said a tough loss tonight and a potential win on the road against a lowly Kings side could be enough motivation, Aldridge should have a field day and Lillard with height advantage over Isiah should get some nice looks. Cousins is out 1 more right? I'm leaning heavily on Knicks/Pacers right now.Comment -
nice write ups,
whats your thoughts on the spurs/lakers? sportsbet has lakers as favs but without nash/blake out (havent seen much of the other PG) and spurs just have parker questionable which is big but spurs are so deep.
im leaning spurs but still thinking about staying awayComment -
Thanks mate, i usually do in-depth write ups about the games i feel i can see an angle one or interest me...As a Laker fan sometimes i find it hard to bet without my heart and I am cautious when I play them. I think it's extremely difficult to get an accurate view on the Lakers right now as they have only beaten bad teams. Firstly, I can assure you Parker will play tomorrow - where are you getting your info from I advise you use rotoworld.com they are the front runners in the most recent and accurate reports on players. I believe Tony was rested especially for this game and 'flu' was just an excuse for the fans. Spurs are deep and a great side no matter what court they play on, their depth is worrying for an Laker backers who can most definitely expect the Spurs bench to out score the Laker bench who for whatever reason just look horrible. I honestly thought Meeks/Jamison would be great off the bench for us but they have been quite poor, the only bench performer is Hill right now he is great - such a hustler. Spurs are notorious regular season studs who blow teams out with ease, they also have a superior coach in this match up as D'Antoni will not be there. This allows the Spurs a great advantage with such depth and a coach that can make adjustments mid game is huge - if the Lakers get on a run i can see Pop calling to hack dwight every offensive possession. A comforting thing about the Spurs is that they are so deep in every position and they also have a really strong 3 point shooting ability, it is almost a guarantee the Spurs will cover when their 3 point men are on. Contrast this to the Lakers poor 3 point shooting and poor bench you already have two areas that could cause issues for the Lakers. For the Lakers to win this the bench needs to be productive, Dwight needs to hit more than 50% FT and Gasol needs to constantly be active offensively whether it is passing or hitting those open 17ft jumpers. We know Kobe will get his and he has been in an efficient form, he's a character - he's happy with the decision on the coach he might explode here? The Lakers as a whole might step up in this situation, that feeling of a new start, fresh...that is an angle you COULD go on but are you really wanting to put your money on that? Wouldn't you rather put your money on the complete team that has chemistry and is well coached? One angle I do like is the UNDER simply because Kobe has been clearly irritated by media speculation about the Lakers D under the new coach. As far as my brain is concerned I dont feel comfortable telling myself 'it'll happen soon' in regards to this new Laker team, Steve Blake will have an absolute horror day trying to guard Tony off the pick and roll and if TP9's jump shot is on you can pretty much kiss this game good bye. I don't know if this helps anyone but this is my current thoughts on the game.Last edited by therealdealau; 11-13-12, 01:21 AM.Comment -
Great stuff today mate, keep at em
loving these write ups too they give me some insight aswell, always good to have an outside view!
Comment -
I'm new to sports betting and loving this thread! Well done realdeal.Comment -
Glad someone had a positive unit day today. I was very suspicious of the OKC/Detroit line but didn't have the balls to pull the trigger. Nice picks.
Comment -
@trd his is amazing stuff bro I can't believe my eyes wen I read your write ups lol keep it up. I love the analysis on the lakers spurs game I think the bench is the key here for sure, spurs can pile the 3's on so quickly and I think that's what will really hurt the lakers. Looking forward to your play tommorowComment -
Thanks pal. Me too but I had to play it, I'm just sad I couldnt have pulled the trigger on a 2x play on it. Lets both cash tomorrow and keep it rolling man.Comment -
Cheers pal, I think my analysis so far have been ok a couple ones completely wrong, but I'll live with that. Spurs are definitely a threat from 3 point land, I can't decide whether or not to play the Spurs though. Will see how the line moves tomorrow. Ill be posting a couple early plays soon though.Comment -
Speaking of tomorrow I thought I'd get stuck into some research for tomorrows card and must say I was very surprised to see Bobcats -1.5 against the Wiz. I've got the line at -3.5, the bob kitty's have really impressed me this year and the wizards appear to be no different to last year. What say you?Comment -
thanks for your view on the lakers game, pretty much summed up my thoughts, i think spurs will take it but then again with all the laker drama and things like that, kobe could easily have a massive game
tomorrow, the only games i feeling strongly about are the knicks and pacers but then again later tonight i'll have a look what lines come out.
GJ on today, i went 3-3, really thought den would beat phx but then again you shouldnt bet against your team sometimes hahaComment -
TRD - Congrats so far on your season. It's an unbelievable effort. Also an Aussie checking in. Love your pre-game write ups.
Keep up the good work and I'll definitely coming in to contribute. Liking tha fact you feeling the Knicks tomorrow, definitely a match up advantage for NY.Comment -
Good work real deal. Some interesting points you raise about the depth of the bench in the SAS v LAL match. I too like the Spurs, but it definitely won't be a walk in the park.Comment -
Congrats on the hot start to the season Real Deal. Hitting +25 units this early is outstanding.
I'm liking the Cavs +6.5 against Brooklyn. I think Nets are the Rockets of the East, talented but lacking discipline & leadership. Looking forward to Deron vs Irving, it'll be fun to watch so anything could happen if either of them get hot. Also think a total play on the over 196.0 might be worth a shot.Comment -
I am unfortunately but this season I feel the team has wonderful depth. Only problem is Amare and how that will change the chemistry of the team - which it will.
I locked the Knicks in before I bounce to bed. I expect it to go to 7-7.5 which is a shit load for a road favourite.Comment -
Knicks -6.5 (2x)Comment -
let's get it man, doublin up i like it.
can't see this being pretty at all for my magic unfortunatelyComment -
really great day today TRD looking forward to tommorrows quick hits.Comment -
Pacers -9 (1x)Comment -
There will be no Magic in Orlando today as the Knicker-bockers are in town...Comment
